I did a check. This was a single day Sunday poll which can easily deflate the % of the most conservative voters especially if done during the day which it was. Calls were made from 1 pm to 9 pm. So this poll was conducted at the worst possible time in a way that excluded some of the most conservative voters which are church goers. I’m convinced this is an outlier. We need a new poll out quick or this thing is going to kill us.
Could be TEA is learning that not responding or even better, lying to pollsters messes up the RAT vote fraud calculus.
Thanks for the info, that explains the large gap. Even throwing that out leaves Cucinelli around 7 points down in the RCP average, but that’s a gap that can be closed.