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On Immigration, What Are the Republicans Thinking?
Real Clear Politics ^ | January 31, 2014 | Sean Trende

Posted on 02/02/2014 12:14:46 PM PST by fifedom

The GOP has announced that it will pursue an immigration reform bill later this year. This surprised most observers. Why would the party entertain a civil war when everything seems to be going well for it?

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: aliens; amnesty; boehner; rino; teaparty
Here is what the OP author, Trende, thinks. He favors alternative #5:
1) They are worried about the Hispanic vote.
the smarter play for Republicans here seems to be to wait until 2015 to act on a bill. After all, Republican chances for taking the Senate this year are very good if the dynamic doesn’t change. So if they can effectively lay low between now and Election Day and somehow avoid angering Independents or inflaming divisions between establishment and insurgent Republicans, they would have much greater influence over the direction of the bill in the second half of Obama’s term.
2) The Chamber of Commerce wants it.
This theory is very popular, especially among Tea Party sorts. (But) The Chamber of Commerce has wanted legislation for a very, very long time. A bill passed the Senate last summer. If the GOP was going to pass that measure to appease its corporate supporters, the smart play again would have been to get it over with early on.
3) It’s a trap for Democrats
Republicans plan on discarding the pathway to citizenship in favor of a pathway to legalization. (They) are threatening to refuse to allow any House bill to go to conference, forcing the Senate to either take it or leave it. What if the Democrats opt to “take it”? The (RAT) base knows that fights over citizenship will follow, and many believe that the GOP will eventually cave on that as well. It’s a recipe for disaster.
4) This is a PR push.
The idea would be that they would pass something with some sort of “poison pill” in it that Democrats wouldn’t swallow. But you still encounter the problem that Democrats might decide there’s no such thing as a poison pill here, within reason, and figure that they can fix any further issues with the immigration system further down the line, and call Republicans’ bluff by passing whatever comes out of the House.
5) Republicans (GOPe) are afraid of winning.
The GOPe figure the House is safe and they would rather lose control of the Senate than let in some more Mike Lee's and Ted Cruz's.
1 posted on 02/02/2014 12:14:46 PM PST by fifedom
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To: fifedom; All
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2 posted on 02/02/2014 12:16:52 PM PST by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: fifedom

There is no cure for stupid, except voting it OUT!


3 posted on 02/02/2014 12:18:02 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!!)
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To: fifedom

Here’s what they are thinking...

“If we make a bunch of people who broke the law become citizens, then all hispanics will LIKE us”!!!

Good luck with that.


4 posted on 02/02/2014 12:21:11 PM PST by R0CK3T
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To: fifedom

They’re not called the stupid party for no reason.


5 posted on 02/02/2014 12:23:52 PM PST by wny
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To: fifedom

Republicans don’t think, they just cave.


6 posted on 02/02/2014 12:24:26 PM PST by mulligan
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To: fifedom

The GOP will be dead if they pass amnesty. And a true Tea Party will
emerge from it’s ashes.


7 posted on 02/02/2014 12:27:25 PM PST by tennmountainman (Just Say No To Obamacare)
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To: fifedom

#4 is what I read. I don’t like it either but they have to look like they tried to do something.


8 posted on 02/02/2014 12:28:18 PM PST by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.....https://twitter.com/kracker0)
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To: fifedom

They want to be rid of the need to make concessions to conservatives they view as “embarrassing” as defined by the media, knowing that together with moderates afraid of Democrats, enough of us will vote for them to keep them in power with which to hand out favors to their financial backers.


9 posted on 02/02/2014 12:29:28 PM PST by Carry_Okie (0-Care IS Medicaid; they'll pull a sheet over your head and take everything you own to pay for it.)
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To: musicman

they believe evrything the libtard mmedia tells them.....FORGET ABOUT THE 70% OF THE AMERICAN CITIZEN THAT WANTS STRONG BORDER SECURITY AND NO AMNESTY....their gullible morons


10 posted on 02/02/2014 12:30:35 PM PST by Doogle (USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: fifedom
On Immigration, What Are the Republicans Thinking?

They are thinking that "you", whether you take that to mean Christian Conservative or non-Hispanic white, did not produce enough future voters to make Conservative candidates relevant. And unless something changes drastically and soon, they're right.

