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US oil boom’s end in sight, feds say
Fuel Fix ^ | December 16, 2013 | Jennifer A. Dlouhy

Posted on 12/17/2013 4:53:57 AM PST by thackney

U.S. oil production is on track to reach a near historic high by 2016, before leveling off and eventually beginning to taper in 2020, according to a new federal forecast.

The nation’s crude output will crest at 9.5 million barrels per day in 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest annual energy outlook, released Monday. The United States hit its peak oil production in 1970, with 9.6 million barrels of crude harvested daily.

Advancements in oil field technology — particularly the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking — have helped reverse years of declining oil production in the United States.

Growing U.S. oil production will have an impact on global crude oil prices. The spot price for Brent crude, the international benchmark, is set to decline to $92 per barrel (in 2012 dollars) in 2017, down from $112 per barrel a year ago, according to the EIA.

But after 2017, the agency predicts the price for Brent crude oil will start climbing, ultimately reaching $141 per barrel in 2040, as the oil industry tries to meet growing demand by developing more costly resources.

Rising gas price

Natural gas production also will rise, despite the precipitous decline in its domestic price during the early shale gas boom. The price will remain low enough to propel domestic chemical and metal manufacturing, even as companies sell more of the U.S. harvest overseas, the EIA forecasts.

The Henry Hub natural gas spot price, the U.S. benchmark, will rise to $4.80 per million British thermal units in 2018, according to the EIA outlook. That’s 77 cents higher than the agency predicted last year for 2018, and about 60 cents higher than current prices.

Ultimately, by 2040, the EIA expects natural gas to sell for $7.65 per million Btu.

The federal agency said the price hike will be driven by “faster growth of consumption in the industrial and electric power sectors and, later, growing demand for export at liquefied natural gas facilities.”

Exporting US gas

The EIA is the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy. Its predictions could help color the department’s decisions on nearly two dozen pending applications to export liquefied natural gas to countries that do not have free trade agreements with the United States. The Energy Department already has granted five LNG export licenses.

U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas are expected to climb to 9.6 billion cubic feet per day before 2030 and then remain at that level through 2040, according to the EIA.

But critics in Congress and the manufacturing sector want the Obama administration to slow down on natural gas exports and consider the new forecasts before granting any more.

Industry forecast: Exxon expects fossil fuels to reign supreme

The risk, they say, is that by boosting demand, too many foreign sales of U.S. natural gas could hike domestic prices for the fossil fuel, blunting the profit margin for manufacturers that use the substance as a chemical building block and causing higher electric bills for all consumers.

But the EIA’s new outlook, which is based on current policies only, suggests that natural gas-intensive industries still will benefit from rising U.S. production. The agency expects the domestic natural gas price to stay relatively low, compared to international prices, as U.S. production climbs to 37.6 trillion cubic feet annually by 2040 from about 29.5 trillion cubic feet last year.

Growing demand

The agency forecasts shipments of industrial goods will grow 3 percent annually for a decade before slowing to 1.6 percent in annual growth, largely driven by low natural gas prices. And shipments of bulk chemicals that benefit from a bigger supply of natural gas liquids are set to grow 3.4 percent each year from 2012 to 2025, EIA says.

More natural gas demand is set to come from power utilities, too, as electric companies slowly move to the fossil fuel as a replacement for coal. The EIA expects electricity generated from natural gas to surpass coal-based power for the first time around 2034.

In making its predictions, the EIA also now assumes that liquefied natural gas could make up 35 percent of the fuel used by freight rail locomotives by 2040 and supply some domestic marine vessels.

Other projections

In a change from last year’s prognostications, the agency now believes that renewable fuels will provide a greater share of electricity by 2040.

Total U.S. energy consumption will grow by just 12 percent between 2012 and 2040. But consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels will fall during that time span as a result of greater vehicle efficiency.

