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How the U.S. Shale Boom Is Splitting OPEC Apart
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/10/26/how-the-us-shale-boom-is-splitting-opec-apart.aspx ^ | October 26, 2013 | Arjun Sreekumar

Posted on 10/26/2013 7:46:56 PM PDT by ckilmer

For decades, OPEC nations have, for the most part, enjoyed a good living. As long as oil prices remain high, they can recover billions of barrels of oil at relatively low cost and sell it to the rest of the oil-thirsty world.

But the North American shale oil boom is shaking things up for the cartel. In fact, the surge in U.S. and Canadian oil production resulting from the application of new drilling technologies threatens to reduce OPEC's share of the global oil market this year to its lowest level in more than a decade.

Does that imply gloom and doom for all OPEC countries? Hardly. That's because the impact of the North American energy boom isn't spread evenly among the group. While some members may only experience a slight financial impact, others could be in big trouble. Let's take a closer look.

A tale of two OPEC members To explore this growing divide within OPEC, perhaps no two member countries offer examples as polarized as Saudi Arabia and Nigeria.

The kingdom is clearly the top dog; it produced nearly 10 million barrels of crude oil per day last year, making it the second-leading global producer, behind only Russia. Indeed, Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister and OPEC's de facto leader, recently said that Saudi Arabia welcomes the U.S. shale oil boom because the supply increase could help stabilize the global oil market.

But the Nigerians aren't so upbeat. And rightfully so. At a conference in the nation's capital city of Abuja earlier this year, officials expressed grave concerns about the country's falling oil exports. "Shale oil and the increase in their gas production is already affecting our exports to the United States," said Diezani Alison-Madueke, the nation's oil minister.

Indeed, Nigerian crude oil exports to the U.S. have plunged by about 50% since July 2010, displaced by oil of a similar quality gushing from U.S. shale plays such as North Dakota's Bakken, where companies continue to report staggering growth in production.

Kodiak Oil & Gas (NYSE: KOG ) , an oil and gas junior with operations focused almost exclusively in the Bakken, said its oil production grew by 250% last year, while Northern Oil & Gas (NYSEMKT: NOG ) and and Halcon Resources (NYSE: HK ) , two other Bakken-focused operators, saw output grow by 93.4% and 173.2%, respectively.

As a result of this surge in U.S. oil production, several refiners have virtually eliminated foreign imports of Nigerian light oil. For instance, Valero (NYSE: VLO ) has replaced all light oil imports with domestically produced oil at its Gulf Coast and Memphis refineries, while Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX ) recently said it expects to process 100% North American crudes at its refineries nationwide within "a couple of years."

OPEC's varying production costs But that's not all. Not only is Nigeria at risk because of plummeting crude exports, but it's also not nearly as well equipped as Saudi Arabia to handle lower oil prices. That's because breakeven costs of oil production vary widely within the cartel, with some countries able to get by with much lower oil prices than others.

According to estimates by PFC Energy, a Washington-based energy research and consulting firm, Nigeria requires an average price of $87 a barrel to fund its import bill this year, while Saudi Arabia needs to fetch just under $70 a barrel to make ends meet.

Given that oil and gas exports account for roughly 80% of Nigeria's government revenues and more than 90% of foreign exchange earnings, that leaves Nigeria extremely vulnerable to a sharp and sustained decline in global crude oil prices. In fact, the IMF recently noted that if oil prices fall to between $80 and $85 per barrel (as an annual average), it would wipe out Nigeria's Excess Crude Account balances within a year.

But that's not to say the Saudis wouldn't be hurt from a sustained decline in oil prices, either. While they're less vulnerable because of lower breakeven costs, their petroleum sector still accounts for roughly 80% of budget revenues, 45% of GDP, and 90% of export earnings. Indeed, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, chairman of Kingdom Holdings and nephew of King Abdullah, has warned that excessive reliance on oil revenues makes the kingdom particularly vulnerable to oil price shocks.

"If the price of oil was to decline to US$78 a barrel there will be a gap in our budget, and we will either have to borrow or tap our reserves," he said. "Saudi Arabia has SAR2.5 trillion in external reserves, and unfortunately, the return on this is 1 to 1.5 percent. We are still a nation that depends on the oil and this is wrong and dangerous."