11 posted on 02/02/2014 12:33:49 PM PST by TwelveOfTwenty (See my home page for some of my answers to the left's talking points.)
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To: musicman

Praise God you’re here!


12 posted on 02/02/2014 12:33:56 PM PST by onyx (Please Support Free Republic - Donate Monthly! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, Let Me know!)
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To: fifedom

How about a variation of #5? Maybe the Republicans fear they’ll win, and then the minority of Republican amnesty supporters won’t be able to join with Democrats to pass amnesty. Maybe they see this as a last chance, in their political careers, to do an amnesty cram down on the American people.


13 posted on 02/02/2014 12:35:23 PM PST by CitizenUSA (Sodomy and abortion: the only constitutional rights cherished by Democrats.)
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To: fifedom
Some might say the US congress, the president and the Wall Street banksters all work for the NWO elites and are all working toward the creation of a North American Union (NAU. Hence, the dilution of the American middle class with folks who think they still own the land we call the US is one of the necessary components if the NWO’s goal of a NAU is to be completed. Remember GH Bush's words when he spoke of the NWO, they will succeed! Sad to say and no thanks to the Repubican party, the NWO elites clearly have this country by the nadds.
14 posted on 02/02/2014 12:35:39 PM PST by drypowder
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To: fifedom

Paul Ryan said the legislation is in trouble. It would be remarkable for the House to pass a bill that would be reconciled in conference with the Senate. Senator Menendez, the Democratic fornicator from New Jersey has said that the conference will be hijacked by pro amnesty people and through parliamentary maneuvers will not need a second vote in the House. However it would seem that there will be no chance for any immigration bill passing in the next Congress if as expected more rock solid conservatives are elected.


15 posted on 02/02/2014 12:36:00 PM PST by allendale
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To: onyx

(I’m tryin’!!)


16 posted on 02/02/2014 12:38:55 PM PST by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: fifedom
I don't think the Democrats actually care about passing the bill. They just want to have immigration as an issue to get their base riled up at the Republicans over.

Sure, amnesty would mean more legal Democratic voters, but the Democrats don't care if a vote is cast legally as long as it cast for a Democrat.

17 posted on 02/02/2014 12:40:37 PM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: fifedom

I go with option #5 which supports the position that the GOPe truly wants conservatives to leave and form 3rd party giving them a strong #2 position to fight for scraps at the table of their socialist overlords.


18 posted on 02/02/2014 12:41:44 PM PST by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: mulligan

“Republicans don’t think, they just cave.”

I think it’s a mistake to underestimate the GOPe. They DO think, and that is why they cave. They aren’t irrational. I’m sure they know they aren’t really going to win over Hispanics, so there has to be some other logical reason. It’s also possible they believe what they say. Some of them clearly seem convinced an amnesty is going to help the economy. We can disagree on that, but they definitely have known or unknown reasons for doing what they do.

BTW, I bet they also know an amnesty might very well cost some of them their jobs, but I also bet they aren’t worried about that. Have you ever heard of a politician starving after leaving office? No. They’ll be taken care of regardless.

I think they know the Tea Party cavalry is coming, so they want to act now while they can.


19 posted on 02/02/2014 12:43:20 PM PST by CitizenUSA (Sodomy and abortion: the only constitutional rights cherished by Democrats.)
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To: musicman

Bonehead bends over so much that Bawney still sends him Valentine cards.

The GOP is dead, dead, dead.

Save your money for the upcoming CW-II.


20 posted on 02/02/2014 12:47:16 PM PST by Da Coyote
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To: musicman

I know!
God bless and keep you.


21 posted on 02/02/2014 12:49:38 PM PST by onyx (Please Support Free Republic - Donate Monthly! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, Let Me know!)
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To: fifedom
It's 2). The Chamber of Commerce (big business) wants it. And they are worried that if the Republicans/Tea Party wins big in 2014, they won't have enough Dem votes left to pass it.

So, pass it now primarily with Dem votes, and kill the chances for a big Republican win in 2014, thus cementing the win for another 2 years, which means forever.

