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Louisiana Senate: Cassidy (R) 44%, Landrieu (D) 40%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | January 30, 2014

Posted on 02/01/2014 11:45:09 AM PST by Clintonfatigued

Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu runs slightly behind Republican challenger Bill Cassidy in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Louisiana.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Louisiana Voters finds Cassidy, a U.S. congressman, with 44% support to Landrieu’s 40%. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate in the race, while 11% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Louisiana
KEYWORDS: billcassidy; cassidy; landrieu; louisiana; marylandrieu; polls; rasmussen

1 posted on 02/01/2014 11:45:09 AM PST by Clintonfatigued
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To: fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; GOPsterinMA; randita; Sun; LdSentinal; ExTexasRedhead; ...

This looks promising. I look forward to other polls confirming these findings.


2 posted on 02/01/2014 11:46:13 AM PST by Clintonfatigued (The War on Drugs is Big Government statism)
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To: Clintonfatigued

It’s very promising. Any candidate needs 50% to win outright. I just wish Rob Maness was doing better.


3 posted on 02/01/2014 11:47:19 AM PST by Viennacon
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To: Clintonfatigued

Margin of Error for this sample is 4.5% (MOE)


4 posted on 02/01/2014 11:50:06 AM PST by truth_seeker (Nissan)
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To: Clintonfatigued

The same poll also shows state Rep. Paul Hollis is tied 42%-42% with Landrieu at this point, even though 40% don’t know who Hollis is.


5 posted on 02/01/2014 11:51:46 AM PST by Plummz (pro-constitution, anti-corruption)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Louisiana Candidates

U.S. SENATOR:

Mary Landrieu (D)* - (Campaign Site)
Don Reaux (D) - Electrical Engineer & '80/'04 Presidential Candidate
Bill Cassidy (R) - Congressman, Ex-State Sen. & Physician
Paul Hollis (R) - State Rep., Businessman & Numismatist

Jeff Landry (R) - Ex-Congressman & Attorney

Rob Maness (R) - Retired USAF Officer
Brannon McMorris (Libertarian) - Electrical Engineer

Interesting to see how many actually make the race.

Filing is Aug. 22, 2014,
Primary Nov. 4, 2014,
runoff if needed Dec. 6, 2014.

6 posted on 02/01/2014 12:06:33 PM PST by deport
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To: deport

Some info on Campaign finances for the LA Senate Race.

http://www.theadvertiser.com/article/20140131/NEWS01/301310021/Landrieu-leads-Senate-candidates-funds


7 posted on 02/01/2014 12:49:47 PM PST by deport
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To: Clintonfatigued

I find this very good, in the face of television adverts from a subversive organization named “senatemajoritypac” running nothing but lies about Cassidy, all over USANetwork, and I’m sure others, here in Louisiana.

According to a story by “Daddy” Landrieu, in “The Caucus”, he is still pulling political strings to make sure that ‘the blonde from the chocolate city’ Mary Landrieu gets her re-election, and a certain Mr. Carville is mentioned, as well.

Good ol’ Mary took a $300 million dollar bribe, “for the State of LA, of course”, in treturn for her yes vote on Obamacare.


8 posted on 02/01/2014 12:59:25 PM PST by Terry L Smith
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To: Viennacon
It’s very promising. Any candidate needs 50% to win outright. I just wish Rob Maness was doing better.

Worth reading

To summarize, since the late 1980s its been accepted conventional wisdom that an incumbent polling below 50% near election day is going to lose; that they haven't made the case for their reelection and the undecided votes will end up breaking in favor of the challenger.

The article deconstructs this CW quite a bit, with a helping hand from Nate Silver (ok FRiends, contain your groans and jeers, please). Here's what the article says:

Indeed, Silver's earlier data suggests that the "incumbent rule" is viable even earlier in the cycle than today. In April, he compiled a lengthy list of incumbents' polling data from January to June of 2006, 2008 and 2009. These polls showed that a third of incumbents who polled below 50 percent in polls even at this early time in the cycle went on to lose in the fall, while nearly 2/3 of those below 45 percent lost in November. Only one of the incumbents who was above 50 percent lost: George Allen.

So, basically, even by Nate Silver's standards Moon's little girl is in deep, deep doo-doo. The question is whether Dems will try to pull a Torricelli bait/switch and yank her from the ticket at the last minute and replace with someone who might have a better chance. But is there any Dem in LA at this point who would?
9 posted on 02/01/2014 12:59:32 PM PST by tanknetter
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To: deport

The Libertarian candidate is a flake. All you need to do to get on the ballot in Louisiana is put up $900. But he’s insisting on doing it the hard way, by gathering x signatures from each CD. He won’t even make the ballot.