The bottom line The U.S. shale revolution is exacerbating an existing divide between OPEC member countries. While Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have the financial resources to cope with lower oil prices, countries such as Nigeria and Angola desperately need high oil prices to balance their national budgets. Yet no OPEC member, not even Saudi Arabia, is immune to a sustained oil-price collapse.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Canada; Mexico; US: North Dakota
KEYWORDS: angola; canada; carbontax; energy; kenyanbornmuzzie; mexico; nigeria; northdakota; opec; saudiarabia; shalegas; shaleoil; venezuela

1 posted on 10/26/2013 7:46:56 PM PDT by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer

Saudi Arabia is not America’s friend.


2 posted on 10/26/2013 7:48:47 PM PDT by PGR88
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To: ckilmer

Due to their recent squacking, I’d guess Saidu Arabia is getting hit harder than this article implies.


3 posted on 10/26/2013 7:50:51 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: ckilmer
I wonder how Venezuela is doing (other than being a few years ahead of us in having socialism destroy their economy). They relied on exporting to us because few can or will refine their high sulfur crude oil.
4 posted on 10/26/2013 7:51:15 PM PDT by KarlInOhio (Everyone get online for Obamacare on 10/1. Overload the system and crash it hard!)
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To: ckilmer
Our economy should be booming.
5 posted on 10/26/2013 7:51:51 PM PDT by Red Dog #1
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To: PGR88

None of these oil-producing extortionists have any sympathy from me. Let them rot.


6 posted on 10/26/2013 7:52:58 PM PDT by hal ogen (First Amendment or Reeducation Camp?)
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To: PGR88

I would like to see the Saudi’s eat their damned oil.Now the Western oil exporting countries should return the favor and destroy the OPEC cartel nation economies.

Lets see if Allah bails them out.


7 posted on 10/26/2013 7:53:06 PM PDT by puppypusher
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To: ckilmer; thackney

PING for comments.


8 posted on 10/26/2013 7:57:10 PM PDT by rockinqsranch (Dems, Libs, Socialists, call 'em what you will. They ALL have fairies livin' in their trees.)
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To: ckilmer
Yes, the shale boom is so brutal to the saudis...they are only getting $100 a barrel even with all that record US production. Someone is getting screwed, and it isn't the arabs.
9 posted on 10/26/2013 7:57:44 PM PDT by Orangedog (An optimist is someone who tells you to 'cheer up' when things are going his way)
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To: ckilmer

I sure do wish that with all this oil/gasoline being produced in the US they would get our prices at the pump down. The cost of operating our vehicles is way too high - at least for me and everyone I know.


10 posted on 10/26/2013 7:58:23 PM PDT by elpadre (AfganistaMr Obama said the goal was to "disrupt, dismantle and defeat al-hereQaeda" and its allies.)
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To: Red Dog #1

Yep...all of the mixed economic data that leaves it overall stagnant indicates it is economy that wants to boom...it just can’t due to Obama’s policies which damage the economy.


11 posted on 10/26/2013 8:00:44 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: ckilmer

So this could impact the Saudi’s mosque/terrorist training site building fund?


12 posted on 10/26/2013 8:01:32 PM PDT by Clay Moore ("In politics, stupidity is not a handicap." Napoleon Bonaparte)
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To: ckilmer

This is good news.


13 posted on 10/26/2013 8:07:29 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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To: Republican Wildcat
No Obama? Canadian oil flowing to the US, two or three times more shale oil & gas, no “green energy” scams, no ham fisted healthcare frauds, maybe tax reform, less Federal regulation uncertainty, the Fed no print $80 Billion a month, interest rates not running below inflation, deficits halved,.....
14 posted on 10/26/2013 8:09:26 PM PDT by Red Dog #1
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To: Clay Moore

Not till prices fall below $70-$80@barrel.

Right now. I’m not so sure that falling prices are advantageous to the USA. Because as long as oil prices remain high, oil production will rise really really fast—as it is now by 1 million barrels @ day per year.

