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Kentucky poll: Mitch McConnell now trails Democratic challenger by four points in Senate bid
Hotair ^ | 02/07/2014 | AllahPundit

Posted on 02/07/2014 2:49:00 PM PST by SeekAndFind

Each of the five polls taken since December have had the race tight, but this is the first one showing Alison Lundergan Grimes in the lead. Noise or omen?

I know what you’re thinking, but don’t celebrate just yet.

“This is not going to be a coast for Mitch McConnell,” said pollster Jay Leve of Survey USA. “It’s going to be a dogfight. Every vote is going to matter. This election is going to have national consequences. We’re going to see a lot of money from outside interests flow into Kentucky.”…

Sixty percent of likely voters in the Bluegrass Poll disapprove of McConnell’s job performance, matching President Barack Obama’s sixty percent disapproval rating in Kentucky…

Among likely voters, McConnell and Grimes have virtually identical favorability ratings in the poll, 27 percent for McConnell and 26 percent for Grimes.

But McConnell’s 50 percent unfavorability rating is nearly twice Grimes’ 27 percent unfavorability rating.

A 27/50 favorability rating is not the stuff of which reelection is made. That means Matt Bevin’s the obvious choice on electability grounds in the GOP primary, right? He’s doing about as well as McConnell is against Grimes right now, trailing by just five points. One recent poll from Rasmussen even had him outperforming McConnell head to head with the Democrat.

Maybe not. Survey USA has McConnell leading Bevin in the primary by 26 points, 55/29. Why? Because, while McConnell may be toxic to Democrats and independents, he’s still above water within his own party. Among Republicans, his job approval is net positive at 51/41 while his favorable rating is 46/30. Even more interesting, when you ask Kentucky GOPers if McConnell compromises too much, too little, or just the right amount with Democrats, they split 35/20/32, i.e., there’s a clear majority who either approve of his dealmaking or wish he would do more, a mild surprise among a base that nominated Rand Paul four years ago. The knock on him from grassroots righties is that he’s the RINO di tutti RINOs but, if you believe Survey USA, Kentucky Republicans aren’t seeing it.

Bevin’s numbers on the “compromise” question, incidentally, are 19/16/22, but it’s hard to draw firm lessons about him from that given that he’s still unknown to so many voters (when asked whether they view Bevin favorably or unfavorably, fully 64 percent of GOPers either said “neutral” or “no opinion”). Right now, as is always true of a tea-party challenger in the early stages, he’s more “Republican who isn’t the incumbent I dislike” than he is a candidate with discrete views of his own. What happens, though, once voters realize he’s running to McConnell’s right? In theory, the fact that even Republican voters prefer compromise would hurt him; Bevin himself is sufficiently worried about that that he took care to denounce the government shutdown last October (sort of) to put voters at ease. On the other hand, he’s posted photos of himself attending Bircher events, which is … not so compromise-y. He’s trying to find the sweet spot between being conservative enough to get tea partiers psyched to turn out in the primary and swamp the moderates backing McConnell and not so conservative that it’s easy for Grimes to demagogue him if he makes it to the general. Not easy, but Rubio was facing the same problem against Crist four years ago and you know how that turned out.

By the way, keep an eye on the proxy war that’s brewing here between the Clintons and Rand Paul, who’s taken to calling Bill a “sexual predator” lately. Grimes is bringing Bill Clinton to Kentucky to try to seize the electoral middle ground, in the expectation that McConnell and Bevin will spend the next few months tacking right for the primary. McConnell will, at some point, bring in his pal Rand to go to bat for him, whether in the primary or the general. Will Monica Lewinsky be name-checked before November? Fingers crossed.

CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE VIDEO



TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Politics/Elections; US: Kentucky
KEYWORDS: demagogicparty; kentucky; kentuckykickback; lundergangrimes; mattbevin; memebuilding; mitchmcconnell; ntsa; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; primarymcconnell; randsconcerntrolls; rino; tpinos

1 posted on 02/07/2014 2:49:00 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Do KY primaries require 50% to win the party nomination without a runoff?


2 posted on 02/07/2014 2:50:36 PM PST by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: SeekAndFind
All I can say is:

GOOD!.

3 posted on 02/07/2014 2:51:06 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: Paladin2

I do not like McConnell but it is never GOOD when a Democrat takes another senate seat.


4 posted on 02/07/2014 2:54:29 PM PST by Russ (Repeal the 17th amendment)
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To: Paladin2

He is trailing a DEMOCRAT !!

