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Stocks fall sharply on weaker-than-expected claims and retail data
cnbc.com ^ | February 13, 2014 | Kate Gibson

Posted on 02/13/2014 6:49:33 AM PST by John W

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Thursday after economic reports had more Americans than projected filing for jobless claims last week and retail sales unexpectedly falling in January.

The Labor Department reported applications for unemployment benefits climbed by 8,000 to 339,000, higher than the 300,000 projected by economists. Separately, the Commerce Department reported retail sales fell 0.4 percent last month from December, versus expectations they would be flat.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dowchart; dowdepression; retail; retaildata; retailers; stockmarket
The dreaded Double Unexpected.
1 posted on 02/13/2014 6:49:33 AM PST by John W
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To: John W

I can’t remember the last time I read a genuinely true assessment of our markets. Everything is “X-er-than-expected” these days. Apparently SOMEONE needs to lose their job for ignorance and incompetence.


2 posted on 02/13/2014 6:51:36 AM PST by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: John W
  I think we expected it, but they didn't expect it. They're always surprised when the obvious happens.
3 posted on 02/13/2014 6:52:51 AM PST by Maurice Tift (Never wear anything that panics the cat. -- P.J. O'Rourke)
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To: John W

My perception is that the economy (at least here in the midwest) is still sucking bilgewater.

OTOH the youngsters I’ve sent down to the DC area have excellent jobs and are prospering.


4 posted on 02/13/2014 6:54:58 AM PST by nascarnation (I'm hiring Jack Palladino to investigate Baraq's golf scores.)
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To: rarestia

It comes from the belief in central planning that every liberal holds. They worship the economist not because they want to understand the markets, but because they believe that markets are under someone’s control or can be.


5 posted on 02/13/2014 6:57:39 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: rarestia

Private economists working for Wall Street firms try to estimate what upcoming economic data will show. Sometimes they get it exactly right, but it’s not as easy as you might think, and when the data are higher or lower than what their estimations had predicted, the market adjusts to the new information.

That is the origin of the “expectations”. It’s not coming from the government, it’s coming from the private sector, and they are trying their hardest to get it right. The constant implication that somehow these guys are “in the tank” for Obama by predicting retail sales a few ticks too high is one of the absurdities of the conservative internet. Instapundit is particularly wooden-headed on this subject.


6 posted on 02/13/2014 6:57:55 AM PST by babble-on
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To: John W
Retail sales unexpectedly falling in January

UNEXPECTEDLY???? In huge swaths of the country, people cannot get out of their houses because of the weather. Budgets are getting frayed by heating costs.

It's not "unexpected". Of course there's less need for labor when people are spending mostly on necessities. Those analysts just say stuff that will keep the government printing presses going.

7 posted on 02/13/2014 6:59:16 AM PST by grania
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To: John W

I think it was caused by the snowstorm arriving today. Nothing to do with The Obama.
:o


8 posted on 02/13/2014 7:00:52 AM PST by BilLies (330,000 WHITE Union military went to their deaths to free the slaves .... REALLY???!!!)
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To: babble-on

Why would they have predicted flat retail sales given what is known even to the layman as noted in post # 7?


9 posted on 02/13/2014 7:01:14 AM PST by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: John W

Sorry, too late, they’ve already bounced back. The mercurial Mr Market - he goes up and down every hour!


10 posted on 02/13/2014 7:02:36 AM PST by proxy_user
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To: proxy_user

I figured that. This was just the best first couple paragraphs in a news story I could find on the Double Unexpected.


11 posted on 02/13/2014 7:03:41 AM PST by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: John W

IBM fired 12,000. Reducing 1 billion in costs.


12 posted on 02/13/2014 7:06:00 AM PST by edcoil ( "All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone." - Blaise Pascal)
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To: John W

All I can say is if you think it’s easy, you are free to throw your hat in the ring. You would have made a bundle today. It’s a big country and from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific, it’s been an incredibly dry and mild winter. There are also sizable seasonal adjustments that go into the data to account for winter, post Christmas doldrums etc. We also had the stock market up 30% last year, and a lot of people got a lot of capital gains distributions from mutual funds, so I think there was some expectation that would add a tick or two to the January numbers.

Tomorrow we have Industrial Production. Expecting a M/M change of 0.3%, with the lowest guess at ).0% and the highest at 0.6%. If you think you know better, there’s a big financial market out there to short.


13 posted on 02/13/2014 7:07:49 AM PST by babble-on
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To: John W

All I can say is if you think it’s easy, you are free to throw your hat in the ring. You would have made a bundle today. It’s a big country and from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific, it’s been an incredibly dry and mild winter. There are also sizable seasonal adjustments that go into the data to account for winter, post Christmas doldrums etc. We also had the stock market up 30% last year, and a lot of people got a lot of capital gains distributions from mutual funds, so I think there was some expectation that would add a tick or two to the January numbers.

