Skip to comments.How Obama Will Win The 2014 Election – With Help From Karl Rove
Posted on 01/20/2014 1:22:00 PM PST by Main Street
Conservative iconoclast M. Stanton Evans once aptly remarked that in America: "We have two parties... and only two. One is the evil party, and the other is the stupid party." The evil party gave us ObamaCare, an imperial judiciary and the public morality of a Babylonian brothel.
The stupid party gave us Karl Rove.
On January 15, The Wall Street Journal ran a Rove commentary, the title of which proclaimed, "Independents Will Decide the 2014 Elections: Debunking the myth that turning out the base alone is enough to win."
Republican consultants are the only group whose failures bring them business and prestige. On Election Day 2012, Rove the prognosticator of prognosticators and seer of seers predicted Romney would win with 285 electoral votes. He lost with 206, to Obama's 332.
Although they're not exactly in touch with reality, Rove and the Chris Christie wing of the Republican Party are setting the stage for a reprise of 2012.
When he ran for reelection, Obama should have been buried in a landslide. His first term was marked by the highest sustained unemployment in memory on top of a mass exodus from the job market. The National Debt increased by almost half. Two months before the balloting, there was the humiliation of seeing American bodies dragged through the streets of Benghazi.
The prospect of ObamaCare made Americans queasy. His administration was wracked by scandals and the president seemed remote, detached and inclined to lavish living in a time of mounting misery, an epicurean socialist who'd managed to combine the ideologies of Saul Alinsky and Marie Antoinette. His speeches put teleprompters to sleep.
Republicans nominated what the party elite, Rove among them, saw as the perfect foil for the community-organizer-in-chief a competent administrator, proven job-creator, and a candidate who was elected governor of a deep-blue state. Never mind that he changed his positions the way Zsa Zsa Gabor changed husbands.
The Democrats took what should have been an advantage in a down economy and turned it into a negative. Romney was one of those rich Republicans (it's hard to be successful in business and not get rich) who didn't care about the little guy, they told us. Instead of a venture capitalist who had saved ailing businesses, he was a corporate corsair and tax-cheat who cannibalized companies and slashed jobs.
The middle class never bought this; Obama's base did. The message was aimed at mobilizing the ideological, the envious, public employees, angry, single women and the mooch brigade the Democrats' core constituency.
Romney's answer was not marked by manly firmness, "The president is a nice guy, but we just can't afford him for four more years," Mitt the Mild peeped. Republicans accepted the media line that voters hate negative campaigning and will punish the perps. Democrats didn't.
Rove isn't just wrong, he's wrong the way Napoleon was wrong when he invaded Russia. Today, elections aren't won in the middle but on the fringes. It's not about who can appeal to so-called independents (most are aligned with one party or the other, but won't admit it) but who can best identify and mobilize their base. At this, Democrats are particularly adept and Republicans depressingly inept.
That's why Obama felt comfortable taking positions far to the left of most Americans in the months leading up to the election: executive amnesties, contraceptive mandates, gay marriage, his war on domestic energy production, and telling successful businessmen "You didn't build that," leading some to wonder whether he was running for president or commissar.
Despite outward appearances, Obama wasn't campaigning for the votes of independents. Politics may be the only place where he's not stupid. He was playing to the Democratic base. That he carried every swing state Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia and Florida shows how well the strategy worked.
Romney shunned wedge issues. The Second Amendment, freedom of religion, the right to life, and defense of marriage were barely mentioned. Romney and his handlers took a page from Clinton's 1992 playbook it's the economy stupid and held on for dear life.
On the campaign trail, it was all jobs, jobs, jobs and taxes, taxes, taxes. As a result, Romney lost, lost, lost, notwithstanding that he took the independent vote handily, 50% to 45%, nationally. Wait, I thought you couldn't win without independents. Obama did.
While winning the hearts of independents, the governor failed to motivate conservatives. Those who voted for him did so reluctantly. Many found more pressing concerns than voting on Election Day.
As a candidate in Massachusetts, Romney was proudly pro-abortion. His health care plan (which he absurdly maintained was nothing like Obama's) provided abortions with a $50-co-pay. Along with an activist judiciary, he was responsible for making Mass the first gay marriage state. While he disavowed all of this on entering the national stage, conservatives were, at the least, skeptical.
