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Michigan Senate Seat No Longer Safe for Democrats
Roll Call ^

Posted on 11/14/2013 2:47:34 PM PST by ClaytonP

peters 202 1130111 445x295 Michigan Senate Seat No Longer Safe for Democrats

Peters is the likely Democratic nominee for Senate in Michigan. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Republicans don’t need to win Michigan to get the majority in the Senate, but the Wolverine State could become a serious takeover target later next year.

After more than three decades, Democratic Sen. Carl Levin announced that he would not seek re-election. Instead of competitive primaries filled with ambitious candidates, it looks like both parties have settled on their nominees for next fall. At this point, the general election looks like it will be between Democratic Rep. Gary Peters and Republican former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.

Early public polling shows a competitive race with both candidates lacking statewide name identification. A September EPIC-MRA poll showed Peters ahead, 38 percent to 37 percent. A mid-October automated survey from the Democratic Public Policy Polling firm had the congressman with a larger advantage, 43 percent to 36 percent. And a recent automated survey by the Revsix, a Republican firm, and Michigan Blueprint Strategies, a Democratic firm, for Inside Michigan Politics also had Peters leading a general election ballot test, 43 percent to 38 percent.

Democrats start the general election with the advantage. Republicans have only won one of the past dozen Senate races in Michigan, and that was in 1994. But 1994 was also the last time Michigan saw an open Senate seat.

Land should become a credible candidate who could take advantage of another favorable GOP environment, should one develop. But she is also running from a state office that hasn’t traditionally been a launching pad for the U.S. Senate.

Make no mistake, Peters has shown remarkable political agility and starts this race with the edge, but this open seat should no longer be considered safe. You can read a full analysis of the race in the recent November 7 edition ($) of The Rothenberg Political Report.

The Michigan Senate race is now rated Democrat Favored according to Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: 113th; 2014midterms; mi2014

1 posted on 11/14/2013 2:47:34 PM PST by ClaytonP
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To: ClaytonP

we need Pennsylvania. I think we can take it if we get out the vote to counter all the rats in Philly.


2 posted on 11/14/2013 2:50:50 PM PST by Sacajaweau
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To: Springman; cyclotic; netmilsmom; RatsDawg; PGalt; FreedomHammer; queenkathy; madison10; ...
Terri Land has been hammering Obamacare.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Michigan legislative action thread
3 posted on 11/14/2013 2:52:29 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: ClaytonP

Finally, a chance to get someone to the right of Spencer Abraham.


4 posted on 11/14/2013 2:52:51 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: Paladin2

Terri Land has an establishment past but has been doing the right thing by running with the tea party crowd and saying the right things like backing up Ted Cruz on defunding Obamacare.

If she doesn’t have statewide name recognition its because people are morons who didn’t know who the secretary of state was before Ruth Johnson.


5 posted on 11/14/2013 2:58:57 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: ClaytonP

At 79 isn’t it a bit early for Combover Carl to be packing it in? His older bro is still hard at it in the House.


6 posted on 11/14/2013 2:59:18 PM PST by nascarnation
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To: Sacajaweau

There is not a Senate race in Pennsylvania next year.


7 posted on 11/14/2013 2:59:29 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
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To: ClaytonP
The execrable democrat senator Jay Rockefeller is retiring!

Please support pro-life, pro-gun, ANTI-0BAMACARE, Constitutional Conservative Pat McGeehan for US Senate! He's a Tea Party type, so the GOPe can be relied upon to stab him in the back. Personal, individual support from real conservatives is essential!

8 posted on 11/14/2013 3:00:09 PM PST by NorthMountain
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To: nascarnation

I think Lenin saw the writing on the wall and knew a crapstorm was brewing over Obamacare.


9 posted on 11/14/2013 3:04:58 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: ClaytonP

Awwwwwww......

roflol!

How is that healthcare bill working out for you Democrats?!


10 posted on 11/14/2013 3:06:13 PM PST by kcvl
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To: NorthMountain
He's a Tea Party type, so the GOPe can be relied upon to stab him in the back

And Capito is pro-abort, so the GOPe can be relied upon to go to the mat for her.

There is NO excuse for settling for a pro-abort in a state like WV! (But you can guarantee the GOPe will go all-out to attack any primary opponents to Capito).

11 posted on 11/14/2013 3:10:37 PM PST by rhinohunter (Freepers aren't booing -- they're shouting "Cruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuz")
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To: ClaytonP

Why would the GOPe want to do anything to curb the feral gummint just as it would appear all that power is about to fall in their lap? This is why they hate the TEA Party so much. Just as it is about to be “their turn” at the trough we want to take it away! It just ain’t fair. (/s)
They don’t seem to understand Lucy is setting the football up for them one more time. They are so damn dumb they don’t realize the only thing in the trough is debt.


12 posted on 11/14/2013 3:11:45 PM PST by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: NorthMountain

North,

Have you seen any polling on McGeehan v. Capito?


13 posted on 11/14/2013 3:12:42 PM PST by rhinohunter (Freepers aren't booing -- they're shouting "Cruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuz")
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To: cripplecreek

Personally I think Rob Steele would be a better candidate.......maybe it’s the sexism I have in me but in this election, it’s going to be a real battle for Levin’s senate seat and I feel a smart alpha male will stand a better chance in winning than Terry Land.........


