Skip to comments.Robert Shiller: Iím still investing in the stock market ("despite bubble like conditions")
Posted on 01/22/2014 6:50:32 AM PST by Red in Blue PA
Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC at the World Economic Forum that he is still investing in the stock market despite warning of bubble-like conditions.
Shiller said that his own long-term valuation metric for stock markets, which measures price-to-earnings based on average inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years, was currently high at 25. But it was still well below the record high of 46 reached in 2000.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
People do not want to be poorly perceived now as saying anything but positive about the market. Not a good sign of things to come.
Inevitably when things like this happen, a fall comes soon after.
Be real. Nothing will happen before the election to make Obama and the Dems look bad.
The markets are bigger than any one man, any central bank.
They are reflective of the psychology of billions of people.
Politics cannot control that.
Buy American. There is a massive American business opportunity right now.
Almost everything has been de-Americanized.
Bring back the American sources of businesses. Stop selling out our own country.
This is the huge opportunity which awaits.
And yout think the crash right before elction day 2008 was a coincidence? Right.
The one to watch for is when they insist that the market isn’t going to crash any time soon.
If it is inefficient and ill cost me money, I will not buy it regardless if it is red, white an blue.
One serves their own self-interest, this means buying companies which will make them money, regardless of their locale.
If you are asking if I believe there was a conspiracy to take down the markets, then absolutely not, I do not believe that.
The market will be allowed to drop occasionally so as to give the talking heads on CNBC something to wring their hands about, but the market will not be allowed to crash so long as Zero occupies the White Hut.
Dang! At first glance I thought it said “Robert Shuller” (Chrystal Cathedral). Oh well.
America is a huge democratic society.
When our commercial activity, removes enough jobs from the America labor force, to ruin our own economy, it will respond with a forceful reaction.
American businesses will result.
Wait if you want.
I would start looking at American opportunities now.
You people are nuts.
The market is made up of millions of individual buying and selling stocks. I know a lot of people who invest in the market, and not once have I heard a single person say they are buying and selling because of the person in the White House.
Look up an interview with Jonathan Cahn on the Harbinger topic. You’ll see what the crash of 2008 was about, and that we should look for something far worse in 2015.
One of my favorite American companies for the long-term is Starbucks, yet that will be trashed by many here.
This company makes a product which sells at a premium to all others, and still the lines are out the door....in the worst economy in 60 years......with virtually no advertising (when was the last time you saw a Starbucks commercial????)
When it comes to the stock market, can you really do that? Even "Amercian" companies have supply chains and operations that stretch out of reach of our soil.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not anti-American business or its workers, but if you're an investor, you have to look at the companies that are performing.
That’s a good point about Starbucks.
Sears, Kmart, and JCPenney can’t get people to buy a shirt, but Starbucks has them lined up for over priced coffee.
I love to hate them, but they do make money.
Well they are not selling imports.
(except for the non-beverage stuff, which is made anywhere)
I was a Dunkin Donuts fan for the longest time, until I started researching Starbucks as an investment. The fact that they performed so well through the recession since 2008 showed me all that I needed to know. The fact that they did it without commercials was simply the icing on the cake.
I now have a Starbucks Gold Card and that is my exclusive coffee shop.
Overall, though, I think the horses are out of the barn on “buy American”.
I remember about 15 or 20 years ago, Walmart had a buy American section in the store. I got the impression it didn’t do so well, so it just faded away.
I don’t think you can buy electronics made here if you wanted to now. Probably clothes, too for that matter.
Guns and ammo stocks are still made here, but Ruger is up from 5 in 2009 to 77 right now, so it is not the ideal time to buy that.
Do you remember how the stock market did way back in the summer of 2008?
The DOW is political. Has nothing to do with business or the economy. QE money goes to the bank which in turn pumps it into the stock market. Not real hard to figure out.
Short term, political things like QE may influence the market.
But over the long-term, the market is never fooled.
The problem is, buying imports now starts to impact our Strategic place in the globe.
We have sent so many manufacturing plants to China, that China is now the largest exporter on the entire planet, and China runs something like a 300 trillion surplus with us now.
And growing. Constant. Every single year. China sells America something like 400 trillion in goods. America sells China something like 100 trillion.
America has completely lost sight of what it means to be in a leadership role.
We need to get back, what we have sent abroad.
The market was headed south until the bottom in March of 2009. It has been on a bull run to a record top ever since, in spite of the Obamanation. It has surpassed prior tops in 2000 and 2007. Check the SPY for the past 13+ years. It's looking REAL TOPPY again to me.
They are called corrections.
Does look toppy, just don’t think we’re there yet. But looking for good bear funds/ETF’s, anyone?
Oh I’m checking SPY literally about every minute these days. I started shorting last week, and added some more at yesterday’s open.
This is a variation on the old “it’s different this time”.
It’s never different ever.
Timely subject. This morning on Varney, a guy (Harry Dent) predicted the market would go up to 17500 this May and then spiral down to 5000 by 2016.
Both Varney & Charles agreed that the guy’s research was good.
The caveat he mentioned was the affect of all the government spending (I guess as to timing).
Guy reccomended cash positions and COG, which I haven’t researched yet. (I usually hit FR first:)
Whoops, COG was Charles pick for the day.
UUP was a dollar following stock that was reccomended by Dent
First, see “Quantitative Easing”. It is the only thing supporting the market at this bubbly level.
Second, the millions of small investors do not set the tone for the market. The sheep are there to be sheared, not to drive the market. The market is driven by the big corporate investors.
Money is flowing out of bond funds due to rising rates, diminishing rates of return. Tat money is going into equity funds, pushing stocks up at the expense of bond funds.
I used to read Harry Dent years back.
Now I follow Clif Droke. Ever hear of him?
I’ve been reading about the Kress Cycles (Samuel J. Kress) and how 2014 is supposed to see the bottoming of the 120 yr cycle. Interesting stuff.
I don’t like the idea of shorting as theoretically your losses are limitless while your gains are finite.
And we are well overdue for one. The longer we go without one, the bigger it will be when it does finally arrive.
I follow Varney & Charles Payne, they bring the guests with ideas one way or another.
I think there will be a big correction come the later half of 2015 because of ObamaCare. Public companies have a fiduciary responsibility to minimize costs. Dumping people on the ObamaCare Exchange and paying a $2,000 penalty/employee is cheaper than keeping them on the companies’ health care insurance rolls. From what I can tell ObamaCare ain't cheap. Considering that about 70% of the US economy is supported by consumer spending, we are in for a pretty nasty dip. And don't forget ObamaCare's definition of full time! That's going hurt as well.
Anyone who claims they can see farther out than 3 months is lying. Nobody can do it today, nor will they be able to in 100 years.
If their “forecasts” had any meaning, they would not be made public.
I wasn’t aware. That is very helpful and makes sense. Thank you.