That is, right now the most important thing is for the USA to become energy independent.

Once energy independence is gained, then its time to start forcing the price of oil down. That’s about 5 years out.

Actually, oil prices are set internationally. For now, rising US production and falling demand—is being met internationally by falling production and rising demand.

So energy supply and demand are roughly in balance.


15 posted on 10/26/2013 8:09:40 PM PDT by ckilmer ( e)
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To: ckilmer
I hope to live long enough to see the US not buy one drop of their stinking Saudi oil...

Let them eat their sand and camel dung...

Freaking retrograde bearded savages...

16 posted on 10/26/2013 8:11:38 PM PDT by Popman (Liberal wars are about killing people for humanitarian reasons...)
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To: ckilmer

Nigeria needs to persue contracts with China


17 posted on 10/26/2013 8:11:45 PM PDT by jyro (French-like Democrats wave the white flag of surrender while we are winning)
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To: KarlInOhio
I wonder how Venezuela is doing (other than being a few years ahead of us in having socialism destroy their economy). They relied on exporting to us because few can or will refine their high sulfur crude oil.

Venezuela owns 100% of Citgo and has their own captive refineries in the USA (Corpus Christi, TX, Lake Charles, LA, Lemont, IL).

18 posted on 10/26/2013 8:17:24 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: Ignorance On Parade)
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To: ckilmer; mickie
I'm amazed that Obama and his evil minions haven't found a way to stifle the North American oil boom through ecology regulations, war with Canada or whatever.

He better appoint Algore as Stifle Czar real quick before the U.S. becomes (gasp) energy independent.

Leni

19 posted on 10/26/2013 8:18:53 PM PDT by MinuteGal
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

Thanks ckilmer.
...the surge in U.S. and Canadian oil production resulting from the application of new drilling technologies threatens to reduce OPEC's share of the global oil market this year to its lowest level in more than a decade... While some members may only experience a slight financial impact, others could be in big trouble... Saudi Arabia... produced nearly 10 million barrels of crude oil per day last year, making it the second-leading global producer, behind only Russia... Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister and OPEC's de facto leader, recently said that Saudi Arabia welcomes the U.S. shale oil boom because the supply increase could help stabilize the global oil market... Nigerians... expressed grave concerns about the country's falling oil exports... requires an average price of $87 a barrel to fund its import bill this year ...countries such as Nigeria and Angola desperately need high oil prices to balance their national budgets. Yet no OPEC member, not even Saudi Arabia, is immune to a sustained oil-price collapse.
P.J. O'Rourke (writing in "Automobile" magazine years ago) noted that the entire non-petroleum exports of the OPEC nations in the Middle East, combined, don't equal Finland's. I'm sure that hasn't improved with age.


20 posted on 10/26/2013 8:21:31 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (http://www.freerepublic.com/~mestamachine/)
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OPEC : OPEC Share of World Crude Oil Reserves

OPEC : OPEC Share of World Crude Oil Reserves
(probably shouldn't use these OPEC numbers as the only source; also not a bad idea to compare these figures with populations, to see the disparity in per capita income)


21 posted on 10/26/2013 8:26:13 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (http://www.freerepublic.com/~mestamachine/)
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To: Popman

oil independence is about 5 years off.


22 posted on 10/26/2013 8:45:07 PM PDT by ckilmer ( e)
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To: Red Dog #1

It is in Texas.


23 posted on 10/26/2013 8:50:44 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: ckilmer

Fracking is expensive. Currently it cost 70 to 90 dollars a barrel to produce. Increase production will lower the cost substantially.


24 posted on 10/26/2013 8:54:49 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: PGR88

Now we know why Saudi wanted Syria to escalate. The price of oil would have skyrocketed.


25 posted on 10/26/2013 8:56:42 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: PGR88

SA can always fall back on their Whabbist exports....


26 posted on 10/26/2013 9:04:48 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: ckilmer
We are still a nation that depends on the oil and this is wrong and dangerous."

No, what's dangerous is the jihadi 7th century barbarians in your dirthole of a country, #ss##l#. Perhaps if after 4000 years you'd moved beyond wiping your backside bare handed and stopped exporting terrorism, I might give a #### about your plight and well being.