Boehner, McConnell and big business all want to avoid having too many Tea Party types in congress who might actually force them to do anything conservative. Boehner and McConnell's jobs are only to preserve enough of a cutout in the socialist program to allow (certain) big business to have big profits.

I noticed Braveheart on TV last night, and the plot around the perfidious Scottish barons strikes a familiar note.

22 posted on 02/02/2014 12:51:57 PM PST by slowhandluke (It's hard to be cynical enough in this age.)
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To: R0CK3T
“If we make a bunch of people who broke the law become citizens, then all hispanics will LIKE us”!!!

Generally, the South Of the Border crowd does not like, respect nor trust the Republicans. Frankly, if I were a S.O.B. person, I would be inclined not to respect a country's laws that does not care about enforcing immigration laws and protecting its citizens.

The Republican party is likely to get more respect by protecting the border, and our sovereignty from invaders.

23 posted on 02/02/2014 12:53:44 PM PST by VRW Conspirator ( 2+2 = V)
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To: CitizenUSA
How about a variation of #5? Maybe the Republicans fear they’ll win, and then the minority of Republican amnesty supporters won’t be able to join with Democrats to pass amnesty. Maybe they see this as a last chance, in their political careers, to do an amnesty cram down on the American people.

That's my suspicion. The liberal repubs want the Dems to share the blame on this, so both groups can play the old finger-pointing game. They don't want to go it alone and their window of opportunity is sliding closed.

24 posted on 02/02/2014 12:56:45 PM PST by Charles Martel (Endeavor to persevere...)
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To: mulligan

BTW, there’s precedent back when the Democrats lost the House. Remember that lame duck session when they were passing everything possible with GOPe votes before it was too late? We know some of our guys can’t wait to pass amnesty. Maybe they see what’s coming, a tidal wave of pissed off voters, and want to act while they still can.


25 posted on 02/02/2014 12:57:00 PM PST by CitizenUSA (Sodomy and abortion: the only constitutional rights cherished by Democrats.)
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To: drypowder
the NWO elites and are all working toward the creation of a North American Union (NAU

Regardless of the reasons though, a Party that would rather see the enemy take the prize instead of one of their own just because he believes in a much stronger version of the same thing, deserves to be torn apart as a waste of space.

26 posted on 02/02/2014 12:58:35 PM PST by HeartlandOfAmerica (GOP = Gathering of Pussies!)
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To: HeartlandOfAmerica

Oh. BTW the part that I quoted above is my personal belief for why they want it.


27 posted on 02/02/2014 1:01:03 PM PST by HeartlandOfAmerica (GOP = Gathering of Pussies!)
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To: fifedom

Attempt to manufacture a new base as they have alienated their old base.

Will fail.


28 posted on 02/02/2014 1:06:25 PM PST by chris37 (Heartless.)
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To: fifedom

Here’s what they are thinking:

Conservatives are a minority in the party and need to be beaten down.

The GOPe is under pressure from big donors who want the cheap and willing labor. There is a case to be made that Mexican laborers are easier to handle and work harder than spoiled Americans.

This isn’t new, it’s been the case with immigrants for a century.


29 posted on 02/02/2014 1:09:38 PM PST by SaxxonWoods (....Let It Burn...)
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To: SaxxonWoods
Maybe it's time to let the Mexicans in on the elitist s grand plan. They're going to have to pay for unemployed Americans health care, Section 8 housing, food stamps, energy costs, free cell phones, etc. By coming here and taking the few jobs we have left, they'll have to support the new American couch potato (and the old ones, too).
30 posted on 02/02/2014 1:13:50 PM PST by liberalh8ter (The only difference between flash mob 'urban yutes' and U.S. politicians is the hoodies.)
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To: CitizenUSA

Take a look at the farm bill and you will understand what motivates the GOP insiders.


31 posted on 02/02/2014 1:15:03 PM PST by Eva
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To: Eva

I would love to know who was for and who against Amnesty during this retreat.

Hope there was a vote on it and the vote is leaked out by someone. I would like to know the idiots who support Boner.


32 posted on 02/02/2014 1:33:26 PM PST by Zenjitsuman (New Boss Nancy Pelosi)
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To: tennmountainman

> The GOP will be dead if they pass amnesty. And a true Tea Party will
emerge from it’s ashes.

