Skip to comments.Turkey’s new carrier alters eastern Mediterranean energy and security calculus
Posted on 02/09/2014 6:35:33 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Turkey took a major step in altering the naval balance in the eastern Mediterranean by contracting the construction of a multi-purpose amphibious assault ship.
In late December 2013, Turkey took a major step in altering the naval balance in the eastern Mediterranean by contracting the construction of a multi-purpose amphibious assault ship that can function as an aircraft carrier, potentially providing Turkey an unprecedented measure of sea control in the region.
The heightened threat perception for Israel, Cyprus and Greece will impact the imminent decision regarding whether Israel will export its natural gas to a planned Cypriot LNG terminal with a European export route through Greece, or build a subsea pipeline to Turkey. Turkeys next diplomatic moves could make the difference between a comprehensive regional agreement for a Turkish export route for eastern Mediterranean offshore energy, or a naval arms race which Turkey economically cannot win.
Background In March 2012, then-commander of the Turkish navy Admiral Murat Bilgel outlined Turkeys strategic objective to operate not only in the littorals but also on the high seas, with high seas referring to the eastern Mediterranean. Bilgel identified the Turkish navys intermediate goals for the coming decade as enhancing sea denial, forward presence, and limited power projection capacity.
Turkeys new Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD) will cost between one half to one billion dollars and will provide Ankara with its desired forward presence in the eastern Mediterranean, which Greece, Cyprus and Israel cannot afford to ignore.
The new Turkish LHD, to be built by the Turkish shipyard SEDEF and Spanish shipbuilder Navantia, will be a variant of Navantias Juan Carlos I class L-61 ship used by the Spanish Navy. After Spain, Turkey will be only the second country to possess a Juan Carlos I class vessel.
The Australian navys two Navantia-built ships, the HMAS Canberra and HMAS Adelaide, once commissioned, will constitute the Australian fleets largest vessels. Similarly, Anakaras new LHD will dwarf the Turkish fleets largest ships.
While ships in Turkish Navys Gabya class have a 4,100 ton displacement, Turkeys new Juan Carlos I class LHD will have a displacement of 27,079 tons.
Providing the Turkish Navy with blue-water capabilities, Ankaras new LHD is game-changer in the eastern Mediterranean. The main mission profile of the Juan Carlos I class LHD is power projection to any theater of operation. As an amphibious assault ship, it can transport a battalion-sized unit of 1,000 troops along with 150 vehicles, including battle tanks, for a marine landing.
Even more significantly, the Juan Carlos I class LHD is an aircraft carrier substitute. The ship has already replaced Spains aircraft carrier the Principe de Asturias. In Spanish, the LHD ship is referred to by the abbreviation BPE, standing for Buque de Proyeccion Estrategica or Strategic Power Projection Ship, more accurately reflecting its purpose.
As an aircraft carrier, Turkeys LHD will feature a flight deck with a 12° ski-jump enabling it to host both V/STOL (Vertical and/or Short Take-Off and Landing) and STOVL (Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing) fighter aircraft. While six fighter aircraft can be parked on its flight deck, the ship also has a hangar bay that can house 12 additional fighter aircraft.
As Turkeys first aircraft carrier, the LHD will be capable of sailing non-stop for 30 days with a range of 1,700 nautical miles (3,148 km). In combination with Turkeys existing naval assets, the LHD will provide Ankara with the ability to project significant force in the areas of Cyprus and Israels offshore natural gas facilities, giving Turkey, in the short term, a greater measure of sea control in the region.
Implications Turkeys LHD acquisition constitutes part of Ankaras $3 billion National Warship Project, known by its Turkish abbreviation MILGEM, whose goal is to expand Turkeys capability to deploy combat forces far from its coasts. In September 2013, shortly after assuming his post as Turkeys new naval commander, Admiral Bülent Bostanoglu asserted in a national speech related to the MILGEM project that Turkeys maritime threat perception is energy-based and identified defending Turkeys interests in the eastern Mediterranean as the navys highest priority.
In this context, Turkeys LHD procurement will impact Israels decision-making process about how to export off-shore natural gas from its Tamar and Leviathan fields. Israels Tamar field is already in commercial production and in December 2013 additional reserves of up to 20 billion cubic meters were discovered. Israels Leviathan field is estimated to contain 510 billion cubic meters of natural gas.
The developers of the Israeli gas fields, the American firm Noble Energy and their Israeli partners Avner and Delek, signed a June 2013 MOU with Cyprus to build a Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) terminal in Vasilikos on the southern Cypriot coast. Because Cypruss Aphrodite gas field, also developed by Noble and Delek, is too small to attract sufficient investment to finance a gas liquefaction plant, cash-strapped Cyprus needs the volume of Israeli gas exports for a viable LNG terminal.
The arrangement also raises the possibility of a European market export route via Greece that would bypass Turkey.
The evolution of this possible export arrangement is the product of the trilateral cooperation in energy development and defense among Israel, Cyprus and Greece that arose in the context of the deteriorating relations between Israel and Turkey from 2008 to 2012.
In 2010, Turkeys National Security Policy Document (Milli Guvenlik Siyaseti Belgesi), commonly known as The Red Book, began to list Israel as a threat to regional security, while Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan famously promised that the Eastern Mediterranean will see Turkish battleships frequently.
