Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Some reflections on the Virginia and New Jersey elections
Washington Examiner ^ | NOVEMBER 6, 2013 | MICHAEL BARONE

Posted on 11/06/2013 6:37:47 AM PST by Qbert

1. The Obamacare rollout fiasco and Obama's lies hurt Democrats.

You only have to look at Democrat Terry McAuliffe's narrow 48 percent to 46 percent margin in Virginia to see that. McAuliffe outspent Republican Ken Cuccinelli by a wide margin (as much as 10-to-1, some bloggers suggested) and was leading 46 percent to 37 percent in the last days of October in the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls on Oct. 31. In Virginia, the state that voted closest to the national average in the last two presidential elections, McAuliffe ended up with 48 percent, 3 percentage points behind Barack Obama's 2012 percentage of the state, while Cuccinelli's 46 percent was just 1 percentage point behind Mitt Romney's showing.

Did Obamacare hurt? Well, the exit poll showed Virginia voters opposed rather than favored it by a 53 percent to 45 percent margin.

In contrast:

2. The government shutdown didn’t much hurt Republicans.

Northern Virginia was perhaps more impacted by the shutdown than any other part of the country. Yet when the exit poll asked who was more to blame, 47 percent of voters said Republicans in Congress and 46 percent said Obama. Considering that individuals almost always poll better than groups of people—particularly Republicans (or, for that matter, Democrats) in Congress, this is a devastating result for Obama.

It reminds me of the story of the Teamsters Union business agent who was in the hospital and received a bouquet of flowers. The card read, “The executive board wishes you a speedy recovery by a vote of 9 to 6.” However, in this case, the margin was narrower.

3. Millennials are souring on Democrats.

The Virginia exit poll showed voters ages 18 to 29 favoring McAuliffe over Cuccinelli by a 45 percent to 40 percent margin. The Rock the Vote folks sent out an email crowing about this, but put in context, it’s a dismal result.

The 30-to-44-year-olds were much more strongly for McAuliffe (56 percent to 37 percent), providing some evidence for Guardian blogger Harry Enten's analysis showing that young people just entering the electorate are less liberal than those who did so in 2008. In comparison, the 2012 presidential exit poll showed Obama leading Romney 61 percent to 36 percent among that age group in Virginia--statistically indistinguishable from Obama's 60 percent to 37 percent margin among 18-to-29-year-olds nationally, which was down from 66 percent to 32 percent in 2008.

Moreover, in New Jersey, the exit poll showed Republican Chris Christie losing 18-to-29-year-olds to Democrat Barbara Buono by only 51 percent to 49 percent. Christie was up 13 percent among this age group compared with his 2009 showing.

Similarly, in Virginia, McAuliffe was up only 1 percent over the 2009 showing of Democrat Creigh Deeds, who lost statewide 59 percent to 41 percent. One reason is that the not-very-libertarian Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis got 15 percent of the vote among the 18-to-29-year-olds.

True, that indicates that the provocatively culturally conservative Cuccinelli did not do well with this generation. But it also suggests that McAuliffe's last-minute campaigners Hillary Clinton (born 1947), Bill Clinton (born 1946) and (the not very technologically savvy) Obama (born 1961) don't necessarily strike a resonant chord with the younger segment of Millennials (born between 1984 and 1995).

4. Hispanics and Asians didn't rush out for Democrats.

The New Jersey exit poll showed Christie carrying Hispanics 51 percent to 45 percent and losing heavily Hispanic (and historically hugely Democratic) Hudson County by only 55 percent to 44 percent. This is a great achievement that national Republicans need to study.

In addition, Christie carried both Middlesex County (58 percent to 41 percent) and Mercer County (52 percent to 46 percent), historically very (machine) Democratic counties up and down the U.S. Route 1 corridor from Trenton to Perth Amboy. Aside from California, Hawaii and Queens, this is the most heavily Asian, and particularly Indian-American, part of the United States; many recent immigrants work in New Jersey’s pharmaceuticals and high-tech firms, and others start small businesses of their own. Christie carried Middlesex County and Edison Township (with the highest Indian-born percentage in the United States) in 2009 and apparently did even better this time.

5. Private-sector unions.

A largely unreported part of Christie’s policy and political success in New Jersey has been his alliance with Democrats with private-sector union backgrounds, like state Senate President Stephen Sweeney of Gloucester County (which Christie carried 64 percent to 34 percent) and longtime political panjandrum George Norcross of Camden County (which Christie carried 55 percent to 43 percent).

