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14 in í14, cuz it ainít happening in Ď16 (Vanity)
Vanity | November 18, 2013 | ConservativeInPa

Posted on 11/18/2013 4:27:24 PM PST by ConservativeInPA

The facts
1. There are 21 US Senate seats held by Democrats in the 2014 election.
2. There are nine US Senate seats held by Democrats in the 2016 election. This is likely to be 10 due to a special election in HI in 2014.
3. Republicans need to pick up six senate seats to have a majority.

The Analysis
The failures of ObamaCare and broken promises by Democrat senators create a target rich environment in 2014. This is a year Republicans have to do well. Winning a majority in the senate by only one seat or maintaining the status quo is not the definition of doing well. It would be a four year setback to 2018 because there just are not that many Democrat senators to beat in 2016. Please read the following list and choose seats that Republicans are likely to win in 2016:

CA - Barbara Boxer (D)
CO - Michael Bennet (D)
CT - Richard Blumenthal (D)
HI - TBD in 2014 special (D)
MD - Barbara Mikulski (D)
NV - Harry Reid (D)
NY - Chuck Schumer (D)
OR - Ron Wyden (D)
VT - Patrick Leahy (D)
WA - Patty Murray (D)

I don’t find this too encouraging, although I’d love to see Dingy Harry and Chucky Schumer lose. I just don’t think most of these seats are in reach given the states involved. 2014 is a different story, hence the title of this post, “14 in ’14”.

I know that a 14 seat pick up is really not exactly realistic, but I like challenging goals and I think the political climate across America is ripe for such Republican success. Here’s a list of 2014 Democrats seats:

AK - Mark Begich (D)
AR - Mark Pryor (D)
CO - Mark Udall (D)
DE - Chris Coons (D)
HI - Brian Schatz (D)
IA - Tom Harkin (D) - Retiring
IL - Dick Durbin (D)
LA - Mary Landrieu (D)
MA - Ed Markey (D)
ME - Susan Collins (R)
MI - Carl Levin (D)
MN - Al Franken (D)
MT - Max Baucus (D) - Retiring
NC - Kay Hagan (D)
NH - Jeanne Shaheen (D)
NJ - Cory Booker (D)
NM - Tom Udall (D)
OR - Jeff Merkley (D)
RI - Jack Reed (D)
SD - Tim Johnson (D) - Retiring
VA - Mark Warner (D)
WV - Jay Rockefeller (D) - Retiring

(If you noticed Susan Collins in the list, it was intentional, just my warped sense of humor.)

I think DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, and RI are off the board. There would have to be a complete melt down in the Democrat party to pick up any of these states.

AK, AR, IA, LA, MT, NC, SD and WV are winnable – that gives the Republicans more than a majority in the Senate. There also a chance to pick up CO, MI, MN, NH, OR and VA. That gives us the 14 in ’14 to target. I’m not saying we can win all of those seats, but the this last group, VA, is the most possible as long as there isn’t a Democrat in Libertarian disguise running. With Levin retiring in MI, and that lying asshat Franken in MN, I think there will be interesting races if Republicans can find competent challengers. NH is an outside shot, but I think NH has too many illegal immigrants from MA to recover. I’m hoping some western sensibility finds its way into CO and OR. The state senate recall elections in CO may have established enough grassroots to barely win. OR is a long shot, but in this environment it may be possible.


TOPICS: FReeper Editorial; US: Alaska; US: Arkansas; US: Colorado; US: Delaware; US: Hawaii; US: Illinois; US: Iowa; US: Louisiana; US: Massachusetts; US: Michigan; US: Minnesota; US: Montana; US: Nevada; US: New Hampshire; US: New Jersey; US: New Mexico; US: North Carolina; US: Oregon; US: Rhode Island; US: South Dakota; US: Virginia; US: Washington; US: West Virginia; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2014election; 2014midterms; 2016election; alaska; arkansas; bho44; colorado; delaware; election2014; election2016; goppickups; hawaii; illinois; iowa; louisiana; massachusetts; michigan; minnesota; montana; nevada; newhampshire; newjersey; newmexico; northcarolina; oregon; rhodeisland; southdakota; virginia; washington; westvirginia
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Thoughts?
1 posted on 11/18/2013 4:27:24 PM PST by ConservativeInPA
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To: ConservativeInPA

CO - Michael Bennet (D)
NV - Harry Reid (D)
WA - Patty Murray (D)

Reid will likely enter the election less popular than he was in 2010. If we can find a decent candidate, he could be taken down. And our bench ain’t bad in Nevada from what I hear.

