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An Alternative “Peace” Scenario for the Middle East
FrontPage Magazine ^ | Joseph Puder | February 17, 2014

Posted on 02/17/2014 9:01:04 AM PST by SJackson

- FrontPage Magazine - -

An Alternative “Peace” Scenario for the Middle East

Posted By Joseph Puder On February 17, 2014 @ 12:05 am In Daily Mailer,FrontPage | 4 Comments

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to fly to Washington on March 2, 2014, where he will address the AIPAC Conference. The following day, Netanyahu will meet with U.S. President Barack Obama in the White House. The two will likely focus their talks on the ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, and the Israeli- Palestinian peace process led by Secretary of State John Kerry.

Kerry, according to Israeli sources, is preparing to present the framework for an agreement which would include Palestinian recognition of Israel as the nation state of the Jews, side by side with Israel’s recognition of Palestine as the nation state of the Palestinian.  Regarding borders, Kerry’s document is said to note that the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians will be based on the 1967 lines, allowing for land swaps, and taking into consideration demographic changes that have occurred in recent decades.

Some pundits have concluded that PM Netanyahu may accept Secretary of State John Kerry’s framework proposal. A plan, that according to Charles Jacobs, co-founder of Americans for Peace and Tolerance, “pushes the Jewish state back to the 1967 lines, with land swaps, abandons 25-30% of Jewish ‘settlers’ behind those lines, and cedes or leases to the PA for a dozen or so years the Jordan Valley, long valued by both Labor and Likud as Israel’s protective barrier, without which there will exist an Arab land bridge from Baghdad to the gates of Tel Aviv.”

Then, there is another scenario to be considered… attending the Bar Mitzvah celebration of a mutual acquaintance, both PM Netanyahu and Professor Israel (Robert) Aumann, the recipient of 2005 Nobel Prize in Economics (a prize he shared with Thomas Schelling for their work on conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis), have a discussion.

Netanyahu approaches Aumann, a professor at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, with a request to prepare a scenario in which a war breaks out five years after Israeli forces withdraw from Judea and Samaria (West Bank). Netanyahu urges Aumann to use his vast knowledge in game-theory analysis to prepare a report, which he plans to show Obama in a private meeting.

Professor Aumann provides Netanyahu with a 92-page report, which details the development of operation “Steel Punch,” also known by the people as the “war without Judea and Samaria.” Using data from the Second Lebanon War (2006) and the Gaza War (Cast Lead, 2008-2009), Aumann notes that…almost immediately after statehood, the Palestinians announce a plan for the buildup of an industrial and agricultural infrastructure that requires the aerial shipment and importation of heavy equipment. Soon thereafter, Israel’s intelligence services would discover that along with the importation of “heavy equipment,” sophisticated arms manufacturing equipment is being smuggled in for the construction of missiles of various ranges, armored cars, and explosives.

Three years following the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in 97% of the West Bank territory, including the Gaza Strip and a land bridge that would connect between Gaza and the West Bank, the Palestinians would inaugurate two airports, an international airport somewhere between Ramallah and Nablus, and a domestic airport in Gaza.

Five years following the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, a war against the Jewish State will break out on all fronts: Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank.

The Islamic Republic of Iran, which had signed an agreement with the P5+1 five years earlier, allowing inspection by IAEA inspectors of its nuclear facilities, provides the nascent Palestinian state with the so-called industrial and agricultural “heavy equipment,” that was a mere cover for  arms shipments. Let us recall that Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas), President of the Palestinian Authority, vowed in an interview with the New York Times (February 2, 2014) that “We will be demilitarized.”

The same Iranian regime that would provide “industrial and agricultural heavy equipment,” demands as a quid-pro-quo that at a given signal the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank and Hezbollah in Lebanon launch a massive bombardment of Israel covering the entire length of the country. The ostensible excuse for the war on Israel, as expressed by the Prime Minister of Palestine Marwan Barghouti (currently in Israeli prison), is that Israel failed to carry out its commitments on the “Palestinians right of return.”

Professor Aumann’s report covers the various actions taken by the combatants including the hurried mobilization of the Israeli reserve forces. Fighting occurs between the IDF and Arab-Israeli “Fifth-Columnists” who deliberately block the crossroads on the way to mobilization points. Israeli Arabs openly express their support for the war against Israel in spite of being victimized by the Palestinian heavy bombardment of Israel.

Professor Aumann presents in his report, the balance sheet of the war that lasts a month and a half. Greater Tel Aviv in particular, pays the heaviest price in destruction and casualties as a result of the war. The war does, however bring about full unity between the political Left and Right in Israel. This unity results in a forceful Israeli response. It lifts all restraints from the IDF as Israel faces the possible destruction of its Third Commonwealth. The Palestinians and Palestine pay an even heavier price for their aggression. The loss of life on the Palestinian side is horrendous.

