Skip to comments.Cincinnati Must Face the Crisis that Sealed Detroitís Fate
Posted on 11/02/2013 4:16:53 AM PDT by Kaslin
Editor's Note: This column was co-authored by Prof. Richard Vedder, the Distinguished Professor of Economics Emeritus at Ohio University.
Cincinnati and Detroit are separated by barely more than 250 miles a five-hour drive at worst, or under an hour by plane. Despite this proximity, many Cincinnatians would prefer to believe that Detroits horrendous fiscal situation couldnt possibly hit their city. Not so fast.
As the largest bankrupt city in America, Detroit has seen its population drop by more than half, unemployment soar to well over double the national average, and services decline. This is what happens to a locality mired in $18.5 billion of debt.
No, Cincinnati is not in immediate danger of that degree of collapse. But as Ohioans with some 75 years of combined experience in public service and fiscal policy, we both strongly believe the City should learn a lesson from Detroit now before the seeds of such a crisis grow out of control.
Roughly half of Detroits debt is due to the excessively generous pension and health care plans for 20,000 Motor City retirees. Theyre not alone. The Pew Center found that 61 of Americas major cities had a total gap of $217 billion in unfunded pension and health care liabilities, and determined that ample benefits had been guaranteed to retirees without a viable way to manage the inevitably high long-term costs.
Cincinnati has been strained by bloated pensions for several years now; leaders appointed two task forces and created a Board of Trustees for overhauling the Citys retirement programs between 2007 and 2010. By 2011, that Board was warning of pension fund insolvency for City workers within 21 years Although the City Council instituted reforms in response, more recent news indicates there is a great deal of urgent work still to be done.
In June of this year, Ohio Auditor David Yost sent a letter to City officials, detailing an $862 million unfunded pension liability as of the end of 2012. That works out to over $6,500 for every household in the City. Other estimates, using different financial assumptions, put the total much higher and those numbers dont even include potentially tens of thousands more per Cincinnati household from state-level government pensions. It is therefore no wonder that, on July 15, Moodys downgraded the City of Seven Hills general obligation bonds due to budgetary pressure from pension contributions.
In the early 2000s, the Citys pension plan was nearly 100 percent funded. But thanks to poor investments (including the 2008 market crash) and policy miscues, the funding now sits at a paltry 61 percent and the debt is accelerating. Between 2012 and 2013, the unfunded liability rose by nearly one-fifth. According to a consultant for the Cincinnati Retirement Systems Trustees, if left unaddressed the burden will only worsen through 2042, when it will be a mere 40 percent funded.
By doing nothing on pension reform, the most at-risk Cincinnatians stand to lose out first. As the public pension program devours an ever-greater share of receipts, government services are almost certain to be starved. The pressure to raise taxes will also be greater, making the City a more expensive place in which to reside. As Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel famously declared, Without pension reform, well be forced to mortgage our childrens future to pay for our past. Meanwhile, City workers themselves would have less certainty for their own financial futures.
Next week, Cincinnati voters have a chance to address these pension problems at the ballot box. Issue 4, a Charter Amendment Petition, would enroll new City employees in a defined contribution plan, rather than the current defined benefit plan. The amendment would also put in place contribution caps for the City, keep cost-of-living adjustments honest, and stipulate that City employees do not receive paychecks and retirement checks at the same time. These common-sense reforms would be a step in the right direction, and would help ensure that the City does not follow Detroit down the road to financial ruin.
Cincinnatis downgrade and growing pension debt should serve as a warning sign to lawmakers and taxpayers: without major reforms such as transitioning to defined contribution plans, the City faces a daunting road ahead. Fortunately, a saner course is available, one in which everybody, in and out of government, regardless of political party, has a vital stake. Issue 4 may not be perfect, but we urge Cincinnatians to consider the cost of delay. Time is not on the side of this great city.
Private corporations have done away with defined benefit retirement plans. They did so because the law governing corporations now says they have to be funded. Companies can no longer borrow from those funds and then go bankrupt. Cities should be required to do the same.