They worked with him to rein in the outsized benefits and privileges of greedy and self-righteous public-sector unions in the state on the sensible theory that their hard-pressed members were paying for benefits far more lavish than they were getting themselves.

This alliance was one reason Christie did not sweep in Republican legislative majorities, even though Republican candidates received about 100,000 more votes than Democratic candidates in contests for the state Senate. But Christie seems likely to continue to have working bipartisan majorities on many issues.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New Jersey; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: barone; christie; cuccinelli; mcauliffe; nj2013; va2013

1 posted on 11/06/2013 6:37:47 AM PST by Qbert
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Qbert

Ii’m astounded that only 8% more voted against it!


2 posted on 11/06/2013 6:41:03 AM PST by basil (2ASisters.org)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Qbert

There is only one poll that counts and McAuliffe won it.

He won it because the GOP did nothing to help Cuccinelli.


3 posted on 11/06/2013 6:42:54 AM PST by Venturer (Keep Obama and you aint seen nothing yet.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Qbert

Obamacare will be seen as a benefit by the time 2014 rolls around. By the time the msm is done, the stupid American public won’t vote Republican for anything more important than dog catcher.

And if the msm doesn’t finish off Republicans, the GOPe will apply the last touches.

We’re going to lose, and lose big, so what’s the difference if we start a 3rd party? At least with a 3rd party, there would be a direction.


4 posted on 11/06/2013 6:43:56 AM PST by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Qbert

Why didn’t Barone, a GOP-e insider, mention that the RNC gave a piddly $3,000,000 to Cuccinelli last summer, and NOTHING since then? The Republican National Committee would rather have a Clinton bagman win VA than a conservative backed by the TEA Party. With “friends” like the RNC stabbing them in the back, why should limited government conservatives vote for GOP.e
candidates?


5 posted on 11/06/2013 6:44:22 AM PST by txrefugee
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Qbert

The libertarian Sarvis took 7% of the vote - from the GOP. We had 53% combined.

Let Obamacare roll out on its own accord. Killing Dems. They will soon do anything to delay it past Nov 2014. Don’t let them.

Could be a nice rout in Nov 2014.


6 posted on 11/06/2013 6:45:48 AM PST by dan on the right
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Qbert
I heard someone mention on another board (haven't confirmed myself) that Republicans actually gained seats in the Virginia State House and now control a 2/3rds super majority of 68 out of 100 with 2 still undecided. If this is true, good Ol’ Terry is going to a fun time getting any of agenda through, even if there are a handful of Rino’s mixed in...
7 posted on 11/06/2013 6:48:16 AM PST by apillar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Qbert

Regardless of the crunching, VA voters got out last night and put the state back in play. Meaning Warner’s not safe. Who will challenge him? That candidate needs to be on the air, TODAY.


8 posted on 11/06/2013 6:52:54 AM PST by txhurl ('The DOG ate my homework. That homework, too. ALL my homework. OK?' - POSHITUS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Venturer

There is only one poll that counts and McAuliffe won it.

He won it because the GOP did nothing to help Cuccinelli.
******************************************************************
AND he won it because of there being a purported “Libertarian” spoiler candidate on the ballot. The money that the Obama bundler spent to get that slimy spoiler on the ballot was the most effective expenditure that the progressives made. Because of its effectiveness, they’ll will be doing more of that in the future to siphon votes from conservative candidates.


9 posted on 11/06/2013 6:53:10 AM PST by House Atreides ( D)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Qbert

Private sector union members in Virginia are likely mostly coal miners. No reason to be fans of the Dems at this point.


10 posted on 11/06/2013 6:54:00 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: apillar

There’s a thread today about VA house taken by Rs. I’ll try to find it.


11 posted on 11/06/2013 6:57:53 AM PST by txhurl ('The DOG ate my homework. That homework, too. ALL my homework. OK?' - POSHITUS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: apillar

THAT’s good news. I have the vision of his making it a very friendly place for Hillary.

If the GOP doesn’t stop the dem spoiler third party candidate in future elections, esp in the Hillary deal, it will be a big problem. But not for them if they don’t want to win, which seems quite possible.


12 posted on 11/06/2013 6:59:47 AM PST by stanne
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Qbert

Personally...I think Cuccinelli shot himself in the foot when he refused to meet with Ted Cruz. He played it safe, instead. However, I know that a lot of Virginians are very conservative, but trust neither major party. That is the only reason the libertarian fared so well. That was the message, really, that although they probably like the republicans more, they don’t trust republicans who shy away from true conservatism. I realize it is not 1980, or 1984 any longer, but true conservatives win when they stick to their guns and don’t take the gop-e advice. IF you play it safe and try to look middle of the road, it sends the wrong message. I was so angry over this issue, and even though I don’t live there, I know others who do. They are tired of those who are afraid to stand up and hold the line.