PM Netanyahu, in presenting the report to President Obama says, “My dear friend President Obama, the State of the Jewish People, the State of Israel, where the People of the Book assembled after 2000 years of persecution and exile, are unwilling to step off the pages of history as a defeated nation. We are in opposition to an additional sovereign state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.”

In his article at, titled The Blackmailer Paradox: Game Theory and Negotiations with Arab Countries, Professor Aumann writes: “The political relationship between Israel and Arab countries is conducted according to the principles of this (Blackmailer) paradox. The Arabs (that of course refers to the Palestinians) present rigid and unreasonable opening positions at every negotiation. They convey confidence and assurance in their demands, and make certain to make absolutely clear to Israel that they will never give up on any of these requirements. Absent an alternative, Israel is forced to yield to blackmail due to the perception that it will leave the negotiating room with nothing if it is inflexible.”

PM Netanyahu has choices to make. He will likely press President Obama on stopping Iran’s continued advancement of its nuclear program, and call for sanctions to be strictly maintained. Obama will press back, demanding that Israel comply with Kerry’s framework for peace. Netanyahu will probably accept the ‘framework’ with some reservations. The Palestinians might be persuaded to recognize Israel as the national state of the Jewish People, but will then demand “the right of return” of Palestinian refugees, or alternatively, call for the immediate and total control over the Jordan Valley. Should the Palestinians fully accept the Kerry framework parameters, it is all the more imperative for Netanyahu to present Obama with the Aumann scenario. Israeli governments in the past have rejected U.S. administration pressures and threats when Israel’s vital security interests were imperiled.  PM Netanyahu should do no less.


Don’t miss Jamie Glazov’s video interview with Mudar Zahran, a secular leader of Palestinians in Jordan who has been living in exile in the UK since 2010. He calls out John Kerry on his Mideast “Peace” Plan — and asks why a U.S. Secretary of State is threatening Israel to commit suicide:

To sign up for The Glazov Gang: Click here.

TOPICS: Editorial; Israel; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: iran; israel; lebanon; waronterror

1 posted on 02/17/2014 9:01:04 AM PST by SJackson
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.


Note the phased plan, official PLO policy. Point 3 clearly states there will be no recobnition of Israel, and that there will be no peace. Being adopted in 1974, Judea and Samaria were under Jordanian control, thus the reference to Jordan rather than the West Bank as the staging area for an Arab attack in Point 5. And no, the Jordanian-Palestinian national front whose aim will be to set up in Jordan a democratic national authority isn't referring to the Hashemite monarchy. A new government will be needed, that's why the Palestinians killed the king's grandpop, and tried to subvert his pop's government, resulting in the PLO's expulsion. In fairness to the palestinians, they make no secret of any of this, the west simply doesn't listern.

The PLO's "Phased Plan"

In the October 1973 Yom Kippur War, the Arab states launched a surprise attack against Israel on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar. Once again they tried to eliminate Israel, further motivated this time by the desire to redeem their honor after their major defeat in the 1967 Six-Day War. Though Israel was initially caught off guard, it then regrouped and repelled the Arab attack, but not before incurring heavy casualties.

The war convinced the Arabs that they would not be able to destroy Israel militarily within its post-1967 boundaries. Thus they embarked upon a new three-stage strategy for Israel's destruction, embodied in the PLO's 1974 decision commonly known as the Phased Plan (the text of which is below).

The plan in brief:

  1. Through the "armed struggle" (i.e., terrorism), to establish an "independent combatant national authority" over any territory that is "liberated" from Israeli rule. (Article 2)
  2. To continue the struggle against Israel, using the territory of the national authority as a base of operations. (Article 4)
  3. To provoke an all-out war in which Israel's Arab neighbors destroy it entirely ("liberate all Palestinian territory"). (Article 8)

Today, the Phased Plan remains relevant. Speaking just after the 1993 revelation of the Israel-PLO accord, PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat announced that the historic agreement "will be a basis for an independent Palestinian state in accordance with the Palestine National Council resolution issued in 1974.... The PNC resolution issued in 1974 calls for the establishment of a national authority on any part of Palestinian soil from which Israel withdraws or which is liberated." (Radio Monte Carlo, 1 September 1993)

It is worth noting that the PLO's term for the self-rule council now in place in Gaza and the West Bank is the "Palestinian National Authority," echoing the language of the Phased Plan.

Also note that Articles 5-6 call for a revolution in Jordan to establish a new Jordanian regime which will ally itself with the Palestinian National Authority. Historically, Jordan comprised the bulk of the Palestine territory, and a majority of its residents are of Palestinian origin. The PLO has never recognized the legitimacy of Kingdom of Jordan as a state independent of Palestine.