Energy use by cars and light trucks will decline sharply. Vehicle efficiency improvements will more than make up for the slight climb in overall miles traveled in these light-duty vehicles. Light duty vehicle energy consumption is set to decline 25 percent between 2012 and 2014.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: energy; oil; shale
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1 posted on 12/17/2013 4:53:57 AM PST by thackney
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To: thackney

I don’t believe anything the “feds” say about anything at any time - ever!


2 posted on 12/17/2013 4:55:58 AM PST by ilovesarah2012
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To: thackney

When I was in school in the ‘60’s the feds were predicting no-oil in 1970. In 1970 it became 1975 and it kept moving up and changing name...peal oil. We were also heading into an ice age. Then it became man-made global warming.

These predictions are all about sending money to supporters.


3 posted on 12/17/2013 5:01:43 AM PST by Gen.Blather
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To: ilovesarah2012

They are not the only one say such. But the Feds are the greatest source of data due to the reporting requirements to operate oil/gas companies in the US.


4 posted on 12/17/2013 5:02:07 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

There have been a dozen articles in the last few days talking about America “drowning in oil.” Now the Feds are saying it’s coming to an end?

SOMEONE is lying.


5 posted on 12/17/2013 5:02:19 AM PST by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: rarestia

It’s “coming to an end” — in 2040. Maybe everyone is telling the truth!


6 posted on 12/17/2013 5:04:07 AM PST by Alberta's Child ("I've never seen such a conclave of minstrels in my life.")
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To: thackney

Hydrocarbons need to be freely exportable and not locked into domestic consumption. Exporting will help sustain the boom in US hydrocarbon production and encourage further investment. That is why environmentalists, leftists, and Obaminists are opposed to it. Some on this forum too since they believe property rights end at the border.

Of course domestic consumers wish to keep it “at home”, because it is “our oil”, in an attempt to lower prices. Those attempts while successful in the short run cannot keep the US from ultimately paying the going world wide rate.

There will be no decline in the n hydrocarbon production if the market is allowed to function freely. The US and the rest of North American will swamp the world with hydrocarbons and thereby lower prices world wide. Bye bye petty oil fueled dictators and princes.

Or we can restrict exports and go back to the 70’s.


7 posted on 12/17/2013 5:06:05 AM PST by FreedomNotSafety
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To: rarestia

Read more than the headlines. In the coming few years, the growth of production will continue. But it will not continue without end.


8 posted on 12/17/2013 5:06:34 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

One thing I’ve noticed about these predictions is they don’t say “unless...”


9 posted on 12/17/2013 5:07:50 AM PST by henkster (Communists never negotiate.)
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To: thackney

True they are a great source of data, but how is this prediction any different than all those we’ve heard since we were children, honestly?


10 posted on 12/17/2013 5:08:03 AM PST by Travis T. OJustice (I miss you, dad. :()
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To: thackney

I read that part. It’s the variation of the degrees that boggles me. Several independent organizations state we’re sitting on 100 years worth of oil while the government downplays it as much less. If you think there isn’t an agenda here, I have some swampland I’d like to sell you.


11 posted on 12/17/2013 5:08:25 AM PST by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: rarestia

Those articles were in regard to Mexico’s decision to allow foreign companies back into their oil fields and the expected increase in output related to that.


12 posted on 12/17/2013 5:11:19 AM PST by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
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To: rarestia

Someone is lying, especially the lobbyists for the oil companies. Does anyone still believe that all that oil came from a bunch of Dinos? Beter yet, what were all those Dinos doing cahorting over a mile below the surface when we keep finding all their bones on the surface?

Read “This Town”.


13 posted on 12/17/2013 5:11:40 AM PST by mazda77
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To: thackney

Is this counting getting the environmentalists out of the way and going after Alaska and other areas? I bet not.


14 posted on 12/17/2013 5:12:48 AM PST by NRA1995 (I'd rather be a living "gun culture" member than a dead anti-gun candy-ass.)
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To: thackney

MSM, government reports........bull spit.......put out for political reasons only......no credibility.


