Skip to comments.'It's going to be a dogfight:' Grimes leads McConnell in first Bluegrass Poll
Posted on 02/06/2014 4:22:17 PM PST by SomeCallMeTim
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WHAS11) -- Nine months before Kentucky's 2014 U.S. Senate election, Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes leads five-term incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 46% to 42% in a WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll released Thursday.
McConnell enjoys a comfortable 26 point margin in the Republican primary contest against Matt Bevin in the poll conducted by Survey USA and commissioned by a partnership of WHAS11, The Courier-Journal, WKYT-TV in Lexington and the Lexington Herald-Leader.
If the people of KY want Mitch after all he has and hasn’t done, they deserve to be represented by him.
From the article: “Sixty percent of likely voters in the Bluegrass Poll disapprove of McConnell’s job performance”.
That’s gonna be a hard sell.
The problem with this country are the people that are swayed by radio and TV ads. I understand it but it amazes me that people fall for it, especially in this day and age when everything there is know about politicians and their record is literally at your finger tips.
That's got to indicate a big swing from this poll by election day. Hang tough, Bevin. Make Mitch nervous
I stopped believing Dem media push polls that onky benefit the Dems and not the Conservative option.
Recall PPP poll that was the media gospel how Ken. C in VA was getting crushed but surprise lost by only 2 %.
They all knew that and hide it to keep voter turn out low.
Its the same scam here !
Trust me Mitchy has shifted right on immigration because Bevin is moving in for the kill.
But the local left Dem media in KY will not let that fact get out !
Oh yeah...like a LIBERAL DEMOCRAT will be better....REALLY??? Do TELL how so!!
This poll is BS. McConnell is in trouble and he’s having his KY friends in the media posit favorable ratings for him.
I LOVE how staunchly conservative Pols like Mitch get religion come election time. :-)
If we just had an election every year? Mitch would be awesome!
What a crock!!!No way a democrat wins Kentucky in 2014.....lots more insurance policies to get cancelled!!
Need more details on this poll before we can pass judgment. Is it Likely Voters? What are the crosstabs and poll make up? Is that consistent with previous election turnouts?
Horrible for Bevin. I mean I loathe McConnell so much I can live with losing the seat and then getting it back later, but how is this possible? I have high hopes for Bevin.
We’ll show the GOP-e, vote for Lundergan.
What is happening is very similar to what happened with that weak rino father of communist health care — mit robedme. We stay the hell HOME!!! I wouldn’t scratch my back for that POS if he begged me on bended knee. Get these weaklings off the ballot or we are gone.
The details of the poll are linked at the site,
yes Skink... The paper are all VERY liberal rags.. But, Joe Arnold is a pretty straight up guy. The poll numbers look about right to me,
“If the people of KY want Mitch after all he has and hasnt done, they deserve to be represented by him.”
Unfortunately, it isn’t just about Kentucky.
the bigger story is the republican challenger beats bitch mcconnell if the election was held today.
Please see the links in post #8, all recent FR articles. I don’t know that Bevin is as far behind as this post claims.
I agree. Grimes seems to be desperately trying to get to McConnell’s right on guns and coal and even more desperately trying to run away from Harry Reid and Obama.
That may bump her favorability, but it’s going to be a very hard sell when people hit the voting booth.
Romney beat Obama by 23% in Kentucky just 18 months ago.
And, the state is 86% white.
No, but the primary challenger would be.
Hardly.. Mitch is 26 points ahead of Bevin. Even if, ALL undecided went to Bevin, McConnell wins by 10.
#8!!! Are all of those recent FR posts wrong?!?!
I'm not worried about McConnell's position against Grimes. He will beat here.
I was really hoping Bevin could beat Mitch. I'm still going to keep working for it. But, NAME RECOGNITION is killing Bevin. Or rather, LACK thereof.
We found a guy in Indiana who ran 10 points behind ROMNEY!
Throw in 5 or 6 points to a Dem funded Libertarian and you get the infamous “Clinton plurality” win for the Dems.
DITCH MITCH! He’s going to lose!!!!!!
Wait and see... I think Bevin wins on primary day. I mean, who would be excited to vote for Mitch in the primary? Even his staff are “holding their noses”.
There are a lot of “moderates” in KY Republican ranks who know nothing of McC’s often liberal voting record. They stick with a name they recognize.
That was before the Obamacare dream turned into a nightmare.
Well, for starters.. all three of those recent posts are based on ONE poll... done by Rasmussen, on Jan. 29-30. It was a poll of 500 people, done only on the phone. It used only land line phones, no cell phones. They did use some online survey forms to help correct for people who don't have land line phones. It was LIKELY VOTERS... and, it has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.
The poll I linked was done on Jan 30 - Feb 4. It was 1200 people, of which 1082 were REGISTERED VOTERS. Of the 1082 Registered voters, ~ 40% were registered as Republicans, and only THOSE people were asked the primary question.
The poll was done on land lines (77%) and cell phones (23%) and also included some on-line surveys. It has a margin of error of +/3%.
So, no... I wouldn't say the other poll was WRONG? It was just slightly different. The results from both polls are within the margin of error. SO, statistically... they say the same thing.
Personally, I Think a poll of "Likely Voters" is more accurate than "Registered Voters". So, the data on the general election might be better in the Rassmussen poll. However, I don't think either of the polls is accurate on that part. It's just too far out. Grimes will not defeat either Bevin or McConnell.
In my opinion, the WHAS poll is MUCH more accurate on the Republican Primary race. That's why it's such bad news for Bevin. He's still really far behind. The GOOD NEWS for Bevin is, the data indicates that his problem isn't that people don't LIKE him... they just don't KNOW him. That's what campaigns are for... to introduce and sell yourself to the public. But, he's going to need a LOT more money. And, some kind of issue to separate himself from Mitch.
