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What Jobs Will the Robots Take?
The Atlantic ^ | Jan 23 2014 | Derek Thompson

Posted on 01/24/2014 2:28:11 PM PST by Second Amendment First

It is an invisible force that goes by many names. Computerization. Automation. Artificial intelligence. Technology. Innovation. And, everyone's favorite, ROBOTS.

Whatever name you prefer, some form of it has been stoking progress and killing jobs—from seamstresses to paralegals—for centuries. But this time is different: Nearly half of American jobs today could be automated in "a decade or two," according to a new paper by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, discussed recently in The Economist. The question is: Which half?

Another way of posing the same question is: Where do machines work better than people? Tractors are more powerful than farmers. Robotic arms are stronger and more tireless than assembly-line workers. But in the past 30 years, software and robots have thrived at replacing a particular kind of occupation: the average-wage, middle-skill, routine-heavy worker, especially in manufacturing and office admin.

Indeed, Frey and Osborne project that the next wave of computer progress will continue to shred human work where it already has: manufacturing, administrative support, retail, and transportation. Most remaining factory jobs are "likely to diminish over the next decades," they write. Cashiers, counter clerks, and telemarketers are similarly endangered. On the far right side of this graph, you can see the industry breakdown of the 47 percent of jobs they consider at "high risk."

(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:
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While computerization has been historically confined to routine tasks involving explicit rule-based activities, algorithms for big data are now rapidly entering domains reliant upon pattern recognition and can readily substitute for labour in a wide range of non-routine cognitive tasks. In addition, advanced robots are gaining enhanced senses and dexterity, allowing them to perform a broader scope of manual tasks. This is likely to change the nature of work across industries and occupations.
1 posted on 01/24/2014 2:28:11 PM PST by Second Amendment First
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To: Black Agnes
While computerization has been historically confined to routine tasks involving explicit rule-based activities, algorithms for big data are now rapidly entering domains reliant upon pattern recognition and can readily substitute for labour in a wide range of non-routine cognitive tasks. In addition, advanced robots are gaining enhanced senses and dexterity, allowing them to perform a broader scope of manual tasks. This is likely to change the nature of work across industries and occupations.

You might want to weigh in on this.

2 posted on 01/24/2014 2:30:42 PM PST by Alex Murphy ("the defacto Leader of the FR Calvinist Protestant Brigades")
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To: Second Amendment First

I expect to see robots doing police work at some point. Say flying drones checking speeds on the highway then landing to issue citations.


3 posted on 01/24/2014 2:31:18 PM PST by ez (Muslims do not play well with others.)
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To: Second Amendment First
Once the robots unionize, no one will have to worry about them taking over jobs.


4 posted on 01/24/2014 2:31:26 PM PST by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: Second Amendment First

Vice-Presiednt!


5 posted on 01/24/2014 2:32:17 PM PST by Dr. Ursus
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To: Second Amendment First

All of them.


6 posted on 01/24/2014 2:33:50 PM PST by Sirius Lee (All that is required for evil to advance is for government to do "something")
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To: Second Amendment First
Moonshiners?


7 posted on 01/24/2014 2:34:04 PM PST by Hugin
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To: Second Amendment First

politics - DBots will be programmed with variants of the ‘From each according to his ability, to each according to his voting pattern’ algorithms and RBots will be programmed with ‘we agree with and cave into the DBots’ algorithm.


8 posted on 01/24/2014 2:35:24 PM PST by posterchild
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To: Second Amendment First

Couldn’t make it past “more tireless.”


9 posted on 01/24/2014 2:38:16 PM PST by KingLudd
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To: Second Amendment First
What Jobs Will the Robots Take?

POTUS? Congressman? Shoot, couldn't be any worse than it is now. We'll just have it read the Constitution. Hell, a robot might even believe it was supposed to obey the thing.

10 posted on 01/24/2014 2:39:23 PM PST by Still Thinking (Freedom is NOT a loophole!)
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To: Second Amendment First

What Jobs Will the Robots Take?

Making robots..................


11 posted on 01/24/2014 2:40:08 PM PST by Red Badger (Proud member of the Zeta Omicron Tau Fraternity since 2004...................)
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To: Second Amendment First

12 posted on 01/24/2014 2:40:15 PM PST by Vaquero (Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: Hugin

Who is he texting?.................


13 posted on 01/24/2014 2:40:38 PM PST by Red Badger (Proud member of the Zeta Omicron Tau Fraternity since 2004...................)
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To: Second Amendment First

0bama voters.


14 posted on 01/24/2014 2:40:40 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: Alex Murphy

All the white collar workers who said ‘neener neener’ when the blue collar workers were replaced by automation and robots will themselves be replaced by AI.

Once the elites no longer have need of us to make their world go round the fun’ll really start.