When the Republican Party stopped nominating Republicans, voter participation fell from 62.3% in 2004 to 57.5% in 2012.
According to pollster George Barna, evangelical and born-again voters, who constitute 38% of the electorate more than four times the proportion of Hispanics went for Romney by only 60%. Obama got 74% of the Hispanic vote. If Romney had done as well with these committed Christians, it would have been his hand on the Bible on January 21, 2013.
Romney's refusal to discuss the core issues religious conservatives care deeply about (other than as throwaway lines) life, marriage, family, freedom of religion guaranteed that many would stay home.
Once again this year, instead of mobilizing their base, Republicans like Rove will strive to alienate it, in a desperate bid for votes they'll never get.
Supposedly, Romney lost Latinos with his silly self-deportation plan. But in 2008, Juan McCain, Senor Amnesty, got 31% of the Hispanic vote, compared to 28% for Mitt in 2012. If Romney had done as well or as poorly as McCain, he would have gotten four percentage points more (of 9% of the electorate) and the outcome, you do the math, would have been exactly the same.
This year, Wall Street Republicans are advising the party to get immigration off the table, to avoid further offending Hispanics.
If Republicans rabbits like Speaker John Boehner help the president to pass another amnesty, two things will happen: Hispanics will still vote overwhelming Democratic, based on their perceived economic interests. Hispanic households are twice as likely to benefit from a major welfare program as white families (40% versus 20%).
At the same time, Main Street voters who care deeply about fairness (for taxpayers, workers and legal immigrants), loss of national identity, national security and the economic consequences of illegal immigration will walk away from the GOP in disgust.
Like 2012, this year, the stars should be perfectly aligned for a GOP blowout.
In the Senate, Democrats are defending 21 seats. Republicans have only 14 up. Most of the latter are in red territory. Many Democratic seats are in states where the government is controlled by Republicans or which the GOP nominee carried in the last two presidential elections.
Three-fourths of those polled think our nation is headed in the wrong direction. In a late December Gallup poll, 72% said "big government" is the gravest threat to America, the highest percentage since Gallup began asking this question in 1965. In a Rasmussen poll last week, 46%, a plurality, said long-term benefits increase unemployment and 53% thought economic growth was more important than "fairness."
In the same Rasmussen poll, 51% said they disapprove of the president's performance, 48% approve. More revealing is how strongly each sides feels. While 25% strongly approve of Obama, 40% strongly disapprove.
The December jobs report shows Obamanomics to be the equivalent of phrenology or flat-earth theory. Economists were expecting 193,000 new jobs to be created last month. Instead, we got 74,000. Of those, 40,000 are temporary. The unemployment rate fell from 7% to 6.7% only because another 347,000 workers left the labor force. There are now 92 million outside the work force giving us the lowest participation rate in 36 years. If the Americans who retired early or gave up on ever finding a job were counted, the unemployment rate would be 10.2%.
But that's not enough for our income-leveling president, who wants to throw millions more out of work by raising the minimum wage and encouraging illegal immigration. Again, he thumbs his nose at ordinary Americans and ignores economic reality to stoke a fire under his base.
The Benghazi and IRS scandals continue to percolate. Last week, Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testified before a congressional committee that while the attack was going on, the president was told it was terrorism. Not only did Obama fail to save the lives of four Americans, he and his lackeys spent weeks lying about the nature of the atrocity, maintaining it was a spontaneous protest rather than an act of terrorism.
The Department of Justice announced that no criminal charges would come out of the IRS's systematic targeting of Tea Party and conservative groups leading up to the 2012 election. Then came the news that the DOJ lawyer in charge of the investigation is a long-time Obama donor.
The foregoing should lead to a wipeout for Democratic congressional candidates. But RINOS are riding to the rescue of the president and his party.
Recall Boehner's senseless attack on the Tea Parties (which made him Speaker) this fall. In a just-published interview in the News Republic, Senator Juan slammed the Tea Parties and called Fox News "schizophrenic." Coming from a man who's famous for his borderline psychotic temper, this must hurt.
