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Can Fracking Keep U.S. No.1 Oil Producer?
247wallst ^ | November 13, 2013 1:26 pm EST | By Paul Ausick

Posted on 11/17/2013 5:44:15 PM PST by ckilmer

Two recent well-respected and long-running oil industry publications have proclaimed that booming production in North America, particularly in the U.S. shale fields, will hit a plateau as early as 2016 and that production declines will follow soon thereafter. Last week the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) set the decline date sometime before 2020 and this week the International Energy Agency (IEA) set the 2016 plateau date.

The boom in U.S. production is set to displace Russia as the top oil-producing country by next year. Had you said this to anyone five years ago, you might have been laughed out of the room. And as both OPEC and the IEA have made clear, the U.S. is not likely to stay on top for long.

That view is not widely shared among the companies that are operating in the Bakken shale play or the Niobrara or the Eagle Ford or the Permian Basin or any of a number of other shale regions. In fact, more than one company think that the boom is just getting underway.

We should assume, of course, that both sides are talking their book, but if we take a look at what’s happening in the shale plays, the scales tip in favor of the operators and away from the cartel and the IEA for two basic reasons. First, technological advances, and second, the vast size of the resource.

Technology first. Continental Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLR) is the largest leaseholder in the Bakken shale play and has been working the field for the longest time. In its third quarter earnings report the company said it had reduced its average well cost to $8 million, two months earlier and $200,000 below its target price. Much of this savings is related to a new technique where one well-pad serves several wells, each of which is draining a different part of the oil-bearing rock.

According to an engineering manager at oil field services giant Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) told Platts that U.S. shale production is only going to go up. His reasons: the vast size of the resource and growing familiarity with it. He also said that there’s plenty of room to improve extraction techniques and minimize the pushback from environmental groups. In the Eagle Ford shale play, for example, Schlumberger now uses well log data to determine the first five wells to drill in a new area. The technique has improved production by 33%.

Everyone knows that fracked wells produce at their maximum level within a very short period of time compared with conventional vertical drilling techniques. Everyone also knows that the maximum level of production tapers off just as quickly and has a very short tail. What not everyone knows is that horizontal drilling techniques and hydraulic fracturing currently recover less than 20% of the oil in place, and in some places even less than that. As technology improves and gets cheaper, companies will return and squeeze more oil out of the reservoir.

Another area where technology has vastly improved is in water consumption. A Texas company is developing technology that uses no fresh water and others have figured out methods for reclaiming 95% of the water used in fracking operations.

Total production costs have fallen from around $80 a barrel three years ago to around $50 to $60 a barrel today at the most advanced producers’ sites. As WTI prices continue to slide, wringing out production costs will become more important than ever. Energy consulting firm Bentek has said that even if oil prices fall to around $60 a barrel production will continue to grow.

We’ve already noted that Continental Resources and Schlumberger are advancing drilling technology and making money while doing it. Other publicly traded firms developing better and cheaper ways of extracting oil include SAP AG (NYSE: SAP), which has developed technology that allows a drilling company to monitor the operation of thousands of pieces of equipment in real time from a single location. The software has cut maintenance and repair time in half, and when downtime can cost half a million dollars a day, the software quickly pays for itself.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) currently reuses all the water it uses for drilling in the Marcellus shale play in Pennsylvania, and reuses about 80% of the produced water that flows from producing wells. The company believes that regulatory agencies could soon require that 100% of the produced water be recycled, and it is aiming to do just that.

The fastest growing segment of General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is its oil and gas equipment business which contributed more than $15 billion to the company’s 2012 revenues and more than $2 billion to earnings. Like SAP, GE is getting into the big data business as a complement to its existing work as a designer and manufacturer of compressors, turbines, generators, and other drilling equipment.