10 posted on 02/01/2014 1:05:41 PM PST by Plummz (pro-constitution, anti-corruption)
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To: Plummz

The Libertarian candidate is a flake.

***************

I don’t know a thing about him but if helps to take a few votes that keeps Landrieu
nder 50% and into a runoff then that is a positive, imo.


11 posted on 02/01/2014 2:05:31 PM PST by deport
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To: Clintonfatigued

Boom. Cassidy needs more commercials of Landrieu supporting Obamacare


12 posted on 02/01/2014 2:10:26 PM PST by stuck_in_new_orleans
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To: Clintonfatigued

Rasmussens has been horrible for two straight cycles now. I am not feeling good about this one ... for now. Still very early.


13 posted on 02/01/2014 2:18:49 PM PST by RIghtwardHo
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To: Clintonfatigued

Jeff Landry needs to get in. Cassidy is an establishment RINO.


14 posted on 02/01/2014 3:17:33 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: tanknetter; Viennacon; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; randita; Galactic Overlord-In-Chief; ...
The question is whether Dems will try to pull a Torricelli bait/switch and yank her from the ticket at the last minute and replace with someone who might have a better chance. But is there any Dem in LA at this point who would?

I would say no, there is not.

15 posted on 02/01/2014 4:58:51 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Terry L Smith
I find this very good, in the face of television adverts from a subversive organization named “senatemajoritypac” running nothing but lies about Cassidy, all over USANetwork, and I’m sure others, here in Louisiana.

“senatemajoritypac”? A Rovian org?

16 posted on 02/01/2014 5:09:17 PM PST by COBOL2Java (I'm a Christian, pro-life, pro-gun, Reaganite. The GOP hates me. Why should I vote for them?)
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To: COBOL2Java

Dear Coboltojava,
Rovian? No way. They make a stink about shutting down the government. They make a stink on cutting food stamps. They put the stink on Republicans, period.

Here is their fishwrap website:

http://www.senatemajority.com/


17 posted on 02/01/2014 7:10:52 PM PST by Terry L Smith
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To: Viennacon

Rob Maness is my guy.


18 posted on 02/01/2014 7:38:22 PM PST by murron (Proud Mom of a Marine Vet)
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To: Clintonfatigued

“This looks promising. “

It sure does!


19 posted on 02/01/2014 10:50:12 PM PST by Sun (Pray that God sends us good leaders. Please say a prayer now.)
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To: Terry L Smith

Thanks! Just wondering. Can’t trust Tokyo Rove.


20 posted on 02/02/2014 5:11:43 AM PST by COBOL2Java (I'm a Christian, pro-life, pro-gun, Reaganite. The GOP hates me. Why should I vote for them?)
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To: deport

A Libertarian candidate won’t be needed to keep Landrieu under 50% in the November general (even as she tries to run away from Obama), but he just might help keep Cassidy under 50% and give Landrieu a second bite at the apple in a December runoff (where God knows what will happen). We should try to kill off Landrieu in November—she’s had too many lives as it is. And while I agree that a December runoff should have a lower turnout and, on paper, should help the GOP, that didn’t occur in 2002, when not only did Landrieu survive but she swept in then-Democrat Rodney Alexander in a heavily Republican congressional district.


21 posted on 02/03/2014 6:42:27 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Don’t get too enthused about this.
Mary won the senate race because she won Orleans parrish.
That is the only parrish she won. Woody Jenkins won the other 53 and lost the race.


22 posted on 02/03/2014 6:46:05 AM PST by Texas resident
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To: Impy; tanknetter; Viennacon; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; randita; ...

Somewhat related to the Cassidy-Landrieu Senate race: black conservative Republican Dr. Charles “Trey” Thomas has entered the LA-06 race to replace Cassidy. See http://thehayride.com/2014/01/another-first-time-candidate-enters-the-6th-district-race/ and http://www.charlestreythomas.com/. Dr. Thomas is a 34-year-old former LSU football player, educator, businessman and Executive Director of Family Values Resource Institute.

According to the article from The Hayride from the first paragraph of this post, the frontrunner seems to be 28-year-old technology entrepreneur Paul Dietzel, whose grandfather was the LSU football coach, so Dr. Thomas is neither the youngest Republican candidate nor the one with the strongest link to LSU football. I know very little about these two candidates (or the others who also have announced), but I am a bit concerned that Dietzel appears to have been adopted by Paulistinians from Texas—of course, the fact that Paulbots like a candidate doesn’t make such candidate a Paultard, but when someone without a political record bursts into the scene and is supported by the L. Ron Paul cult it certainly should be scrutinized to ensure that the candidate himself isn’t a cult member.

