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US-China Rivalry More Dangerous Than Cold War?
The Diplomat ^ | 1/28/2014 | Zachary Keck

Posted on 01/30/2014 7:19:37 AM PST by mac_truck

The prominent realist international relations scholar John Mearsheimer says there is a greater possibility of the U.S. and China going to war in the future than there was of a Soviet-NATO general war during the Cold War.

Mearsheimer made the comments at a lunch hosted by the Center for the National Interest in Washington, DC on Monday. The lunch was held to discuss Mearsheimer’s recent article in The National Interest on U.S. foreign policy towards the Middle East. However, much of the conversation during the Q&A session focused on U.S. policy towards Asia amid China’s rise, a topic that Mearsheimer addresses in greater length in the updated edition of his classic treatise, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, which is due out this April.

In contrast to the Middle East, which he characterizes as posing little threat to the United States, Mearsheimer said that the U.S. will face a tremendous challenge in Asia should China continue to rise economically. The University of Chicago professor said that in such a scenario it is inevitable that the U.S. and China will engage in an intense strategic competition, much like the Soviet-American rivalry during the Cold War.

While stressing that he didn’t believe a shooting war between the U.S. and China is inevitable, Mearsheimer said that he believes a U.S.-China Cold War will be much less stable than the previous American-Soviet one. His reasoning was based on geography and its interaction with nuclear weapons.

(Excerpt) Read more at thediplomat.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; japan; korea; taiwan
Interesting analysis...
1 posted on 01/30/2014 7:19:37 AM PST by mac_truck
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To: mac_truck

Yep, they have to kill off millions of men who have no women to mate with due to abortion.
They have polluted half their water supply to the point you can’t drink water in half the country.
They need raw materials.
They have a people in the billions wanting more from government.

We are going to be at war for sure IMO.
Hope it is when there is no Obama to cower to them and hopefully we would have rebuilt some of the damage to our military and defense Obama has caused.

Our weakness emboldens our enemies.


2 posted on 01/30/2014 7:25:04 AM PST by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: mac_truck

What rivalry with China? The battle is right here - communists vs Americans (real Americans). Every administration and Congress since Clinton has been instrumental in China’s ascent...and America’s decline.


3 posted on 01/30/2014 7:25:33 AM PST by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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To: MichaelCorleone

Exactly. It’s the enemy within that’s the real problem.

China is nothing, compared to that.


4 posted on 01/30/2014 7:26:11 AM PST by dfwgator
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To: mac_truck

Very unlikely.
No rational company is going to wreck their best customer.
They may intimidate us into servitude with no shots fired, though.


5 posted on 01/30/2014 7:27:25 AM PST by nascarnation (I'm hiring Jack Palladino to investigate Baraq's golf scores.)
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To: MichaelCorleone

>>Congress since Clinton has been instrumental in China’s ascent...and America’s decline<<

BS.Too much credit to Clinton. US-Chinese romance dates to earlier 1970s.


6 posted on 01/30/2014 7:33:57 AM PST by cunning_fish
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To: nascarnation
No rational company is going to wreck their best customer.

Should read ' best paying customer' no?

How large a tab do you think the Chinese will let the US run before calling in their marker?

And if the US cannot pay its debt, maybe the price of doing business with big-C is staying out of regional conflicts in Asia.

7 posted on 01/30/2014 7:39:06 AM PST by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: mac_truck
"Since the U.S. does not want Japan or South Korea to build their own nuclear weapons, Washington would be hesitant to not come out decisively on the side of the Japanese in any war between Tokyo and Beijing."

Flawed premise-- the easiest solution for the US to the Japan-China problem or South Korea's predicament is for both countries to acquire a credible nuclear deterrent.

8 posted on 01/30/2014 7:43:03 AM PST by pierrem15 (Claudius: "Let all the poisons that lurk in the mud hatch out.")
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To: nascarnation

Many thought much the same before WWI. Nationalism is a much more potent political force than trade.


9 posted on 01/30/2014 7:44:17 AM PST by pierrem15 (Claudius: "Let all the poisons that lurk in the mud hatch out.")
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To: A CA Guy
"Yep, they have to kill off millions of men who have no women to mate with due to abortion.
They have polluted half their water supply to the point you can’t drink water in half the country.
They need raw materials.
They have a people in the billions wanting more from government.

We are going to be at war for sure IMO."


Sounds like US...

10 posted on 01/30/2014 7:44:35 AM PST by Dubh_Ghlase (Therefore, send not to know For whom the bell tolls, It tolls for thee.)
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To: mac_truck

China is welcome to cash in their chips at any time— the Federal Reserve will buy their Treasuries back with whatever amount of Federal Reserve Notes doing so requires.


11 posted on 01/30/2014 7:46:06 AM PST by pierrem15 (Claudius: "Let all the poisons that lurk in the mud hatch out.")
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To: MichaelCorleone

China doesn’t have to go to war with us - they have bought our politicians.


12 posted on 01/30/2014 7:56:35 AM PST by Little Ray (How did I end up in this hand-basket, and why is it getting so hot?)
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To: cunning_fish

“BS.Too much credit to Clinton. US-Chinese romance dates to earlier 1970s.”

Actually, I didn’t assign WJC any more or less blame than anyone else. What made you think I gave ‘too much credit’ to Clinton?

I agree it started in the 1970’s - I suppose you’re referring to Nixon opening the doors to China with a visit to Beijing. But the real damage began in the post-Reagan era, the way I see it.


13 posted on 01/30/2014 8:31:57 AM PST by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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To: cunning_fish; MichaelCorleone
China was granted status as a Most Favored Nation while Clinton was prez, but the final confirmation occurred after Bush became prez.

As the article points out, Mearsheimer is a foreign policy realist so the NeoCon republicans and interventionist dems may not agree with him.