Will the fracking revolution carry the U.S. to the top spot in global oil production? Absolutely, but the question is how long can it stay there. OPEC and the IEA reckon not for long. But given the size of the resource and the number of big, experienced firms that continue to invest billions of dollars in technology to get even more out of U.S. shale plays, expecting U.S. production to peak in less than six years seems like a foolish bet.


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: baaken; energy; fracking; frackingshaleoil; oil; shaleoil
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1 posted on 11/17/2013 5:44:15 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: thackney

key points.....

“What not everyone knows is that horizontal drilling techniques and hydraulic fracturing currently recover less than 20% of the oil in place, and in some places even less than that.

Total production costs have fallen from around $80 a barrel three years ago to around $50 to $60 a barrel today at the most advanced producers’ sites. As WTI prices continue to slide, wringing out production costs will become more important than ever. Energy consulting firm Bentek has said that even if oil prices fall to around $60 a barrel production will continue to grow.”


2 posted on 11/17/2013 5:49:12 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer

So the only cloud on the horizon is Obama and the Dems.


3 posted on 11/17/2013 5:49:18 PM PST by MUDDOG
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To: MUDDOG

the USA has dug itself into capital hole....that is the USA has been exporting money for decades to pay for oil and what not.

It will take several decades for our country to recapitalize.

The elements are currently in place for this to happen.

Lots and lots of things can go wrong. Known wrecking balls are the democrats. Prayer is helpful on this score.


4 posted on 11/17/2013 5:52:50 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer

-——Can Fracking Keep U.S. No.1 Oil Producer? -——

It doesn’t matter


5 posted on 11/17/2013 5:53:12 PM PST by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Travon... Felony assault and battery hate crime)
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To: bert

-——Can Fracking Keep U.S. No.1 Oil Producer? -——

It doesn’t matter
..............
It does matter for at least the next decade —or until something else better comes along. The biggest most important thing is that fracking shifts capital flows around the world. Fracking steadily shrinks the size of the trade deficit. Fracking will steadily lower the cost of oil. Fracking will undergird the US economy —producing 2% economic growth alone— so that despite the tremendous screw ups of the Obama administration — the USA will stay afloat. Fracking contributes about 100 billion to federal coffers annually — shrinking the size of the federal deficit.

The authors believe based on their interviews with the big companies involved that the fracking revolution is only getting started.


6 posted on 11/17/2013 5:58:42 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer

You confuse producing lots of oil and being number 1

it is possible to be oil independent and not be the #1 producer.


7 posted on 11/17/2013 6:01:55 PM PST by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Travon... Felony assault and battery hate crime)
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To: ckilmer

I guess the phrase “well respected” is being corrupted.


8 posted on 11/17/2013 6:03:35 PM PST by swisher
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To: ckilmer

Not if Obama can prevent it.


9 posted on 11/17/2013 6:09:33 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: ckilmer

Production cost do not include exploration cost, ie, reserve replacement cost.


10 posted on 11/17/2013 6:20:36 PM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: bert

You confuse producing lots of oil and being number 1

it is possible to be oil independent and not be the #1 producer.
..............
The key points in the article based on inteviews with the majors—are that fracking costs have plunged from $80@ barrel to $50-60@ barrel. That current technology is only getting 20% of the oil in place. That the companies involved in fracking believe that the USA is only in the very earliest days of the technology.

What’s the point here.

The point is that there is enough visibility to predict that production can grow by 1 million barrels@ day for the next 2-3 years—as it has for the last three. Citibank analysts have separately said that they expect that the USA will become oil independent by 2020. That means that production will have to rise by five million barrels @ day.

Does being oil independent mean that the USA will be the #1 oil producer in the world? Not necessarily.

But oil independence is certainly a step in the right direction,.

Here’s the way citibank puts it.

The probability of North American energy independence is extremely high, but even the prospects of US energy independence are real. Burgeoning US energy independence brings with it an opportunity to re-define the parameters of post-Cold War foreign policy and provides unexpected opportunities for the country’s foreign and trade policy.

