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Five things Obama must do to avoid lame-duck status ["It's not personal"]
The Hill ^ | December 31, 2013 | Amie Parnes

Posted on 12/31/2013 4:20:20 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

President Obama endured a terrible 2013, raising GOP hopes of a Senate takeover in next year’s midterm elections that would turn him into an early lame duck.

The GOP needs to win six seats in the upper chamber to take a 51-49 edge, something clearly obtainable with Democrats defending difficult seats in South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana and North Carolina.

With the Senate and House in GOP hands, Obama would have little if any hope of moving his legislative agenda, and would be left to play defense against a GOP Congress in his final two years in office.

The White House has signaled the importance of keeping the Senate blue in a number of ways, most notably by hiring former aides close to Senate Democratic leaders and ramping up its communications.

In 20114, White House allies say Obama must focus on five things to keep both chambers from turning red:

Minimize the liabilities

Unless Obama and the White House can get the president’s signature healthcare law humming smoothly, it will pull the president’s and the Democratic Party’s approval ratings underwater in 2014.

“The biggest weight on the class of ‘14 is the success of Obamacare,” said one former senior administration official. “I’m sure there are Democrats up for reelection who are lighting candles into the New Year with the hope that it all goes well in 2014 or it’ll be like 2013 never left.”

White House confidence is bolstered by the surge of people who have enrolled in the law in recent days. More than 1.1 million people have now enrolled, and while that is lower than what the administration had hoped for, it makes reaching the 7 million enrollees projected by the Congressional Budget Office more realistic.

The hope is that the New Year will amount to a fresh start for Democrats, and that Obama will be able to tout the number of people newly insured under the law.

Yet problems will be hard to avoid. Starting on Jan. 1, people will begin going to hospitals and clinics to use ObamaCare. Every time someone’s insurance doesn’t cover the charges they’d expected, it will likely get written up.

How many problems pop up, and how well the administration does in explaining and responding to them, will go a long way toward shaping public perceptions of the law.

“You have a public that still doesn’t understand how Obamacare makes life better and a media obsessed with the glitches surrounding it,” the former senior official added. “The White House needs to put a full stop to that.”

Keep the base engaged

Midterm elections even more than presidential elections can be decided on voter turnout, and Democrats face a much tougher task with Obama off the ballot.

A CNN poll released late last week highlights the White House’s dilemma.

It found that 55 percent of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who opposes Obama than one who supports him.

This means the White House must pull all the levers they used in the 2008 and 2012 campaigns to get its base excited enough to support Obama’s party in 2014.

Democratic strategists say the White House needs to rally women, Hispanics, African Americans and young voters to the polls.

“In a midterm election, you need everybody to go out to the polls the way they do in a general election,” the former senior official said. “He needs the liberal base to turn out in droves just as Republicans have been good about getting their extremist base out for these elections.

Obama can also cater to the base’s needs by keeping his campaign arm ‘Organizing for Action’ engaged in these issues, Democrats say.

In recent months, the Democratic National Committee decided to lease some information on voters to OFA along with other Democratic Party committees to ensure that this process gets underway.

Hold the line against the GOP

When Obama has used the bully pulpit to take a hard line with Republicans, he’s seen a bump in his approval ratings.

A good example was during the government shutdown, when the White House refused to negotiate with the GOP over concessions on a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government.

“Democrats won in a huge way when Obama didn’t back down on the CR,” the former senior official said.

Allies say Obama also benefitted because the shutdown divided the GOP. They say the White House needs to identify more policies that drive a wedge between mainstream and Tea Party Republicans.

“Every time [Senator] Ted Cruz threatens to default, [Senator] Mark Pryor’s staff breathes a little easier,” the former official added. Pryor (D-Ark.) is a top GOP target in 2014.

Picking the right fights also telegraphs a message of strength from the White House.

“People respect strength and every time the president exhibits it, he does well,” Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons said.

Take a page out of the Clinton playbook

Yes, Bill Clinton’s approval ratings at this time in his presidency were much higher than Obama’s.

(Clinton had an approval rating hovering around 57 percent at the end of the first year in his second term while Obama has a 39 percent approval rating—with a 54 percent disapproval rating, according to the latest Gallup poll.)

But the former president’s approval ratings climbed over the course of his second term—even as he was dogged by the Monica Lewinsky scandal – because he was able to tout the growing economy and surrounded himself with the right advisers in the West Wing.

Last month, Obama hired John Podesta—a key force behind Clinton’s surge in the second term. The move was welcome news to top Democrats, many of who urged the White House to consider a staff shake-up.

Obama should take additional cues from the so-called ‘Explainer in Chief’, Democrats say.

“They need to capture an aspirational economic message and talk up the economy,” Simmons said, adding that it’s something Clinton did well.

He also said the White House needs to decide upon a message and be consistent about delivering it.

“The White House is good at a lot of things but message consistency is not one of them,” Simmons said, adding that White House should “bring back the perpetual campaign.”

Go undercover

Sometimes the best thing Obama can do to help his party is to get out of the spotlight.

Candidates running in tough Senate races, for example, will need Obama’s support and his money. But the don’t always need him standing on stage with them.

Natalie Tennant, a Democrat from West Virginia taking on GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito for an open Senate seat, is proof of that.

