Skip to comments.O’s woes will boost GOP in ’16
Posted on 01/26/2014 7:12:19 PM PST by Din Maker
The conventional wisdom in Washington was succinctly expressed in a recent Washington Post article, The GOPs Uphill Path to 270 in 2016. The Electoral College, claims Dan Balz, now gives the Democrats a decided advantage that will be hard for the GOP to overcome. He correctly noted that many formerly Republican-leaning states have shifted to the Democratic column.
On one level, Balz is correct. There has been a massive shift in the state-by-state leanings over the past two decades. From 1968 to 1988, the Republican presidential candidate carried an amazing 34 states five or more times. During that stretch, only Minnesota and Washington, D.C., were equally secure for the Democrats.
Things have looked entirely different over the past 20 years. Since 1992, 21 states went for the Democrats five times, while only 19 stayed in the GOP column that often. Importantly, the solid Democratic states now include big states like California, New York and Illinois.
The reason for the change, however, was not because of some magical transformation in particular states. It was a shift in the national mood.
During the 20 years of Republican dominance, the Democratic candidate reached 50 percent of the vote just once and fell as low as 38 percent. Over the past two decades, the GOP candidate has reached 50 percent of the vote just once and fell as low as 37 percent. The simple message is that if a candidate or party does better in the popular vote, the Electoral College will follow.
Look at it this way. President Barack Obama won the popular vote by four points in 2012. Consider what would happen if a Republican candidate were to win the popular vote in 2016 by a single point. The GOP would gain an average of five points per state. Applying that gain to the totals from our most recent election, the Republican would then have 266 Electoral College votes and four states would be toss-ups. If any one of the toss-ups broke for the GOP, the Republican would win.
Take it a step further. If a Republican were to win in 2016 by the same four-point margin that Obama enjoyed the last time around, you would expect the Republican to rack up about 331 Electoral College votes. Not surprisingly, thats virtually the same as Obamas total with a four-point popular vote victory.
Its obviously way too early to know who will be the Republican nominee in 2016. But we do have a good indicator of which way the popular vote might go. Perceptions of Obama will set the tone for the next election.
If his job approval ratings stay as low as they are today or drift lower it will be virtually impossible for any Democrat to win. Obama would be as much of a drag on his partys candidate as George W. Bush was in 2008.
If the presidents numbers rebound a bit but stay in the mid-40s range, it will be difficult but not impossible for a Democrat to win.
For the Democrats to be favored in 2016, Obamas job approval rating will have to soar dramatically over the next three years. Republicans who snicker at that prospect should not dismiss it. If the economy kicks into high gear and the health care law somehow becomes popular, the presidents numbers will indeed soar.
Barring that, however, Obamas weakness is likely to give any qualified GOP candidate the upper hand entering the 2016 election.
I’m thinking that once Obama is gone, the Black voter turn-out will be much less than it was in ‘08 and ‘12. What an opportunity for the GOP if they had a candidate with a Hispanic surname. Ted CRUZ comes to mind.
Unless the GOPe caves on amnesty, gay marriage or something
Congress, D and R, should boo him down when he steps up to the STU address to THREATEN them.
DANGEROUS DANGEROUS thinking. This was the conventional wisdom before 2012. And if Hillary runs, at least the same number of minorities will turn out, if not more.
This is so in the bubble thinking and gets us beat EVERY time.
A Dream, pure and simple.
So, what is the solution, RIghtwardHo?
I have said it before and I will say it again, I am an old man and do not think I will live long enough to see another Republican President.
Not if the GOP leadership has it’s way.
If the Reps pass an amnesty, there might not be a GOP in 2016.
Some how the illegal voting has to be stopped. In CT. there were so many votes that were double even triple votes + by one person in so many areas.
We need more control at the voting booths.
For the GOP to gain electoral votes beyond OH, FL and VA, there is going to have to be a game changer. Every electoral trend from 2009 through 2011 was in our favor. The country elected Republicans at every level of government in unprecedented ways. From conservative governors and Senators in solid blue states to state houses going Republican for the first time in over a century. 2012 showed the swing almost right back to where we were in 2008.
Why would a state that elects Scott Walker and strongly backs him in the recall, swing to a big Obama win? It seemed only logical we would pick up more ground in 2012...even if not a win, picking up more than IN and NC. FL and VA should have been solid wins. We should have made more inroads in midwestern states that had soured on Obama. Yet we didn’t.
If we see something different in 2016 what will cause the shift? Is the Obamacare disaster enough? Is the NSA a gamechanger, or is our party too committed to big government anti-terror to take advantage. Something has to change the trajectory other than Obama’s woes....either a movement leader capturing new interest or complete rejection of the Obama presidency in 2016 similar to the reaction to Bush after two years. I don’t know if we can build that kind of reaction without the aid of the media/entertainment without a really, really strong candidate. We shall see...if there was another presidential election today with a nameless Democrat and Republican, I am guessing we might have a chance, but not convinced. Add Hillary or Obama on the Dem ticket and almost anyone on our side today, and I’d say they still win. More work is needed to win back the White House.
Why would a state that elects Scott Walker and strongly backs him in the recall, swing to a big Obama win?
It’s called “a big Black voter turn out in the General Election that doesn’t vote any other time”.
“If the economy kicks into high gear and the health care law somehow becomes popular, the presidents numbers will indeed soar.”
The economy in high gear??? Health care law popular??? Nah.
But, the Dems could win through amnesty and cheating. And if things get real bad there’s always cancelled elections and martial law.
There’s still time for the GOPe to blow it.
oswoes - can we make that a keyword?
I’ll believe it when I see it.
My Faith in the American Electorate is at a low ebb. When Obama was Reelected, I knew the Republic was doomed.
Nothing since then has changed my viewpoint.
I’m not so old and feel the same way. The imbeciles are going to pass an immigration bill that will come out of conference as an amnesty bill. And that, as they say, will be that.
This is key. I don't understand the thinking of many conservatives that Hillary Benghazi is inevitable. The public will want something different after the Bush/Obama years and Hillary, with her record of corruption and failure, will not be what the public wants. But, let the GOP nominate another McCain or Romney then it gets dicier
You are correct sir. All those things could happen, and martial law could be declared, whether the rats win or lose.
Democrats start out with a rock solid guaranteed 240+ electoral votes before the first vote is cast, and Virginia and Florida, for presidential elections, are at best bluish purple.
Republicans need to pour resources into winnable down-ticket and state races and let the presidential “candidate” concentrate on fundraising events.
It isn't mood, but a political alignment. America is a center-left country.