Posted on 11/18/2013 4:27:24 PM PST by ConservativeInPA
The facts
1. There are 21 US Senate seats held by Democrats in the 2014 election.
2. There are nine US Senate seats held by Democrats in the 2016 election. This is likely to be 10 due to a special election in HI in 2014.
3. Republicans need to pick up six senate seats to have a majority.
The Analysis
The failures of ObamaCare and broken promises by Democrat senators create a target rich environment in 2014. This is a year Republicans have to do well. Winning a majority in the senate by only one seat or maintaining the status quo is not the definition of doing well. It would be a four year setback to 2018 because there just are not that many Democrat senators to beat in 2016. Please read the following list and choose seats that Republicans are likely to win in 2016:
CA - Barbara Boxer (D)
CO - Michael Bennet (D)
CT - Richard Blumenthal (D)
HI - TBD in 2014 special (D)
MD - Barbara Mikulski (D)
NV - Harry Reid (D)
NY - Chuck Schumer (D)
OR - Ron Wyden (D)
VT - Patrick Leahy (D)
WA - Patty Murray (D)
I don’t find this too encouraging, although I’d love to see Dingy Harry and Chucky Schumer lose. I just don’t think most of these seats are in reach given the states involved. 2014 is a different story, hence the title of this post, “14 in ’14”.
I know that a 14 seat pick up is really not exactly realistic, but I like challenging goals and I think the political climate across America is ripe for such Republican success. Here’s a list of 2014 Democrats seats:
AK - Mark Begich (D)
AR - Mark Pryor (D)
CO - Mark Udall (D)
DE - Chris Coons (D)
HI - Brian Schatz (D)
IA - Tom Harkin (D) - Retiring
IL - Dick Durbin (D)
LA - Mary Landrieu (D)
MA - Ed Markey (D)
ME - Susan Collins (R)
MI - Carl Levin (D)
MN - Al Franken (D)
MT - Max Baucus (D) - Retiring
NC - Kay Hagan (D)
NH - Jeanne Shaheen (D)
NJ - Cory Booker (D)
NM - Tom Udall (D)
OR - Jeff Merkley (D)
RI - Jack Reed (D)
SD - Tim Johnson (D) - Retiring
VA - Mark Warner (D)
WV - Jay Rockefeller (D) - Retiring
(If you noticed Susan Collins in the list, it was intentional, just my warped sense of humor.)
I think DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, and RI are off the board. There would have to be a complete melt down in the Democrat party to pick up any of these states.
AK, AR, IA, LA, MT, NC, SD and WV are winnable – that gives the Republicans more than a majority in the Senate. There also a chance to pick up CO, MI, MN, NH, OR and VA. That gives us the 14 in ’14 to target. I’m not saying we can win all of those seats, but the this last group, VA, is the most possible as long as there isn’t a Democrat in Libertarian disguise running. With Levin retiring in MI, and that lying asshat Franken in MN, I think there will be interesting races if Republicans can find competent challengers. NH is an outside shot, but I think NH has too many illegal immigrants from MA to recover. I’m hoping some western sensibility finds its way into CO and OR. The state senate recall elections in CO may have established enough grassroots to barely win. OR is a long shot, but in this environment it may be possible.
Just dumb.
It was a fumbled attempt to explain his otherwise admirable position. He tried to make an excuse for himself and, evidently, totally oblivious the fact that rape can result in pregnancy -- and often does.
Somebody so unprepared to explain why he believes what he believes -- or so maladroit as to engage in such a weak defense -- has no business being a serious candidate for U.S. Senator.
The likes of Karl Rove and Chris Christie should both earn our enmity for piling on as they did. But Akin deserves disdain, as well, for being too stupid (or selfish) to recognize the mess he'd made of things.
DeMint is the only party who did the right thing. But, even then, I wonder if his $290,000 might've been better invested in another conservative candidate.
The race didn’t end up close. Fraud was NOT the margin of victory for Reid. She blew it, cause she’s a horrible candidate. At the time a few of us warned that she was a bad choice.
Carl Levin is retiring at the end of this term.
We need 15 to get to 60 if that’s what you’re driving at. Remember the NJ seat is back in rat hands now.
2016 Senate is bad because we have most of those seats already. Getting 60 before 2018 is very unlikely.
If you erase every poor nomination, boneheaded mistake, and act of vote splitting from the past 3 cycles we could have 60 now.
Our target list for 2014
Tier one (Open rat seats, Expected gains): WV, SD, MT
Tier two (incumbent rats, should be wins but we may not get them all): AK, AR, LA, NC (It’s worth noting we’ve not beaten more than 2 incumbent rat Senators in any cycle since 1980)
Tier three (Open seats, could go either way) MI, IA (we have a stronger candidate in Michigan)
We also have to defend Kentucky and possibly Georgia from the rats.
Beyond that, races could develop but I have low exceptions for beating the likes of Jeanne Shaheen or Mark Udall. Franken should be meat but we have no strong candidate running.
For 2016, Reid and Bennet appear to be the only rats likely to be vulnerable (Murray could be too) and we have a lot of seats to defend.
Reid Bennett and Murray were my picks too. I really hope the party in Washington state starts looking for a standout now in preparation.
I’m not so worried anymore about Georgia and Kentucky. I would be if Obamacare wasn’t in ruins, but at the end of the day, both Grimey and Nunn will have D next to their names in reasonably red states. All you have to do is tie them to Obama and they won’t get out of the starting gate.
I have previously articulated that I rate Arkansas as being easier than Montana. Let’s remember how badly Blanche Lincoln got creamed. And that was when Obamacare’s disaster was only in theory. Pryor will not survive 2014.