15 posted on 12/17/2013 5:13:10 AM PST by kenmcg
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To: thackney

Any “peak oil” forecast by THIS administration should be met with as much skepticism as one can muster.


16 posted on 12/17/2013 5:14:35 AM PST by Constitutionalist Conservative (I'm a constitutionalist, not a libertarian. Huge difference.)
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To: rarestia

We do not have 100 year supply at the current technology and prices. Yes, there is far more petroleum available in the ground, but that does not mean it can all be produced with the same economical conditions of today.


17 posted on 12/17/2013 5:14:45 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

they are aware that Obama’s SS, the EPA, will make this happen.


18 posted on 12/17/2013 5:16:00 AM PST by hadaclueonce (Because Brawndo's got electrolytes. Because Ethanol has Big Corn Lobby)
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To: ilovesarah2012

The US oil boom will end because the government will end it.
Gas prices are high now not because of increased demand, there is actually much lower demand for gas in this recession.
Gas prices are high now not because of decreased supply - supplies are at an all time high.

Gas prices are high now because the dollar has been devalued.


19 posted on 12/17/2013 5:17:44 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: rarestia

Cheap energy = individual freedom and prosperity = a population less controlled by the elite.

They hate that idea.


20 posted on 12/17/2013 5:18:49 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: thackney

I have noticed that increased oil supply has changed nothing in the vehicle fuel prices here in the U.S. or anywhere else in the so-called free western world.

Something is wrong, it can’t all be about not having enough refineries, IMO.


21 posted on 12/17/2013 5:22:33 AM PST by PoloSec ( Believe the Gospel: how that Christ died for our sins, was buried and rose again)
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To: MrB

Gas prices are due to oil prices.

Oil prices are not controlled by the US market alone.


22 posted on 12/17/2013 5:23:06 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

Time to buy that 1974-78 (whatever year it was) Pinto Pony MPG.

Raise your hand if you remember that car.


23 posted on 12/17/2013 5:25:50 AM PST by F15Eagle (1Jn4:15;5:4-5,11-13;Mt27:50-54;Mk15:33-34;Jn3:17-18,6:69,11:25,14:6,20:31;Ro10:8-11;1Tm2:5-6;Ti3:4-7)
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To: thackney

There are reports in the Congressional Record dating back to the 1870’s claiming that US oil production will peak and begin to decline within 10 years. There is also a report saying there is no oil in Texas.


24 posted on 12/17/2013 5:31:11 AM PST by SeeSharp
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To: Constitutionalist Conservative
Name a federal agency that has NOT been politicized by the current WH occupant.
25 posted on 12/17/2013 5:33:00 AM PST by Eric in the Ozarks ("Say Not the Struggle Naught Availeth.")
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To: F15Eagle
1974-78 (whatever year it was) Pinto Pony MPG.

Didn't they have a slight overheating problem from the fuel tank?

26 posted on 12/17/2013 5:36:25 AM PST by showme_the_Glory (ILLEGAL: prohibited by law. ALIEN: Owing political allegiance to another country or government)
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To: SeeSharp
There is also a report saying there is no oil in Texas. Just how old is that report?
27 posted on 12/17/2013 5:37:42 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: Gen.Blather

Did you notice the “Green Energy” spin?

The word “harvest” is used to describe the production of crude and natural gas.

You cannot plant grow and “harvest” crude or natural gas for fuel, you drill and produce it.

Non renewable = peak oil

You plant grow and “harvest” crops for fuel.

Renewable = green energy


28 posted on 12/17/2013 5:41:18 AM PST by IMR 4350
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To: thackney

No doubt, this is just as accurate as their predictions of current production were 5 years ago.


