14 in ’14, cuz it ain’t happening in ‘16 (Vanity)

Vanity | November 18, 2013 | ConservativeInPa

[ConservativeInPA]

The facts
1. There are 21 US Senate seats held by Democrats in the 2014 election.
2. There are nine US Senate seats held by Democrats in the 2016 election. This is likely to be 10 due to a special election in HI in 2014.
3. Republicans need to pick up six senate seats to have a majority.

The Analysis
The failures of ObamaCare and broken promises by Democrat senators create a target rich environment in 2014. This is a year Republicans have to do well. Winning a majority in the senate by only one seat or maintaining the status quo is not the definition of doing well. It would be a four year setback to 2018 because there just are not that many Democrat senators to beat in 2016. Please read the following list and choose seats that Republicans are likely to win in 2016:

CA - Barbara Boxer (D)
CO - Michael Bennet (D)
CT - Richard Blumenthal (D)
HI - TBD in 2014 special (D)
MD - Barbara Mikulski (D)
NV - Harry Reid (D)
NY - Chuck Schumer (D)
OR - Ron Wyden (D)
VT - Patrick Leahy (D)
WA - Patty Murray (D)

I don’t find this too encouraging, although I’d love to see Dingy Harry and Chucky Schumer lose. I just don’t think most of these seats are in reach given the states involved. 2014 is a different story, hence the title of this post, “14 in ’14”.

I know that a 14 seat pick up is really not exactly realistic, but I like challenging goals and I think the political climate across America is ripe for such Republican success. Here’s a list of 2014 Democrats seats:

AK - Mark Begich (D)
AR - Mark Pryor (D)
CO - Mark Udall (D)
DE - Chris Coons (D)
HI - Brian Schatz (D)
IA - Tom Harkin (D) - Retiring
IL - Dick Durbin (D)
LA - Mary Landrieu (D)
MA - Ed Markey (D)
ME - Susan Collins (R)
MI - Carl Levin (D)
MN - Al Franken (D)
MT - Max Baucus (D) - Retiring
NC - Kay Hagan (D)
NH - Jeanne Shaheen (D)
NJ - Cory Booker (D)
NM - Tom Udall (D)
OR - Jeff Merkley (D)
RI - Jack Reed (D)
SD - Tim Johnson (D) - Retiring
VA - Mark Warner (D)
WV - Jay Rockefeller (D) - Retiring

(If you noticed Susan Collins in the list, it was intentional, just my warped sense of humor.)

I think DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, and RI are off the board. There would have to be a complete melt down in the Democrat party to pick up any of these states.

AK, AR, IA, LA, MT, NC, SD and WV are winnable – that gives the Republicans more than a majority in the Senate. There also a chance to pick up CO, MI, MN, NH, OR and VA. That gives us the 14 in ’14 to target. I’m not saying we can win all of those seats, but the this last group, VA, is the most possible as long as there isn’t a Democrat in Libertarian disguise running. With Levin retiring in MI, and that lying asshat Franken in MN, I think there will be interesting races if Republicans can find competent challengers. NH is an outside shot, but I think NH has too many illegal immigrants from MA to recover. I’m hoping some western sensibility finds its way into CO and OR. The state senate recall elections in CO may have established enough grassroots to barely win. OR is a long shot, but in this environment it may be possible.

[cripplecreek]

True. Though I bet that with real voter fraud and vote harvesting mechanisms curtailed and stopped, however, informed voters would make the difference BIG TIME.

That is one of the things driving Michigan to the right.

[Blackirish]

Akin should of had his tounge cut out. Maybe then some of these nimrods would think before saying something that scares woman and children.

[DaxtonBrown]

If people got behind me and helped support my expanded biography of Reid “Harry: Money Mob and Influence”, he might just be vulnerable in 2016.
http://www.futurnamics.com/reid.php

[okie01]

If the GOP stabs the conservative candidates in the back (like Cuccinelli and Akin)...

With all due respect, Akin stabbed himself.

His ineptitude doesn't warrant a conservative's defense.

[Finny]

Again, it's that simple. The real question is ... when the GOP-E disappoints us yet again and steers the elections away from victory once more ... will enough conservatives rise up against them to win anyway? We almost had that with Cuccinelli ... almost.

You said it. Simple and straightforward. Liberal Republicans are the deciding factor to lose.

