“Much of this would hinge on Israel’s perception of any Iranian threat yes? If they believe Iran is about to do something real foolhardy they may throw the kitchen sink at them without anyone firing a single shot. “
As whacko-crazy as Iran sounds, I don’t think Israel perceives them as being that crazy. Iran would most likely arm a third party actor with a nuke that could be assembled in Israel. But the Ayatollahs are probably not as suicidal as their religious adherents and probably Israel perceives this. Instead, the Ayatollahs will use their weapons for extortion. They will subjugate the entire middle east by threats much as North Korea on a much smaller scale extorts whatever they want from the west. NK has even sunk a warship with no response other than a strongly worded diplomatic note.
A nuke will probably explode someplace before Israel takes action. Once one has exploded the myth of their non-use will evaporate in the 3,000 degree heat. But whichever side uses them first will lose the resulting “peace” in the long term. The inability to predict what the post nuclear world will look like will stay many a finger from “The Button.”
Unfortunately there are many who seem rapturous at the thought of self detonation and the more spectacular the better.That number is growing.Their so-called god drives them into the dust and their hatred of Israel through the roof.Somewhere in that seething sea of islam is the wrong person who will end up in the wrong place at the right time.It seems merely a matter of time.