13 posted on 11/06/2013 7:01:21 AM PST by Shery (in APO Land)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: stanne
THAT’s good news. I have the vision of his making it a very friendly place for Hillary.

Of course. I'm convinced that is the only reason McAuliffe ran. McAuliffe IS the Clinton political machine as much as Karl Rove was the Bush's Machine. McAuliffe was the biggest crook in the Clinton campaign (and that's saying alot), he was intimately involved in every financial scandal (think Buddhist temple campaign funds, Chinese Money Laundering etc.) I have the distinct fear, that he is planning to essentially turn the Virginia Governors office into the campaign arm of Hillary 2016. I hope the Republican in Virginia are watching him like a hawk, once a crook always a crook...

14 posted on 11/06/2013 7:06:30 AM PST by apillar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: apillar

GOP Retains Solid Va. House Majority

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3088049/posts


15 posted on 11/06/2013 7:08:33 AM PST by txhurl ('The DOG ate my homework. That homework, too. ALL my homework. OK?' - POSHITUS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Shery

He should have met with Cruz. The two share a lot in common.


16 posted on 11/06/2013 7:09:54 AM PST by darkangel82
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Venturer
Whether the GOP helped or not, the main reason that Cuccinelli lost is that VA is a purple state trending solid blue. NoVA, the fastest growing and most wealthy part of the state, votes like NY or CA. Immigration and a huge migration of liberals from the Northeast to the DC area to feed at the government teat have changed the demographics of the state.

30% of the residents of Fairfax County, the largest county in the state, are foreign born compared to 15% in 1990. The vast majority of them are minorities as defined by the USG. Immigrants and minorities vote more than two to one for the Dems.

It is easy to cast blame on how and why Cuccinelli lost, but I know why he lost and it has to do with demography and an improved Democrat machine that gets out the vote. Having been a resident of Fairfax County for the past 34 years, acted as a poll watcher, and been active in Rep politics, I can only say that demography is destiny. We have entered the era of tribal politics and it will be very, very difficult for a Rep to win statewide office in VA for a very long time, if ever.

17 posted on 11/06/2013 7:10:40 AM PST by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Qbert

What Cuccinelli should’ve done was closely study Bob McDonnell’s campaign tactics and strategies from 2009. McD visited every single area of the state and was meticulous about interacting with as many people as possible. He reached out to hispanics with a “growing the economy benefits us all” message, rather than trying to clumsily address immigration. In each area, to each sector of Virginia’s diverse population, McDonnell stayed on message with a calm discipline rarely seen. As a result, voters could identify with him as a guy who looked at the big picture with a Reaganesque approach that had broad appeal.

Cuccinelli, though a highly effective attorney general who would’ve been a fine governor, didn’t seem to ever be able to establish that connection on the level of success seen by McDonnell four years ago. In the future, any Republican running for statewide office in Virginia should closely review the McDonnell “game film” and emulate if not the man his winning strategies.

Though I’m highly pissed at the stay-at-homes and the SarvisBots, who otherwise could’ve swung this election, Cuccinelli could and should have helped himself by employing a far more effective and comprehensive campaign approach.

The close election last night shows the infrastructural elements such as demographics are not insurmountable after all in Virginia. But the GOP candidate needs to hone his or her message to adjust to it. Cuccinelli failed in that regard.


18 posted on 11/06/2013 7:13:24 AM PST by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kabar
Having been a resident of Fairfax County for the past 34 years, acted as a poll watcher, and been active in Rep politics, I can only say that demography is destiny.

While that's true, McDonnell was able to leverage strategic messaging to target audiences with a strong, albeit broad, economic message. That worked well with the hispanics, especially in NoVa -- he pulled more than 40% of their support without ever broaching the subject of immigration. The economic message of "we're in this together, and this is my play for job growth" played well.

19 posted on 11/06/2013 7:19:56 AM PST by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA

play for job growth = PLAN for job growth


20 posted on 11/06/2013 7:20:48 AM PST by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Qbert

Blinded immigrants come here to flee their hell holes and then they vote to turn the USA into the place they fled. Simply maddening...


21 posted on 11/06/2013 7:22:05 AM PST by tflabo (Truth or Tyranny)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kabar

You have a very valid point.

Indeed the Demographics are much the same as Maryland.

