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Robert Shiller: Iím still investing in the stock market ("despite bubble like conditions")
CNBC ^

Posted on 01/22/2014 6:50:32 AM PST by Red in Blue PA

Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC at the World Economic Forum that he is still investing in the stock market despite warning of bubble-like conditions.

Shiller said that his own long-term valuation metric for stock markets, which measures price-to-earnings based on average inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years, was currently high at 25. But it was still well below the record high of 46 reached in 2000.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: finance; investing
I am not one to sound alarm bells, but to me, they are going off when I read stuff like this.

People do not want to be poorly perceived now as saying anything but positive about the market. Not a good sign of things to come.

Inevitably when things like this happen, a fall comes soon after.

1 posted on 01/22/2014 6:50:32 AM PST by Red in Blue PA
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To: Red in Blue PA

Be real. Nothing will happen before the election to make Obama and the Dems look bad.


2 posted on 01/22/2014 6:54:48 AM PST by petercooper ("I was for letting people keep their health insurance, before I wasn't". --- Barack Obama)
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To: petercooper

The markets are bigger than any one man, any central bank.

They are reflective of the psychology of billions of people.

Politics cannot control that.


3 posted on 01/22/2014 6:56:38 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Red in Blue PA

Buy American. There is a massive American business opportunity right now.

Almost everything has been de-Americanized.

Bring back the American sources of businesses. Stop selling out our own country.

This is the huge opportunity which awaits.

Buy American.

Just saying...


4 posted on 01/22/2014 6:56:53 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network ( http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: Red in Blue PA

And yout think the crash right before elction day 2008 was a coincidence? Right.


5 posted on 01/22/2014 6:58:12 AM PST by petercooper ("I was for letting people keep their health insurance, before I wasn't". --- Barack Obama)
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To: Red in Blue PA

The one to watch for is when they insist that the market isn’t going to crash any time soon.


6 posted on 01/22/2014 6:59:03 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

If it is inefficient and ill cost me money, I will not buy it regardless if it is red, white an blue.

One serves their own self-interest, this means buying companies which will make them money, regardless of their locale.


7 posted on 01/22/2014 6:59:27 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: petercooper

If you are asking if I believe there was a conspiracy to take down the markets, then absolutely not, I do not believe that.


8 posted on 01/22/2014 7:00:25 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: petercooper

Bingo.

The market will be allowed to drop occasionally so as to give the talking heads on CNBC something to wring their hands about, but the market will not be allowed to crash so long as Zero occupies the White Hut.


9 posted on 01/22/2014 7:00:57 AM PST by Arm_Bears (Refuse; Resist; Rebel; Revolt!)
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To: MrB
The one to watch for is when they insist that the market isn’t going to crash any time soon.

I am starting to hear a variant of this more and more.

Journalist: "Do you think the market is overvalue?"

Analyst: "Yes, but........."
10 posted on 01/22/2014 7:01:45 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Red in Blue PA

Dang! At first glance I thought it said “Robert Shuller” (Chrystal Cathedral). Oh well.


11 posted on 01/22/2014 7:02:30 AM PST by sueQ
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To: Red in Blue PA

Just saying.

America is a huge democratic society.

When our commercial activity, removes enough jobs from the America labor force, to ruin our own economy, it will respond with a forceful reaction.

American businesses will result.

Wait if you want.

I would start looking at American opportunities now.


12 posted on 01/22/2014 7:02:42 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network ( http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: Arm_Bears

You people are nuts.

The market is made up of millions of individual buying and selling stocks. I know a lot of people who invest in the market, and not once have I heard a single person say they are buying and selling because of the person in the White House.


13 posted on 01/22/2014 7:03:00 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: petercooper

Look up an interview with Jonathan Cahn on the Harbinger topic. You’ll see what the crash of 2008 was about, and that we should look for something far worse in 2015.


14 posted on 01/22/2014 7:04:04 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

One of my favorite American companies for the long-term is Starbucks, yet that will be trashed by many here.

This company makes a product which sells at a premium to all others, and still the lines are out the door....in the worst economy in 60 years......with virtually no advertising (when was the last time you saw a Starbucks commercial????)


15 posted on 01/22/2014 7:05:18 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
Buy American.