Bennet is a terrible politician. He won by a small margin because Buck made some dumb campaign decision. He can be taken out next time.

And Murray, I think we almost beat her last time too. Perhaps another shot in 2016? Weirder things have happened.


2 posted on 11/18/2013 4:30:23 PM PST by Viennacon (i)
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To: ConservativeInPA

We would have won Bennet’s seat the first time around if we hadn’t been saddled with an inexperienced candidate with no name recognition and a bad case of foot-in-mouth disease. But then I count six seats total we lost that way. If we saddle ourselves with another raft of losers, we won’t get very far.


3 posted on 11/18/2013 4:34:35 PM PST by colorado tanker
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To: colorado tanker
If we saddle ourselves with another raft of losers, we won’t get very far.

That is exactly why this needs to be taken seriously.

4 posted on 11/18/2013 4:36:21 PM PST by ConservativeInPA (Molon Labe - shall not be questioned)
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bookmark


5 posted on 11/18/2013 4:36:23 PM PST by Repeal The 17th (We have met the enemy and he is us.)
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To: ConservativeInPA
Thoughts?

Having seen what the Gutless Obsolete Pretender party did last time they controlled the House and Senate, nothing much will come of it the next time around.

Look to be left wondering why you even bother voting for these worthless fools just like last time.

Then buy more guns, ammo, and non-perishable food.

6 posted on 11/18/2013 4:37:10 PM PST by EricT. (Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. Big brother is watching you.)
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To: ConservativeInPA

Factor in having to vote McConnell out in the KY General.


7 posted on 11/18/2013 4:37:45 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: ConservativeInPA

As for your analysis of 2014, I see it like this.

We need six seats.

The path to these in order of simplicity is as follows (subject to change).

South Dakota, West Virginia, Arkansas, Montana, Louisiana, and finally Alaska or North Carolina.

Past that, I see victory more likely in Michigan than in Iowa. I’m seeing this because Iowa seems to be trending Dem, where as Michigan is trending Repub. It’s the trajectories. With Detroit emptied, there is a real shot in Michigan to win in the senate and the polls show it. Dem’s aren’t helped there by their poor candidate. They have a top tier recruit in Iowa, but their guy in Michigan is a joke.

New Hampshire could come into play depending on who is running. Shaheen is put at risk because NH is the only North Eastern state experiencing red-level premium rises. She can be taken out.

Colorado is likely the next easiest, depending a lot on if there is a real backlash at the state legislature level against the radical lib agenda in that state, but Udall is a formidable Dem.

Oregon would be the real outside shot, mainly because Merkley is about as electrifying as a brick, and he won by a tiny percentage on the Obama wave last time. It’s unfortunate our bench in that state is weak.


8 posted on 11/18/2013 4:37:58 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: ConservativeInPA
The election is a long way off but I think Terri Land has a good chance of picking up the Levin seat if the GOPe pulls their heads out of their butts soon enough.

The Democrat running for the seat is representative Gary Peters who is now running away from Obamacare and Land is hammering away on it.

We're already getting ads slapping Peters.

Gary Peters, Pure Washington
9 posted on 11/18/2013 4:38:43 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: Viennacon
We're getting ads against Gary Peters in Michigan. Here is the newest one.

"Gary Peters' Friends"
10 posted on 11/18/2013 4:42:16 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: ConservativeInPA

There’s nobody I’d like to see lose more than the Lying Asshat Franke, with the exception of Dick Dirtbag, because unfortunately he is one of my Senators - but I agree he’s more likely to get hit by a bus.

SD should be an R. MN can be crazy (Jesse Ventura and Al Franken) but like IL the rural areas are pretty solid R and the DFL probably isn’t turning many of them.

What’s needed in all cases is strong, passionate, conservative messaging. I’m not hearing it and time’s a wastin’...

The GOP sure as hell isn’t going to do it!


11 posted on 11/18/2013 4:46:21 PM PST by bigbob (The best way to get a bad law repealed is to enforce it strictly. Abraham Lincoln)
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To: ConservativeInPA

The presumption here is that informed voters will make the difference.