NJ is facing the same problems as Detroit, and seeing the same consequences: flight of the best & brightest workers and companies, deterioration of services as current revenue is drained by people who retired decades ago, and the out-of-sync high wages of public employees. We’ve laid off a lot of cops due to tax constraints (while teachers still get oversized raises each year), and the services are increasingly consumed by those contributing nothing (schools and police/fire protection being the most visible). Childless white taxpayers have little incentive to stay, simply being handed a bill for subsidizing the permanent urban underclass and illegal aliens.
It’s the same story everywhere: politicians agree to exorbitant employee benefits to get the public employee union votes. Then the politicians underfund the pensions to buy votes. See a pattern? CAREER POLITICIANS ARE THE PROBLEM.
We need term limits. We need the end of vote buying by career politicians. We need an end to career politicians. We need term limits.
Seen this coming for decade and all of sudden it’s a crisis?
Instead of saying GOVERNMENT retirees. Media can't bring themselves to admit who's to blame.
But who agrees to this? Who signs the agreements? Politicians. Why? To get re-elected. Incumbency itself is the single most corrupting factor in our entire political system. Understand the “why” and you have a chance to fix the problem.. Getting mad at some retired building inspector or an old cop doesn’t solve anything.
The problem is career politicians trying to save their phony baloney jobs.
When you look at Social Security you see the pension plans.
Pensioners paid their share of the pension plan and they were funded.
Then the country started borrowing from SS and cities started borrowing from pension plans.
The interest rates fell and the pension plans started losing. As did Social Security, then like the Feds the cities started having to budget their plans.
Now who gets the blame. The Feds or the cities who ran the plans badly and borrowed from them or the pensioners.??
The Pensioners are called thieves for bargaining in good faith.
“We need an end to career politicians. We need term limits.”
What people need to do is get up off their butts and attend city and county council meetings. Most of these meetings are never attended by citizens, and these crooked politicians do whatever they want. The Founders warned that liberty requires vigilance. Citizens have completely failed in that simple duty. Now reap the whirlwind.
It seems I read over and over that many pension plans are not funded.
How were these plans originally set up and what happened between then and now that they are no longer viable. ?
I agree. I proudly can lay claim to attending, and writing about, local government in a three-parish (county) area in North Louisiana for the past 4 1/2 years.
I guess it's a step in the right direction...only applies to NEW city employees means they either need to really ramp up the attrition rate or actually make meaningful reforms like move ALL city employees now to such a plan
After all....a government job (city) pretty much means a forever job...
Cincinnati USED to be a very nice conservative city....then they elected Jerry Springer as mayor...who wrote a CHECk to a Prostitute while NEWLY married, and the stupid Democrats RE-ELECTED HIM, and it’s been down hill ever since.
It also makes the politician 'popular' with the people he works with - ON OUR DIME. Might be time to change the incentives.
MEGA DITTOS TO THAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Completely irresponsible spending and it seems that almost no one is immune.
The township next to mine built a “community fitness center” that no one but a majority of the township council members wanted. It cost a couple million to build and is largely the result of keeping up with the Joneses. The people are angry about it but they are the ones who couldn’t be bothered to pay attention.
I’m fortunate to live in a destitute township that has little to pay for because people are engaged. Our biggest problem is being stuck in a larger school district that spends money like its going out of style.
All things in life have an expiration date, including America.
... and the Phillipines.
All that talk and nobody will MOUTH that it’s the Unions at fault..
Unions picking citys clean like vultures..
These people have been pretty much BRAIN WASHED...
The answer is quite easy to solve... too....
Declare WAR on the UNIONS.. they are indeed a disease..
and in most places a political disease.. and an economic disease..
First; dissolve ALL City and State employee unions..
Second; demand ALL federal employees in the State have a choice.. Union or not.. OR GET OUT..
Third; pass a State Law making Obamacare ILLEGAL..
The biggest problem with Detroit was not only the automobile industry leaving the city, but the shockingly corrupt governments under Coleman Young and Kwame Kilpatrick as Mayors of the city. Not to mention the undue influence of Manuel “Matty” Moroun, the owner of the Ambassador Bridger, who effectively blocked any attempts at improving the connections between Detroit and Windsor, ON until only very recently.