The article is based on questions and answers after Mearsheimer's talk on the Mideast and Mearsheimer is very controversial on ME foreign policy. All realists tend to be controversial on ME policy but Mearsheimer is especially.

In the fall of 2007, he and Stephen Walt(another college professor realist) published their book: The Israeli Lobby and US Foreign Policy. The premise of the book is that US foreign policy is not always in the best interest of the US because the Israeli lobby(like AIPAC) in the US is very powerful.

And this has recently become a big issue, because of the Iranian negotiations. AIPAC pushed the NeoCon republicans and the Liberal Interventionist democrats in the Senate to write the legislation imposing additional sanctions on Iran. That seems to be losing steam now.

After that book was published in 2007, J Street was created in the spring of 2008. But as an Israeli lobby, J Street is always are at odds with AIPAC. J Street has grown strong and are passing out a lot of money now. So you have Senators Feinstein(D) and Corker(R) getting their Israeli money from J Street while Senators Kirk(R) and Menendez(D) are getting their Israeli money from AIPAC.

So you need to look at what the NeoCons and Liberal Interventionists are saying about China, not just what a realist like Mearsheimer is saying.

14 posted on 01/30/2014 8:37:45 AM PST by Ben Ficklin
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To: MichaelCorleone
The Chinese have had the inside track since Clinton took office. The kickbacks from the PRC via Lippo Bank were traced directly to the Loral Space deal.

When Algore ran for president, a group of “Buddhist Nuns” donated sequentially numbered cashiers checks, drawn on the Lippo Bank (an arm of the Red Chinese Army) to Algore’s campaign.

15 posted on 01/30/2014 8:38:21 AM PST by Eric in the Ozarks ("Say Not the Struggle Naught Availeth.")
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To: mac_truck

This war will be fought with bags of money under the table to key politicians in the US as well as other countries of interest like Taiwan, Panama, who knows where else.

China is buying up hard assets here in the US, farmlands and oil fields, keeping their ownership at about 33% to keep it under the radar. They just bought a major oilfield in Canada too.

When they make their moves in the Pacific, we will huff and puff and move aircraft carriers around the globe but we will not stop them. Actually, we are taking aircraft carriers out of service, just to make sure we aren’t tempted to do anything.

If they ever did decide to deliver a nuclear strike, they would probably use arab proxies so that we will take out our revenge against them while China buys up more oilfields and farmlands and occupies more Pacific islands unmolested.


16 posted on 01/30/2014 9:20:56 AM PST by marron
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To: mac_truck; dfwgator
China has absolutely no desire to have an armed conflict with the United States, nor anything else that would upset its reliance on US markets for its cheap manufactured goods. If the US imposed a trade embargo on China, China's economy would tank overnight. The Chinese "Communists" like money and capitalism too much to allow that to happen.

If it seems as though China is eclipsing the US in key areas, that has more to do with America's economic and political decline (and the Chinese filling the void) than any aggressive moves on the part of China. For instance: China has contracts in Africa where in return for building roads, their firms get mining rights, because China knows they need alternative sources of Rare Earths and other metals/minerals. Where are American firms making the same offer?

17 posted on 01/30/2014 10:47:11 AM PST by ek_hornbeck
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To: mac_truck
"In contrast to the Middle East, which he characterizes as posing little threat to the United States,"

Glad someone with brains doesn't think the threat is Iran.

18 posted on 01/30/2014 10:57:21 AM PST by ex-snook (God is Love)
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To: ex-snook
Glad someone with brains doesn't think the threat is Iran.

It isn't Iran that's destroying America. Nor is it China. Leftist ideology, multiculturalism and third world immigration are the greatest threats to this country.

19 posted on 01/30/2014 12:09:57 PM PST by ek_hornbeck
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To: mac_truck

I suspect that the war will largely be a war fought through trade domination and dogfights for control of global economies. China’s military spending is still a small fraction of ours and their military goals, at least as of now, seem to be predominantly centered around influence in the South Pacific and nearby areas.

That said, they could be looking to attack us and wage war on us with weapons way more dangerous than guns or bombs of any kind.


20 posted on 01/30/2014 5:14:06 PM PST by freedom462
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To: mac_truck

And, sadly, I think the way things are progressing this will undoubtedly be the China century.


21 posted on 01/30/2014 5:16:30 PM PST by freedom462
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To: freedom462

It will be interesting to see whether Japan steps into a leadership role and rallies the other Asian nations impacted by an emerging Chinese hegemony. I think the US should encourage this.


22 posted on 01/30/2014 6:10:20 PM PST by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: mac_truck

Why would they? Wouldn’t that also mean for japan to be effective, they would need to build up their military power as well and start finally getting into the Navy power game? And if so, why would the US tolerate that, given, that it was still well under a century ago that a militarily influential Japan set out to eradicate much of humanity.


23 posted on 01/30/2014 6:18:40 PM PST by freedom462
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To: ek_hornbeck

>>>China has absolutely no desire to have an armed conflict with the United States, nor anything else that would upset its reliance on US markets for its cheap manufactured goods. If the US imposed a trade embargo on China, China’s economy would tank overnight. The Chinese “Communists” like money and capitalism too much to allow that to happen.<<<

Amen. It is absolutely true by now.
I have no idea if it is to be true in a couple decades.


24 posted on 01/30/2014 10:07:56 PM PST by cunning_fish
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To: freedom462
Wouldn’t that also mean for japan to be effective, they would need to build up their military power as well and start finally getting into the Navy power game?

In a word yes, which is what the current Japanese administration is signaling they would like to do. This will eventually require Japan to alter their pacifist constitution, but they're already taking steps in that direction.

25 posted on 01/31/2014 5:14:56 AM PST by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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