A more cost-effective export route for Israeli natural gas would be via a subsea pipeline from the Leviathan field to Turkey. According to estimates from JP Morgan, the pipeline would yield a higher and faster return on investment than the construction of the planned LNG plant in Cyprus.
The Turkish firm Zorlu Energy and, more recently, Turcas Petrol have been pursuing the pipeline option with Israel.
However, Ankaras LHD acquisition in the context of the antagonistic posture toward Israel by Prime Minister Erdogan, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and other high-ranking Turkish ministers creates a heightened threat perception in Israel in which Jerusalem cannot afford to jeopardize its strategic relations with Nicosia and, by extension, Athens.
Moreover, the proposed Leviathan- Turkey pipeline would transverse Cypruss continental shelf requiring permission from Nicosia. Without a significant breakthrough for a political settlement on Northern Cyprus, Ankaras LHD acquisition similarly heightens Nicosias threat perception, altering the strategic calculus for both Nicosia and Athens.
Ankara has laid down a strategic marker with its enhanced naval capabilities in the eastern Mediterranean. If Turkey does not follow with diplomatic overtures to secure a comprehensive energy export agreement with Israel, Cyprus and Greece that meets Turkeys interests, Ankara will have wasted a valuable opportunity.
Instead, Ankara will have initiated a naval arms race which Turkey does not have the economic resources to win.
Israel does not need to match Turkeys procurement program to effectively counter a Turkish bid for greater sea control in the eastern Mediterranean.
Israel can respond with the less costly augmentation of its anti-access and area-denial capabilities. Both countries best interests are served by not becoming trapped in this kind of naval competition.
Conclusions Even though Turkeys new carrier and other naval assets have yet to be commissioned, their procurement has already altered the strategic balance in the eastern Mediterranean and the terms Turkey will be able to demand from its neighbors.
Greece, Cyprus and Israel will each need to recalibrate their strategic calculus. Unless these three can come to a regional agreement that incentivizes Turkey as a distribution hub for the sale of eastern Mediterranean natural gas, Greece, Cyprus and Israel will need to consider enhanced collective security arrangements to ensure their maritime interests.
A subsea pipeline from Israels Leviathan gas field to Turkey, one that also compensates Cyprus with revenue sharing and excess gas for the development of its LNG terminal, offers economic incentives to all the principal actors to reach a comprehensive arrangement for the security of the eastern Mediterranean.
For its part, Turkey will need to restore full and friendly relations with Israel while engaging Cyprus on a political settlement.
Such a shift in Turkish diplomacy will transform Turkeys naval build-up into an incentive for regional cooperation.
Without such a shift, Turkey will be committing itself to a long-term naval escalation in the eastern Mediterranean which its economy cannot sustain.
The author is a Fellow at the Shalem College Department of Middle East and Islamic Studies, and at the Asia and Middle East Units of the Hebrew Universitys Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace. He also teaches in Tel Aviv Universitys Departments of Middle Eastern History and East Asian Studies.
The Juan Carlos
The new fad in the 21st century. Everyone wants a carrier! Everyone wants to force project and show how big their peen is...
So with the ski slope, are the Turks planning to purchase F-35Bs?
It may be a beautiful well designed ship but it would be a leap to rate it an effective warship even if deployed. Foreign navies especially the Chinese all want carriers. However while they may be able to build them or procure them, what they can not readily have are experienced competent crews. The American Navy has over ninety years of carrier experience including much combat. The value of that experience and the constant passing of knowledge cannot be easily created. You can steal plans, buy or produce materials but you cannot easily create competent personnel. It will be a very long time if ever before these foreign navies have effective carriers that can function far from their shores.
Easy to dismiss a single LHA/LHD as an insignificant bit of power compared to US standards. But in the Eastern Med it could indeed change the regional power game. I trust Turkey knows there’s a long learning period before they can employ it effectively. And as a point-centric power platform, it’s a high-value target.
Carriers are indeed sub bait. Many years ago, there was an argument between two Soviet admirals; one favored greater development of submarines, the other favored aircraft carriers and large capital ships.
The latter admiral won the argument at that time; the losing admiral was, if I recall correctly, shot. This was during Stalin’s reign.
That was exactly my thought.
The real story isn't Turkey's quest for power projection, it's the graft involved in building that ridiculous thing.
If Billy Mitchell had been born a Russian, he would have been shot for advocating air power.
There isn’t any place in the eastern Med that isn’t within striking distance of a country with 1st class land-based strike aircraft. If this thing isn’t targeted by a sub it will spend all it’s limited deck space hauling interceptors to protect itself.
Really effective carriers have to ship a balanced air wing that can perform ASW, strike & air defense. Smaller carriers sacrifice capability in 1 or more areas.
Spaniards build beautiful warships. Always have. Put a Spanish ship into the hands of the English Royal Navy and you have something!
If youd like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
“Always have. Put a Spanish ship into the hands of the English Royal Navy and you have something!”
During Nelson’s time the Spaniards did that quite a lot.
Yup, that was the era I was referencing. The Spaniard is a lover, not a fighter!
That’s my take on it to. Where do the Turks intend to project power? This won’t help them against their immediate neighbors, where they have real interests and conflicts, and some prospect of exerting real power. And I don’t see them sending this thing to somewhere like the Persian Gulf.
Alternately its a bargaining piece to use to trade services with some other power. Something for the Saudis to rent, as part of some Sunni coalition effort far from Turkey. And far from Israel.