A story in The Wall Street Journal, in late December, disclosed that major GOP donors, including the Chamber of Commerce and American Crossroads (Rove's super PAC), "are preparing an aggressive effort to groom and support more centrist Republican candidates (read RINOs) for Congress in 2014's midterm elections." In last week's commentary, Rove repeated the rationale for this losing strategy.
If Rove and Co. succeed, the Party will end up with a lot of Jon Huntsmans running this year. These more-centrists will avoid social issues, punt on immigration, come out for "sensible gun control," and scurry to what the media tells them is the middle.
The evil party can always count on the support of the stupid party.
And some people will give it away before one vote is cast. You beat them by wining primaries.
The GOP ‘losing’ 2014 is a recurrent theme here lately (talk radio too), yet the Dems will be losing more than a few seats in 2014, seats that the GOP will pick-up.
So later on this year ‘losing’ will be re-defined as ‘not winning all seats in both houses’ if that’s what it takes to claim it was a loss.
In fact I heard Levin a couple of weeks ago pull something similar “Why didn’t the GOP win every Senate Seat in 2012?”
I’m not as negative as this view.
Remember as the election arrives, 65 to 85 million folks are going to find their employer-based healthcare is no longer what it used to be.
It is the job of the GOP to make sure that this country is perpetually ruled by Liberals.
Reads like a Democrat insider.
Malcontents like you are the bigger threat because you pretend there's a group of perfect conservatives out there and everyone else must be purged.
People like you will insure an Obama win in '14.
Independents won’t matter after the GOP passes amnesty.
Tens of millions of conservatives will abandon the GOP.
Great pic Vet!
Kind of like the GOPe claim that tea partiers cost us races in 2012. They point to a couple of high profile races (which they largely helped destroy the tea partiers in) while ignoring the races tea partiers did win.
The finger pointing was both ways.
Romney's 47% video slip was about as embarrassing as Tod Akin. Both were gifts to Dems.
We really do not have two parties: We have one hard-core, committed, win-at-all-costs party; and, then we have an ersatz Party that serves as “fly paper” for the real party, draining — in the name of “political reality” — millions of dollars and millions of votes from those who genuinely wish to opposed the one real party.
Mr. Rove: You are not on my side.
Obama has the IRS , NSA etc etc ,he does not need Karl
Oh shut up.
You've been around long enough to know the Republican party is now PART of the problem in this country. I don't want ANYONE else that Rove likes driving the direction of the country; including the current crop of idiots pushing for amnesty.
I understand what you are saying but sometimes I get the feeling that the only Republicans he wants are RINOs.
What you identify is in the air, a sense of hopelessness, given the ominous advances of influence of Islam in the West (did you read of the favorable treatment of Islam in Alabama public school textbooks, made available for free by the Muslim movers and shakers) and then also the real shell shock Americans are experiencing when realizing more than half of the country is this extent of ignorant, suicidal, bankrupt of patriotism.
I hearken to the movie documentary by Dinish DeSouza and understand these upcoming elections will likely be our last hurrah, before all hell breaks loose. We are in a holding pattern watching events unfold, not unlike the populations of Britain and France at the cusp of the war years.
Seems we have no leadership in place to the measure of Churchill, or DeGaull.
An Establishment operator is not an unusual appearance on FR, however, we have been able to step over their body of work for quite some time when it shows up.
We use Rove apologists remarks as red meat for leaving Rove and the Establishment to their own deserved condition on election day. That would be in the LOSS column.
It's hard to mobilize your base when you consider them the enemy.
...No, it is traitors and Trojan Horses like yourself...
That I think is a bit out of line.
Of course the GOP is throwing the election ..... employer-paid healthcare plans are not completely dead yet!
Fortune 500 CEO's need the GOP to guarantee them that they will never, ever again be asked to provide health insurance for employees, and can flow those dollars to their bottom lines (after generous deductions for management incentive comp, of course).
The CEO's want Obamacare. They need a program to dump their people off on. It's that simple.
And Rove and Boehner will keep on "getting it wrong" until Sovietcare is the law of the land, and great companies skate free.
DINGGGGG! -- You win a kewpie doll. Which color would you like?
You are delusional to think Rove’s strategy of attacking the base will win elections.
