Skip to comments.Conservative poll has Michigan Republican Senate candidate up 8 points
Posted on 01/13/2014 5:34:41 PM PST by amnestynone
A Conservative Intelligence/Harper poll shows Michigan Republican Senate candidate Terri Lynn Land leading Democrat Gary Peters 44 percent-36 percent. Land is a former two-term secretary of state; Peters is a three-term congressman from the black-majority 14th district. This gives Land a narrow 39.4 percent-38.8 percent lead in the RealClearPolitics average of polls taken in the last five months (a March 2013 Harper poll also showed Land leading by 8 percent, but the 29 percent-21 percent result meant that half the voters had no choice).
The current poll still has 20 percent on the fence and neither of these candidates has a high statewide profile. Secretary of state is normally not a high-visibility office (it issues license plates). Land was elected 55 percent-43 percent in 2002 and re-elected 56 percent-42 percent in 2006, years in which Democrat Jennifer Granholm was elected governor; Land has not been on the statewide ballot since 2006. Peters won a suburban congressional district in 2008, by beating Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg 52 percent-43 percent, and was re-elected 50 percent-47 percent in 2010. Redistricting switched him to a district stretching from inner city Detroit to Pontiac, where in August 2012 he beat black-Bangladeshi one-term incumbent Hansen Clarke 47 percent-35 percent in the Democratic primary. Two other black candidates won 17 percent of the vote, and so he must have considered himself vulnerable in a one-on-one primary against a well-known black challenger. So this looks like a race between a Republican who has nothing political to lose and a Democrat who has decided it's up or out.
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What this poll, conducted by a Republican firm, tells us is not that that may not be the case -- not that Land should be regarded as anything like a clear favorite. Despite the presumed advantage of having the Democratic label, Peters has not gotten more than 43 percent in any public poll. His 36 percent in this poll is pretty weak for a Democratic candidate and suggests that Obamacare has hurt his party's brand. That's corroborated by the party identification question, which shows a 32 percent-27 percent Democratic edge over Republicans -- in contrast to the 2012 exit poll, which showed a 40 percent-30percent Democratic party identification edge in Michigan. This looks like a race either candidate could win.
Terri is well known, well respected, and was a well liked SOS.
Sending the GOPer Spencer Abraham to the ash heap has been a long time in getting straightened out.
Has Land been assaulted by the MSM barrage yet?
Are the Dems going to fund a Libertarian to bleed R votes?
The republicans asked Dave Camp to run but he declined thank God.
Michigan usually votes Republican in off years, largely thanks to low turnout in the inner cities.
Engler won three terms as governor from 1990-2002. The AG and Sec of State have been Republican since 2002 and 1994. 2010 was a wave year where we have veto-proof majority in the state senate.
Camp would have been another Hoekstra.
You obviously picked up what I picked up. The Dem looks like a total dweeb. That has to be worth several points right there.
TLL would be a vast improvement over Karl(Marx)Levin and an improvement over Spencer Abraham. At least for the first 6 years.
Here are a couple of ads that have been running against Peters. Going right for Peters Obamacare vote and spending.
Land is tea party friendly too. It was largely tea partiers and GOP conservatives who put her on the RNC.
I have no faith in polls whatsoever. This last election cycle completely broke whatever inkling of an idea that I had that polls actually mean anything. They don’t. People lie, people say 1 thing and do another, constantly.
“Has Land been assaulted by the MSM barrage yet?”
It’ll start if she’s able to close a few lanes on the International Bridge!
you have to wonder how many people will still be living in detroit come November as the mass exodus never stops, that would be the primary reason the GOP will take the state in the next two elections.