Think they’re just ranting about a world population of only 100M people? They’re serious. The rest will be non human workers. Why do you think they’re harping and obsessive on population control? Do you think they want to save the planet for YOUR children? HA!


15 posted on 01/24/2014 2:41:51 PM PST by Black Agnes
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To: Paladin2

‘Feed us because we can’t find a job to match our IQ’ voters.

Your job will be next.

45 years ago most Obama voter types were employed. In jobs that have since been automated. What do you think will become of the IQ 100 and below population? With AI make that IQ 125 and below. Will you be willing to support them with your taxes? Will you simply watch them starve in the streets? Euthanize them? Sterilize them? What will you do with people who can no longer find a job because they’ve been replaced by non human workers.

Inquiring minds want to know.


16 posted on 01/24/2014 2:44:11 PM PST by Black Agnes
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To: Second Amendment First

Let’s test the first robot out in the White House


17 posted on 01/24/2014 2:45:49 PM PST by faithhopecharity (C)
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To: Second Amendment First

State legislators will require professional registration of all occupations in order to protect human labor.


18 posted on 01/24/2014 2:46:00 PM PST by Perdogg (Ted Cruz-Rand Paul 2016)
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To: Second Amendment First
I can think of one thing in particular. Anxiously awaiting the day...


19 posted on 01/24/2014 2:48:29 PM PST by Rodamala
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To: Rodamala

Replacing Justin Bieber?


20 posted on 01/24/2014 2:50:44 PM PST by posterchild
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To: Second Amendment First
Journalists.

And Prostitutes.

That's not redundant, is it?

21 posted on 01/24/2014 2:52:32 PM PST by x
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To: Sirius Lee
All of them.

The industrial revolution made man's bodies obsolete and uncompetitive in the economy.

We adapted by going into the "knowledge economy."

The AI revolution will make everyone's brains obsolete and uncompetitive in the economy.

22 posted on 01/24/2014 2:53:39 PM PST by ClaytonP
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To: x

Journalists should be easy. So many articles seem formulaic with no meaningful questions asked.


23 posted on 01/24/2014 2:56:13 PM PST by posterchild
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To: Second Amendment First

We have known, for decades now since the prophet Steve Martin told us, that robots are stealing our luggage.


24 posted on 01/24/2014 2:57:30 PM PST by ifinnegan
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To: Second Amendment First

A viable socialist utopia requires robots to do our bidding. That is, until someone starts agitating for robot rights.


25 posted on 01/24/2014 3:08:41 PM PST by rightwingcrazy
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To: ez
I expect to see robots doing police work at some point.

There are video surveillance systems augmented with AI that are said to be better at flagging intruders or other suspicious activity than human operators.

26 posted on 01/24/2014 3:14:33 PM PST by cynwoody
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To: Second Amendment First

The robots could take the GOP leadership positions. All the robots would have to do is repeat everything they hear a Democrat say.


27 posted on 01/24/2014 3:25:18 PM PST by freedomfiter2 (Brutal acts of commission and yawning acts of omission both strengthen the hand of the devil.)
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To: Second Amendment First

The robots will do the jobs illegal immigrants won’t do.


28 posted on 01/24/2014 3:28:30 PM PST by beandog (All Aboard the Choo Choo Train to Crazy Town)
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To: Black Agnes

Software tasks are always easily able to overwhelm the hardware.


29 posted on 01/24/2014 3:28:31 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: Second Amendment First

“Nearly half of American jobs today could be automated in “a decade or two,” “

Yeah, and apparently everyone expects these complex machines to materialize out of thin air and then work flawlessly forever after.

Nobody has to design them, build them, monitor them troubleshoot them, repair them or install them.

Can’t wait to se the behemoth that will replace me at my work of on-site monument inscribing and repair. I’ve speced it out in my head and believe me it’s a doozey.


30 posted on 01/24/2014 3:31:50 PM PST by TalBlack
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To: Second Amendment First

Software programming.


31 posted on 01/24/2014 3:35:57 PM PST by ully2
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To: Rodamala
back in the day, she was hot Hot HOT!!!

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32 posted on 01/24/2014 3:37:55 PM PST by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -vvv- NO Pity for the LAZY - 86-44)
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To: Vaquero
i love it...
33 posted on 01/24/2014 3:41:11 PM PST by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -vvv- NO Pity for the LAZY - 86-44)
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To: ClaytonP
The AI revolution will make everyone's brains obsolete and uncompetitive in the economy.

The iPhone has already replaced many people's brains.

34 posted on 01/24/2014 3:45:41 PM PST by Sirius Lee (All that is required for evil to advance is for government to do "something")
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To: Second Amendment First

Can I get one to pull weeds in the garden and do some housekeeping?


