Red Queen effect can make production slow down in a hurry

Fuel Fix ^ | October 30, 2013 | Jennifer Hiller

[thackney]

For now I tend to believe that oil in the ground came from dead plants and animals of earlier epochs.

If you look at geology information, you will find oil is associated with ancient water source and the sedimentation that accumulated underneath.

We can squeeze oil out of algae today. Is it really surprising when algae and the like is trapped under sediment away from a source of sufficient oxygen, it does not decompose into lots of H2O and CO2 like it would on the surface?

[thackney]

t is the accelerating speed & falling costs at which they can drill wells

Most of the accelerating speed of the number of oil wells drilled in the last few years was from rigs that were chasing natural gas are now chasing oil. The supply of natural gas rigs and the trained drilling crews and support equipment is now a small fraction of what it was 4~5 years ago.

[ckilmer]

The supply of natural gas rigs and the trained drilling crews and support equipment is now a small fraction of what it was 4~5 years ago.
...............
by this do you mean that there are fewer men and equipment in absolute numbers compared to 4~5 years ago or do you mean all the men & machines that can be used are being used so there is no extra capacity of men and machines to amp up production as there was 4~5 years ago

[thackney]

I mean there was a big transition of rigs and the folks that work and support them from Natural Gas to Oil.

There are currently 1,357 rigs chasing oil, 376 chasing gas (5 more unidentified), total 1,738 rigs.

Five years ago there was 376 rigs chasing oil, 1,428 chasing gas (6 more unidentified), total 1,760 rigs

Our growth in oil production has climbed while our natural gas production has flatten out.

I believe our oil production growth rate will continue as in the past 5 years is not possible without huge increases in oil prices.

It takes very little money to move an existing rig from natural gas to oil. It takes far more money to ramp up production of building rigs and all the associated equipment like hydro frac system to keep expanding oil drill like we have been doing.

[thackney]

Sorry, forgot the link for the data source on rig counts

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjA3NzUzfENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1

[MrB]

We have to understand that all the anti-”fossil fuels” arguments from the left aren’t about “using it up”.

These fuels are ENERGY, and affordable energy is the engine of free markets and liberty.

They can’t control people who have access to affordable energy.

[Mr. Jeeves]

A February report from the Post-Carbon Institute...

Ah, a reliable, unbiased source. :)

[thackney]

A February report from the Post-Carbon Institute said the Eagle Ford and North Dakota’s Bakken Shale would be part of a 10-year shale bubble.

I agree that the 10 yr time frame is overstated. But that is not the source of the rest of the data nor the analysis of this article.

[ckilmer]

I mean there was a big transition of rigs and the folks that work and support them from Natural Gas to Oil.

There are currently 1,357 rigs chasing oil, 376 chasing gas (5 more unidentified), total 1,738 rigs.

Five years ago there was 376 rigs chasing oil, 1,428 chasing gas (6 more unidentified), total 1,760 rigs
............
thats what eia rig counts show but consider what the radical fall off in the number natural a gas drillers has done to gas production

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3085528/posts?page=1