Montana meanwhile, has a strong Rat party, and a weak Rep party, which puts us at a disadvantage in spite of the red tint of the state.
Getting 60 is virtually impossible before 2018, but much of what follows on from that will depend on who is president after 2016.
And as an aside, FCUK Krispy Kreme for holding that senate election when he did. He could have postponed it to 2014, and Lonegan would have had a real shot against Booker. This alone should disqualify fatboy. He kneecapped a conservative for his own political gains.
GA depends on if Broun is nominated, no worries if he’s not.
I feel good about AR and NC. Less confident on LA and especially AK, they like their incumbent porkmasters up north.
Chisty the Hutt could have at least put the Senate election on the same days as his. He DID have coattails, most people voted GOP for state legislature, only gerrymandering kept the gains so small. That and the NRSC could have resulted in Lonegan winning.
If he could have delayed it until next year that would have been even better, 1 less Senate rat for as long as possible.
I was worried about Alaska, but I’m not any longer. Begich lead Sullivan by 2 points in the latest Harper poll taken in October. That’s bad news for an incumbent, and Obamacare has only gotten worse since.
Unfortunately in Louisiana, I can’t find any good polling done recently enough.
With LA ones always has to worry about the stupid jungle primary. We’re lucky that Vitter won in 2004 without a runoff.
I think Landrieu would have lost 1-on-1 in Nov 2002.
Am I correct in saying that there is not a primary at all for the parties in Louisiana? Everyone just runs for the office, right?
bttt
Yes, all candidates for all parties run in the primary which is on election day in November, if no one gets over 50% then the top 2 go to the December runoff.
Some time ago they abolished it for federal elections but swiftly reinstated it. I hate it. And it’s what elected this RINO in the special elections, democrats joined with a few idiots on our side.
New MT Polls from PPP, Daines up 52-35 on Walsh and 51-36 on ex-RINO Bohlinger.
They also have one from the MS primary, Cochran up 44-38 over State Sen. Chris McDaniel. He’s looking highly vulnerable.
More from MS, I just learned (apparently this broke last month) that former rat Rep. Gene Taylor is considering challenging Palazzo in the GOP primary for CD-4, Palazzo currently has 1 challenger, Paulbot Tavish Kelly. Taylor clearly has not actually had a change of heart about his party affiliation and just wants back in, piece of crap.
http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2013/10/gene_taylor_contemplating_rare.php
Polls in the Florida 13 House special from “St Pete Polls”, Rat Alex Stink leads Republican David Jolly 49-35 and leads GOP State Rep. Kathleen Peters (who just entered the race) by 50-31. I’m somewhat surprised that Jolly is polling better than a local State Rep. I presume Jolly is already busy raising his name ID, appears to be working.
Franken only won the first time because of a third party spoiler, a Ross Perot Reform Party guy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Minnesota,_2008
Republicans will lose all kinds of winnable races more and more often unless they have runoff election policies in place that do not allow anyone to be considered a winner until over 50% of the voters have selected their name.
If we had that policy elsewhere we could have defeated Franken and Mcauliffe to name two. That helps eliminate the libertarian/reform-style third party spoiler which is really the more frequent scenario in recent years.
Simply running off the top two in a multi-candidate election isn’t the best runoff system, but it’s fine in a 3-person race.
Taylor couldn’t win a GOP primary. He might’ve a decade ago, but all Palazzo has to do is remind the voters that Taylor PROUDLY cast a vote for Pelosi for Speaker and drew a standing ovation from every chamber moonbat.
I’m good with a general election runoff like GA has if no candidate reaches 45% in the November general election (following normal party primaries and runoffs). Franken would have lost 1 on 1, McAwful as well.
But under no circumstances should we allow democrats to choose between 2 Republicans or worse, have no Republican make the runoff. Republican primaries should be closed and a single Republican candidate should on the general election ballot. Jungle primaries blow. Cali is doing that now as well, with the primary before hand and the general in November. It worked up for us in one race, a rat leaning seat had a 2-Republican runoff, but it’s more likely to hurt us like it just did in LA where democrats helped elect the RINO.
In my state our Rat Governor Quinn may have lost 1 on 1 as well. The rat candidate for LT. Governor was forced off the ballot for domestic violence so he ran for Governor as an indie. We all laughed at the time but he ended up taking anti-Quinn democrat votes that could have ended up crossing over for us.
Similar to Dean Barkley getting anti-Franken democrat votes in MN.
Surprising poll results from Quinnipiac (whose results I believe Auh2orepublican once said get less and less accurate the further away from NY you are)
Mark Udall leads 2010 nominee (and IMO poor candidate who lost a race he should won) Ken Buck by only 45-42. Leads mustachioed State Sen. Randy Baumgardner (who’s campaign site is fairly crappy) by 44-39. 45-39 over State Senator Owen Hill. 43-40 over businessman Jaime McMillan. 45-38 over State Rep. Amy Stephens. And 45-36 over businessman Mark Aspiri.
Hickelpooper isn’t doing so hot either he leads by
46 - 41 percent over former U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo;
45 - 40 percent over Secretary of State Scott Gessler;
44 - 38 percent over State Sen. Greg Brophy;
44 - 40 percent over former State Senate Minority Leader Mike Kopp.
And former Marine Corp Brig. General Mark Bircher also entered the Florida 13 special GOP primary, filing closed yesterday. 3 Republicans, Alex Stink unopposed for the rat nod, and a Liartarian.
Q becomes less accurate the further away from *Connecticut* (specifically, New Haven) it polls.
I am amazed by the Colorado numbers. You see Cruz was tying Hilldog there???
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