The implications for the global petroleum sector — for trade, for shipping, for the relationships among crude oil streams — are also profound, as are the implications for oil prices, which will be weighed significantly by this profound change in the position of the United States. Perhaps the most significant change in store befalls the geopolitics of oil and natural gas, where there is a long list of winners and losers, and where win-win solutions for producing and consumer countries might well prove to be elusive and where bitter politics of adjustment could be another complicating element of the global geopolitical landscape.https://www.citivelocity.com/citigps/ReportSeries.action?recordId=16


11 posted on 11/17/2013 6:21:44 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: Cicero

Not if Obama can prevent it.
..........
true. that’s the wild card in this business.


12 posted on 11/17/2013 6:22:31 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer

This may help explain the difference and why one cost is discussed separately from the other.

http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/US_E_and_P_benchmark_study_-_June_2012/$FILE/US_EP_benchmark_study_2012.pdf


13 posted on 11/17/2013 6:24:57 PM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: ckilmer

Obama will be gone in 3 years. The wild card is who will replace him.


14 posted on 11/17/2013 6:30:20 PM PST by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: thackney

Production cost do not include exploration cost, ie, reserve replacement cost.
...........
Yeah, you’ve mentioned that before. But technology is such a huge wild card. Consider the statement that they’re only getting 20% of the oil “in place” with current technology.

I find that shocking. I thought they were getting 40% of the oil in place. 20% leaves a whole lot of room for growth 10-20 years from now when technology improves with no exploration or reserve replacement costs.

Something I don’t understand but maybe you can explain. The article says

“According to an engineering manager at oil field services giant Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) told Platts that U.S. shale production is only going to go up. His reasons: the vast size of the resource and growing familiarity with it. He also said that there’s plenty of room to improve extraction techniques and minimize the pushback from environmental groups. In the Eagle Ford shale play, for example, Schlumberger now uses well log data to determine the first five wells to drill in a new area. The technique has improved production by 33%. “

Do you consider well log data to be a facet of drilling costs or exploration costs.


15 posted on 11/17/2013 6:30:28 PM PST by ckilmer
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Everyone knows...Everyone also knows...

Well...not everyone knows where China is on the globe.

16 posted on 11/17/2013 6:31:41 PM PST by ROCKLOBSTER ("The government" is nothing but a RAT jobs program)
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To: Bubba_Leroy

Obama will be gone in 3 years. The wild card is who will replace him.
.......
If obamacare is still killing the dems, then likely a republican. That will take out the risk of the feds screwing the oil companies and may even make such places like Nevada open for oil drilling. (imho there’s there’s a couple billion barrels of drill-able oil there that the feds have locked up.)

That said 2016 is a long way away. Anything can happen between now and then.


17 posted on 11/17/2013 6:35:33 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: ROCKLOBSTER

Everyone knows...Everyone also knows...

Well...not everyone knows where China is on the globe.
............
China may well be a big shale gas producer in 5-10 years.

We’ll see. The USA has the infrastructure in place to do the fracking. Maybe saudi arabia does too. but few other countries already have the infrastructure in place to do the fracking. That’s expensive.


18 posted on 11/17/2013 6:39:07 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer
But technology is such a huge wild card. Consider the statement that they’re only getting 20% of the oil “in place” with current technology.

Do you understand how many decades it took us to change 20% in traditional reservoirs to 30%, and tertiary methods to 40%?

This isn't something just waiting around for someone to take a look at it. It is a massive undertaking.

Well log data can be part of either production development or exploration, if I understand it correctly. If you are drilling in a new area, well log data is part of the analysis in finding commercial plays. It is also used to select the best drilling locations and the like for developing a play found to be commercial producing.

19 posted on 11/17/2013 6:47:23 PM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: ckilmer

I know it is wikipedia but it includes links to real sources at the bottom of the page.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_fracturing_by_country


20 posted on 11/17/2013 6:50:57 PM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: ckilmer

So, if everyone starts fracking....will oil go dirt cheap again?