Does this Democrat support Obamacare? If he does and he wins, that’s one vote less for repeal.


5 posted on 02/07/2014 2:54:49 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Looks like the GOP-E and their candidate, McConnell, are about to cost the Republicans a Senate seat. McConnell should withdraw and support Matt Bevin, for the good of the party, the country and the children.


6 posted on 02/07/2014 3:07:54 PM PST by duffee (NO poll tax, NO tax on firearms, ammunition or gun safes. NO gun free zones.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Bevin sure seems like a really nice guy, has a really nice family, adopts kids, etc.

Do we need a really nice guy or someone that will take on the left not so nicely?
I’m tired of the do-gooders like Bush. I wish there was someone else to take McConnell out.


7 posted on 02/07/2014 3:08:23 PM PST by TribalPrincess2U (0bama's agenda¬óDivide and conquer seems to be working.)
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To: fwdude

No, KY has never had runoffs; it’s a plurality nomination, but I don’t think there is a third candidate in the Republican Senate primary.


8 posted on 02/07/2014 3:12:30 PM PST by Theodore R. (TX Republicans to endorse Cornball and George P! Stay tuned March 4)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think there is little question he is JUST about toast. The question is, can he be beaten in the Primary.


9 posted on 02/07/2014 3:15:15 PM PST by RIghtwardHo
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To: SeekAndFind

I would never vote for, nor would I ever encourage anyone else voting for a Democrat for anything, but......good!


10 posted on 02/07/2014 3:16:58 PM PST by elkfersupper
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To: Russ

Yeah because the republicans holding senate seats are doing such a bang up job.


11 posted on 02/07/2014 3:17:00 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Does this Democrat support Obamacare? If he does and he wins, that’s one vote less for repeal.

Uh, no it isn't. I wouldn't count McConnell as a vote for repeal either.

Well, okay.....he'll "vote for repeal" but only after he votes for a cloture to allow a BS bill for a vote that he knows will screw the people. Or he'll vote against cloture to avoid voting yay/nay on a repeal bill.

They whip count and allow liberal pubbies to vote yay/nay depending on who needs political cover at the time. In the end the public takes it in the shorts.

He just hopes the public is too stupid to notice......or that they enjoy their $2Billion dam that was thrown in to sweeten his deal on the government shutdown during his yay cloture/nay bill vote, knowing the Stupid Party (R) couldn't stop it after the cloture vote.

Remember, McConnell was the one that said the TEA Party needs a "punch in the nose." He's no conservative. He's a liberal in liberal-lite clothing.

About 95% of the incumbents in office need to go; I'm being generous at only 95%

12 posted on 02/07/2014 3:20:32 PM PST by Repeat Offender (Why are cops ROE more lenient against us, here in the US, than U.S. military's ROE's in a war zone?)
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To: TribalPrincess2U

bush was no do-gooder.He was a back stabbing sumbitch who gave us Obama.


13 posted on 02/07/2014 3:21:12 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: SeekAndFind

DO NOT jump all over me for saying this. I am only repeating what I heard.

McConnell was on Hugh Hewitt’s show last night. Hewitt said that he doesn’t believe the polling. He doesn’t believe that Kentucky would vote for Grimes because of her support for Obamacare.


14 posted on 02/07/2014 3:21:25 PM PST by MplsSteve
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To: All
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15 posted on 02/07/2014 3:27:23 PM PST by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: SeekAndFind

The poll gave Obama a higher approval rating at 34% to 32% for McConnell.

He needs to go!


16 posted on 02/07/2014 3:27:51 PM PST by Kaosinla (The More the Plans Fail. The More the Planners Plan.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Kentucky Republicans, what are you doing! This moron is going to lose! VOTE FOR BEVIN!


17 posted on 02/07/2014 3:29:35 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: duffee

McC withdrawing to support Bevin is the last thing that would ever happen. Now he could endorse Grimes over Bevin if such a contest ever materializes.


18 posted on 02/07/2014 3:38:33 PM PST by Theodore R. (TX Republicans to endorse Cornball and George P! Stay tuned March 4)
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To: SeekAndFind

Come on, Kentucky. Right now, Arizona voters own the trophy for the most gullible for re-electing John McCain. Utah is a close second for re-electing Orin Hatch. TX and KY are neck and neck for the next award with Cornyn and McConnell.


19 posted on 02/07/2014 3:56:37 PM PST by Paine in the Neck (Our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor)
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To: SeekAndFind

Sound and fury amounting to nothing. The kentucky doughboy will retire just before the primary. He probably has the drapes for his K street office measured already.