If the GOP does not commit to ending ObamaCare, deporting 100% of all Illegal Aliens, and commit to Border Security/Nat’l Security....they will lose big
Conservative folks will not vote for a liberal GOP...nor will fall for the Liberal “vote GOP so a Dem doesn’t win” nonsense anymore
If Rove works to elect “conservatives” like Boehner and McCain, then the choice is Democrat or Democrat Lite. The only difference is that the Democrat Lite party will, as we approach the cliff, let up o the throttle just a little - as long as it doesn’t offend the Democrats too much.
The reason why Progressives might win is because a large part of the electorate loves them, actually loves them.
For several weeks I have pointed out that the Democrat's “income inequality” theme is focused directly on Blacks, Hispanics, immigrants, and poor white women voters.
The turn out for those four groups in off year elections is traditionally very, very bad.
It's a simple math problem.
If those four groups turn out at the same rate that white voters turn out, the Republicans will gain no seats in the Senate, and we will actually lose seats in the House.
In the 2012 election, white voters gave Romney a 59%-39% crushing victory over Obama.
But Mitt Romney, the GOP leadership, and Karl Rove demoralized Conservatives so badly, 4 million of them stayed home.
In 2014, Boehner, McConnell, and Paul Ryan are doing everything possible to demoralize us once again.
If they succeed, more than 4 million will stay home in 2014.
Gingrich was spot on with this comment, someone needs to take a big ole bite out her hide in order for anything to stick to her, politically. The nitpicking won't even piss her off after a few years.
The LGBT Community
American Indians (oops: Native Americans)
Three of my Five Children
EBT Card Holders
White NRA Members
Besides Ted Cruz and a handful of Tea Party congressmen, there are no - repeat, no - Republicans who publicly advocate repealing ObamaCare.
Boehner, McConnell, and Paul Ryan advocate “Mend it, don't end it.”
Which is exactly what the Democrats will advocate.
Why are people going to vote for fake Democrats, when they can vote for the real ones?
I have said and will continue to say on these pages that if the GOP is seen by its base as facilitating the adoption of invader amnesty, the GOP will cease to be a national party within one election cycle. It will simply go away overnight, and deservedly so.
You nailed it!
Last week, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said he expects Republicans to come up with a healthcare plan later this year to replace Obamacare.
It looks like the goose-steppers outnumber the ones whose ancesters fought the goosesteppers.
"Those Democrats leering over my shoulder owe me bigtime. This
healthcare bill insures we have a permanent Democratic majority."
" All except those Tea Party types, swallowed hook, line and sinker my promises that they could:
(1) keep their existing health plans,
(2) keep their own doctors that they like,
(3) keep their 25-year-olds on the family health plan,
(4) never be denied coverage for a pre-existing condition,
(5) sign up instantly on my tech-savvy government Web site,
(6) buy insurance only after becoming seriously ill."
(7) save $2,500 in annual premiums in the bargain....
(8) All without any new taxes."
"Them sonovagun Tea Partiers will rue the day they criticized my wonderful bill." //// THIS JUST IN Dems announce their campaign plans. Nanzi Pelosi Says Dems win in 2014 Focusing on The 3 R: Recruiting, Raising Cash, Raising Issues.
Hmmmmmmm.....that's odd. Nancy plumb forget to mention "Obamacare"--- the signature legislation of their president. Dems had said they were so s-u-r-e Americans would love Obama's wonderful healthcare plan, that O/Care's a winning Democrat issue.
But lately, Dems seem to have gotten the heebie jeebies about Obamacare. Is this why? (cackle)
As far back as 2008, at the presidential debate in Nashville, Democrat candidate Obama advanced his signature plan that was ultimately enacted (by an historic straight Democrat party-line vote) into the "Affordable Care Act :
OBAMA: "No. 1, let me just repeat, if youve got a health care plan that you like, you can keep it. All Im going to do is help you to lower the premiums on it. Youll still have choice of doctor.
Repeated over and over ---- with the promise that every American family would be saving $2500.00 on healthcare costs.
LOCK-STEPPING PARTY LOYALTY NOT SEEN SINCE 1940's ERA EUROPE Obama And The Dumbos marched in lockstep. The persistent Dumbocrat drumbeat ---- in obeisance to Obama ---- kept ringing reassuringly in our ears: "If you like your plan, you can keep your plan."