21 posted on 11/17/2013 6:54:01 PM PST by ROCKLOBSTER ("The government" is nothing but a RAT jobs program)
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To: ckilmer
The underlying point to the energy revolution that's happening in this country is really this:

Without cheap(er) energy, manufacturing will never return to this country en-masse.

If we look at declining energy costs combined with rising labor costs in Asia-Pacific, the conditions are shaping up nicely for a manufacturing renaissance in America.

Just my humble opinion based on what I'm reading. I could be wrong.

22 posted on 11/17/2013 6:56:27 PM PST by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: usconservative
the conditions are shaping up nicely for a manufacturing renaissance in America.

Yabut....will they use robots...or union thugs?

23 posted on 11/17/2013 7:14:40 PM PST by ROCKLOBSTER ("The government" is nothing but a RAT jobs program)
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To: Cicero

Obama will continue fighting fracking, on behalf of his Saudi ‘Miss Havershams’, while claiming credit for its success, in standard Democrat schizophrenic form.


24 posted on 11/17/2013 7:33:28 PM PST by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: All armed conservatives.)
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To: usconservative

If we look at declining energy costs combined with rising labor costs in Asia-Pacific, the conditions are shaping up nicely for a manufacturing renaissance in America.

Just my humble opinion based on what I’m reading. I could be wrong.
.............
Yes, I think you’re right. There is an economic reversal in the works as big as what happened during the 1970’s when you US oil production peaked, saudi oil production zoomed upward and the first OPEC oil strike came and pushed up oil prices.

The Renaissance in manufacturing will not be limited to oil/natural gas intensive industries. But that’s another story.


25 posted on 11/17/2013 7:36:00 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: tumblindice

Yep. He just gave a speech claiming credit for increasing U.S. energy production and jobs—although I think he said that it was his green energy schemes that did it.


26 posted on 11/17/2013 7:40:32 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: ROCKLOBSTER

So, if everyone starts fracking....will oil go dirt cheap again?
........
Right now oil at $60@ barrel looks to be in the cards in a couple years. I think that would push gas prices to under $2@ barrel.

I think gas prices will fall further in the USA over the next 5-10 years. The pressure on prices will be mostly downward in the USA because of rising supply and stable to falling demand.

Even if economic activity in the USA rockets upwards as will happen if Obamacare is killed—improved fuel economy and truck/bus conversion to natural gas will dampen demand for gasoline. Ten years from now if the electric car comes down in price and improves in performance—then the electric car will start to cut into demand for gasoline—and thereby undercut the price of oil.


27 posted on 11/17/2013 7:43:37 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer

And, I’ve got high hopes for GTL technology for motor vehicle fuels. We’re the Saudi Arabia of NG.


28 posted on 11/17/2013 7:46:27 PM PST by ROCKLOBSTER ("The government" is nothing but a RAT jobs program)
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To: ROCKLOBSTER

the conditions are shaping up nicely for a manufacturing renaissance in America.

Yabut....will they use robots...or union thugs?
...........
robots and 3d printing plus cheap energy. (union states will be out of luck)

But remember this is a big secular change that will work out over a couple decades—just as high oil prices decapitalized the USA over a couple decades starting back in the 1970’s.


29 posted on 11/17/2013 7:47:14 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer
union states will be out of luck

Good...I'm in a union state.....Ska-rew them.

30 posted on 11/17/2013 7:51:54 PM PST by ROCKLOBSTER ("The government" is nothing but a RAT jobs program)
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To: thackney

Do you understand how many decades it took us to change 20% in traditional reservoirs to 30%, and tertiary methods to 40%?
.............
My understanding is that oil drilling for the last 150 years before the current technological improvements — only extracted something like 10% of “oil in place”

This article suggests that current technology will pull out another 20% of “oil in place” — leaving something like 70% of the “oil in place” still in the ground.

