Skip to comments.Some reflections on the Virginia and New Jersey elections
Posted on 11/06/2013 6:37:47 AM PST by Qbert
1. The Obamacare rollout fiasco and Obama's lies hurt Democrats.
You only have to look at Democrat Terry McAuliffe's narrow 48 percent to 46 percent margin in Virginia to see that. McAuliffe outspent Republican Ken Cuccinelli by a wide margin (as much as 10-to-1, some bloggers suggested) and was leading 46 percent to 37 percent in the last days of October in the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls on Oct. 31. In Virginia, the state that voted closest to the national average in the last two presidential elections, McAuliffe ended up with 48 percent, 3 percentage points behind Barack Obama's 2012 percentage of the state, while Cuccinelli's 46 percent was just 1 percentage point behind Mitt Romney's showing.
Did Obamacare hurt? Well, the exit poll showed Virginia voters opposed rather than favored it by a 53 percent to 45 percent margin.
2. The government shutdown didnt much hurt Republicans.
Northern Virginia was perhaps more impacted by the shutdown than any other part of the country. Yet when the exit poll asked who was more to blame, 47 percent of voters said Republicans in Congress and 46 percent said Obama. Considering that individuals almost always poll better than groups of peopleparticularly Republicans (or, for that matter, Democrats) in Congress, this is a devastating result for Obama.
It reminds me of the story of the Teamsters Union business agent who was in the hospital and received a bouquet of flowers. The card read, The executive board wishes you a speedy recovery by a vote of 9 to 6. However, in this case, the margin was narrower.
3. Millennials are souring on Democrats.
The Virginia exit poll showed voters ages 18 to 29 favoring McAuliffe over Cuccinelli by a 45 percent to 40 percent margin. The Rock the Vote folks sent out an email crowing about this, but put in context, its a dismal result.
The 30-to-44-year-olds were much more strongly for McAuliffe (56 percent to 37 percent), providing some evidence for Guardian blogger Harry Enten's analysis showing that young people just entering the electorate are less liberal than those who did so in 2008. In comparison, the 2012 presidential exit poll showed Obama leading Romney 61 percent to 36 percent among that age group in Virginia--statistically indistinguishable from Obama's 60 percent to 37 percent margin among 18-to-29-year-olds nationally, which was down from 66 percent to 32 percent in 2008.
Moreover, in New Jersey, the exit poll showed Republican Chris Christie losing 18-to-29-year-olds to Democrat Barbara Buono by only 51 percent to 49 percent. Christie was up 13 percent among this age group compared with his 2009 showing.
Similarly, in Virginia, McAuliffe was up only 1 percent over the 2009 showing of Democrat Creigh Deeds, who lost statewide 59 percent to 41 percent. One reason is that the not-very-libertarian Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis got 15 percent of the vote among the 18-to-29-year-olds.
True, that indicates that the provocatively culturally conservative Cuccinelli did not do well with this generation. But it also suggests that McAuliffe's last-minute campaigners Hillary Clinton (born 1947), Bill Clinton (born 1946) and (the not very technologically savvy) Obama (born 1961) don't necessarily strike a resonant chord with the younger segment of Millennials (born between 1984 and 1995).
4. Hispanics and Asians didn't rush out for Democrats.
The New Jersey exit poll showed Christie carrying Hispanics 51 percent to 45 percent and losing heavily Hispanic (and historically hugely Democratic) Hudson County by only 55 percent to 44 percent. This is a great achievement that national Republicans need to study.
In addition, Christie carried both Middlesex County (58 percent to 41 percent) and Mercer County (52 percent to 46 percent), historically very (machine) Democratic counties up and down the U.S. Route 1 corridor from Trenton to Perth Amboy. Aside from California, Hawaii and Queens, this is the most heavily Asian, and particularly Indian-American, part of the United States; many recent immigrants work in New Jerseys pharmaceuticals and high-tech firms, and others start small businesses of their own. Christie carried Middlesex County and Edison Township (with the highest Indian-born percentage in the United States) in 2009 and apparently did even better this time.
5. Private-sector unions.
A largely unreported part of Christies policy and political success in New Jersey has been his alliance with Democrats with private-sector union backgrounds, like state Senate President Stephen Sweeney of Gloucester County (which Christie carried 64 percent to 34 percent) and longtime political panjandrum George Norcross of Camden County (which Christie carried 55 percent to 43 percent).
They worked with him to rein in the outsized benefits and privileges of greedy and self-righteous public-sector unions in the state on the sensible theory that their hard-pressed members were paying for benefits far more lavish than they were getting themselves.
This alliance was one reason Christie did not sweep in Republican legislative majorities, even though Republican candidates received about 100,000 more votes than Democratic candidates in contests for the state Senate. But Christie seems likely to continue to have working bipartisan majorities on many issues.
Ii’m astounded that only 8% more voted against it!
There is only one poll that counts and McAuliffe won it.
He won it because the GOP did nothing to help Cuccinelli.
Obamacare will be seen as a benefit by the time 2014 rolls around. By the time the msm is done, the stupid American public won’t vote Republican for anything more important than dog catcher.