When it comes to the stock market, can you really do that? Even "Amercian" companies have supply chains and operations that stretch out of reach of our soil.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not anti-American business or its workers, but if you're an investor, you have to look at the companies that are performing.

16 posted on 01/22/2014 7:07:55 AM PST by Lou L (Health "insurance" is NOT the same as health "care")
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To: Red in Blue PA

That’s a good point about Starbucks.

Sears, Kmart, and JCPenney can’t get people to buy a shirt, but Starbucks has them lined up for over priced coffee.

I love to hate them, but they do make money.


17 posted on 01/22/2014 7:08:09 AM PST by TheGipperWasRight
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To: TheGipperWasRight

Well they are not selling imports.

(except for the non-beverage stuff, which is made anywhere)

Just saying.


18 posted on 01/22/2014 7:10:08 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network ( http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: TheGipperWasRight

I was a Dunkin Donuts fan for the longest time, until I started researching Starbucks as an investment. The fact that they performed so well through the recession since 2008 showed me all that I needed to know. The fact that they did it without commercials was simply the icing on the cake.

I now have a Starbucks Gold Card and that is my exclusive coffee shop.


19 posted on 01/22/2014 7:10:25 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Overall, though, I think the horses are out of the barn on “buy American”.

I remember about 15 or 20 years ago, Walmart had a buy American section in the store. I got the impression it didn’t do so well, so it just faded away.

I don’t think you can buy electronics made here if you wanted to now. Probably clothes, too for that matter.


20 posted on 01/22/2014 7:12:31 AM PST by TheGipperWasRight
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To: TheGipperWasRight

Guns and ammo stocks are still made here, but Ruger is up from 5 in 2009 to 77 right now, so it is not the ideal time to buy that.


21 posted on 01/22/2014 7:13:40 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: petercooper
Be real. Nothing will happen before the election to make Obama and the Dems look bad.

Do you remember how the stock market did way back in the summer of 2008?

22 posted on 01/22/2014 7:22:49 AM PST by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: Red in Blue PA

The DOW is political. Has nothing to do with business or the economy. QE money goes to the bank which in turn pumps it into the stock market. Not real hard to figure out.


23 posted on 01/22/2014 7:27:39 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: central_va

Short term, political things like QE may influence the market.

But over the long-term, the market is never fooled.


24 posted on 01/22/2014 7:32:11 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: TheGipperWasRight

The problem is, buying imports now starts to impact our Strategic place in the globe.

We have sent so many manufacturing plants to China, that China is now the largest exporter on the entire planet, and China runs something like a 300 trillion surplus with us now.

And growing. Constant. Every single year. China sells America something like 400 trillion in goods. America sells China something like 100 trillion.

Constantly.

America has completely lost sight of what it means to be in a leadership role.

We need to get back, what we have sent abroad.

Buy American.


25 posted on 01/22/2014 7:33:06 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network ( http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: jiggyboy
Yes it declined about 10%. September comes along, McCain takes the lead against Obama- market tanks. Very coincidental.
26 posted on 01/22/2014 7:57:43 AM PST by petercooper ("I was for letting people keep their health insurance, before I wasn't". --- Barack Obama)
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To: jiggyboy
Do you remember how the stock market did way back in the summer of 2008?

The market was headed south until the bottom in March of 2009. It has been on a bull run to a record top ever since, in spite of the Obamanation. It has surpassed prior tops in 2000 and 2007. Check the SPY for the past 13+ years. It's looking REAL TOPPY again to me.

27 posted on 01/22/2014 8:00:55 AM PST by shove_it (long ago Orwell and Rand warned us of Obama’s America)
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To: Red in Blue PA
“But over the long-term, the market is never fooled.”

They are called corrections.

28 posted on 01/22/2014 8:11:10 AM PST by Chgogal (Obama "hung the SEALs out to dry, basically exposed them like a set of dog balls..." CMH)
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To: shove_it

Does look toppy, just don’t think we’re there yet. But looking for good bear funds/ETF’s, anyone?


29 posted on 01/22/2014 8:13:45 AM PST by petercooper ("I was for letting people keep their health insurance, before I wasn't". --- Barack Obama)
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To: shove_it

Oh I’m checking SPY literally about every minute these days. I started shorting last week, and added some more at yesterday’s open.