What do we mean by “oil in place” We’ve had these discussions before. I believe it was you who mentioned that there was something like 400 billion barrels of “oil in place” in the baaken. But that commercially extractable oil represented something less than 10% of that number. As well, recent reports that there was something like 50 billion barrels of oil “in place” in the woodford cana formant ion did not mean that that much oil could be commercially exploited. Rather only some small fraction of that number was actually commercially drillable.


31 posted on 11/17/2013 7:59:52 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer

I’m all for this, but I hope everybody understands that this buys us a LIMITED amount of time to find better/actual practical renewable energy, like thorium nuclear power, fusion (hot or cold) and so on. The trick bag for drilling oil will eventually run out of tricks.

At the end of this century, people (if any) will wonder what the hell we were thinking when we were burning incredibly useful oil to go places and for heat.


32 posted on 11/17/2013 8:10:11 PM PST by The Antiyuppie ("When small men cast long shadows, then it is very late in the day.")
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To: The Antiyuppie

I’m all for this, but I hope everybody understands that this buys us a LIMITED amount of time to find better/actual practical renewable energy, like thorium nuclear power,
..........
I don’t disagree even a little.

This stuff will buy the USA easily 30 years—which is plenty of time to bring thorium reactors onstream.

I think thorium reactors will happen much sooner. The demand for them has only increased every year for the last couple of years. There are some very sharp people working on making thorium reactors acceptable to the mainstream and moving federal policies to include thorium reactor development.


33 posted on 11/17/2013 8:15:34 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: ROCKLOBSTER

union states will be out of luck

Good...I’m in a union state.....Ska-rew them.
..........
that’s worst case.

manufacturing plants that use both 3d printing and robots will not have very many people. The few people that do attend to the factory floor —will need more than a high school diploma. For this reason, likely these kinds of manufacturing facilities will likely go up in blue states as well as red states.

tesla’s s class is being produced in california. That plant likely has many more people working on the floor. I think california is a union state. and the tesla plant may use all the most up to date robots. I’d have to research that to find out.


34 posted on 11/17/2013 8:31:54 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer
The few people that do attend to the factory floor —will need more than a high school diploma. For this reason, likely these kinds of manufacturing facilities will likely go up in blue states as well as red states.

That would be great.

I've toured the Pratt and Whitney engine plant in North Berwick. It was amazing, it was like I was in another state.

Each operator had a college degree and operated usually three robots. He would set one up and get it started, and then load up the second one...then the third one.

By the time the third one was running, the first one would be done.

They encouraged continuing education and gave each employee a $5000 bonus whenever they achieved another degree.

35 posted on 11/17/2013 8:39:40 PM PST by ROCKLOBSTER ("The government" is nothing but a RAT jobs program)
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To: ckilmer

Let me take a shot at this one. I’ve never drilled a horizontal but I will be involved in one after the first of the year as an observer and a small investor. The standard vertical well has a limited area where it can be fraced due to the horizontal strata in which it lies. That area can be as little as 20 feet to as large as a couple of hundred. The actual fracturing done may only extend from the well bore a few hundred feet giving you very little exposer to the formation. Horizontal drilling gives us the ability to stay in that formation horizontally for several thousand feet. Instead of the normal one stage or two stage frac’s that we normally do, in this one in particular we’ll be doing a 32 stage frac for a length of about 2400 to 3000 feet feet. Plain and simple we’re just exposing allot more of the formation for production. That’s where your 30 to forty percent numbers come from. Instead of drilling 12 vertical wells I can drill one horizontal and get just as much access to the formation.


36 posted on 11/18/2013 3:49:24 AM PST by Dusty Road
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To: ckilmer
What do we mean by “oil in place”

Oil (often lumping together all petroleum, like kerogen, bitumn, natural gas liquids, etc) in the ground.

Think of taking a bucket of sand, packed in as tight as possible. There is still room in the bucket with sand filled to the rim. Pour in water until it is soaked full.