The Democratic ground game is light-years ahead and will tip the balance in any state where races are within 5%.


12 posted on 11/18/2013 4:48:20 PM PST by research99
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To: ConservativeInPA; colorado tanker; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; NFHale; Clintonfatigued

“If we saddle ourselves with another raft of losers, we won’t get very far.

That is exactly why this needs to be taken seriously.”

I’m glad you two “get it”. I’ve had luddites here try to argue with me in the past that candidates need to have media savvy, especially when the “gotcha” comments start.

One idiot replied: “We should nominate Hitler, he was a good public speaker.”

Intelligent, eh?

The Angles, Akins and Mourdocks need to STFU and go wait for Lawrence Welk to come on. Because not only to they blow very winnable elections; they make the GOP look idiotic as a whole, especially with a MSM that’s waiting for any perceived mistake.


13 posted on 11/18/2013 4:49:39 PM PST by GOPsterinMA (You're a very weird person, Yossarian.)
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To: ConservativeInPA

Looks like we could do 11 easily enough. More would be better and whoever runs MUST run on the ObamaCCare fiasco, do their homework and let people know what is coming next if/when it gets fixed. IE. Married couples tax of 10K- 15K...that would more than do a lot of people in. We’d be forced to sell our home and find a trailer. We are on a fixed income. And there is MUCH more, according to Ted Cruz. We ain’t seen nothin’ yet!


14 posted on 11/18/2013 4:49:53 PM PST by Shery (in APO Land)
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To: bigbob
MN can be crazy (Jesse Ventura and Al Franken) but like IL the rural areas are pretty solid R and the DFL probably isn’t turning many of them.

I have family outside Duluth and in Minneapolis. They are DFL and an embarrassment to the rest of my mostly sane family. I am hope they get so discouraged that they just don't vote. If they do vote, it will be the same as in the past. There is no talking sense to them.

15 posted on 11/18/2013 4:55:48 PM PST by ConservativeInPA (Molon Labe - shall not be questioned)
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To: ConservativeInPA

If the GOP stabs the conservative candidates in the back (like Cuccinelli and Akin) or forces liberal republicans (like McCain and Romney) down our throats, we won't gain the Senate. Period. It's that simple. If the GOP puts their backs to oars for conservative candidates, we will gain a majority in the Senate. Easily. Again, it's that simple. The real question is ... when the GOP-E disappoints us yet again and steers the elections away from victory once more ... will enough conservatives rise up against them to win anyway? We almost had that with Cuccinelli ... almost.


16 posted on 11/18/2013 5:05:15 PM PST by so_real ( "The Congress of the United States recommends and approves the Holy Bible for use in all schools.")
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To: ConservativeInPA

I’ve got a lesbian cousin and her “wife” in Minnesota.


17 posted on 11/18/2013 5:05:40 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: research99
The presumption here is that informed voters will make the difference. The Democratic ground game is light-years ahead and will tip the balance in any state where races are within 5%.

True. Though I bet that with real voter fraud and vote harvesting mechanisms curtailed and stopped, however, informed voters would make the difference BIG TIME.

Simple. Must be legal citizen to vote, 21 or older, ID required, presence at the polls required except for extreme need (where mail-in ballots are used). If you are able-bodied and dependent on food stamps or other government-funded charity, you abandon your vote franchise. No bussing and on-site harvesting votes from various care facilities by political organizations.

If sensible, fair steps had been taken to defend and protect the franchise before now, we'd be a freer, more prosperous and probably more moral nation.

18 posted on 11/18/2013 5:08:49 PM PST by Finny (Thy word is a lamp unto my feet, and a light unto my path. -- Psalm 119:105)
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To: cripplecreek

Must be a Lutheran thing. lol


19 posted on 11/18/2013 5:13:31 PM PST by ConservativeInPA (Molon Labe - shall not be questioned)
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To: ConservativeInPA
It would be a four year setback to 2018 because there just are not that many Democrat senators to beat in 2016. Please read the following list and choose seats that Republicans are likely to win in 2016:

Factor in seats the GOP could possibly lose in 2016 because they're all in solidly blue states: Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and even Florida if Rubio keeps waffling. The GOP needs the right candidate in 2016, one with coattails. I don't think that Christie is that.

20 posted on 11/18/2013 5:13:33 PM PST by DoodleDawg
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