Tomorrow we have Industrial Production. Expecting a M/M change of 0.3%, with the lowest guess at ).0% and the highest at 0.6%. If you think you know better, there’s a big financial market out there to short.


14 posted on 02/13/2014 7:07:50 AM PST by babble-on
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To: John W; 2ndDivisionVet

Probably the real reason stocks are falling are discussed in the article/FR posting linked below.

Herr Obozomeister and his cabinet fascists plan to harm any business shedding employees to avoid Obozo Care, the Unaffordable Care Act.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3121901/posts

Treasury: Employers must “self-attest” OCare not behind staffing decisions–under penalty of perjury
Hot Air ^ | February 11, 2014 | Ed Morrissey
PM by 2ndDivisionVet

Er … exactly what gives Treasury the authority to demand that kind of pledge, anyway? The law only mandates that employers provide coverage for full-time employees, a status defined by working 30 or more hours a week. It doesn’t contain any authority for Treasury or anyone else to force current full-time employees to stay in that status, nor for the federal government to dictate ratios of full-time/part-time staff.

Gabriel Malor wondered the same thing:

Gabriel Malor @gabrielmalor

On what statutory authority Treasury is relying
for the certification requirement? http://goo.gl/0DC6oY


15 posted on 02/13/2014 7:07:55 AM PST by Grampa Dave ( Obozo Care is a Trinity of Lies! Obozo Care is probably a serious Black Swan event.)
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To: BilLies

In a country that was sane and paying attention, you’d think if our Creator continued to bury our national capital under wave after wave of blizzards, the people would finally start to take the hint.


16 posted on 02/13/2014 7:08:27 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: babble-on

Well, if I were wrong as often in my chosen profession as these folks are I seriously doubt my career would have been as successful as it has been. Of course, I realize their work is much more difficult than mine.


17 posted on 02/13/2014 7:10:27 AM PST by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: John W

Good news, bad news none of it matters, the only thing that matters is the Fed keeps pumping.

In the economic Ivory Towers everything is good, there was a time not long ago where we the people could get a sliver of the pie, not so much anymore, your little piece of the pie is under constant attack. IMO!


18 posted on 02/13/2014 7:10:35 AM PST by PoloSec ( Believe the Gospel: how that Christ died for our sins, was buried and rose again)
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To: babble-on

Don’t mistake my commentary for tin-foil hattery. I’m making the observation that they often miss the mark. You would think they’d learn and adjust their forecasting algorithms or fix what’s broken in their observational metrics.


19 posted on 02/13/2014 7:13:06 AM PST by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: babble-on

I don’t disagree with you in principle.

I look at it this way. Try making predictions when the data you are given to work with has been adulterated for political reasons? Do these prognosticators have any inkling of how distorted job growth, unemployment and inflation are? IOW, to make an “accurate” prediction, I have to near match (largely) phony numbers spewed from the government, using as my working data, (largely) phony numbers spewed from the government.

A daunting task.


20 posted on 02/13/2014 7:16:42 AM PST by ChildOfThe60s ((If you can remember the 60s.....you weren't really there)
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To: rarestia
Apparently SOMEONE needs to lose their job for ignorance and incompetence.

Who is Obama, Alex?

21 posted on 02/13/2014 7:16:53 AM PST by TruthShallSetYouFree (lib-pocrisy: requiring photo ID at march protesting photo IDs for voters.)
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To: rarestia
Apparently SOMEONE needs to lose their job for ignorance and incompetence.

You don't understand what these economist's true job is. Its to conceal the true state of the economy and to project a false perception of it to the masses. Considering that I'd say they were doing a pretty good job of it.

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." - Henry Ford

22 posted on 02/13/2014 7:21:07 AM PST by Count of Monte Fisto (The foundation of modern society is the denial of reality.)
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To: rarestia

The beauty of “forecasting algorithms” is that they can be developed to show the desired result.
MAN ufactured Global Warming anyone?


23 posted on 02/13/2014 7:23:33 AM PST by BilLies (330,000 WHITE Union military went to their deaths to free the slaves .... REALLY???!!!)
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To: rarestia

If just one person could do what you say, and thereby become the most accurate forecaster on the Street, he’d be a billionaire inside of a year. (In other words, if in fact it were as easy as you say, someone would have done it.)

I will say that they have gotten better over the past 30 years that I have been on Wall Street. There’s more people doing it, more seriously, and with more computing power, but there are just a lot of moving parts.