35 posted on 01/24/2014 3:51:36 PM PST by bgill
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To: ez

Will a robot who does his job well flipping burgers ever get promoted to Robocop? And, will a Robocop shoot dogs?


36 posted on 01/24/2014 3:57:29 PM PST by VerySadAmerican (".....Barrack, and the horse Mohammed rode in on.")
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To: Second Amendment First
What Jobs Will the Robots Take?

The ones American's don't want to do

37 posted on 01/24/2014 4:05:19 PM PST by frithguild (The warmth and goodness of Gaia is a nuclear reactor in the Earth's core that burns Thorium)
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To: Second Amendment First
Robots will give a leg up to thinking humans...but they steal jobs from those humans unwilling to think.
38 posted on 01/24/2014 4:05:34 PM PST by RoosterRedux (The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing -- Socrates)
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To: Second Amendment First

Hookers. I definitely see Cyborg Hookers within 50 years. They can be made to look like any woman you desire.


39 posted on 01/24/2014 4:08:43 PM PST by PJ-Comix (ObamaCare unsubsidized PAID Enrollment Prediction: 66,666)
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To: TalBlack
Can’t wait to se the behemoth that will replace me at my work of on-site monument inscribing and repair. I’ve speced it out in my head and believe me it’s a doozey.

Sounds like something a robot the size of a vacuum cleaner could do.

40 posted on 01/24/2014 4:14:07 PM PST by itsahoot (It is not so much that history repeats, but that human nature does not change.)
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To: Sirius Lee
The iPhone has already replaced many people's brains.

Someone my age has to do something otherwise conversations consist of a lot of; You know that movie we saw back in 87, their was this guy with a gun that was shooting at the girl who was in the bar and he shot the bartender instead, yeah that guy.

Believe it or not we answer those type questions all the time on our iPad with IMDB.

41 posted on 01/24/2014 4:18:34 PM PST by itsahoot (It is not so much that history repeats, but that human nature does not change.)
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To: Paladin2

And yet hardware continues to improve.

Compare what’s possible right now vs. what was possible in 1994. Now, extrapolate (even conservatively) out to 2034.

What jobs will require humans at all? Very few.


42 posted on 01/24/2014 4:26:40 PM PST by Black Agnes
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To: Second Amendment First

In a freer economy new jobs replace the old. The straight-jacketed government-subsidized econmy of today will prevent that for quite a while, quite a while.

First the managers repace the workers with robots... then the owners replace the managers.
Yes, Twilight Zone did it way back,


43 posted on 01/24/2014 4:31:59 PM PST by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: Second Amendment First

When will the Equal Rights/Wages for ROBOTS movement begin?


44 posted on 01/24/2014 4:39:56 PM PST by SandRat (Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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To: beandog
'The robots will do the jobs illegal immigrants won’t do.'

YES B/D AND AS ANY DECENT AG. MACHINERY ENGINEER WILL TELL YOU THERE IS NOT ONE CROP..NOT ONE.. CROP ..GROWN IN THE USA .THEY CANNOT DESIGN AND BUILD A MACHINE TO PICK.

SOOOO WHY ARE WE NOT BUILDING THESE MACHINES AND HIRING U.S. CITIZENS TO RUN THEM?..... THEREBY RELIEVING THE US. TREASURY OF THE DRAG THE COST ILLEGALS IMPOSE ON IT? FOLKS, AM I MISSING SOMETHING HERE?
45 posted on 01/24/2014 6:50:30 PM PST by jimsin
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To: Second Amendment First

Congress.


46 posted on 01/24/2014 6:53:15 PM PST by Pajamajan (Pray for our nation. Thank the Lord for everything you have. Don't wait. Do it today.)
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To: Bender2

Bender2 PING- your input is requested here.


47 posted on 01/24/2014 7:02:53 PM PST by Pajamajan (Pray for our nation. Thank the Lord for everything you have. Don't wait. Do it today.)
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To: Second Amendment First

Triple the minimum wage. That will slow down the automation process.


48 posted on 01/24/2014 7:03:14 PM PST by Lurkina.n.Learnin (This is not just stupid, we're talking Democrat stupid here.)
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To: Second Amendment First

Once people start replacing wives with robots, I suppose the libs will want to legalize robot/human marriage. Which I think is much better than gay marriage. After all, a robot probably won’t be causing problems with unsafe sex… unless the human dies from sex with the robot then in that case there will be a fight over the robot inheriting everything. Automation, auto-mating, whatever.


49 posted on 01/24/2014 7:48:45 PM PST by roadcat
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To: PJ-Comix
Hookers. I definitely see Cyborg Hookers within 50 years. They can be made to look like any woman you desire.

Didn't Harry Mudd in a Star Trek episode make a robot cyborg that looked just like his ex-wife… just so he could order it to shut up?

50 posted on 01/24/2014 7:52:17 PM PST by roadcat
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