Of course, Mitch is making that very difficult, since... he's the "uber-conservative" during election years. It's an uphill battle for Bevin.
Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes leads five-term incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 46% to 42%
McConnell enjoys a comfortable 26 point margin in the Republican primary contest against Matt Bevin in the poll conducted by Survey USA
Let me see if I’ve got this right: The 5-Term incumbent is trailing his Democratic Challenger by 4 percentage points; yet, the majority of GOP Primary voters still want him to be their candidate in November???? Who did they poll? The inbreds in the mountains?
Well.... this IS Kentucky. So... some of them, yeah!
I don't believe for a second that McConnell or Bevin would lose to Grimes in the general. People in the state are disgusted with Mitch. But, they don't really know Grimes yet either. McConnell's mud slinging machine has been solely focued on Bevin for now. People, in general, know even LESS about Bevin than they do Grimes. What little they do know? Is negative crap told to them from Mitch.
There are a lot of moderates in KY Republican ranks who know nothing of McCs often liberal voting record.
And, thanks be to God, these are people who do NOT vote in Primary Elections 90% of the time.
Thanks for the ping.
This is a poll of registered voters (over half of whom don’t vote in midterm elections, with young people, minorities, soft Democrats and independents being the likeliest not to vote) that oversamples Democrats and in which supporters of each of McConnell and Bevin have every incentive to claim that they won’t be voting for the other Republican in a matchup against Alison Lundergan Grimes (or Grimey, as she prefers to be called), given that supporters of each candidate want to project the notion that only their guy can defeat Grimey. If this was a poll of likely voters that matched the electorate that we’ll get this November, both McConnell and Bevin would be leading Grimey. Absent a big screw-up by the GOP nominee (which I humbly suggest is something that would be a hundred times likelier to occur with the untested, unknown Bevin as the nominee than with McConnell), Grimey can’t win: she’s a Democrat running for the U.S. Senate in KY in 2014, and so far has not proven to have very good campaigning skills.
McConnell would get 53%+ against Grimey; Bevin would get somewhere between 45% and 55%, depending on a large number of factors. Grimey certainly would have a much easier time “defining” Bevin in voters’ eyes than she would at trying to define McConnell.
I'm not so sure... The Rasmussen poll linked above (post 8) was Likely Voters. It showed McConnell and Grimes tied. Bevin was slightly ahead of Grimes.
But, I agree that the numbers are skewed now, for all the reasons you stated. I'm not worried about my state voting Republican in a State wide election... barring, as you say, an "Akin-like" self-inflicted wound. Which, yes... would be more likely from Bevin than from McConnell. But, we've got 3 months to go. Let's see how the campaigning goes.
Another little tidbit buried in this poll. Not sure it’s valid everywhere, but.. in Kentucky? The ONLY demographic group that likes ObamaCare? Blacks.
At least, they are the ONLY group that doesn’t have >50% favoring Repeal & Replace.
The crosstabs are behind Rasmussen’s paywall, but I wouldn’t put too much weight on the Ras poll. Ras has been terrible since Scott Rasmussen left the firm (not that they were very good in 2012).
Here’s an item that surely Grimey will make hay of if Bevin wins the nomination: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/370605/bevin-facebook-post-enjoying-time-john-birch-society-union-ky-betsy-woodruff
Now, I’ve always had a soft spot in my heart for Birchers, but they seem to have gone a bit kooky during the past few decades, and finding crazy stuff they’ve said of late won’t take Grimey more than 5 minutes of research. Bevin did not not show good judgment by speaking at their meeting (to put it mildly). But the most interesting part of the story is that, in Bevin’s attempt to brush off the controversy by saying that there were “mainstream people” there as well, he noted that the event was attended by staffers of both Senator Rand Paul and Congressman Thomas Massie ... i.e., the two Paulistinians in the KY congressional delegation (and two of only four Paulbots in Congress, with the others being Congressmen Amash and Bentivolio of Michigan). Oh, and the Rand Paul staffer who attended the meeting recently quit to join the Bevin campaign (despite Rand Paul “supporting” McConnell). This does nothing to quell my very strong suspicions that Bevin is a Paultard.
Rat Mike Ross 44
GOP Asa Hutchinson 41
I call BS
Not necessarily. Asa is a weak candidate. He was the nominee in 2006 and botched it badly. He’s one candidate who could easily blow this again, and it’s imperative he not be nominated again.
Late news has it that Zero wants to (illegally) postpone that until 2017, when the Hildebeest will stand ready to sign some version of single-payer into law.
Who is his stronger competition, State Rep. Debra Hobbs? Curtis Coleman?
I was surprised to see the retread Asa seemingly anointed for this race.
40.7% is the exact figure that Asa got in 2006, so that dovetails right with his position in that poll. That’s pretty poor given how high profile he was (Congressman, brother of a Senator, DEA Chief) and that it was an open seat. What’s worse is that in 1990 when he last ran statewide for Attorney General (when the state was far more Democrat), he got 45%. He also ran for Senator way back in 1986 and got 38% (a bad Republican year), hardly worse than his last performance.
As for Coleman or Hobbs, Coleman might be stronger, but the only other experience he had with running was placing a very distant 5th in the 2010 Senate primary. Perhaps Hobbs might be a curious choice, as she’d be the first woman Governor (perhaps Sarah Palin could give her a boost). At this point, I’d rather risk it with those two than with what would be Asa’s 4th consecutive statewide loss.
With respect to Mike Ross, who at least was not a moonbat, it may have been smart for him to have bailed out of Congress when he did (it was his seat that went to Tom Cotton). He has at least even odds of holding the Governorship even as his GOP successor, Cotton, will likely defeat Pryor.