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Os woes will boost GOP in 16
BostonHerald.com ^ | January 26, 2014 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 01/26/2014 7:12:19 PM PST by Din Maker

The conventional wisdom in Washington was succinctly expressed in a recent Washington Post article, “The GOP’s Uphill Path to 270 in 2016.” The Electoral College, claims Dan Balz, now gives the Democrats a decided advantage that will be hard for the GOP to overcome. He correctly noted that many formerly Republican-leaning states have shifted to the Democratic column.

On one level, Balz is correct. There has been a massive shift in the state-by-state leanings over the past two decades. From 1968 to 1988, the Republican presidential candidate carried an amazing 34 states five or more times. During that stretch, only Minnesota and Washington, D.C., were equally secure for the Democrats.

Things have looked entirely different over the past 20 years. Since 1992, 21 states went for the Democrats five times, while only 19 stayed in the GOP column that often. Importantly, the solid Democratic states now include big states like California, New York and Illinois.

The reason for the change, however, was not because of some magical transformation in particular states. It was a shift in the national mood.

During the 20 years of Republican dominance, the Democratic candidate reached 50 percent of the vote just once and fell as low as 38 percent. Over the past two decades, the GOP candidate has reached 50 percent of the vote just once and fell as low as 37 percent. The simple message is that if a candidate or party does better in the popular vote, the Electoral College will follow.

Look at it this way. President Barack Obama won the popular vote by four points in 2012. Consider what would happen if a Republican candidate were to win the popular vote in 2016 by a single point. The GOP would gain an average of five points per state. Applying that gain to the totals from our most recent election, the Republican would then have 266 Electoral College votes and four states would be toss-ups. If any one of the toss-ups broke for the GOP, the Republican would win.

Take it a step further. If a Republican were to win in 2016 by the same four-point margin that Obama enjoyed the last time around, you would expect the Republican to rack up about 331 Electoral College votes. Not surprisingly, that’s virtually the same as Obama’s total with a four-point popular vote victory.

It’s obviously way too early to know who will be the Republican nominee in 2016. But we do have a good indicator of which way the popular vote might go. Perceptions of Obama will set the tone for the next election.

If his job approval ratings stay as low as they are today — or drift lower — it will be virtually impossible for any Democrat to win. Obama would be as much of a drag on his party’s candidate as George W. Bush was in 2008.

If the president’s numbers rebound a bit but stay in the mid-40s range, it will be difficult but not impossible for a Democrat to win.

For the Democrats to be favored in 2016, Obama’s job approval rating will have to soar dramatically over the next three years. Republicans who snicker at that prospect should not dismiss it. If the economy kicks into high gear and the health care law somehow becomes popular, the president’s numbers will indeed soar.

Barring that, however, Obama’s weakness is likely to give any qualified GOP candidate the upper hand entering the 2016 election.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016; gop
Interesting coming from Scott Rasmussen.
1 posted on 01/26/2014 7:12:19 PM PST by Din Maker
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To: Din Maker

I’m thinking that once Obama is gone, the Black voter turn-out will be much less than it was in ‘08 and ‘12. What an opportunity for the GOP if they had a candidate with a Hispanic surname. Ted CRUZ comes to mind.


2 posted on 01/26/2014 7:13:48 PM PST by Din Maker
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To: Din Maker

Unless the GOPe caves on amnesty, gay marriage or something


3 posted on 01/26/2014 7:14:47 PM PST by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans!)
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To: Din Maker

Congress, D and R, should boo him down when he steps up to the STU address to THREATEN them.


4 posted on 01/26/2014 7:15:38 PM PST by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both.)
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To: Din Maker

DANGEROUS DANGEROUS thinking. This was the conventional wisdom before 2012. And if Hillary runs, at least the same number of minorities will turn out, if not more.

This is so in the bubble thinking and gets us beat EVERY time.


5 posted on 01/26/2014 7:19:24 PM PST by RIghtwardHo
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To: Din Maker
"Obama’s weakness is likely to give any qualified GOP candidate the upper hand entering the 2016 election."

A Dream, pure and simple.

6 posted on 01/26/2014 7:20:40 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: RIghtwardHo

So, what is the solution, RIghtwardHo?


7 posted on 01/26/2014 7:32:51 PM PST by Din Maker
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To: Din Maker

I have said it before and I will say it again, I am an old man and do not think I will live long enough to see another Republican President.


8 posted on 01/26/2014 7:33:53 PM PST by Tupelo (I am feeling more like Philip Nolan every day)
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To: Din Maker
Obama should be a huge drag at the polls for the dems in 2014 and 2016. The republicans have done very well at the state level the last few years, but the national party has an identity crisis, and currently only 25% of registered voters are republicans. The right pubbie could win in a landslide, but we seem to shoot ourselves in the foot nominating luke-warm nice guys.
9 posted on 01/26/2014 7:35:45 PM PST by CowboyJay (Cruz'-ing in 2016!)
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To: Din Maker

Not if the GOP leadership has it’s way.


10 posted on 01/26/2014 7:36:43 PM PST by Kozak ("Send them back your fierce defiance! Stamp upon the cursed alliance! To arms, to arms in Dixie!)
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To: Din Maker

If the Reps pass an amnesty, there might not be a GOP in 2016.