And every RINO will br removed from office and replaced with candidates that represent the will of The Peopla and rightly so.


33 posted on 02/02/2014 1:49:45 PM PST by jsanders2001
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To: fifedom

If the Republicans were smart, they would also add that from now on immigrant babies born on USA soil are no longer immediate American Citizens.

That should stop the anchor baby illegals wanting to come here....


34 posted on 02/02/2014 1:50:31 PM PST by Engedi
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To: CitizenUSA

I heard on the radio the other day that if Republicans don’t pass an immigration bill Obama will do an EO and make illegals legal..and if he does, well, he knows the Republicans won’t do a thing about it...


35 posted on 02/02/2014 1:52:42 PM PST by Engedi
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To: Jim Robinson

Instead of giving tuition subsidies (TAX DOLLARS) to ILLEGALS to go to College, HEY RINOS, Why not use those scarce funds to help both our vets and over-50 US citizens get/stay healthy, retrain, continue contributing LEGALLY to the economy?

WHY ARE WE FUNDING ILLEGALS — WHEN OUR OWN ‘SEASONED’ U.S. CITIZENS NEED CONSTANT RETRAINING & HEALTH SERVICES TO REMAIN COMPETITIVE, PRODUCTIVE AND PROSPEROUS!!!!

Cut the nonsense, Keep AMERICA strong! It’s our education & health care Money, not “The World’s”!!!!


36 posted on 02/02/2014 2:13:09 PM PST by 4Liberty (Optimal institutions - optimal economy.)
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To: fifedom

Ca$h > principles. It’s that simple.


37 posted on 02/02/2014 2:23:27 PM PST by VRWC For Truth (Roberts has perverted the Constitution)
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To: fifedom
Ahhhh -- they're NOT??

Oh YES, Mr. Obama, since the country isn't going down the crapper fast enough, let us help you add 11 to 20 MILLION new DemonRAT voters to the rolls. Thank you, sir, may we have another?

 photo manhidingunderdeskcartooncopy_zps2a210156.jpg
IF WE DON'T CLEAN HOUSE -- AND THE SENATE -- IN 2014, WE DESERVE WHATEVERTHEHELL "THEY" DO TO US!

38 posted on 02/02/2014 2:37:00 PM PST by Dick Bachert (Ignorance is NOT BLISS. It is the ROAD TO SERFDOM! We're on a ROAD TRIP!!)
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To: fifedom

They’re thinking how much further up 0’s backside they can crawl.


39 posted on 02/02/2014 2:40:34 PM PST by bgill
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To: wny
They’re not called the stupid party for no reason.

I too was racking my brain for an explanation. Then it hit me... the Dems and the R's are supposed to take turns. That's pretty much been the Washington way for over 200 years.

The R's are the stupid party because they haven't realized the Dems are playing for keeps now and don't want to give them any more turns.

40 posted on 02/02/2014 2:41:25 PM PST by Pearls Before Swine
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To: fifedom

I personally believe part of why the GOP-e are going against the tide of good rightful thinking on immigration is that they are being shoved (aka blackmailed) into this by the pro-Business lobbying group the Chamber of Commerce of USA and other open border lobbyist’s. The group has been pumping umpteen millions into the pols campaigns and now the CoC is demanding payback or else. They’re now demanding ‘QUID PRO QUO’.


41 posted on 02/02/2014 3:24:22 PM PST by Ron H. (The GOP-e is the Tea Party's best recruiter yet. Stay at it GOP the Tea Party appreciates your help.)
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To: fifedom

Being a true conservative means believing in a small(er) federal government. In Washington this means having to say “I want less power in my own hands because that’s what’s best for the country”.

Very, very few pols think this way. This is why most conservatives are hated in Washington. They’d take power away from the pols who want it.

In short, this is why the republcian party is always at war with its conservative base - because most republicans are fine with big government as long as they are in charge. This is why #5 on the list is spot on - the big government republicans can’t stand the thought of more Ted Cruz’s making their life hell, forcing them to actually act conservative.


42 posted on 02/02/2014 9:43:17 PM PST by Personal Responsibility (I'd use the /S tag but is it really necessary?)
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