14 posted on 11/14/2013 3:13:08 PM PST by Hot Tabasco (I don't call "911", in my house, I AM '911"....)
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To: cripplecreek

She has the same ID as this idiot, Peters.

Also, among those who know who she is, she is viewed reasonably favorably. No skeletons or fraud scandals.

Besides, Peters sucks as a campaigner. Lightweight. I rate this race as a more likely pickup than Iowa, where Democrats have a better candidate.


15 posted on 11/14/2013 3:13:33 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: Hot Tabasco

I’d like Steele too but he says he isn’t running.


16 posted on 11/14/2013 3:13:52 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: ClaytonP; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; GOPsterinMA; randita; Sun; LdSentinal; ...

Terri Lynn Land may be making a comeback from her disastrous, short-lived campaign for Governor in 2010. It helps that she has some name I.D. and personal wealth to draw upon, important assets in a state with a costly media market.


17 posted on 11/14/2013 3:30:18 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (The War on Drugs is Big Government statism)
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To: cripplecreek
I’d like Steele too but he says he isn’t running.

That's very unfortunate since we now have a chance to take over a senate seat held decades by a libtard. And it's going to take a heavyweight contender to do it......and I don't think Terry Land has the ability.

18 posted on 11/14/2013 3:33:49 PM PST by Hot Tabasco (I don't call "911", in my house, I AM '911"....)
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To: Hot Tabasco

She can’t run a worse race than Pete Hoekstra did and the GOPe wanted Dave Camp but he said no thanks.

Actually I think my ideal would be Ruth Johnson but she’s right where she needs to be with her boot on the neck of democrat election officials.


19 posted on 11/14/2013 3:37:23 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: ClaytonP

Alright!


20 posted on 11/14/2013 3:40:57 PM PST by WashingtonSource
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To: WashingtonSource

Not a direct reply to WashingtonSource just a general question.

How does the loss of population in Detroit impact Michigan politics?

Does the loss of several hundred thousand votes from the greater Detroit area mean that Michigan is no longer a dark blue state?


21 posted on 11/14/2013 3:52:06 PM PST by Fai Mao (Genius at Large)
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To: rhinohunter

Yes. Two polls were run in September, and it’s a disaster for McGeehan:

Harper
Capito 77%
McGeehan 7%

PPP
Capito 72%
McGeehan 4%


22 posted on 11/14/2013 3:54:19 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: Fai Mao

Like all big cities, the growing underclass is moving farther out into the suburbs, not going away.


23 posted on 11/14/2013 3:55:02 PM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: Viennacon

As I recall he was not expected to win the 2012 CD14 primary. His district is 57% black.

I realize a statewide race is a different story.


24 posted on 11/14/2013 4:07:12 PM PST by scrabblehack
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To: NorthMountain

In my state Of NJ only way ‘Rat senator leaves office
is feet first or in handcuffs.....


25 posted on 11/14/2013 4:09:25 PM PST by njslim (St)
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To: Fai Mao; jjotto

Wayne County always was Democrat. On the other hand, loss of population in Detroit has not led to fewer votes.

Spencer Abraham was fairly conservative...Robert Griffin (not the DC QB!) not so much...but yes, the seat is winnable.


26 posted on 11/14/2013 4:12:07 PM PST by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack
On the other hand, loss of population in Detroit has not led to fewer votes.

Those days are over now that Johnson is SOS.
27 posted on 11/14/2013 4:25:36 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: cripplecreek

I’m sure (if he wants to) there will be some lucrative lobbying or think tank slot available. Or if Hillary is elected a cabinet post.


28 posted on 11/14/2013 4:44:15 PM PST by nascarnation
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To: rhinohunter

The very little polling I have seen has Capito ahead significantly. I’m not surprised, she’s well known in the WV 2nd district; at this point polling is IMO mostly name recognition. McGeehan seems willing and able to actually campaign (unlike John Raese whom I reluctantly supported in the past), so support now may very well pay off. IMO.


29 posted on 11/14/2013 4:57:01 PM PST by NorthMountain
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To: scrabblehack

I’ve heard his speeches. Total snoozefest. If he entered the senate, he would undoubtedly be the most boring skidmark there.


30 posted on 11/14/2013 5:26:21 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; cripplecreek; randita; justiceseeker93; fieldmarshaldj
I take it from this ridiculous headline that this is Rothenberg's first update on the race since the seat became open a while ago, because DUH.

The Michigan Senate race is now rated Democrat Favored

It's lean rat at worst, my initial rating is tossup. As it's been since MONTHS ago when Levin announced he was retiring.

31 posted on 11/14/2013 5:52:39 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy
Things are still pretty quiet because the election is still a year off. Pure PAC is running ads against Peters though.

Pure Washington
32 posted on 11/14/2013 6:11:34 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: cripplecreek

That’s important. Wound early, wound often. Set the voter’s mind. We need all the help we can get.


33 posted on 11/15/2013 3:53:01 PM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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