Tennant attended a New York fundraiser where first lady Michelle Obama urged donors to write big-dollar checks for candidates like her. Afterwards — trying to prevent criticism from voters who don’t support Obama — she said the fundraising didn’t amount to an endorsement from Obama’s wife.

The White House may experience more of this as Election Day approaches, just as Republicans were quick to distance themselves from George W. Bush near the end of his second term.

“Every president is going to have folks who are less enthusiastic about having them stand beside them,” the former senior administration official said.

“It’s not personal, just business,” Simmons added.


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections; US: Alaska; US: Arkansas; US: Louisiana; US: Montana; US: North Carolina; US: South Dakota; US: Texas; US: West Virginia
KEYWORDS: 3rdpartytrojanhorse; alaska; arkansas; campaign; changestaff; jamalsimmons; johnpodesta; louisiana; markpryor; montana; natalietennant; northcarolina; rossperot; shelleymoorecapito; shutup; southdakota; stayfocused; tedcruz; texas; westvirginia
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
“They need to capture an aspirational economic message and talk up the economy,” Simmons said, adding that it’s something Clinton did well.

If you like your economy, you can keep it.

41 posted on 12/31/2013 6:56:55 AM PST by VRW Conspirator ( 2+2 = V)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Just keep a well publicized list of all those that die after having their insurance canceled or can't get access to the treatments they need.

By November 2014 this list will be long as the Vietnam memorial.


42 posted on 12/31/2013 7:42:57 AM PST by spokeshave (OMG.......Schadenfreude overload is not covered under Obamacare :-()
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To: Aevery_Freeman
Democratic strategists say the White House needs to rally women, Hispanics, African Americans and young voters to the polls.

Why don't they just say, "Use stun guns and tranc darts on old white men."

Ha....here is what they going to do....

Looks like some of Holders people are happy navigators (HPN).....

HPN....OK whitey....lets check your voter registrations ....

HPN....Looks like you need to make a couple of adjustments here....

OK now I see it......your colonoscopy is scheduled for next month.....and the insulin will be mailed as before...

HPN Thinks...."this desk job sure beats stealing cell phones and a once a year gig patrolling voting booths with my billy club."

(He also got the message about hiding the screen image of his laptop)

43 posted on 12/31/2013 7:47:16 AM PST by spokeshave (OMG.......Schadenfreude overload is not covered under Obamacare :-()
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To: spokeshave
...and what's that on the table just at the corner of the lap top,,....

Is that a knuckle duster....or a thumb screw....?

44 posted on 12/31/2013 7:50:16 AM PST by spokeshave (OMG.......Schadenfreude overload is not covered under Obamacare :-()
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

They hear not for it’s for the greater good socialism no matter how useless his word is the media has supported socialism for the last hundred years.


45 posted on 12/31/2013 7:59:05 AM PST by Vaduz
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To: Liz
I find this article laughable. The DNC may have a problem in the mid-terms, but only if their well oiled and highly evolved voter fraud machine goes haywire. Obama could care less. He's been on cruise control from the moment he and Moochie did the fist bump back in Nov '07. Obama has done his duty for the leftist cause. He, via his legion of installed Alinskyite leftists, has cavitated America- economically, militarily, politically, legally, morally, culturally, and socially. ALL without so much as lifting his own finger or getting his hands dirty in the process.

Obama could publicly rape a young boy on the carpet in the Oval Office and successfully blame it on the republicans in congress for imposing pedophelia on his administration. We are stuck with this islamo -Marxist one lung oxygen thief until Jan '17, provided that he actually complies with the constitutional term limits- at his point a highly questionable assumption.

46 posted on 12/31/2013 8:05:12 AM PST by TADSLOS (The Event Horizon has come and gone. Buckle up and hang on.)
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To: TADSLOS
True enough---so hard for conservatives to believe Bwabwa walters admitting sap-happy libs saw him as their "Messiah." They let him get away w/ murder. He milked the melanin like nobody's business.

The voter fraud meat grinder has to be considered---its alive and well---as Virginia showed us. And I do wake up screaming---thinking he won't ever leave office.

But presidents do make mistakes---Lyndon Johnson (how did he finagle his way into office?) was forced to quit after one term---Nixon was forced out to avoid impeachment.

When mega-obamacare hits in mid-2014----we shall see what we shall see.

47 posted on 12/31/2013 8:28:39 AM PST by Liz
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To: Liz

I have more confidence in the second coming of Christ occurring before witnessing the UNIPARTY of republicrats finally getting around to burning the magic negro at the stake of impeachment for his lengthy rap sheet of high crimes and misdemeanors.


48 posted on 12/31/2013 8:35:10 AM PST by TADSLOS (The Event Horizon has come and gone. Buckle up and hang on.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
No boubtaboutit.

The RINOs will hand The Mombasa MF victory on a silver platter.

Issues:
(1)Extension of Unemployment benefits
(2) Government Shutdown
(3) Minimum Wage
(4)Immigration
(5)Pretend to work with him to make Obamacare "work."

The "website" issue is a red herring. It's a minor symptom, not the fatal disease.

49 posted on 12/31/2013 9:08:07 AM PST by Kenny Bunk (OK, Obama be bad. Now where's OUR Program, Plan, and Leader?)
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