What Jobs Will the Robots Take?

The Atlantic ^ | Jan 23 2014 | Derek Thompson

[Second Amendment First]

It is an invisible force that goes by many names. Computerization. Automation. Artificial intelligence. Technology. Innovation. And, everyone's favorite, ROBOTS.

Whatever name you prefer, some form of it has been stoking progress and killing jobs—from seamstresses to paralegals—for centuries. But this time is different: Nearly half of American jobs today could be automated in "a decade or two," according to a new paper by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, discussed recently in The Economist. The question is: Which half?

Another way of posing the same question is: Where do machines work better than people? Tractors are more powerful than farmers. Robotic arms are stronger and more tireless than assembly-line workers. But in the past 30 years, software and robots have thrived at replacing a particular kind of occupation: the average-wage, middle-skill, routine-heavy worker, especially in manufacturing and office admin.

Indeed, Frey and Osborne project that the next wave of computer progress will continue to shred human work where it already has: manufacturing, administrative support, retail, and transportation. Most remaining factory jobs are "likely to diminish over the next decades," they write. Cashiers, counter clerks, and telemarketers are similarly endangered. On the far right side of this graph, you can see the industry breakdown of the 47 percent of jobs they consider at "high risk."

[x]

Journalists.

And Prostitutes.

That's not redundant, is it?

[ClaytonP]

All of them.

The industrial revolution made man's bodies obsolete and uncompetitive in the economy.

We adapted by going into the "knowledge economy."

The AI revolution will make everyone's brains obsolete and uncompetitive in the economy.

[posterchild]

Journalists should be easy. So many articles seem formulaic with no meaningful questions asked.

[ifinnegan]

We have known, for decades now since the prophet Steve Martin told us, that robots are stealing our luggage.

[rightwingcrazy]

A viable socialist utopia requires robots to do our bidding. That is, until someone starts agitating for robot rights.

[cynwoody]

I expect to see robots doing police work at some point.

There are video surveillance systems augmented with AI that are said to be better at flagging intruders or other suspicious activity than human operators.

[freedomfiter2]

The robots could take the GOP leadership positions. All the robots would have to do is repeat everything they hear a Democrat say.

[beandog]

The robots will do the jobs illegal immigrants won’t do.

[Paladin2]

Software tasks are always easily able to overwhelm the hardware.

[TalBlack]

“Nearly half of American jobs today could be automated in “a decade or two,” “

Yeah, and apparently everyone expects these complex machines to materialize out of thin air and then work flawlessly forever after.

Nobody has to design them, build them, monitor them troubleshoot them, repair them or install them.

Can’t wait to se the behemoth that will replace me at my work of on-site monument inscribing and repair. I’ve speced it out in my head and believe me it’s a doozey.

[ully2]

Software programming.

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[Chode]

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[Sirius Lee]

The AI revolution will make everyone's brains obsolete and uncompetitive in the economy.

The iPhone has already replaced many people's brains.

[bgill]

Can I get one to pull weeds in the garden and do some housekeeping?

[VerySadAmerican]

Will a robot who does his job well flipping burgers ever get promoted to Robocop? And, will a Robocop shoot dogs?

[frithguild]

What Jobs Will the Robots Take?

The ones American's don't want to do

[RoosterRedux]

Robots will give a leg up to thinking humans...but they steal jobs from those humans unwilling to think.

[PJ-Comix]

Hookers. I definitely see Cyborg Hookers within 50 years. They can be made to look like any woman you desire.

[itsahoot]

Can’t wait to se the behemoth that will replace me at my work of on-site monument inscribing and repair. I’ve speced it out in my head and believe me it’s a doozey.

Sounds like something a robot the size of a vacuum cleaner could do.