You could drill to the bottom, stick in a pipe and suck out some of the water, but you would never draw it all out; that sand is going to stay wet. Same thing with oil.

The smaller the volume of the individual holes in the rock containing oil, the higher the surface area to volume ratio. Billions time billions of tiny holes connected together by cracks in the rock. If you could perfectly remove the oil in the holes, you would still leave oil coating all the surfaces.

37 posted on 11/18/2013 5:13:17 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney
So from reading this am I correct to say that the faster fall in production of the shale oil wells is not due to all the oil being drained out compared to traditional oil wells, but ? the ability to get at the rest of the 80 % of potential oil that is left in the play with current technology.
So the future prospect of this all in spite what OPEC says and the other propagandists say, we will have plenty of oil in the future and production if we are able to get at it when the technology improves.
Hope they manage it well to where they can keep the current production going over all until they can improve on that technology.
38 posted on 11/18/2013 3:25:37 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: bert
It doesn’t matter...

I'm leaning that way myself. What does matter is the tremendous and disproportionate leverage the Middle East has had over the market for half a century. A lot of things change if it's broken. We'll see.

39 posted on 11/18/2013 3:29:26 PM PST by Billthedrill
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To: usconservative
" If we look at declining energy costs combined with rising labor costs in Asia-Pacific, the conditions are shaping up nicely for a manufacturing renaissance in America. "

With new production plants built with newer techknology and leaner production and leaner production costs.
40 posted on 11/18/2013 3:29:38 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: ROCKLOBSTER
" So, if everyone starts fracking....will oil go dirt cheap again? "
Ask Thackney, if the price of oil goes down to a certain point the oil boom would die because there is no incentive to invest and to go out and look for new oil plays.
Thackney ? what if they can reduce the price of production ?
Would not it naturally the price of oil go down anyway ?
Another element that needs to come into play here is the demand side of things.
If the USA can cut the consumption of all it's energy with better technologies that make the most out of all of our current fuels, raw materials that we use we would be in even a greater shape.
More efficient homes, more efficient transportation, more efficient cars, more efficient production, so on and so on.( and no, I am not a screaming wacko environmentalist, but it's smart to use what we have wisely )
The USA can't rest on it's laurels and go back to the way we use to do things 50 60 years ago.
The USA must, must, must get more competitive and remain competitive in all fields, including science, manufacturing, education, banking so on and so on.
Get the government out of all education and privatize all schools and education in this country.
41 posted on 11/18/2013 3:41:02 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: ROCKLOBSTER
Just keep a good eye on what Boeing does with where it decides to place their new 777-X production.
Starve the union beasts slowly, I hope.
Can't blame any company that uses robots to build things, and some times better than humans to cut costs.
Those workers would have to go back to school and learn how to operate a robot then.
42 posted on 11/18/2013 3:44:02 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: American Constitutionalist
Both traditional plays and tight formations like shale fall in production due to loss of oil that is free to move through the formation. Shales typically have a much harder time to get the movement of oil due to low permability. That is why hydraulic fracturing is typically used. To create cracks that allow the oil to move to the well bore.

Without enhanced oil recovery methods, neither shale or traditional wells are going to typically produce more than 10~20% of the total oil in the ground. We have been using enhanced oil recovery methods like water flood, CO2 injection, etc for a long time in the country. Some reading on the concepts: http://www.csur.com/sites/default/files/Understanding_TightOil_FINAL.pdf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_oil_recovery

43 posted on 11/18/2013 3:45:49 PM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: ckilmer
If there is a drastic cut in demand for oil, or rather gasoline in the next 10-15-20 years then I hope those oil companies don't sit on their laurels and just watch it happen.
Rather ? invest in another and new areas so they don't get stuck like the Big 3 auto manufactures did in the early 70's.
Hope they invest in new types of fuel, or new business.
There will always be a need for crude oil in other areas like raw materials unless someone comes up with new technologies for that.
Hope those oil companies don't watch the whole bottom drop out of oil, rather gasoline and sit there holding the bag with no where to go.
They need to start planning now to see where everything is going and what would happen when and if does when the demand for gasoline drops permanently.
44 posted on 11/18/2013 3:53:29 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: The Antiyuppie
Correction : " I’m all for this, but I hope everybody understands that this buys us more LIMITED amount of time "

