Big difference between Presidential elections and off-cycle state elections. Turnout will be much lower -- which usually is to the benefit of the Republican candidate.
In the 2011 state senate elections, the GOP had 200,000 more votes for its candidates statewide than did the ‘Rats, even though the GOP had 11 uncontested district victories. The ‘Rat redistricting of the senate allowed them to achieve a 20-20 tie.
Here in northern Virginia, there are maybe 4 or 5 House of Delegates races (out of 35 or so seats in the region) that are competitive The lack of competitive races with local political operations is not going to help Terry McAwful.