Q: So why is he bothering to stay in at this point?

A: Follow the money.


20 posted on 02/07/2014 4:08:37 PM PST by RKBA Democrat (Having some small say in who gets to hold the whip doesn't make you any less a slave.)
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To: SeekAndFind
“This is not going to be a coast for Mitch McConnell,” said pollster Jay Leve of Survey USA. “It’s going to be a dogfight."

Yeah...and we know how much of a fighter Bitch McConnell is, don't we (spits on ground)?

Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!

21 posted on 02/07/2014 4:12:01 PM PST by wku man (We are the 53%! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUXN0GDuLN4)
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Comment #22 Removed by Moderator

To: SeekAndFind

Why can’t these extremists in the middle realize they are going to cost us the Senate! McConell needs to step aside and let someone who can actually win run against the Democrats.


23 posted on 02/07/2014 4:53:21 PM PST by ElkGroveDan (My tagline is in the shop.)
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To: SeekAndFind

My prediction is that Republicans gain one net seat in the Senate, with the cowards we have running.

Unless the TEA Party can unseat the lot of them in the primaries.


24 posted on 02/08/2014 2:31:41 AM PST by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: Russ
I do not like McConnell but it is never GOOD when a Democrat takes another senate seat.

Shhhhh - the cut nose/spite face crew will have something to say about that.

25 posted on 02/08/2014 5:17:14 AM PST by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: duffee

Listened to Rand Paul on Beck radio yesterday (I think), and Beck straight up asked him, “Why did you endorse McConnell?”

Just as straight, Paul replies, “At the time, McConnell was the only one running.”

Not exactly a ringing endorsement, and I do recall at the time everyone thought McConnell too well-heeled to be opposed. But then Bevin stepped up to the plate.


26 posted on 02/08/2014 5:25:06 AM PST by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: ElkGroveDan

McConnell needs to go. I hope it’s in the primaries, but it looks like his ego could make it happen in the general.

Drop out, Mitch.

America needs you to make a patriotic decision to retire!


27 posted on 02/08/2014 5:56:06 AM PST by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: All

I’m aghast at the tone of this garbage. It isn’t that McConnell is a traitor and a sellout. Oh no...They put a positive face on that. McConnell is above water in his own party they say. Amazing stuff.


28 posted on 02/08/2014 6:44:56 AM PST by Luke21
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To: SeekAndFind

Why the hell did Rand Paul endorse McConnell?


29 posted on 02/08/2014 8:39:28 AM PST by Carry_Okie (0-Care IS Medicaid; they'll pull a sheet over your head and take everything you own to pay for it.)
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To: Carry_Okie

RE: Why the hell did Rand Paul endorse McConnell?

I think it was the same reason Rick Santorum endorsed the Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter — SENSE OF GRATITUDE. Specter really threw his support for Santorum when the latter was running for Senate. Not once, but twice.

McConnell probably gave the same enthusiastic support for Rand Paul.

Put yourself in their position, what would you have done?


30 posted on 02/08/2014 1:04:16 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Some Bevin supporters may claim they will vote for Grimes to play the polls. I hope Bevin, Wolf and all the challengers win to scare the establishment.

Grimes is no doubt pro-Obamacare, pro- affirmative action, pro- amnesty , pro-ENDA and wants to change the Supreme Court.

If McConnell wins the primary he should offer to step aside for Jeff Sessions as leader to try to get GOP turnout and working class voters.


31 posted on 02/08/2014 5:58:01 PM PST by ObamahatesPACoal
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Flush them out!
Please Contribute Today!

32 posted on 02/08/2014 5:58:30 PM PST by RedMDer (Happy with this, America? Make your voices heard. 2014 is just around the corner. ~ Sarah Palin)
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Comment #33 Removed by Moderator

To: SeekAndFind

It is a woman and no doubt as liberal as Landrieu or Hagan.

Obama will veto a repeal and sign the McConnell-Boehner 2015 Comprehensive Immigration bill.


34 posted on 02/08/2014 6:41:33 PM PST by ObamahatesPACoal
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To: xzins

Good one but can we post AP pics?


35 posted on 02/08/2014 6:43:26 PM PST by RedMDer (Happy with this, America? Make your voices heard. 2014 is just around the corner. ~ Sarah Palin)
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To: RedMDer; Admin Moderator

Good question. I don’t know. Mod, would you check the pic at #33. I posted it, and it could be an inappropriate posting. Thanks.


36 posted on 02/09/2014 1:44:27 AM PST by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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