Where Montgomery County if Tijuana East, and Prince Georges Howard and Baltimore are Zimbabwe West.


22 posted on 11/06/2013 7:26:19 AM PST by Venturer (Keep Obama and you aint seen nothing yet.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA
While that's true, McDonnell was able to leverage strategic messaging to target audiences with a strong, albeit broad, economic message. That worked well with the hispanics, especially in NoVa -- he pulled more than 40% of their support without ever broaching the subject of immigration.

Using the McDonnell example is really comparing apples and oranges. In 2009 the Dem candidate was a poor one and he did not have a huge funding advantage like McAwful. There was no real third party challenger.

The Dem turnout in 2009 set historic lows, which I attribute to the still lingering glow of Obama's massive thumping of McCain. The Dems were complacent and thought that they did not have to invest the kind of effort needed to GOTV. In 2009 Deeds got 818,909 votes compared to McAwful's total of 1,064,016.

In 2009 McDonnell got 1,163,523 votes compared to Cuccinelli's 1,008,596. McDonnell had the benefit of a united Rep party (Bolling was not a sore loser) and an energized GOP due to Obama's emerging agenda and an economy that was still suffering big time. Cuccinelli did not have a unified party (Sore loser Bolling threatening to run as an independent and the Rep mayor of Virginia Beach endorsing McAwful). EW Jackson was a drag on the ticket and a polarizing figure that helped the Dems energize their base around social issues.

I mentioned immigration as a demographic issue, not a political issue. Immigrants vote two to one for Dems. And they have been driving population growth. Each cohort that turns 18 each year becomes more and more Dem.

Immigrants, legal and illegal, total 911,119 or 11.4 percent of the total population of Virginia up from 5% in 1990 and 8.1% in 2000. 45% of the immigrant population are citizens. Virginia has the 9th highest number of immigrants in the country—more than states like Arizona and Nevada.

The unemployment rate in VA today is well below the national average. In Fairfax County it is about 4%.

23 posted on 11/06/2013 7:55:55 AM PST by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA
What Cuccinelli should’ve done was closely study Bob McDonnell’s campaign tactics and strategies from 2009.

McDonnell had endorsed Bolling as the nominee for Governor. McDonnell had his scandal that tainted him and the GOP. McDonnell worked with the Dems to get a huge tax bill passed to fund transportation angering many Reps. McDonnell was tainted goods and he really had to distance himself from Cuccinelli rather than campaigning for him.

The close election last night shows the infrastructural elements such as demographics are not insurmountable after all in Virginia. But the GOP candidate needs to hone his or her message to adjust to it. Cuccinelli failed in that regard.

Dream on. Obama won the state twice. We have two Dem senators. In 2000 Kaine actually received more votes than Obama--over 2 million. The Dems have a decided advantage in any statewide election and that advantage is growing as the demographics change. Many of the GOP delegates in the 2013 races in NoVa eked out victories by hundreds of votes. There will eventually be a time when the Dems will dominate the region in Delgates, not just the Senate.

The message is not the problem as much as the numbers of Dems grow. The GOP could adopt the Tom Davis view and become more moderate and like the Dems, but even that will not be enough to win.

24 posted on 11/06/2013 8:11:18 AM PST by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: kabar

“McDonnell had endorsed Bolling as the nominee for Governor. McDonnell had his scandal that tainted him and the GOP. McDonnell worked with the Dems to get a huge tax bill passed to fund transportation angering many Reps. McDonnell was tainted goods”

You completely missed point. I was referring to McDonnell’s campaign in 2009, NOT his term as governor. That’s a different matter altogether.


25 posted on 11/06/2013 9:06:40 AM PST by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: Qbert

I think another 2 to 3 weeks and Cuccinelli would have won.


26 posted on 11/06/2013 9:19:27 AM PST by sickoflibs (To GOP : Any path to US Citizenship IS putting them ahead in line. Stop lying about your position)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: apillar
that Republicans actually gained seats in the Virginia State House and now control a 2/3rds super majority of 68 out of 100 with 2 still undecided.

Thanks. That's encouraging.

27 posted on 11/06/2013 9:40:22 AM PST by what's up
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA

I understand. I was trying to compare the different circumstances between 2009 and 2013. In 2009 McDonnell was running against Kaine’s record during the Great Recession and a down economy. Cuccinelli was running uphill in 2013 for the reasons I provided. The GOPe in VA and nationally were not supporting him, And McDonnell’s scandal hurt him as well.


28 posted on 11/06/2013 10:13:05 AM PST by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson