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Why Ukraineís protesters arenít going to get their way
QUARTZ ^ | December 10, 2013 | Mark Adomanis

Posted on 12/11/2013 8:42:34 AM PST by cunning_fish

Over the course of the day Monday, riot police cleared protesters from a number of Ukrainian government buildings including those housing the presidency, cabinet offices and parliament. The lack of violence now, compared to the brutal attacks two weeks ago, should not overshadow the fact that Ukraine remains firmly locked in a worsening political-economic crisis from which an exit is increasingly unlikely. To simplify things a bit: All of the politically realistic plans won’t do anything to solve the crisis and all of the plans that would solve the crisis are politically unrealistic. You can see this very clearly in the most recent deal cut by Yanukovych. On his way back from China, the Ukrainian President met with Vladimir Putin in Sochi and came to some sort of economic and trade agreement. Precise details have not yet been released, but it’s expected that the deal involves short-term financial support in exchange for Ukrainian promises to more closely integrate with the Russian-led customs union. This does precisely nothing to address the protesters’ concerns about economic, and eventually, political integration with the European Union while simultaneously distancing itself from Moscow. If anything, this actually seemed to galvanize the crowds in the streets. The only course of action that would meet the opposition’s demands, a signing of the association agreement with the European Union, is politically impossible. It would cause too much short-term harm to the Ukrainian economy by inflating an already huge current account deficit and would likely spark retaliatory Russian trade sanctions. It’s also worth considering that, at this point, signing the association agreement would be an unmitigated display of weakness, and that someone in Yanukovych’s position can ill afford that type of display...

(Excerpt) Read more at qz.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; Politics/Elections; Russia
KEYWORDS: eussr; obama; russia; soros; ukraine

1 posted on 12/11/2013 8:42:34 AM PST by cunning_fish
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To: cunning_fish

When the Nazis first invaded Russia, the people of the Ukraine welcomed the Germans as SAVIORS from the reality of STALIN’S Communist government. The depredations and famines of the 1930’s, unreported in the west were horrendous.
When the Russian armies recovered and drove out the Germans, the treatment of the Ukraine people was very bad.
QUESTION—how much of the passion and emotion of the Ukranian people from the brutal past could be fueling this desire to get a “divorce” from RUSSIA? I think the Ukrainian people have always wanted their complete freedom from Russia.


2 posted on 12/11/2013 8:56:30 AM PST by CaptainAmiigaf (NY TIMES: We print the news as it fits our views.)
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To: cunning_fish

Uh, Putin?


3 posted on 12/11/2013 9:02:28 AM PST by rktman (Under my plan(scheme), the price of EVERYTHING will necessarily skyrocket! Period.)
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To: CaptainAmiigaf

There are two versions of propaganda on Russian-Ukrainian relations. There are an Eastern (backed by Russian scholars) and Western (backed by European and American academia). None are true.
The reality is Holodomor hasn’t specifically targeted Ukrainians but the Russians wasn’t a good guys as well. Germans were more brutal to Ukrainians than the Soviets and it is a fact too.
Another fact is that about 20% of Ukrainians are actually Russians and they aren’t immigrants, another 40% of Ukrainians are pro-Russian.


4 posted on 12/11/2013 9:04:45 AM PST by cunning_fish
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To: cunning_fish

Can you cite a source for the “reality” of the Holdomor please?


5 posted on 12/11/2013 9:15:56 AM PST by edwinland
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To: cunning_fish

The protesters in the streets (Western Ukrainian Banderaschalters) are being galvanized by $25 in cash courtesy of George Soros.


6 posted on 12/11/2013 9:17:35 AM PST by jimbo123
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To: CaptainAmiigaf

You may not have heard, but the Nazis were a nightmare in Ukraine. They were welcomed in some areas, briefly. Then they began their mass murder depredations that were as bad as the Soviets.
In a sense, they were worse. The worst low-life pond scum on earth has got to be those who brutalize someone who thinks you might save them.
That’s like pulling a survivor from a life raft and raping them.

The truth is, Germans were nothing the Ukraine remembers as a happy time away from the Soviets. And the Soviet Russians were a nightmare too back then.

The only fair answer is to let Ukraine join both free trade groups. The EU and the Russian ones. Trade between Russia and the modern EU Reich could then be tariff free only by going through Ukraine. Ukraine could be a wealthy middleman of Swiss, Dutch, or Hong Kong proportions.

And the other issue is NATO. Russia isn’t going to want NATO bases a little over 200 miles from Moscow and Volgograd. (Stalingrad) They wont hand over their port at Sevastopol to the NATO fleet.

SO that’s my solution. Ukraine a unique free trade zone middleman between the EU and Russia, and no NATO expansion into Ukraine. And Russia does not gain any military bases in Ukraine beyond their existing Crimean navy bases.