But, since that isn't the case, it looks like for you there's only oil for dinner; good news is there's plenty of it.

27 posted on 10/26/2013 9:35:49 PM PDT by Repeat Offender (What good are conservative principles if we don't stand by them?)
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To: ckilmer
The bottom line The U.S. shale revolution is exacerbating an existing divide between OPEC member countries.

.. and let's deal with our domestic enemies as well as foreign enemies.

I think it can be argued that "green energy" as a replacement for oil is a devastatingly wasteful daydream; we must "drill now!" to stop the Western world and friends' dependence upon the Middle East;

and all the aging 1960s Marxist-Alinsky campus radical, psycho spoiled brats and their ideological issue, hate-America pukes in the Administration, academia, MSM, entertainment, et al -- arguably the Establishment -- can all go to hell; voluntarily or we'll send them there.

It's our turn to "Bring it all down, man!"

28 posted on 10/26/2013 9:41:00 PM PDT by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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To: PGR88

F’*! OPEC and the oil tankers they rode in on.


29 posted on 10/27/2013 1:18:42 AM PDT by Stingray (Stand for the truth or you'll fall for anything.)
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To: puppypusher

“I would like to see the Saudi’s eat their damned oil. Now the Western oil exporting countries should return the favor and destroy the OPEC cartel nation economies.”

Right you are.


30 posted on 10/27/2013 1:24:51 AM PDT by Altenkrug
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To: ckilmer

Saudi oil sheikhs are one thing, but the world was for certain not ready for Nigerian oil barons.

Problem solved.


31 posted on 10/27/2013 1:36:39 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: MinuteGal

I’m amazed that Obama and his evil minions haven’t found a way to stifle the North American oil boom through ecology regulations, war with Canada or whatever.

He better appoint Algore as Stifle Czar real quick before the U.S. becomes (gasp) energy independent.


As I understand it, the EPA and the Interior department HAVE been trying their damnest to stifle the Oil shale boom and fracking in general.

Their a bit stymied though in that most of the surface land and mineral rights being used by the oil rigs is PRIVATELY owned and not Government owned as is the case in most of the west.

But give them time, I’m sure they’ll find a good reason to use Eminent Domain to steal it.


32 posted on 10/27/2013 4:14:46 AM PDT by The Working Man
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To: ckilmer

Pray tell, why are we cutting back more on purchases of Nigerian oil than Saudi oil? I’m inclined to tell them, “A plague on both your houses.”


33 posted on 10/27/2013 6:50:05 AM PDT by Berosus (I wish I had as much faith in God as liberals have in government.)
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To: jyro

LOL, you should see how the Chinese treated the workers, when they opened a mine in Zambia. It gave a new meaning to the term “neo-colonialsim.”


34 posted on 10/27/2013 6:53:45 AM PDT by Berosus (I wish I had as much faith in God as liberals have in government.)
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To: SunkenCiv

I don’t see Indonesia on the chart. Did they run out of oil?


35 posted on 10/27/2013 6:55:28 AM PDT by Berosus (I wish I had as much faith in God as liberals have in government.)
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To: ckilmer

Once again, despite the government, the private sector does more harm to our enemies than those who have sworn to defend us and the Constitution...


36 posted on 10/27/2013 7:17:12 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: elpadre

“I sure do wish that with all this oil/gasoline being produced in the US they would get our prices at the pump down. The cost of operating our vehicles is way too high - at least for me and everyone I know.”

The price of gasoline has been dropping even as oil was above $100/barrel. The cost is too high for every consumer. Place the blame with our wonderful government which is doing everything they can to derail cheaper energy


37 posted on 10/30/2013 7:12:01 PM PDT by Figment
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To: Figment

I’m just an old fashioned guy and remember the days when the higher the yield of my crop, the lower price I received. No they were not subsidy crops. I


38 posted on 10/30/2013 7:46:53 PM PDT by elpadre (AfganistaMr Obama said the goal was to "disrupt, dismantle and defeat al-hereQaeda" and its allies.)
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