Given the large number of candidates with no obvious superstar, I think it’s almost certain that no one will get 50%+1 in the November general and thus the top two vote-getters will proceed to a December run-off. If one Republican and one Democrat make the run-off, the Republican would be guaranteed victory in what now is the second most Republican district in the state (black parts of Baton Rouge were appended to the New Orleans-based LA-02 in 2012 redistricting). But perhaps two Republicans will make the run-off, in which case it will be very interesting how it turns out. A Dietzel-Thomas run-off would get national attention, although if Landrieu manages to keep Cassidy under 50% in the first round and forces a Senate run-off it will overshadow the House race.

BTW, there is a third possible scenario; given that exactly two Democrats have filed to run in the LA-06, it is mathematically possible for the two to get around 15% each while the six Republicans running split the remaining 70% by each getting 14%, thus resulting in the two Democrats going to the run-off. This would be the mirror image of what the GOP managed to do in CA-31 in 2012, where two Republicans split 40% and finished one-two, thus making the run-off. in the jungle primary. But I think that it is highly unlikely that such scenario could be replicated in LA-06, since two largely unknown Democrats would be lucky to get a combined 30% in the first round, and it would be extremely unlikely for the 70% Republican vote to be split exactly equally among five candidates. Of course, the filing deadline isn’t until August 22, and if several additional Republicans jump in (Tony Perkins may be considering a run, and other names have been mentioned), who the heck knows what will happen?


23 posted on 02/03/2014 7:21:22 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
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To: Texas resident; Clintonfatigued

“Mary won the senate race because she won Orleans parrish.
That is the only parrish she won. Woody Jenkins won the other 53 and lost the race.”


You are WAY off in your recollection. Landrieu won *25* parishes in the run-off against Jenkins in 1996:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1996&fips=22&f=1&off=3&elect=0&class=2

Democrat cheating in New Orleans accounted for Landrieu’s 5,800 margin of victory (and then some), but is no true that Landrieu or anyone else could win statewide merely by getting a big margin in New Orleans.

Oh, and there are 64, not 53, parishes in LA.


24 posted on 02/03/2014 7:28:01 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; Texas resident; Clintonfatigued; Viennacon; fieldmarshaldj; BillyBoy

Yeah

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=169

Anyway since I’ve seen some Freepers say “Cassidy sucks” and “Maness is the conservative choice” I’d like to remind them of the jungle primary system.

Manses is waaaaaaaaaaaaay behind in this race. He is not gonna not place first or second. So the best outcome for us is for Cassidy to win in November and avoid a lower turnout runoff where hijinks would be conceivable.


25 posted on 02/03/2014 7:46:06 AM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

And since then, the Landrieus have developed a stron Democrat machine in Shreveport as well.


26 posted on 02/03/2014 7:47:01 AM PST by Plummz (pro-constitution, anti-corruption)
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To: Plummz

Because all the families and Republicans moved to Bossier


27 posted on 02/03/2014 7:51:48 AM PST by stuck_in_new_orleans
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To: Impy

My map was better because it showed Landrieu parishes in Communist red. : )


28 posted on 02/03/2014 8:07:23 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Definitely better in that way.

OTOH “Our campaigns” lets you scroll over the counties/parishes and see the margins. You have to pay Leip to do that for races before the year 2000. ;d


29 posted on 02/03/2014 8:14:22 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy

Well, I pay Leip for that benefit (one of only two websites to which I pay money to access premium service, the other being baseball-reference.com), so it’s a no-brainer for me to go there.


30 posted on 02/03/2014 8:26:09 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj

“Our campaigns” used to let you look up county and go back and see how it voted in every race they have date on sometimes going back VERY far. But I was told it was taking up too much space on the website so they deleted those county containers.

Both Leip’s Forums and Our Campaigns sadly seem to have a mostly libs post comments (Leip’s user endorsements maps skew heavily rat).


31 posted on 02/03/2014 8:38:00 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy

I haven’t bothered with posting comments on OurCampaigns in a long time. When I first registered, they thought I was some retread troll and savagely attacked me. Only when one of the DUmmies checked my IP address did they confirm I wasn’t. I have to admit OC is a very difficult and slow site to navigate. I’d start my own site if I could, with the proper color scheme.


32 posted on 02/03/2014 9:12:41 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Yeah I remember you telling me that, I understand this troll had been bothering them a lot but they were needlessly rude jagholes to you.

It can be slow and is hard to navigate yes. It used to be very slow for me most of the time. I think it got better when they deleted some of that data but I miss those county containers. You could click on say Queens County NY and see how they voted in every race going way back. The info is still there but you’d have to find every race individually.


33 posted on 02/04/2014 8:47:19 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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