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No, the 'College Bubble' Isn't Popping
The Atlantic ^ | 01/10/2014 | JORDAN WEISSMANN

Posted on 01/10/2014 4:57:23 AM PST by SeekAndFind

When newspaper editors are in the mood to run a good old-fashioned screed about the collapsing value of college, they inevitably turn to Richard Vedder, an Ohio University economist who runs the Center for College Affordability and Productivity. Vedder likes to argue that the financial return on a B.A. is falling, graduates are chronically underemployed, and that our profligate universities are in for a reckoning once everyone wises up and stops throwing their money away. (For what it's worth, I tend to disagree).

Today Vedder and one of his students, Christopher Denhart, have upped the ante a bit for The Wall Street Journal, where they've published an op-ed titled, "How the College Bubble Will Pop." The reckoning, they say, is already upon us, as total college enrollment has fallen 1.5 percent since 2012.

"What's causing the decline?" they ask. "While changing demographics—specifically, a birth dearth in the mid-1990s—accounts for some of the shift, robust foreign enrollment offsets that lack. The answer is simple: The benefits of a degree are declining while costs rise."

It's an alluring theory. But their evidence falls apart under even the lightest inspection.

(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bubble; college; tuition

1 posted on 01/10/2014 4:57:23 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

When something is failing, you only do it harder because it did work at one point.

The bubble will continue as long as there are taxpayers inflating it.


2 posted on 01/10/2014 5:07:52 AM PST by Gen.Blather
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To: SeekAndFind

Real education is never without value, how much you can afford to spend for it is another question entirely.


3 posted on 01/10/2014 5:10:56 AM PST by Graybeard58 (_.. ._. .. _. _._ __ ___ ._. . ___ ..._ ._ ._.. _ .. _. .)
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To: Gen.Blather

The big money question is this -— IF THERE’s BUBBLE, WHEN WILL IT POP?


4 posted on 01/10/2014 5:11:21 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: Gen.Blather

And as long as parents keep sending their kids into these rip off institutions.

Just say no


5 posted on 01/10/2014 5:12:13 AM PST by stanne
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To: SeekAndFind

“IF THERE’s BUBBLE, WHEN WILL IT POP?”

Here’s how I know there’s a bubble. Graduates are so bad that many companies require simple reading, math and comprehension testing for all new employees including college graduates. I asked my head hunter why and he said that most if not all of the college graduates that the employer I’d been presented to failed the test. (It was roughly 8th grade level.)

Companies used to just go with a college degree, but now they also require independent certification in quality control, program management, procurement, etc. Why? Because those certifications verify that you can pass tests that are not graded based on race, or other irrelevant criteria, unlike colleges.


6 posted on 01/10/2014 5:15:26 AM PST by Gen.Blather
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To: stanne

“And as long as parents keep sending their kids into these rip off institutions.”

I tell kids to read a book titled, “The millionaire next door.” Almost none of them have college educations because a college education teaches you to work for somebody else as an employee.


7 posted on 01/10/2014 5:18:04 AM PST by Gen.Blather
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To: Gen.Blather

I tell people to talk to new or close to graduation college graduates.

Working for any employer is a dream


8 posted on 01/10/2014 5:20:53 AM PST by stanne
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To: SeekAndFind
...they inevitably turn to Richard Vedder, an Ohio University economist...Isn't he from Ft. Lee, New Jersey?
9 posted on 01/10/2014 5:22:14 AM PST by gr8eman (How ya doin Bob?...Bitchen!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’ll bet it is just about ready to pop. Kids and parents are getting on to the fact that it just isn’t worth it.


10 posted on 01/10/2014 5:22:38 AM PST by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: Gen.Blather

Book was ok. Too many doctors who had to dress up and drive to show off their status.

The author or can say it because it won’t cost him anything to be wrong.


11 posted on 01/10/2014 5:26:35 AM PST by DIRTYSECRET (urope. Why do they put up with this.)
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To: stanne

“Working for any employer is a dream”

The thing to do is contact your chosen profession’s professional society. There’s one for every profession, including prostitution. (It’s called the Democratic party.) Ask them what percentage of their members are unemployed.


12 posted on 01/10/2014 5:28:23 AM PST by Gen.Blather
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To: SeekAndFind

I respectfully disagree.

I hold an adjunct appointment at one of our community colleges. The position is in place to essentially handle excess demand for a required course and to allow the college to not have to hire an FTE.

When I started four years ago, I could count on teaching three full classes each session. Beginning last year I was down to two classes per session, and I’ll be lucky if both of my Spring classes make.


13 posted on 01/10/2014 5:33:11 AM PST by Arm_Bears (Refuse; Resist; Rebel; Revolt!)
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To: SeekAndFind

It was interesting to scan some of the comments from “The Atlantic” readers. The ones I read were written by literate people, unlike reader comments one sees on the Breitbart articles, many of them written by people who couldn’t write a sentence—much less a paragraph—without misspelled words and other examples of improper grammar.


14 posted on 01/10/2014 5:40:01 AM PST by OldPossum ("It's" is the contraction of "it" and "is"; think about ITS implications.)
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To: OldPossum

And the scariest thought is this -— Many of them are college students or even college grads !!


15 posted on 01/10/2014 5:45:05 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: jmaroneps37
I’ll bet it is just about ready to pop. Kids and parents are getting on to the fact that it just isn’t worth it.

It absolutely is ready to pop. My grandkids go to several different types of high schools - fancy private, diocesan, public - so I get to see my grandkids mix with kids from all different levels of income. Here's the surprising thing - the upper middle class/ rich kids' parents aren't playing anymore. Those kids are following the money to colleges they can afford to pay in full with no loans. These are families probably making between 250k - 650k each year. Many of them are spending 20 grand each year on high school. But then they go and send their kids to schools like Penn State, Pitt, or St. Joe's (where the kid has a huge merit scholarship).