And if the msm doesn’t finish off Republicans, the GOPe will apply the last touches.
We’re going to lose, and lose big, so what’s the difference if we start a 3rd party? At least with a 3rd party, there would be a direction.
Why didn’t Barone, a GOP-e insider, mention that the RNC gave a piddly $3,000,000 to Cuccinelli last summer, and NOTHING since then? The Republican National Committee would rather have a Clinton bagman win VA than a conservative backed by the TEA Party. With “friends” like the RNC stabbing them in the back, why should limited government conservatives vote for GOP.e
The libertarian Sarvis took 7% of the vote - from the GOP. We had 53% combined.
Let Obamacare roll out on its own accord. Killing Dems. They will soon do anything to delay it past Nov 2014. Don’t let them.
Could be a nice rout in Nov 2014.
Regardless of the crunching, VA voters got out last night and put the state back in play. Meaning Warner’s not safe. Who will challenge him? That candidate needs to be on the air, TODAY.
There is only one poll that counts and McAuliffe won it.
He won it because the GOP did nothing to help Cuccinelli.
AND he won it because of there being a purported “Libertarian” spoiler candidate on the ballot. The money that the Obama bundler spent to get that slimy spoiler on the ballot was the most effective expenditure that the progressives made. Because of its effectiveness, they’ll will be doing more of that in the future to siphon votes from conservative candidates.
Private sector union members in Virginia are likely mostly coal miners. No reason to be fans of the Dems at this point.
There’s a thread today about VA house taken by Rs. I’ll try to find it.
THAT’s good news. I have the vision of his making it a very friendly place for Hillary.
If the GOP doesn’t stop the dem spoiler third party candidate in future elections, esp in the Hillary deal, it will be a big problem. But not for them if they don’t want to win, which seems quite possible.
Personally...I think Cuccinelli shot himself in the foot when he refused to meet with Ted Cruz. He played it safe, instead. However, I know that a lot of Virginians are very conservative, but trust neither major party. That is the only reason the libertarian fared so well. That was the message, really, that although they probably like the republicans more, they don’t trust republicans who shy away from true conservatism. I realize it is not 1980, or 1984 any longer, but true conservatives win when they stick to their guns and don’t take the gop-e advice. IF you play it safe and try to look middle of the road, it sends the wrong message. I was so angry over this issue, and even though I don’t live there, I know others who do. They are tired of those who are afraid to stand up and hold the line.
Of course. I'm convinced that is the only reason McAuliffe ran. McAuliffe IS the Clinton political machine as much as Karl Rove was the Bush's Machine. McAuliffe was the biggest crook in the Clinton campaign (and that's saying alot), he was intimately involved in every financial scandal (think Buddhist temple campaign funds, Chinese Money Laundering etc.) I have the distinct fear, that he is planning to essentially turn the Virginia Governors office into the campaign arm of Hillary 2016. I hope the Republican in Virginia are watching him like a hawk, once a crook always a crook...
GOP Retains Solid Va. House Majority
He should have met with Cruz. The two share a lot in common.
30% of the residents of Fairfax County, the largest county in the state, are foreign born compared to 15% in 1990. The vast majority of them are minorities as defined by the USG. Immigrants and minorities vote more than two to one for the Dems.
It is easy to cast blame on how and why Cuccinelli lost, but I know why he lost and it has to do with demography and an improved Democrat machine that gets out the vote. Having been a resident of Fairfax County for the past 34 years, acted as a poll watcher, and been active in Rep politics, I can only say that demography is destiny. We have entered the era of tribal politics and it will be very, very difficult for a Rep to win statewide office in VA for a very long time, if ever.
What Cuccinelli should’ve done was closely study Bob McDonnell’s campaign tactics and strategies from 2009. McD visited every single area of the state and was meticulous about interacting with as many people as possible. He reached out to hispanics with a “growing the economy benefits us all” message, rather than trying to clumsily address immigration. In each area, to each sector of Virginia’s diverse population, McDonnell stayed on message with a calm discipline rarely seen. As a result, voters could identify with him as a guy who looked at the big picture with a Reaganesque approach that had broad appeal.
Cuccinelli, though a highly effective attorney general who would’ve been a fine governor, didn’t seem to ever be able to establish that connection on the level of success seen by McDonnell four years ago. In the future, any Republican running for statewide office in Virginia should closely review the McDonnell “game film” and emulate if not the man his winning strategies.
Though I’m highly pissed at the stay-at-homes and the SarvisBots, who otherwise could’ve swung this election, Cuccinelli could and should have helped himself by employing a far more effective and comprehensive campaign approach.
The close election last night shows the infrastructural elements such as demographics are not insurmountable after all in Virginia. But the GOP candidate needs to hone his or her message to adjust to it. Cuccinelli failed in that regard.
While that's true, McDonnell was able to leverage strategic messaging to target audiences with a strong, albeit broad, economic message. That worked well with the hispanics, especially in NoVa -- he pulled more than 40% of their support without ever broaching the subject of immigration. The economic message of "we're in this together, and this is my play for job growth" played well.
play for job growth = PLAN for job growth