We cooked the books real good!
Posted on 12/06/2013 5:45:15 AM PST by Zakeet
Last month, the expected NFP print was 120K, instead we got 204K. Today, the expectations was 185K, while the print, was almost an identical 203K, even as last month's was revised modestly lower to 200K. The unemployment rate dropped from 7.2%, which was also the expected, to only 7.0%. The Fed is looking at these numbers and thinking: "taper."
From the Establishment survey:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 203,000 in November. Job growth averaged 195,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In November, job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, health care, and manufacturing. (See table B-1.)
From the Household Survey:
Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.9 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.0 percent, declined in November. Among the unemployed, the number who reported being on temporary layoff decreased by 377,000. This largely reflects the return to work of federal employees who were furloughed in October due to the partial government shutdown. (See tables A-1 and A-11.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.7 percent), adult women (6.2 percent), teenagers (20.8 percent), whites (6.2 percent), blacks (12.5 percent), and Hispanics (8.7 percent) changed little in November. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.3 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks declined by 300,000 in November, partially reflecting the return to work of federal employees on furlough in October. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 4.1 million in November. These individuals accounted for 37.3 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 718,000 over the past 12 months. (See table A-12.)
The civilian labor force rose by 455,000 in November, after declining by 720,000 in October. The labor force participation rate changed little (63.0 percent) in November. Total employment as measured by the household survey increased by 818,000 over the month, following a decline of 735,000 in the prior month. This over-the-month increase in employment partly reflected the return to work of furloughed federal government employees. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.3 percentage point to 58.6 percent in November, reversing a decline of the same size in the prior month. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell by 331,000 to 7.7 million in November. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
In November, 2.1 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 409,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 762,000 discouraged workers in November, down by 217,000 from a year ago. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
We cooked the books real good!
Seasonal holiday hiring?
The Obama regime lies to us about everything else but they’d never lie to us about this. Nope! Uh uh! No way!
Bounce from the shut down, and the trickle effect on supporting businesses. Also, companies were working to get those inventories to those high levels.
Overall, for a single point, it’s positive. But this has to all be kept in context.
Damn! They were paid! I guess paid vacations count as unemployment, now!
How many of these “new” hires are working on the website for O care??
Among other things, they're counting the return of government workers temporarily suspended during the shutdown, plus a ton of pencil-whipped birth-death jobs, plus seasonal adjustments, plus they dropped a bunch of people who can't find jobs out of the equation.
We'll know more later today, but that undoubtedly accounts for the majority of the improvement.
I believe nothing coming from this government at this point.
7% unemployment would be a tragedy under a republican administration, yet the same 7% is the low point for the zero administration.
Just don’t count those who can work but gave up,
and we could get this rate down to 5% like it was in the late 90’s.
Not a good number at all. How many of these jobs are temporary part time hires for the Holiday’s/ In one article I read UPS alone is adding 20,000 temporary hires and JC Penny is adding about 5,000. There is also FEDEX who usually hires many thousands this time of year.
Yesterday a revised GDP number up to 3.2% in the 3rd qtr looks exciting until you realize all but 1.9% of it was for inventory building in anticipation of the Holiday’s. That leaves actual growth at 1.9 % which is LOWER than 2nd qtr GDP.
Consumer spending also fell and since this sort of spending is what drives almost 70% of the economy the numbers when parsed indicate an economy still suffering and dragging with consumer confidence at new lows.
Another worthless government statistic....who in his right mind believes this rubbish. Actual jobless rate...closer to 18-20%.
Federal employees going back to “work” shouldn’t count but did.
Ha. 7% my rear end.
Unemployment numbers, alone, do not tell the full story; except for the story required by the dhimmicraps and their bed-wetting overlord, Zero.
Unemployment can only correctly be interpreted in light of the labor participation rate.
An unemployment rate of 7% in an economy with 65% labor participation is a FAR CRY from a 7% unemployment rate in an economy with 90% labor participation.
Trendlines of the two indicators, overlaid one on the other, more completely tell the story of the current state of employment in the US. Further refining the trendline of either, to reflect seasonality and FTE data (part time jobs) would make it even more accurately reflective of the true employment picture.
Not only cooked the books, but they are counting the Temp Christmas hires, that at the end of Jan will be fired as they have served their purpose to facilitate Christmas shopping.
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