Posted on 01/26/2014 5:28:08 AM PST by Kaslin
This week past, the Republican National Committee, ably led by its chairman, Wisconsin's Reince Priebus, put into effect reforms of the presidential nominating process that greatly simplify and shorten the primary season and, when combined with the two others reforms that are coming --an early convention in June or early July, and a coherent, purpose-driven debate system and schedule--will greatly enhance the prospects for a November win by the eventual GOP nominee.
The possible GOP field* is large, and it needs information now to plan campaigns then. Geraghty the Indisensable has more commentary, and Zeke Miller has additional details, but the new calendar is likely this:
The Iowa caucuses on Monday, February 1, 2016;
The New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, February 9, 2016;
The South Carolina primary on Tuesday, February 16, 2016;
and the Nevada caucuses on Tuesday, February 23.
Expect a new "Super Tuesday" on Tuesday March 1, as would-be early state players rush to attract all the money and attention left after South Carolina, but note the two week gap between South Carolina's voting and the expected new Super Tuesday. Suddenly the Palmetto State has a a lot of leverage as the winner of its 2016 brawl will have a fortnight of momentum on which to build headed into the day which is expected to be crowded with early primaries, all required by the RNC to divide their delegates proportionally.
Big states that want "winner-take-all"drama and "knock-out" potential (and dollars) should angle for Tuesday, March 15, which is the earliest such a contest can be held, and if Ohio wants clout (and maybe a leg up in the hunt of the convention) its GOP dominated legislature should move the primary to that day. I doubt Governor Kasich would object.
Whatever shakes out, the madness is out of the system, so all hail Reince. If he can pull an eight-to-ten debate schedule out of his hat --say, one the week after New Hampshire, and one the week after South Carolina, and the other six spaced from September of 2015 through January 2016 --with blackout days from Friday December 18 through the end of the year-- he may be carried around the eventual convention site of the convention hall by journalists who spent Christmas 2011 in Iowa and New Hampshire. (Cities wishing to bid for the early GOP 2016 convention must do so by the end of next month with a site selection recommendation coming from this group and a decision in August of this year.) With a rational calendar, the allure of early debates just isn't going to be there for most would-be presidents, but I don't think I'll have much trouble booking the field* when their media teams figure out that 94.5 Conservative Talk covers upstate South Carolina in a blaze of 100,000 wonder, while other affiliates like WJXY-FM 93.9/93.7 in Myrtle Beach cover the coast.
South Carolina is the real winner in all of this, but there is no big loser, which is why the Priebus-led diplomacy pays off big. It is a level playing field. It is a rational one as well, and the candidates who aspire to lead the party and eventually the nation have to nod in agreement that this makes sense.
Now if the selection committee would just hold on to the common sense theme and pick Cleveland with its new convention hall, excellent mass transit from outlying areas, and the expected trifecta of the 2o15 World Series, 2016 Super Bowl, and 2016 NBA Finals appearances of its three major professional franchises providing a tailwind to the convention that summer. (Columbus will counter, of course, that Urban nation will have triumphed in early 2016, and that is most likely right, but it is still 1 versus 3 in the momentum-generating events. And Columbus does not have a beautiful lake or the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.)
A very good week for the GOP indeed. If there had been such a meeting in January 2010, President Romney might well be clamping down sanctions harder on Iran and markets steadier under a budget accord negotiated by Vice President Ryan.
*The GOP Field (potential candidates who have declared, hinted, or been tipped as candidates, or for whom there is not insignificant acclaim from fervent supporters outside of their families and state): Amb. John Bolton, Gov. Jeb Bush, Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Ted Cruz, Gov. Mike Huckabee, Gov. Bobby Jindal, Gov. John Kasich, Rep. Peter King, Sen. Marco Rubio, Gov. Mike Pence, Sen. Rand Paul, Gov. Sarah Palin, Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Paul Ryan, Gov. Rick Snyder, Sen. John Thune, Gov. Scott Walker.
if Amnesty troll and K street idiot Hugh is for it then its bad news for us.
CLOSED PRIMARIES!!!!!
Personally, I find it ridiculous that the GOP panders to four states whose combined populations is only about 1/3 of a solid state like Texas.
I further find it destructive that one state is controlled by groups open to infiltration and influence by subsidies (e.g., crop and ethanol), another is famous for being contrarian, a third in a state that is overrun by Democrats, and the last having the idiocy to elect Lindsey Graham as a US Senator.
I can only conclude that the GOP is more intent on manipulating their choice for the candidate rather than letting a significant portion of the electorate make the choice.