>>As the largest bankrupt city in America, Detroit has seen its population drop by more than half<<
Power of the cities over the rest of the state is diminished. What’s wrong with that? Who knows, states considered Communist strongholds will become more Conservative.
There should be a population limit of 1 million; no need for more in any city. When you reach the limit, start building another city.
Social Security was NEVER actuarially sound. It is NOT insurance. It is not a retirement system. It is a transfer program, taking money from the young and transferring it to the old. WHEN THE OLD OUTNUMBER THE YOUNG IT BREAKS DOWN. Which is what we face now.
It's only a crisis because the politicians of all stripes have been kicking that can down the road for generations. Now we all can see that barrycade at the end of the road.
High time. We need George Washington—and then he should go back to the farm—and take the rest with him.
I wonder if Ted Cruz will be the next conservative to be brought back into line by the establishment. I hear that meetings have started.
Side note: PUBLIC EMPLOYEE UNIONS SHOULD BE OUTLAWED.
There is the problem right there. The City should find where these people and companies are and make them pay their fair share.
The Pensioners are called thieves for bargaining in good faith.
Those that will ultimately pay the bill are not represented. Perhaps rather than have politicians deal with the unions, all labor agreements would have to be approved by the voters.
(And don’t tell me the elected officials that sign off on these deals represent the taxpayers. Once they take money from the unions there exist a conflict of interest.)
There is one other party that deserves some blame in all this, the news media.
Every time there is a labor dispute, the news media takes labors side and demonize anyone that attempts to stand up to the unions.
This house of cards is build on a pile of sand within an earthquake zone. One of these days the entire structure will collapse.
You are correct. Citizen vigilance is key. However, concerned citizens planted in council chambers and even a few public comments at the lectern microphone, will NOT counter the influence of the developers, farmers, manufacturers, welfare pimps, community organizers, police and fire unions, bankers, power company, car dealers, sports teams, lobbyists, foreign leaders, other politicians, and their drinking buddies. ONLY BY REMOVING THE TEMPTATION OF ETERNAL POLITICAL POWER AND RICHES WILL THE SYSTEM BE CLEANSED. Believe me—I’ve seen it up close—there is no such thing as an uncorrupted career politician.
I agree with you about career politicians. Term limits and the power of recall goes a long way towards giving people back their government.
I disagree, though, about the influence of organizers and unions. A village council meeting packed with citizens can easily checkmate the power of lobbyists and organizers. If that fails, then your idea of castrating career politicians kicks in.
Both citizen involvement and exercising the power of the vote, including recall, will work.
As go Detroit and Cincinnati, so goes the US. It will simply take longer.
It’s not what goes on in the meeting that kills you—it’s what goes on at lunches, junkets, golf outings, adult entertainment venues, gulf stream fishing trips, stadium boxes, and conferences in Vegas.
So put all the government pension plan recipients on Obamacare and watch our money problems wash away...
“.. and the Phillipines.”
I guess you mean “Philippines”.
It is OK. I just as soon die here as anywhere.
Just do not let me die under an Obamination.
I’d venture to say that if one were to research who the person or persons responsible for management of the pension funds, they’d find a level of opulence rarely seen in government. Salaries, perks, working environment, personal power, and very likely kickbacks from invested fund managers.
Management, or more likely mismanagement, of the funds were the primary cause for losses.
You’re an outsider where you are, definitely “other.” It’s naive to think that you’ll be safe and unaffected should the collapse over which you’ve been gloating occur. If your winning ways here on FR are any indication, there are more than a few Filipinos who would quite happily barbeque you, absent any fear of repercussion. Think about that. And, have a nice day.
“its what goes on at lunches, junkets, golf outings, adult entertainment venues, gulf stream fishing trips, stadium boxes, and conferences in Vegas”
Yep, you hit another problem, Pete, which is the illegal government meeting. And believe me, the rats are constantly holding illegal meetings, but we have a solution for that called the open meetings law, which every state has.