29 posted on 12/17/2013 5:41:46 AM PST by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: showme_the_Glory

I never personally heard of one, other than the famous case where a van rammed a stalled Pinto at something like 50 mph. However, it has been reported that Ford did an analysis of the fuel tanks in a pickup truck design that was a problem. They calculated the cost of retrofitting all the trucks and decide that the average victim would settle for about $10,000. Based on costs, they decided not to retrofit the trucks and take the legal losses. This was from a case in the late 1970’s or early 1980’s. I generally preferred Fords back but it was Mustangs, mostly, that I had (a couple).


30 posted on 12/17/2013 5:41:57 AM PST by F15Eagle (1Jn4:15;5:4-5,11-13;Mt27:50-54;Mk15:33-34;Jn3:17-18,6:69,11:25,14:6,20:31;Ro10:8-11;1Tm2:5-6;Ti3:4-7)
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To: showme_the_Glory
"Didn't they have a slight overheating problem from the fuel tank? "

Not so much for those model years.

By then rear axle shields were incorporated in production along with longer fuel fill pipes that would not disconnect from the tank in a rear ender. Excursions have a ~40 gal tank in the same location with few reported problems.

31 posted on 12/17/2013 5:50:56 AM PST by Paladin2
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To: thackney
US oil boom’s end in sight, feds say

But not, I dare say, for lack of resources.
Rather, too much Marxism at the EPA, too many environmental whackjobs in the federal bureaucracy, and too many crooks in congress.

32 posted on 12/17/2013 5:51:28 AM PST by Amagi (Lenin: "Socialized Medicine is the Keystone to the Arch of the Socialist State.")
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To: thackney

I posted another story on this last night.

This one spins the eia report differently.

They suggest that oil production increases will come to a screaming stop in 2017 but prices will continue to increase.

That scenario doesn’t seem likely.

If production increases come to a screaming stop — it will be because prices drop precipitously. that’s not in the cards.

world wide demand is just too high and growing.

what’s more likely is that production increases will slow down. How much is unknown right now.

imho production increases in 2014 and 2015 will be closer to 1 million barrels @ day. the eia usually underestimates everything. so their 800,000 Barrel @ day oil increase number for 2014-5 should be considered a low end estimate.

but I think we’ve been through this discussion before. this time however the eia provides some official numbers.


33 posted on 12/17/2013 6:29:54 AM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer
They suggest that oil production increases will come to a screaming stop in 2017

I don't see your type of description in the report.

world wide demand is just too high and growing.

But that is only part of the picture. Increased supply from other nations is going to effect the economical ability for companies to continued the capital investment into the US production market needed to maintain growth.

what’s more likely is that production increases will slow down. How much is unknown right now.

That is more inline with what I read.

34 posted on 12/17/2013 6:34:20 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: ckilmer
U.S. oil production is on track to reach a near historic high by 2016, before leveling off and eventually beginning to taper in 2020, according to a new federal forecast.

I don't know how you read that as a screaming stop.

35 posted on 12/17/2013 6:35:16 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

U.S. oil production is on track to reach a near historic high by 2016, before leveling off and eventually beginning to taper in 2020, according to a new federal forecast.

I don’t know how you read that as a screaming stop.
.............
read the next paragraph:

The nation’s crude output will crest at 9.5 million barrels per day in 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest annual energy outlook, released Monday.


36 posted on 12/17/2013 6:37:46 AM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer

How does the word “crest” and “reach near historic high by 2016 before leveling off” mean different slow down rates to you?


37 posted on 12/17/2013 6:39:35 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

But that is only part of the picture. Increased supply from other nations is going to effect the economical ability for companies to continued the capital investment into the US production market needed to maintain growth.
///////////
agree. but I think the complexity of the technology will not allow competitors of the USA to bring volume to the market via fracking within the next five years. after that. yeah sure.


38 posted on 12/17/2013 6:39:44 AM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer
complexity of the technology will not allow competitors of the USA to bring volume to the market via fracking within the next five years.

Much of the Hydraulic Fracturing work is actually done by International Firms like Halliburton. The small independents that have driven this growth are typically not doing the fracturing themselves.

