Skip to comments.POLL: CORNYN WON’T WIN MARCH 4 TEXAS GOP PRIMARY
Posted on 02/17/2014 7:52:32 AM PST by jimbo123
Just 22 months after Ted Cruzs upset victory over Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Texas Republicans want to toss another high-profile establishment Republican into a runoff for a U.S. Senate seat against his conservative challenger.
A new Gravis/Human Events poll shows incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) with only 43 percent support in the March 4 Texas Republican primary, forcing him into a May 27 runoff against U.S. Rep Steve Stockman (R-TX 36.)
Stockman is in second place, grabbing 28 percent and quickly closing in on Cornyn. The remaining 29 percent were undecided.
The poll was conducted before voters knew Cornyn voted the evening of Feb. 12 to kill a Ted Cruz filibuster and advance a total suspension of Obamas debt limit until March 2015. Cornyns vote to raise the debt limit set off a firestorm of opposition to him among Texas Republican voters.
Gravis Marketing conducted the poll Feb. 10-12 for Human Events, a prominent national conservative newspaper. It was published Monday in Human Events and was not commissioned by any campaign or conducted with any campaigns knowledge.
This is the fifth poll published in Cornyns race. All five show Cornyn forced into a runoff. Research by polling experts shows undecided voters usually do not break for the incumbents and incumbents usually lose runoff elections.
The buzzards are circling over John Cornyn. A runoff is an incumbents death sentence, said Stockman spokesman Donny Ferguson. This is why Cornyn refuses to release his internal poll numbers.
(Excerpt) Read more at stockmanforsenate2014.com ...
I love Ted Cruz & Mike Lee. They force Pubs to show where they stand. If we support Pubs that don’t represent us, after we find out they are against us, we deserve what happens next.
Misleading headline. Cornyn leads by 15. It’s fine to say he won’t reach 50%, but Stockman is still a long way away.
While that would be, well, awesome . . . there is zero chance of that. yeah, there may be a runoff but at this point Cornyn wins in a walk.
Replacing Cornyn and the parrot-beaked turtle from Kentucky alone will DOUBLE those numbers.
I honestly don’t know much about Stockman, can someone enlighten me.
I don’t just want to vote for someone just because he is not someone else.
Did you predict that Dewhurst would beat Ted Cruz? Most “experts” did. Texas Republicans are not the typical low-information sheeple that populate other states.
If cornholio has a runoff... he will lose.
The source explains that.
I guess the theory/hope is that, in a run-off, all the anti-Cornyn vote will be consolidated behind whoever the remaining opponent is. I don’t know enough to know how these things have worked out in the past, I imagine a good deal might depend on exactly who is that second place finisher.
Rep. Steve Stockman @StockmanSenate 2m
Why won’t Cornyn release his internal poll numbers? He given three days to comment on the poll. Why didn’t he counter with his own numbers?
This Texas independent conservative will be voting for Steve Stockman in the GOP Primary. He is also my congressman.
Cruz/Dewhurst is a pretty good example of how it works out. Cruz didn't start getting support and money until after the first vote, and going into the run-off.
Just have to ask ... Have you been talking with c. Rove?
I found out recently the word *Ho* has been banned in Australia. Santa has no *HO-HO-HO*.
Cantor and McCarthy too. Who else? :)
Do you work for Cornyn or Rove?
What a blessing that would be.
I know of ZERO conservatives that will vote for Cornyn anymore. He lost everyone with his actions. I don’t see his signs in yards.
DONT GET COMPLACENT
He not only has to lose but LOSE BIG in order to send a message
Cornyn’s Facebook page says:
Our yard signs are covering Texas, just in time for EARLY VOTING!
The poll has Cornyn up by 12-15 points, but he isn’t going to win the primary?
RINOS are in a panic, it seems.
Which one of those do you work for?
Looking for your coworkers?
One can only hope that McConnell will feel the same fate.
I live AND vote in Tennessee. My hope is that Cornyn is forced into
Reminder: Early voting in the primary starts tomorrow, and there’s no cloture on this vote!
Okay, well, that may be the case. Certainly would be a big story.....
I kind of wish we could also replace some DEMON RAT senators.
If Cornyn gets booted, you can say goodbye to many of the GOPe as the momentum gathers to steamroll them.
A lot of the people that sat out Mitt will be ready to kick their a**es out the first chance they get.
Stockman has strong conservative record going back to the early 1990s.
He defeated democrat Jack Brooks in 1994, which was no small feat, since Stockman was unknown and Brooks was a 40-year incumbent and chairman of the House Judiciary Committee with the backing of the NRA. Brooks allowed the 1994 gun ban to move through the committee, while Stockman ran a pro-gun campaign.
He was defeated in '96 by socialist union-puppet Nick Lampson, but was recently re-elected. He did NOT vote for John Boener for House Speaker.
The Cornyn campaign and the Houston Chronicle are running a smear campaign (ciminal allegations and ethics complaints). Nothing to see here.
has the Tea Party endorsed Stockman?
I plan on voting, but just want to make sure my vote goes to the right conservative.
you are correct if you think ‘leading’ with 45% is actual leading.
What it means to me is that 55% are AGAINST him (so far)
Your type of statement/logic is how they foisted “frontrunner” Mitt Romney on us because he was ‘leading’ with 30% of the vote. So we ended up with a candidate that 70% didn’t want.
In this race all that matters RIGHT NOW is that he does not reach 50% (plus 1)
This will force a runoff, which incumbants tend to lose (55% are against him already)
Texans, don’t take this for granted. Fight harder than ever before. This is the Alamo and San Jacinto all over again except the enemy is Carl Rove, the RINOs and Cornyn.
To: Stockman Spokesman Donny Ferguson: Where are the Stockman radio and TV ads? Please don’t say there is no money for them. Stockman is supposed to be the one with the best chance of raising money and defeating Cornyn in a run-off election. Well, why isn’t he raising money now? Where are the ads? All Stockman has is Twitter, a blog and e-mail addresses.
Stockman has been my Congressman the last two times he served in Congress, but, I’m voting for Dwayne Stovall or Linda Vega. Probably Vega.
Yes Tejas, dump Cornrow.
Well, RIghtwardHo.... been wondering when you were gonna show up. Your RINO-troll buddy Theodore has already been here this morning. Guess you’ve been busy over at the DU.
Cornhole will be in a run-off and he will get his butt handed to him. In the 2012 Texas Republican primary for U.S. Senate, the heavily-favored Dewhurst finished ahead of Cruz by a wide 45 percent to 34 percent margin. Dewhurst lost the runoff to Cruz by 8 percentage points.
Runoffs are bad news for incumbents becuase they force the public’s attention on only one issue. Most incumbents win because voters go into a voting booth with too many choices to be informed on. They just click the R or the D at the top of the ticket.