I kinda think there should be a back-up plan or at least serious consideration because daaaaaaayum, it sure is a liklihood that we'll be looking at (among other things) a Christie/Romney/McCain type as the determined presidential nominee in 2014, the GOPe again calling what it stupidly misidentifies as a "bluff." No bluff; people refuse to vote FOR something against their own moral and financial intersts. The GOPe wants them to vote "against" the Democrat, but down deep, folks know that's bull.

So when we're looking at that in early 2014, what are we conservative voters going to do to salvage as much as we can? We might as well be looking ahead.

[Finny]

Er ... presidential nominee in 2016 ... duh!

[justrepublican]

With our SOS Al’s a shoe in.

[Windflier]

If you noticed Susan Collins in the list, it was intentional, just my warped sense of humor.

You should have included John Cornyn (R-TX) in that list of Democrats...

[JLS]

Need 6 of:

AK - Mark Begich (D)
AR - Mark Pryor (D)
CO - Mark Udall (D)
DE - Chris Coons (D)
IA - Tom Harkin (D) - Retiring
LA - Mary Landrieu (D)
MN - Al Franken (D)
MT - Max Baucus (D) - Retiring
NC - Kay Hagan (D)
NH - Jeanne Shaheen (D))
NM - Tom Udall (D)
SD - Tim Johnson (D) - Retiring
VA - Mark Warner (D)
WV - Jay Rockefeller (D) - Retiring

Maybe I should have CO and NM out of reach too. Still 6 of 14 or 6 of 12 should not be out of the question.

[eccentric]

I agree. I saw that first list and thought “Those guys are safe.” So yes, those in ‘14 are the ones to defeat.

[Chaguito]

My thought: It’s all a pipe dream, unless the Republicans begin very soon explaining that the goal is complete repeal of Obamacare, and replacement with something people can understand. Then explain the Republican alternative.

Over and over, and in terms that are crystal clear and not wonkish.

There will be no large gains on the basis of outrage against Obamacare. The public doesn’t trust the Republicans to govern any more than they do the Democrats.

Substance and real hope, or kiss the country good-bye.

[cableguymn]

R’s won MN last go around. it was the failure of the recount that lost it for them.

I hope we (I am in Minnesota) have learned our lesson and we can kick the adult diaper wearing flaming lib out on his ass.

[cableguymn]

At least are SOS can read the writing on the wall and is calling it quits.

[Jane Long]

Bookmarked.

[trustnooneever]

no chance in MN,OR or VA....and we will blow a couple of ones we should win...someone will say something stupid

[erkelly]

Too much corruption here in Nevada, Dingy owns the seat. He always wins by just a few votes, just enough fraud to put him over the top. This time he needed a whole lot of fraud. We will never be rid of Dingy. He has said that he will not run again but who can believe anything he says.

[erkelly]

I don’t know about the other states, but Angle was several points in the lead on election eve. The fraud was massive. It is utterly impossible to defeat Dingy, his fraud machine is just too good.

[GOPsterinMA]

Some fraud, but she was a perrenial loser that scared people. That’s what I heard from people in NV.

Reid should be long gone. He’s not.

[so_real]

With all due respect, I read what Akin said. It was good spin fodder for the liberals. But it was not offensive or scary. It wasn't even the liberal media that kept bringing his statement up. The GOPe media kept hashing and rehashing it as they drove the knife deep between Akin's shoulder blades. You may not care for Akin; you may think what he said was a mistake. But he was the *only* conservative on the ballot and could have, should have, won that Senate seat.

Here's a blast from the past for you: "Christie calls on GOP to reject Akin"

So Chris Christie stabs Akin in the back while Jim DeMint's SCF pledges $290,000 to Akin's campaign. Who do you trust to point you in the direction of solid conservatives: Chris Christie or Jim DeMint? I know the correct answer, and so do you.

[so_real]

It sure does feel like the GOPe is going to add Chris Christie to the string of tepid republican losers. I've already stated I won't vote for him. In the days that come I'll draw republican ire for that (just as I did refusing to support Romney). But, clearly, I was not alone in my stand. I'm ready to support another Virgil Goode. Heck, though I am a birther (proudly so) and do not believe Cruz is a constitutional natural born citizen, we are in revolution mode these days and I'd vote for him if he ran against the liberals (GOP and DEM alike). I guess we'll wait to see who is on the ballot.