I can guarantee one thing, if Ryan, Christie, King or Bush is on the ticket, I will be voting independent or leaving that line on my ballot blank.
so is this set up to help the wonderful Willard and Willard’s good buddies..Christie, Rubio, Huckabee ???
Conservatives and TEA Party need not apply...
I can only conclude that the GOP is more intent on manipulating their choice for the candidate rather than letting a significant portion of the electorate make the choice.
Look to the rules changes of the last convention. The ‘leading’ candidate will get to pick the delegates from ech state regardless of that stat’e convention or caucus.
They simply do not want anything to interfere with the kabuki theater that is the selection process.
BTW, does anybody Boener’s mention of Jeb Bush on Jay Leno’s show was spontainious?
Have they closed all Primaries yet?
We need to have every primary election on the same day. This ‘momentum” thing has lead to very weak overall candidates. All they have to do is to get Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina voters to go for them, the they can coast to the nomination.
The ‘leading’ candidate will get to pick the delegates from ech state regardless of that stat’e convention or caucus.
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Willard did that in 2012 because he was afraid of Governor Sarah Palin..
Couple that with Democrat and Media collusion to focus on propping up the weakest appeaser, and you have a loser like McCain, Romney et al. Disgusting.
The thinking is that at the national level a candidate must appeal to 51% of voters. That’s a broad spectrum. This is, overall, a good move. We’ve been hobbled by too many candidates. Take a look at the last election when conservatives lurched from one potential to another and fought each other.
The POTUS simply needs to be a Republican, even a GOPe. The President just needs to be center-right which every candidate in the last cycle was, including a RINO like Huntsman.
Where we really have an opportunity to elect conservatives is in the House and Senate. We need those two to be the most conservative possible. That’s where the real action is. A center-right POTUS will go along with a conservative Congress because he has to.
We need to concentrate on legislatures at the federal and state level. We need to control the election maps in every state we can. The road to victory is holding as many legislatures and center-right executives for a generation or two, just like liberals did over the last half century. We didn’t just get here in a single fell swoop.
Furthermore, we’re winning on abortion and gun control. The Constitution and liberty are winning propositions. Let’s not fret the details. The GOPe isn’t going to go quietly and they’re needed in the grand scheme of things.
No offense, but I stopped reading right there. I simply won't fall for that one more doggone bit. I've held my last nose.
All they have to do is to get Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina voters to go for them, the they can coast to the nomination.
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set up right there..
sweet for Willard...
he owns a house in New Hampshire where he can hang out for weeks schmoozing with the locals since he doesn’t work...
and Nevada is all wrapped up for him too..
there are lots of people of his own religion who voted lock step in Nevada..lots of organization going on early..
Iowa he spent a lot of time in last time..He can bus in his followers to the caucuses as he did before..
South Carolina went for McCain in 2008 and Newt in 2012..
he may not do well in that Conservative state in 2016 either...
people in SC have their eyes wide open..
a Palin or a Cruz could win there but not a Romney..
Aiken would remember how the Romney boys treated them in 2008 also..
Don’t be foolish. Even a McCain, Romney or a Dole would be much better than any Democrat, but you need a conservative House and the most conservative Senate you can get. If conservatives stay home we’ll end up worse off. It’s a continuum and we need to wean people off government.
You do realize that we’re up against every recipient of government largesse and they represent a formidable force. We’re never going to get the perfect candidate. There isn’t a Reagan on the horizon. The real game is legislative. That’s where we will win the fight and we’ll do it over time.
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Been through all your arguments before. I’m simply not interested in it anymore when the ‘winners’ stab you in the back any chance they get. I’m gonna do my networking and influence here at home at the local level, starting by ousting my GOP congressman, and work to not get a Chambliss Clone in the Senate, and then oust Isakson in 2016.
Here is the schedule for the 2014 Midterm Primary Elections.
Has Ben Carson ruled himself out? With the list presented he’d be able to get a lot of votes as the one non-politician, Bolton aside, but a Washington insider.
Even a McCain, Romney or a Dole
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or how about the other RINOs that your boy Willard has sworn to support..Christie, Huckabbe, Rubio etc
“This is a time for Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush, Mike Pence, John Kasich- a long list- Marco Rubio. There are a lot of folks who should have the chance to be our nominee and I’m going to support the one who gets the prize,’ he said.” (Willard Mitt Romney, Today Show, January 24, 2014)
(Please notice that Willard has NEVER included Sen Ted Cruz in his list)
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