Posted on 02/02/2014 10:20:06 PM PST by Olog-hai
Half the world economy is one accident away from a deflation trap. The International Monetary Fund says the probability may now be as high as 20 percent.
It is a remarkable state of affairs that the G2 monetary superpowers—the US and China—should both be tightening into such a 20 percent risk, though no doubt they have concluded that asset bubbles are becoming an even bigger danger.
“We need to be extremely vigilant,” said the IMF’s Christine Lagarde in Davos. “The deflation risk is what would occur if there was a shock to those economies now at low inflation rates, way below target. I don’t think anyone can dispute that in the eurozone, inflation is way below target.” […]
The World Bank warns in its latest report—Capital Flows and Risks in Developing Countries—that the withdrawal of stimulus by the US Federal Reserve could throw a “curveball” at the international system. …
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
The Fat-Cats scream as the Fed tapers away their QE handouts...
Yep.
In a way, but with deflation can also come devaluation of goods, which would cause the real problem called “deflationary spiral” where the real value of debt skyrockets and production is discouraged.
Don’t be in debt during deflation. The debt doesn’t deflate, but your income, and your ability to pay it will. Otherwise, deflation can be good, if you can keep your income up past the rate of deflation.
In layman's terms, yes; realistically, no.
There's a term, biflation, which has been coined to describe simultaneous inflation and deflation.
A better opposite of inflation would probably be market crashes (like the housing bubble) which are corrections on inflated items [in the example's case housing].
(A better opposite of deflation would probably be [legitimate/full-economy] market growth; which would represent the strengthening of an economy.)
So does deflation mean my money will buy more? If so, bring it on.
The bad thing is that anyone who owns a business is always losing money. They buy their inventory at the beginning of the month and by the end of the month the value of their inventory is down, so they have to lower prices.
You may have less money to spend, because everybody will be cutting wages or pensions to keep solvent.
Except for government workers - they will likely get a fat raise.. they will be smiling with no worries at all..
The sadistic workers at the EPA will use the chance to accelerate more destructive regs.
If you have plenty of money saved, and no debt, you’re okay. And if you maintain the same income, you’re okay.
If you lose your job, though...
Yes, most products become cheaper to buy. It is good for those with jobs and savings. Not so good for stock holders. It will hurt the top 1% the most.
I have huge respect for Ambrose.
But his obsession with deflation is so bizarre I barely know how to respond to it.
Perhaps in the Euro zone it is a little more tricky because they really don’t have an independent Central Bank.
But in the USA and Japan, monetary policy has not been artificially tight for decades, and any price declines represent supply and demand issues, not monetary policy.
What's the probability of a 4th int'l banker being "found dead" this week?
...the US is printing trillions and trillions of dollars and they’re worried about deflation?
That doesn’t make any sense.
Ah, obama would love that.
The world's economy is growing, and that requires more money to facilitate exchange of goods and services. The USA is acting as the world's bank. Such a bank can print money, but there still will be deflation, as long as the rate of printing is lower than the demand.
Just wonder if we will have enough rope for all the Free Trader Conmunist Globalists who push this One World stupidity
Deflation = the price of everyday things like food and heating/cooling still goes up.
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