I was at a grandson's basketball game (fancy private schools) and was talking with a father in the stands about college tuition. This man starts talking about ROI for college. His kid actually got into Cornell and UPenn but he had decided on taking a full ride at St. Joe's. The father said when he sat down and figured it out, it costs colleges somewhere around 30 grand (give or take) to feed, house, educate, and still make a fair little profit off a kid. So that's what the Dad told his son was the limit he'd pay each year. The kid could've gone to Pitt or Penn State, but preferred the atmosphere at St. Joe's. The dad laughed that now some poor other suckers were paying for his kid.

Here are my other observations: Smart but lower middle class kids don't pay anything so the sky's the limit for them. The average lower middle class student is beginning to realize that a college degree is not a ticket to financial security and so are avoiding high debt like the plague. The more middle class kids are the only ones still taking out massive loans to cover 60k tuition bills and I figure it's not going to be long until they see the light. A few too many deeply indebted cousins working at the Gap is going to be the needle for this bubble. Unless the stupid government interferes, which it probably will.

16 posted on 01/10/2014 5:45:39 AM PST by old and tired
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To: SeekAndFind

As a parent of a first year college student, while not happy about the cost, I don’t see another option. The kid was top 5 in HS but HS hardly makes one ready to tackle what lies ahead. I never had college aspiration when in HS but thanks to Jimmy Carter killing the construction trades in the early 80’s college started looking better. I got the degree and quite glad I did.

The kid is in the same boat now, Obama policies have decimated near every corner of the economy. I suppose I could have gave him the tuition money and sent him to the casino but I didn’t. The country gets on a much better path by the time he graduates or it really won’t matter; everyone’s goose will be cooked.

BTW the full ride is on me, but to me it’s only money.


17 posted on 01/10/2014 5:46:11 AM PST by WinMod70
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To: Gen.Blather
simple reading, math and comprehension testing

Mrs WBill teaches part-time for a local college. This has been a long-standing complaint of hers - the students don't need to be there, they need several more years of HS to be brought up to speed.

My comment was, "If they can't cut the mustard, then fail them." (I'm a harda$$ that way). Her reply? "I'd need to fail most of them, and I can't do that." So, she figures out other things to grade them on, like class participation.

The college is instituting some sort of remedial math and writing program in conjunction with testing. Hopefully that will weed out some of the real rejects.

AND....as an aside - she found out yesterday that her classes are almost double the size of what they usually are. That's a very, very bad indicator for the local economy (we're in the Southeast), if not the larger economy. Every time in the past when her class size has gone up like that, the bottom falls out. Worth mentioning.

18 posted on 01/10/2014 5:54:01 AM PST by wbill
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To: gr8eman
It's always something...


19 posted on 01/10/2014 6:01:59 AM PST by Alas Babylon!
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To: SeekAndFind

This article in no way does what it sets out to do—refute the existence of a college bubble.

All it attempts to say is that because enrollment in non-profit institutions is increasing, slightly, there is no crisis in higher education. Really?

It does nothing to address the fact that millions of students are saddled with billions of dollars in debt that some of them will never be able to repay. It also says nothing about the skyrocketing cost of “Big Education,” and the poor return on investment many college degrees have become. $200K+ for a degree in Gender Studies and a career waiting tables is no bargain.


20 posted on 01/10/2014 6:07:22 AM PST by rightwingintelligentsia (Democrats: The perfect party for the helpless and stupid, and those who would rule over them.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The 5 stages of grief:

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance.

They seem to have just gotten to Denial


21 posted on 01/10/2014 6:08:35 AM PST by glorgau
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To: Alas Babylon!

Maybe he was stuck on the GWB...classic!


22 posted on 01/10/2014 6:18:21 AM PST by gr8eman (How ya doin Bob?...Bitchen!)
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To: OldPossum
The ones I read were written by literate people, unlike reader comments one sees on the Breitbart articles, many of them written by people who couldn’t write a sentence—much less a paragraph—without misspelled words and other examples of improper grammar.

I no. It's tough to except all the terrble mistakes people make on the internet. I'm something of a gramar cop myself and makes me sad.

23 posted on 01/10/2014 7:39:47 AM PST by pepsi_junkie (Who is John Galt?)
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To: SeekAndFind

To compensate for the decline in college attendance the states are stepping up their instate tuition discounts to illegal aliens.


24 posted on 01/10/2014 8:38:52 AM PST by Uncle Chip
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To: SeekAndFind

Like the real estate bubble didn’t exist, and wasn’t going to pop.


25 posted on 01/10/2014 8:40:23 AM PST by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.)
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To: pepsi_junkie

Then, you understand that poor communication skills get in the way of the message.

My point, and I do have one, is that one’s message is diminished by poor writing. For one thing, the reader may have a difficult time understanding what the writer is trying to convey. Also, the reader may think the writer is somewhat stupid and/or ill-educated and is therefore unimpressed by his or her thoughts.


26 posted on 01/10/2014 9:42:16 AM PST by OldPossum ("It's" is the contraction of "it" and "is"; think about ITS implications.)
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To: pepsi_junkie

” I’m something of a GRAMAR cop myself and makes me sad.


I’m a spelling cop.:-)

.


27 posted on 01/10/2014 9:53:29 AM PST by Mears
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To: Mears

yuo caught me. I wont make any more speling or gramar mistakes ever again, I promis.


28 posted on 01/10/2014 7:02:27 PM PST by pepsi_junkie (Who is John Galt?)
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