39 posted on 12/17/2013 6:42:36 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

How does the word “crest” and “reach near historic high by 2016 before leveling off” mean different slow down rates to you?
............
The “crest” of the hill or the “crest” of a wave in both cases means the top of the hill or the top of a wave. that said, of course you’re free to interpret that as meaning production rate increases will slow down rather than stop.

myself, I actually think production increases will remain high for another 2-3 years.


40 posted on 12/17/2013 6:44:42 AM PST by ckilmer
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To: thackney

Much of the Hydraulic Fracturing work is actually done by International Firms like Halliburton. The small independents that have driven this growth are typically not doing the fracturing themselves.
............
No this is dead ass wrong. I’m shocked that you would say this. The internationals have been late to the party. They have only managed to get in by buying their way in. Fracking has been driven entirely by second tier American drillers.

Now I have to test you. What do you know about continental resources.


41 posted on 12/17/2013 6:49:47 AM PST by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer

Halliburton has been doing hydraulic fracturing since the 1940s.

Tell what company you think does more hydraulic fracturing jobs per year.


42 posted on 12/17/2013 6:54:02 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: F15Eagle

We had one :(

I remember it constantly smelled like the belts were melting. And, for some reason, the hubcaps would fly off at the slightest bump. My brother and I took turns chasing after the hubcaps. The armrest fell off, the window crank handle broke, the heater occasionally worked.

In today’s minivan and SUV world, its hard to comprehend that our family of five would take thousand mile trips in that car.


43 posted on 12/17/2013 6:58:17 AM PST by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: ckilmer

I believe you are confusing oil production companies with well service companies.

Hydraulic Fracutring is typically done by a well service company hired to treat a well owned by the oil production company.


44 posted on 12/17/2013 6:58:17 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

Halliburton has been doing hydraulic fracturing since the 1940s.

Tell what company you think does more hydraulic fracturing jobs per year.
...........
what country are you from?


45 posted on 12/17/2013 6:58:49 AM PST by ckilmer
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To: thackney

Brought to you by the federal government - the institution that hasn’t been right about anything in recorded history!


46 posted on 12/17/2013 7:00:15 AM PST by Repulican Donkey
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To: lacrew

I went to pass someone in my sister’s Gremlin, 1978 I think it was — it was that awful light purple color — it was like 45, 47, 49, 51........took FOREVER to get around the car. Thank God it was a long stretch of highway where I could see no oncoming cars. Sheesh.


47 posted on 12/17/2013 7:01:23 AM PST by F15Eagle (1Jn4:15;5:4-5,11-13;Mt27:50-54;Mk15:33-34;Jn3:17-18,6:69,11:25,14:6,20:31;Ro10:8-11;1Tm2:5-6;Ti3:4-7)
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To: ckilmer

We all know that production is a function of price. Oil recovery is a function of return on investment. As the price rises, alternatives become more viable. For example, if the major railroads switch over to using natural gas to power their electric locomotives, then the demand for diesel fuel goes down fairly significantly. They are the biggest user of diesel fuel in North America other than the US Navy. This is something the BNSF is exploring right now. If they switch, so will the UP, NS , CSXT, CN and CPRS.

Also, over the next few years we are going to see more trucking companies and local delivery companies switch over to natural gas. FedEx and UPS are already switching over. Bus companies are switching over. The postal service SHOULD switch over. It all comes down to one thing: MONEY. Is this going to increase our profit margin.


48 posted on 12/17/2013 7:02:10 AM PST by woodbutcher1963
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To: thackney
But it will not continue without end.

No offense, but that statement is trivial.
49 posted on 12/17/2013 7:02:10 AM PST by 867V309 (Obama- he's just crazy enough to do it.)
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To: ckilmer

I was born in the US and most of my work has been in the US. But I have done some international oil production work, none lately.


50 posted on 12/17/2013 7:03:22 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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