7 posted on 12/11/2013 9:25:50 AM PST by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office.)
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To: cunning_fish

Damn i’m a genius. Look at the elegance of my solution. Reduction in military fears. Ukraine can stay one nation, with no need to split. And it becomes fabulously wealthy at the expense of both the EU, and the Russians, who both abused them. And the EU and Russians both get free trade out of the deal, and the gas can flow.
And nobody gets to abuse Ukraine in the deal.

Sometimes I simply amaze myself.


8 posted on 12/11/2013 9:32:35 AM PST by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office.)
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To: cunning_fish; All

Anybody know what their name was? English spelling please.
When Stalin started his land collectivization he demonized Unkrainian land owners before murdering thousands of them by calling them kulaks. Fists in the faces of the proletariat depriving them of their needed food. What was their Ukrainian name ?


9 posted on 12/11/2013 9:41:51 AM PST by mosesdapoet (Serious contribution pause.Please continue onto meaningless venting no one reads.)
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To: CaptainAmiigaf
Lets not forget the first great genocide of WWII: the Holodomor. Stalin allowed a million + people to die of starvation during the collectivization of agriculture.
10 posted on 12/11/2013 9:49:47 AM PST by quadrant (1o)
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To: Me

Stalin wasn’t Russian. He was Georgian.

The Russians were victims of communism also.

If I was Ukrainian, I guess I would want trade with both sides, while avoiding losses of sovereignty to either.


11 posted on 12/11/2013 10:39:39 AM PST by Mount Athos (A Giant luxury mega-mansion for Gore, a Government Green EcoShack made of poo for you)
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To: CaptainAmiigaf

Its not possible.

Most Ukrainians speak Russian and most of the voters live in places in Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa. This is the power base of Yanukovych’s Party Of Regions, which dominates the government coalition.

Western Ukranians who live in places like Lvov, Vinnitsa and Zhitomir - who speak native Ukrainian have no chance of forcing change through in the short-term. The Mexican standoff between the government and the opposition is likely to continue.

And no one can afford to ignore Moscow, whatever the final outcome to the EU question might be.


12 posted on 12/11/2013 10:49:08 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: edwinland

Simple truth was that communist din ton have a clue in running economy and agriculture.


13 posted on 12/11/2013 11:30:09 AM PST by kronos77 (Kosovo is Serbian Jerusalem. No Serbia without Kosovo.)
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To: CaptainAmiigaf

You are right on the money. Ukrainian nationalism has grown since partition. There are left right and centrist politicians there but all identify as Ukrainian

Yanukovich is a convicted criminal who does not really speak the language. He is risking a “Ceaucescu” moment if he does not back off


14 posted on 12/11/2013 11:38:12 AM PST by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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To: edwinland

“Can you cite a source for the “reality” of the Holdomor please?”

This is a reasonably balanced compendium of sources:

http://blogs.bu.edu/guidedhistory/russia-and-its-empires/alexander-babcock/


15 posted on 12/11/2013 11:45:36 AM PST by riverdawg
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To: DesertRhino

Of course, you are 100% correct. The jubilation over the “liberation” by the Germans lasted a very short time. Of course, I spoke (wrote) ONLY over the entrance of the Germans.
The Germans made the armies of Ghengis Khan look like a Cub Scout troop.


16 posted on 12/11/2013 1:38:44 PM PST by CaptainAmiigaf (NY TIMES: We print the news as it fits our views.)
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To: riverdawg

Thanks I will take a look.


17 posted on 12/11/2013 1:47:43 PM PST by edwinland
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To: edwinland

>>Can you cite a source for the “reality” of the Holdomor please?<<

“Holodomor” was a result of an earlier 1930s Stalin’s policy to herd people into cities. It has depleted farming communities and led to a major food shortages, combined with a climatic problems in 1932-1932.
Ukrainian nationalists who are pushing a myth that Ukraine was specifically targeted are liars.
All the rural communities of the USSR has suffered.
It also worth mentioning that is was Ukrainians who confiscated food from rural Ukrainians to feed urban Ukrainians at the time.


18 posted on 12/11/2013 6:35:14 PM PST by cunning_fish
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To: DesertRhino; CaptainAmiigaf; cunning_fish

I’ve always felt that it would be in Ukraine’s best interest to serve as basically a neutral buffer between NATO Europe and Russia, and that as such it would be able to better manipulate both to it’s benefit.


19 posted on 12/11/2013 6:55:42 PM PST by Jacob Kell
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To: Jacob Kell

>>>I’ve always felt that it would be in Ukraine’s best interest to serve as basically a neutral buffer between NATO Europe and Russia, and that as such it would be able to better manipulate both to it’s benefit.<<<

It is what they actually do since 1991.


20 posted on 12/11/2013 7:18:06 PM PST by cunning_fish
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To: Jimmy Valentine

>>>Yanukovich is a convicted criminal who does not really speak the language. He is risking a “Ceaucescu” moment if he does not back off<<<

I guess he don’t want a “Hafizulah Amin” moment too.


21 posted on 12/11/2013 7:43:07 PM PST by cunning_fish
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