No Republican has ever held this seat, it has been in Democrat hands since senator's have been popularly elected.
Montana is a state that is heavily dependent on Federal dollars for schools, hospitals, highways, agricultural subsidies, plus the 40% of the folks who depend on Social Security, Military and Federal Retirement benefits.
The voters in Montana are going to vote for a Senator who keeps the Federal Dollars coming into the state...
True, but LA had never popularly elected a Republican to either of its seats in the Senate, and when Breaux retited in 2004 Vitter won quite comfortably.
My point is that, while we can’t take anything for granted in MT, it’s not as if it’s freaking Hawaii or Maryland. It gave Romney a big victory margin in 2012, and has a long history of electing Republicans in statewide federal elections over the past 25 years (except for Baucus, and Tester in 2006 and 2012).
Which is why Daines is not a bad candidate. He hasn’t exactly made a name for himself as a fiscal conservative who will pinch pennies, but isn’t a Don Young either.
Montana consistently votes Republican for its at-large House seat since Pat Williams back in the 90s, and it went for Romney by over 10% points. This was when Obama was at his popularity height as well. Since then he has crashed, and attacking Walsh as a rubber stamp for Obama’s agenda along with the brutal primary fight that’s shaping up between the Lt. Governor and the more radical John Bohlinger, and I predict we’ll take the seat.
Look at West Virginia. Democrat senators as far as the eye can see. But upon the retirement of Rockefeller, they’re barely even competing for the seat there.
Montana likes pork-barrel spending, but so does Mississippi, and they elect Republicans. Democrats have had the edge in Montana because of union strength and better organization, but I think Daines will wrap it up quickly in an election cycle that looks toxic for dimocrats nationwide.
Baucus was not as liberal until Obama got elected.
Tester and the former Governor(the fat guy)support amnesty for illegals so that is another issue that will help Daines.
Montanans voted 79.5 percent in favor of LR 121, which denied state services to illegal aliens.
Also Romney probably did worse as a rich guy than other presidential candidates may have done.
I think if Daines is 60 or 70% on Club for Growth Ratings that might be to be expected of an electable conservative in Montana with all the freebies you have to concede.