Political Programme

Adopted at the 12th Session of the Palestinian National Council

Cairo, June 9, 1974

Text of the Phased Plan resolution:

The Palestinian National Council:

On the basis of the Palestinian National Charter and the Political Programme drawn up at the eleventh session, held from January 6-12, 1973; and from its belief that it is impossible for a permanent and just peace to be established in the area unless our Palestinian people recover all their national rights and, first and foremost, their rights to return and to self-determination on the whole of the soil of their homeland; and in the light of a study of the new political circumstances that have come into existence in the period between the Council's last and present sessions, resolves the following:

  1. To reaffirm the Palestine Liberation Organization's previous attitude to Resolution 242, which obliterates the national right of our people and deals with the cause of our people as a problem of refugees. The Council therefore refuses to have anything to do with this resolution at any level, Arab or international, including the Geneva Conference.
  2. The Liberation Organization will employ all means, and first and foremost armed struggle, to liberate Palestinian territory and to establish the independent combatant national authority for the people over every part of Palestinian territory that is liberated. This will require further changes being effected in the balance of power in favour of our people and their struggle.
  3. The Liberation Organization will struggle against any proposal for a Palestinian entity the price of which is recognition, peace, secure frontiers, renunciation of national rights and the deprival of our people of their right to return and their right to self-determination on the soil of their homeland.
  4. Any step taken towards liberation is a step towards the realization of the Liberation Organization's strategy of establishing the democratic Palestinian state specified in the resolutions of previous Palestinian National Councils.
  5. Struggle along with the Jordanian national forces to establish a Jordanian-Palestinian national front whose aim will be to set up in Jordan a democratic national authority in close contact with the Palestinian entity that is established through the struggle.
  6. The Liberation Organization will struggle to establish unity in struggle between the two peoples and between all the forces of the Arab liberation movement that are in agreement on this programme.
  7. In the light of this programme, the Liberation Organization will struggle to strengthen national unity and to raise it to the level where it will be able to perform its national duties and tasks.
  8. Once it is estabished, the Palestinian national authority will strive to achieve a union of the confrontation countries, with the aim of completing the liberation of all Palestinian territory, and as a step along the road to comprehensive Arab unity.
  9. The Liberation Organization will strive to strengthen its solidarity with the socialist countries, and with forces of liberation and progress throughout the world, with the aim of frustration all the schemes of Zionism, reaction and imperialism.
  10. In light of this programme, the leadership of the revolution will determine the tactics which will serve and make possible the realization of these objectives.

The Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization will make every effort to implement this programme, and should a situation arise affecting the destiny and the future of the Palestinian people, the National Assembly will be convened in extraordinary session.

2 posted on 02/17/2014 9:12:17 AM PST by SJackson (the Democrats take back control, we donÂ’t make (this) kind of naked power grab, J Biden)
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To: SJackson

Israel nukes all Ishmael’s offspring ... trust me ... THAT would be a good plan for peace.

3 posted on 02/17/2014 9:30:33 AM PST by knarf (I say things that are true .. I have no proof .. but they're true.)
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To: SJackson

Bibi needs to stop his tactful diplomatic effort at “getting along with Obama/Kerry for the sake of Israel’s American friends” .... and just tell Kerry to shove their “Auschwitz” reduced borders proposal.
Israel can’t give away any more of its land (and ESPECIALLY the two pieces Obama is so desperately trying to seize for his IslamoNazi comrades... the military high ground right in the middle of the country and the border line defense buffer against another big invasion from the east).

The enemy within (America) is very, very dangerous, far more deadly to America (and our allies) than any external foe.

“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear. The traitor is the plague.”—— Marcus Tillius Cicero, speech in the Roman Senate, 58 BCE

4 posted on 02/17/2014 10:33:19 AM PST by faithhopecharity
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
Kerry, according to Israeli sources, is preparing to present the framework for an agreement which would include Palestinian recognition of Israel as the nation state of the Jews, side by side with Israel’s recognition of Palestine as the nation state of the Palestinian... based on the 1967 lines, allowing for land swaps, and taking into consideration demographic changes that have occurred in recent decades.
IOW, absolutely nothing new, and the koranimals have rejected it every single time. Netanyahu needs to put Lurch and Zero on notice that Israel sees no point to negotiations until the nuclear threat posed by Iran is terminated. Thanks SJackson.
5 posted on 02/17/2014 12:34:31 PM PST by SunkenCiv (
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To: SJackson

This is national suicide for Israel. This however, IS, opening the gates wide for Gog-Magog of the book of Ezekiel. Bibi is going to regret this as it is going to cost Israeli lives. However, the muzzie Obama and his lapdog Kerry don’t care. Kerry has his eyes on the Nobel Peace Prize. He knows if he gets this on paper, the Prize is his. From Commie North Vietnamese sympathizer and abetter, who should have be tried for treason, to a Noble winner. Quite the move by the scum Kerry.

6 posted on 02/18/2014 7:08:12 AM PST by RetiredArmy (God's judgment on America is here for us to see. If America does not wake up, it is going to suffer)
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To: SJackson


7 posted on 02/19/2014 9:11:34 AM PST by bayouranger (Those who are anti-islam are a National Security Threat.- J.Brennan CIA Dir. Feb10)
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