24 posted on 02/13/2014 7:23:52 AM PST by babble-on
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To: John W
Unexpected
25 posted on 02/13/2014 7:30:02 AM PST by tomkat
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To: babble-on

It just seems that, when it comes to the weekly report on new jobless claims, 9 times out of 10, the report was ‘unexpected’, ‘weaker than expected’, etc.

My theory is that the profession of being an ‘economist’ is infested with people who are ‘bullish’ on the economy....primarily because they themselves start investing in the stock market at a very young age, and their personal financial planning is tied to it. So, they are almost always ‘confident’, and seeing/hoping for the best.

As a relative layman, its gets a little tiring to see professional ‘economists’ setting expectations too high. I swear, for the last 5 years, every November we hear about what a ‘great Christmas season’ it will be...I chuckle, and predict what excuses will be used in January, when the results are in.

Another thing I have noticed. Every economics class I ever took was taught as part of the Political Science department. These guys aren’t necessarily mathematicians, and they seem to trend towards being quite liberal. And, quite frankly, it shows - the ‘expectations’ seem to be higher when the president has a ‘D’ by his name.


26 posted on 02/13/2014 7:37:41 AM PST by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

What hint? It’s snow. Some years there is more snow than others.


27 posted on 02/13/2014 7:39:36 AM PST by plain talk
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To: All

Lead sentence on the jobless claims report from the LA Times:

Initial jobless claims rose last week, but remained at a level consistent with moderate labor market growth amid mixed signals recently about the strength of the economic recovery.


28 posted on 02/13/2014 7:50:29 AM PST by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: lacrew

All of your points are false.


29 posted on 02/13/2014 8:13:47 AM PST by babble-on
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To: babble-on

Well, ok then.

But how can my statement that in my own personal life experience, economics classes were taught by political science professors be false? Do you dispute that?

You are obviously ‘close’ to the business...perhaps, just maybe, a little too close to be 100% objective?

Again, as an outsider, just listening to the white noise in the background, I seem to hear a lot more about economic data NOT meeting expectations than the reverse. Do you really characterize that as flatly false? You don’t see any pattern whatsoever of economists setting expectations too high?

Seriously - people joke about this stuff. When a large project is funded, people automatically laugh at the predicted cost, and know it will almost always be higher. Whenever sales taxes go up, we in the great unwashed masses know with certainty that it won’t raise as much revenue as expected. And I wasn’t kidding about Christmas time. Here’s this year’s version of the story:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0144e7ea-7939-11e3-91ac-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2tDkWMSIw

Turns out that, per the article, ‘weaker than expected December sales’ struck again. Personally, I EXPCECTED this article...I see the same article every year.

I hate to be blunt - but its become almost farcical. You say that’s false. But seriously, look at this thread. Very few people have any faith in ‘economic predictions’ these days. Doesn’t that mean that there may be a kernel of truth in my theory - and perhaps economists have oversold the economy one too many times, and lost credibility?


30 posted on 02/13/2014 8:44:17 AM PST by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: lacrew
Stock market is following 1928-1929 pattern before the crash...Interesting..


31 posted on 02/13/2014 8:53:21 AM PST by caww
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To: grania

“Budgets are getting frayed by heating costs.”

Are they ever!


32 posted on 02/13/2014 8:59:06 AM PST by demshateGod (The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.)
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To: babble-on

Guess that takes care of that.


33 posted on 02/13/2014 9:34:16 AM PST by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: John W

Stocks are up now. I swear people are being “played” in this market. There’s no reason for the Dow to be approaching 16,000 again, and yet, here we are.


34 posted on 02/13/2014 10:04:19 AM PST by CatOwner
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To: rarestia

We just don’t seem to have any competent expectors anymore.


35 posted on 02/13/2014 10:06:16 AM PST by RipSawyer (The TREE currently falling on you actually IS worse than a Bush.)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

Well, it’s not like the capital is the only area being buried under snow and ice.


36 posted on 02/13/2014 10:09:14 AM PST by RipSawyer (The TREE currently falling on you actually IS worse than a Bush.)
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Comment #37 Removed by Moderator

To: grania

The weather has impacts beyond the affected regions.

I have had to delay shipping 2 orders, so far. One because is was too cold to work here and another because a supplier in PA couldn’t ship due to ice and snow.

This affected distributors in OH and IL and their customers all over the US and Canada.

My extra costs for propane cuts into my bottom line and results in me not having as much money to spend. Add to that, I am paying more for health insurance, food and electricity.

I suppose it is *unexpected* in that it wasn’t already figured into the economic models.


38 posted on 02/13/2014 10:21:01 AM PST by reformedliberal
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To: caww

This is a function of separate x and y axes. If you index each those time series to their initial observation, the chart gets a lot less interesting.


39 posted on 02/13/2014 10:43:00 AM PST by oincobx
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