11 posted on 01/26/2014 7:39:32 PM PST by kabar
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To: RIghtwardHo

Some how the illegal voting has to be stopped. In CT. there were so many votes that were double even triple votes + by one person in so many areas.
We need more control at the voting booths.


12 posted on 01/26/2014 7:43:16 PM PST by mojo114 (Pray for our military)
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To: RIghtwardHo

For the GOP to gain electoral votes beyond OH, FL and VA, there is going to have to be a game changer. Every electoral trend from 2009 through 2011 was in our favor. The country elected Republicans at every level of government in unprecedented ways. From conservative governors and Senators in solid blue states to state houses going Republican for the first time in over a century. 2012 showed the swing almost right back to where we were in 2008.

Why would a state that elects Scott Walker and strongly backs him in the recall, swing to a big Obama win? It seemed only logical we would pick up more ground in 2012...even if not a win, picking up more than IN and NC. FL and VA should have been solid wins. We should have made more inroads in midwestern states that had soured on Obama. Yet we didn’t.

If we see something different in 2016 what will cause the shift? Is the Obamacare disaster enough? Is the NSA a gamechanger, or is our party too committed to big government anti-terror to take advantage. Something has to change the trajectory other than Obama’s woes....either a movement leader capturing new interest or complete rejection of the Obama presidency in 2016 similar to the reaction to Bush after two years. I don’t know if we can build that kind of reaction without the aid of the media/entertainment without a really, really strong candidate. We shall see...if there was another presidential election today with a nameless Democrat and Republican, I am guessing we might have a chance, but not convinced. Add Hillary or Obama on the Dem ticket and almost anyone on our side today, and I’d say they still win. More work is needed to win back the White House.


13 posted on 01/26/2014 7:48:37 PM PST by ilgipper (Obama is proving that very bad ideas can be wrapped up in pretty words)
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To: ilgipper

Why would a state that elects Scott Walker and strongly backs him in the recall, swing to a big Obama win?
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
It’s called “a big Black voter turn out in the General Election that doesn’t vote any other time”.


14 posted on 01/26/2014 8:00:37 PM PST by Din Maker
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To: Din Maker

“If the economy kicks into high gear and the health care law somehow becomes popular, the president’s numbers will indeed soar.”

The economy in high gear??? Health care law popular??? Nah.

But, the Dems could win through amnesty and cheating. And if things get real bad there’s always cancelled elections and martial law.


15 posted on 01/26/2014 8:27:43 PM PST by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est. New US economy: Fascism on top, Socialism on the bottom.)
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To: Din Maker

There’s still time for the GOPe to blow it.


16 posted on 01/26/2014 8:30:13 PM PST by 38special (For real, y'all.)
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To: Din Maker

oswoes - can we make that a keyword?


17 posted on 01/26/2014 8:44:41 PM PST by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)
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To: Din Maker

I’ll believe it when I see it.

My Faith in the American Electorate is at a low ebb. When Obama was Reelected, I knew the Republic was doomed.

Nothing since then has changed my viewpoint.


18 posted on 01/26/2014 8:49:55 PM PST by Kickass Conservative (Nobody owes you a living, so shut up and get back to work...)
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To: Din Maker
O’s woes will boost GOP in ’16...you can never overestimate the stupidity of the American voter....
19 posted on 01/26/2014 8:50:28 PM PST by Intolerant in NJ
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To: Tupelo

I’m not so old and feel the same way. The imbeciles are going to pass an immigration bill that will come out of conference as an amnesty bill. And that, as they say, will be that.


20 posted on 01/26/2014 9:51:53 PM PST by Trod Upon (Every penny given to film and TV media companies goes right into enemy coffers. Starve them out!)
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To: CowboyJay
You said...
“The right pubbie could win in a landslide,”

This is key. I don't understand the thinking of many conservatives that Hillary Benghazi is inevitable. The public will want something different after the Bush/Obama years and Hillary, with her record of corruption and failure, will not be what the public wants. But, let the GOP nominate another McCain or Romney then it gets dicier

21 posted on 01/26/2014 11:28:52 PM PST by LMAO ("Begging hands and Bleeding hearts will only cry out for more"...Anthem from Rush)
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To: grumpygresh
But, the Dems could win through amnesty and cheating. And if things get real bad there’s always cancelled elections and martial law.

You are correct sir. All those things could happen, and martial law could be declared, whether the rats win or lose.

22 posted on 01/27/2014 12:31:49 AM PST by Mark17 (Chicago Blackhawks: Stanley Cup champions 2010, 2013. Vietnam Vet 70-71 Msgt US Air Force, retired)
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To: Din Maker

Democrats start out with a rock solid guaranteed 240+ electoral votes before the first vote is cast, and Virginia and Florida, for presidential elections, are at best bluish purple.

Republicans need to pour resources into winnable down-ticket and state races and let the presidential “candidate” concentrate on fundraising events.


23 posted on 01/27/2014 1:30:32 AM PST by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
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To: Din Maker
"The reason for the change, however, was not because of some magical transformation in particular states. It was a shift in the national mood." AND demographics... AND the overall political alignment... AND the growing ranks of parasites.. AND the breakdown of morality...

It isn't mood, but a political alignment. America is a center-left country.

24 posted on 01/27/2014 1:36:45 AM PST by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
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