With the open meetings law, you, as a citizen, can:
1. Have any law declared void that was a result of a meeting that violated the open meetings law. There is a time limit though.
2. Fine local politicians.
3. Throw them in jail.
4. File a lawsuit in court against individual office holders and be compensated all court costs.
This law will vary from state to state.
memphis isn’t far behind, they can’t even fund their own schools, which is why they gave up their charter to the county, threw all kind of monkey wrenches in to the works. All the small towns had county schools, while memphis had it’s own failure schools system. We are now at a 27 board member county wide board, and they want more reps. The entire plan is for memphis to run the entire county school system within 3 years. They did not count on the ‘tiny’ towns fighting back and demanding their own school systems. The state legislature backed them as it is now GOP controled as is the senate, we’d be in fairly good shape if not for the RINO governor halsam.
Sure, open meeting laws. That’s when you exceed the limit of allowed council members. At the local level, it’s usually a quorum. But I’m talking about the private meetings where the deals are REALLY made: the developer gets a promise his plans will be approved; the casino owner gets a garage taken by eminent domain; a car dealer gets some real estate rezoned. ALL BOUGHT AND PAID FOR. Of course, you will never see it.
In addition, the corruption is so subtle you may not even see it when you are sitting in the council chambers. For example, before council gets to the agenda, they usually have some consent items: no discussion. Just routine clerical matters, right? Wrong. Let’s say there is a fund transfer, or a contract certification, or setting a date for requests for proposals.
YOU MAY BE WITNESSING MISAPPROPRIATION OF FUNDS UNDER YOUR VERY NOSE and not recognize it. One trick they like is to pay for things out of special funds (a gray area, with lengthy justifications by smart bureaucrats) so they can preserve their general funds—to BUY VOTES, OF COURSE. The corruption is so pervasive and systemic, only a complete overhaul of the whole stinking mess will suffice. The SWAMP HAS TO BE DRAINED. Term limits.
“there are more than a few Filipinos who would quite happily barbeque you, absent any fear of repercussion. Think about that. And, have a nice day.”
Sorry, but that is a great misconception. You really need to do some research before making such asinine comments.
Milwaukee soon to follow
No, I made my observation based upon well-documented human behaviors when faced with starvation the world over. If and when long pig time comes to Cebu, you’ll be top of the list. Elderly loudmouthed American. Definitely not Pinoy. No big loss for them.
“Sure, open meeting laws. Thats when you exceed the limit of allowed council members.’
Nope. That’s not what open meetings laws are about. You need to read about the law in your state. That will clear up any misconceptions you have.
“Youre an outsider “
I forgot to add this....
Outsider? Do you have any clue as to how many American and European expats live here? Obviously not.
I, along with my Philippine wife, and our very bright young child, are as welcomed as anyone. The joy of my day is to bicycle to the central market, where I am greeted by many vendors that recognize me and call me by name.(sir Alex). Much of the town is like family. There is no one that does not know my wife’s family and myself.
Enforcing the law is good. Throwing some bad actors in prison is good. But the system itself has to be changed.
The removal of he death penalty has consequences.
Lois Lerner is the poster child for it’s return. Ditto all those now lying about Obamacare.
Prison for them would be extremely inadequate. There must be a permanent, lesson giving, solution
“Milwaukee soon to follow”
EVERY long-term Democrat-run city is on this list.
Pete Rose for mayor
It’s your turn to study history, my FRiend. You are a poor student of human nature.
It has nothing to do with Filipinos, although the many recorded instances of cannibalism in that region to which you allude would likely make that survival option somewhat less revolting to them than, say, Americans.
How many times have outsider groups been targeted and decimated or wiped out in recorded history? Is there no militant Filipino presence that is hostile to outsiders? Yes, of course there is. What do you suppose would happen in the wake of the huge worldwide depression and food shortage that would come in the absence of the United States? Paranoia, circling the wagons, scapegoating. You’d be the scapegoat. And eventually, dinner.
Your gloating is unwise. Your situation will be more perilous than ours, if and when the collapse you appear to relish actually were to occur.