30 posted on 01/22/2014 8:14:15 AM PST by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: Red in Blue PA

This is a variation on the old “it’s different this time”.

It’s never different ever.


31 posted on 01/22/2014 8:19:27 AM PST by Flick Lives (Got a problem with the government? Have a complaint. Get a free IRS audit!)
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To: petercooper; Red in Blue PA

Timely subject. This morning on Varney, a guy (Harry Dent) predicted the market would go up to 17500 this May and then spiral down to 5000 by 2016.

Both Varney & Charles agreed that the guy’s research was good.

The caveat he mentioned was the affect of all the government spending (I guess as to timing).

Guy reccomended cash positions and COG, which I haven’t researched yet. (I usually hit FR first:)


32 posted on 01/22/2014 8:46:30 AM PST by Cold Heart
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To: Cold Heart; petercooper; Red in Blue PA

Whoops, COG was Charles pick for the day.

UUP was a dollar following stock that was reccomended by Dent


33 posted on 01/22/2014 8:58:10 AM PST by Cold Heart
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To: Red in Blue PA

First, see “Quantitative Easing”. It is the only thing supporting the market at this bubbly level.

Second, the millions of small investors do not set the tone for the market. The sheep are there to be sheared, not to drive the market. The market is driven by the big corporate investors.


34 posted on 01/22/2014 9:30:38 AM PST by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (Free goodies for all -- Freedom for none.)
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free

Money is flowing out of bond funds due to rising rates, diminishing rates of return. Tat money is going into equity funds, pushing stocks up at the expense of bond funds.


35 posted on 01/22/2014 9:41:27 AM PST by rstrahan
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To: Cold Heart; Red in Blue PA

I used to read Harry Dent years back.

Now I follow Clif Droke. Ever hear of him?

http://www.safehaven.com/author/25/clif-droke

I’ve been reading about the Kress Cycles (Samuel J. Kress) and how 2014 is supposed to see the bottoming of the 120 yr cycle. Interesting stuff.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32228/a-melt-up-then-a-melt-down-in-2014


36 posted on 01/22/2014 10:37:42 AM PST by petercooper ("I was for letting people keep their health insurance, before I wasn't". --- Barack Obama)
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To: jiggyboy

I don’t like the idea of shorting as theoretically your losses are limitless while your gains are finite.


37 posted on 01/22/2014 12:09:40 PM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Chgogal

And we are well overdue for one. The longer we go without one, the bigger it will be when it does finally arrive.


38 posted on 01/22/2014 12:10:54 PM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: petercooper

I follow Varney & Charles Payne, they bring the guests with ideas one way or another.


39 posted on 01/22/2014 12:31:15 PM PST by Cold Heart
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To: Red in Blue PA
I dvr’d Varney today (haven't done that in a while). There was this guy on (Dent was his name). He feels strongly about a huge correction to take place about 2016. He's basing his predictions on demographics.

I think there will be a big correction come the later half of 2015 because of ObamaCare. Public companies have a fiduciary responsibility to minimize costs. Dumping people on the ObamaCare Exchange and paying a $2,000 penalty/employee is cheaper than keeping them on the companies’ health care insurance rolls. From what I can tell ObamaCare ain't cheap. Considering that about 70% of the US economy is supported by consumer spending, we are in for a pretty nasty dip. And don't forget ObamaCare's definition of full time! That's going hurt as well.

40 posted on 01/22/2014 12:58:46 PM PST by Chgogal (Obama "hung the SEALs out to dry, basically exposed them like a set of dog balls..." CMH)
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To: Chgogal

Anyone who claims they can see farther out than 3 months is lying. Nobody can do it today, nor will they be able to in 100 years.


41 posted on 01/22/2014 1:00:05 PM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Red in Blue PA
It's a forecast, Freeper. Nothing more. Has nothing to do with clairvoyance.
42 posted on 01/22/2014 3:20:05 PM PST by Chgogal (Obama "hung the SEALs out to dry, basically exposed them like a set of dog balls..." CMH)
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To: Chgogal

If their “forecasts” had any meaning, they would not be made public.


43 posted on 01/22/2014 5:56:28 PM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: rstrahan

I wasn’t aware. That is very helpful and makes sense. Thank you.


44 posted on 01/23/2014 10:48:09 AM PST by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (Free goodies for all -- Freedom for none.)
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