As in ? it moves the goal posts out a little furter and gives us a better fighting chance.
However ? we have pleanty of coal as a reserve in case we run out to use to produce electrical power.
Actually with a ICE or rather a internal combustion engine in a car ? there are another ways to power a car other than gasoline.
During WWII in Europe they even use Syngas from wood to run cars and trucks.
Diesel ? Can be produced from a non-food stock plant called: Canola, or rapeseed that farmers can grow as their winter crop.
The end of crude oil as we know it would not be the end of the world as there are other ways to run engines or power electricity, it just won't be at the levels as we know it now.
It won't be the cave age or stone age.

45 posted on 11/18/2013 4:04:53 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: ckilmer
Thorium reactors power plants making electricity safe and cheap would make a hydrogen economy and infrastructure more practical and cheaper.
46 posted on 11/18/2013 4:08:39 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: American Constitutionalist

Thorium reactors power plants making electricity safe and cheap would make a hydrogen economy and infrastructure more practical and cheaper.
.............
agree. lots of agreement in fact all over. however, the feds are the last to know. they are wedded to current nuclear contractors who don’t much believe in innovation.


47 posted on 11/18/2013 6:27:01 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: American Constitutionalist

If there is a drastic cut in demand for oil, or rather gasoline in the next 10-15-20 years then I hope those oil companies don’t sit on their laurels and just watch it happen.
...........
actually this is the prediction of shell oil. that gasoline will fall off sharply starting about 2035-2040
http://gas2.org/2013/11/07/shell-lays-predictions-future-energy/

I think it will come sooner. Maybe starting around 2025. the tell will come in 2016. if tesla is able to produce an electric car that can go over 200 miles on a charge for 30k—then the volumes will start to ramp. but it will still be 10 years before they even get 5-7 percent of the automobile market.


48 posted on 11/18/2013 6:33:25 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer
That's when the Thorium reactors come in handy for they would really open up the real electric 2nd industrial revolution.
I have no problem with using or having a electric car so as long as I can afford it and it's practical.
Right now electric cars are only practical in urban areas.
Get it down to where it only takes a hour to charge, for that's the average time most people shop at a mall and a full charge gives you over 200 miles.
Have no problem with a hydrogen economy either.
Have to get people truly educated with the facts about hydrogen instead parroting the ignorant sayings of those who fear hydrogen.
Hydrogen is about as safe to use in a car as LP or natural gas.
If hydrogen is stored in a strong tank and handled correctly it is safe.
Besides they have done accident tests with hydrogen and it is proven that hydrogen is even safer in a accident than gasoline.
Hydrogen is dissipated faster into the air than gasoline therefore safer for the occupant if there is a accident.
Gasoline tends to gling or stay around a while like napalm.
The truth is ? on the Hindenburg ? the material that they used on the outside of the dirigible was also flammable.
Yes Hydrogen is very explosive and flammable but it got a bad rap from the Hindenburg accident.
Check out Roy McCalister's videos Hydrogen 101.
He makes a good case for a hydrogen economy.
They even use hydrogen in Hong Kong as a cooking gas.
Did you know ? the exhaust from a hydrogen burning engine or stove is harmless ?
49 posted on 11/18/2013 11:16:52 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: thackney
In other words, to put it shortly, it's the viscosity of the oil that flows through the rock formation ? correct ? and so to speak hit up against a rock wall.
So what they do is put microscopic blasted holes in the rock to allow it to flow.
Perforating the rock.
50 posted on 11/18/2013 11:20:58 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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