Posted on 12/20/2013 1:52:57 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
If a liberal were stuck on a life raft with Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz (as a proxy for the Tea Party), who would she try to shove off first?* Trick question: the answer is neither, because conventional wisdom among the media and the Left (but I repeat . . .) is that Palin and the Tea Party are both damaging to the Republican Party.
Well guess what mom? Two new academic studies, using the standard regression modeling techniques that are considered the most “mainstream” methodology of political science today, turn the conventional wisdom on its head.
Writing in Political Research Quarterly, Edward M. Burmilla and Josh M. Ryan of Bradley University conclude that “We find that using marginal effects, as is appropriate for cross-sectional data, shows that Palin had a positive effect on McCain vote choice, and based on our model specification, may have had a positive, conditional relationship for independent voters.” Here’s the complete abstract:
The ‘Palin Effect’ in the U.S. 2008 Presidential Election” analyzes the effect of Sarah Palin on presidential vote choice. Two of the substantive conclusions are (1) Palin cost McCain votes among independents and moderates, and (2) Palin had the largest effect on vote choice of any recent vice-presidential nominee. Our analysis shows that the data do not support these findings. We find that respondent evaluations of Palin have a positive effect on McCain vote choice, even among independents and moderates, and Palin’s effect on the election outcome is comparable with ten of the last fifteen vice-presidential nominees.
Meanwhile, The Economist this week reports on a study that concludes the much-reviled Tea Party had a significant positive impact on behalf of the GOP in the 2010 election (what would we do without social scientists?) As The Economist describes it:
[N]ew research suggests that the people whom left-wing pundits once dismissed as “teabaggers” made a big difference in the mid-term elections of 2010, when Republicans recaptured the House of Representatives.
The abstract makes clear an interesting point; the Tea Party didn’t just reveal opinion, but galvanized and changed opinion:
Our estimates suggest significant multiplier effects: an additional protester increased the number of Republican votes by a factor well above one. Together our results show that protests can build political movements that ultimately affect policymaking, and that they do so by influencing political views rather than solely through the revelation of existing political preferences.
So here’s an idea: Sarah Palin should start selling a line of tea–maybe a “Special 2016 Blend,” and watch liberal/media heads explode. (I’m sure she’s being audited by the IRS already.)
* Yeah, yeah, I know: if the liberal on the life raft was Pajama Boy, no one would get shoved off the life raft. Pajama Boy would be fed to the sharks before he got his first whine out.
Who cares about the Whigs?
The Economist this week reports on a study that concludes the much-reviled Tea Party...
Well, how about that.
If she had been the candidate, I think she'd have beaten PajamaBoy.
I voted for Sarah Palin in 2008. I can’t remember anyone else I voted for during that election.
Palin helped McCain
well, duh
I voted for Sarah Palin in 2008. I can’t remember anyone else I voted for during that election.
There were probably some state and local candidates.
All one had to do was attend a rally or two (as I did) with McCain/Palin and see the difference in crowd response between McLame being introduced and Sarah being introduced. When McLame was introduced, there was enthusiastic applause and cheering to be sure, since he was after all the candidate. But when Sarah took the stage the response wasn’t just enthusiastic, it was deafening. I didn’t need some egg-headed study to tell me she helped him!
I have no use for any parts of the Republican party Sarah might be alledgedly damaging.
This dolt in Portland thinks she was the top of the ticket:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3102745/posts
Second place means nothing. Even losing by one vote is still losing!
I love brainiac's but do ya get the impression their ain't a lot of common sense with these folks?
I mean if a NASCAR engine blows and parts are coming through the block they would call it a catastrophic failure.
You and I know they blew a rod....
BTW to these braniac's, she didn't push him almost over the line, she dang near dragged his sorry progressive keester across..
I’m guessing Steve Schmidt and Nicole Wallace experienced the same thing you did, over and over again. No wonder they and the other Romneyites went ape-$#*+!!
Sarah scared the hell out of the communist Democrats in 2008 and they still haven’t gotten over it. That is why the ‘RATS still hate her so much five years later. The close call in 2008 is the reason they shifted into voter fraud overkill in 2012. They weren’t taking any chances this time.
McCain was a shrewd campaign master in his choice of Sarah. He knew deep inside he wanted pajama-boy to be the next potus, but he didn’t want to be trounced. So, he picked Sarah to make it close. He adjusted his actions after that to ensure a close loss.
Correct, that's why it is vital that we not allow RINO candidates to share the ticket with Conservatives, because the RINO on the ticket will drag the good candidate down.
Well, I wouldn’t have voted for McCain, but for Palin.
I didn’t bother to voted for Romney. Just voted for the Constitution Party or whoever it was.
The point is, Palin was not, as the media said, "dragging the ticket down." She nearly was enough to keep the dead-weight McLame from sinking. I think should would have been, had Obama not been "the magic Negro" (in the words of the LA Times).
Many people, including conservatives, still forget that six weeks before the election McCain-Palin were leading in many polls. Then the financial collapse occurred. One week later M-P were behind by five points never to regain their lost ground. Would they have won if not for the collapse? We’ll never know, but I think they’d come a lot closer.
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