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How Likely Are Dems to Lose the Senate?
Real Clear Politics ^ | February 20, 2014 | Sean Trende

Posted on 02/20/2014 5:19:54 AM PST by thackney

A few weeks ago, I produced two Senate analyses. One focused on the relationship between the president’s job approval, the fate of Senate Democrats during the 2010 and 2012 elections, and what that would mean if this relationship continues through 2014. The second looked at Republican vulnerability in 2016 using a similar standard.

The first piece concluded that, based on President Obama’s job approval rating, Democrats have substantial vulnerability in 2014. This vulnerability is deeper than many analysts are willing to consider right now. Over the past two cycles, the president’s job approval has explained 58 percent of the variance in competitive Senate races in any given state. Given Obama’s current weak numbers, this seemingly bodes poorly for Democrats. Remember, the midterm map is the “reddest” Senate map Democrats have had to defend while Obama has been president. Their overexposure makes it something of a perfect storm scenario if things do not improve. This doesn’t mean that the problems are insuperable for Democrats. It simply means that the playing field is stacked heavily against them.

A few weeks ago, I produced two Senate analyses. One focused on the relationship between the president’s job approval, the fate of Senate Democrats during the 2010 and 2012 elections, and what that would mean if this relationship continues through 2014. The second looked at Republican vulnerability in 2016 using a similar standard.

The first piece concluded that, based on President Obama’s job approval rating, Democrats have substantial vulnerability in 2014....

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 113th; 2014issues; 2014midterms; elections; senate

1 posted on 02/20/2014 5:19:54 AM PST by thackney
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To: thackney

answer: more likely than are the Republicans to win the Senate


2 posted on 02/20/2014 5:25:00 AM PST by dontreadthis
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To: thackney

Very likely.


3 posted on 02/20/2014 5:26:49 AM PST by Biggirl (“Go, do not be afraid, and serve”-Pope Francis)
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To: thackney

If two things were not an issue, vote fraud and a complicit GOP leadership, odds would be pretty good.
The GOP leadership is playing for the other team against us at the moment, which throws everything into “iffy” territory.
This should anger people, anger them enough to overwhelm the vote fraud and GOP leadership shenanigans.
I’m hoping it angers people, they need to get angry about this.


4 posted on 02/20/2014 5:27:25 AM PST by Darksheare (Try my coffee, first one's free..... Even robots will kill for it!)
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To: Darksheare

I messed up the cut-n-paste building this thread.

I requested it be deleted and my mulligan is at:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3125017/posts


5 posted on 02/20/2014 5:29:20 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: Darksheare

I’m with Rush...2014 will dwarf 2010.


6 posted on 02/20/2014 5:29:29 AM PST by albie
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To: thackney

Dratsies!
“Scratch on play, redo!”


7 posted on 02/20/2014 5:32:06 AM PST by Darksheare (Try my coffee, first one's free..... Even robots will kill for it!)
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To: albie

I certainly hope so!


8 posted on 02/20/2014 5:32:21 AM PST by Darksheare (Try my coffee, first one's free..... Even robots will kill for it!)
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To: thackney

Highly likely for Dems to lose the senate; unless:

Our side does a horrible job at overseeing the polling stations AND, Eric H0ld3r allows thuggery and malfeasance, AND, our side is stupid enough to announce counts from non-Dem strongholds, allowing Dems/C0mmies to produce their counts at the end when they know how many votes they need to CREATE to win. This CREATE phenomenon is from illegal aliens and dead people voting AND our side NEVER takes it to the streets or public about how MORE THAN NUMBER of registered voters shows up and votes DEM...somehow our side is just fine with this...likely because the dirty truth I’ve said before is the REPe actually likes the profit they make by being in the minority.


9 posted on 02/20/2014 5:32:40 AM PST by CincyRichieRich (Keep your lid on; don't let anyone dump garbage on you.)
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To: albie
I’m with Rush...2014 will dwarf 2010

I'm a skeptic - I've seen the GOP screw it up too many times, and even when they win, they screw it up.
Rush thought Romney would be in the white house right now, too...

10 posted on 02/20/2014 5:33:49 AM PST by grobdriver (Where is Wilson Blair when you need him?)
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To: thackney
Sean Trende spends way too much time with his analysis ....

The gOp needs a net 6 seats to gain control ...

Question: Are the democRATs likely to fare better or worse since November, 2012?

7 States, that even Mitt Romney won in November, 2012 where a DemocRAT incumbent is up for re-election or has already retired (to avoid the inevitable loss) ....

Begich (AK)
Pryor (AR)
Landrieu (LA)
Baucus (MT)
Hagan (NC)
Johnson (SD)
Rockefeller (WV)

11 posted on 02/20/2014 5:34:40 AM PST by Servant of the Cross (the Truth will set you free)
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To: thackney

I think the GOP will win the Senate in 2014 and lose it again in 2016.


12 posted on 02/20/2014 5:41:13 AM PST by DoodleDawg
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To: thackney

As part of a lawsuit settlement with the Democrat Party, the Gutless Old Party agreed to not engage in any voter protection initiatives. Two of the clauses read this way:

(e) refrain from undertaking any ballot security activities in polling places or election districts where the racial or ethnic composition of such districts is a factor in the decision to conduct, or the actual conduct of, such activities there and where a purpose or significant effect of such activities is to deter qualified voters from voting; and the conduct of such activities disproportionately in or directed toward districts that have a substantial proportion of racial or ethnic populations shall be considered relevant evidence of the existence of such a factor and purpose;

(f) refrain from having private personnel deputized as law enforcement personnel in connection with ballot security activities.

http://judicialview.com/Court-Cases/Civil-Procedure/Democratic-National-Committee-v-Republican-National-Committee/10/201975

So yeah, the dems will steal more elections and the GOP will help them do it.


13 posted on 02/20/2014 5:47:21 AM PST by Mechanicos (When did we amend the Constitution for a 2nd Federal Prohibition?)
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To: thackney

The GOP are expert at screwing up a golden opportunity.


14 posted on 02/20/2014 5:49:08 AM PST by G Larry
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To: dontreadthis

agreed- seriously; based on how stupid they are does anyone have any faith in the clowns at the GOPe??


15 posted on 02/20/2014 5:54:29 AM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: thackney

It depends how much crap they can give away and how many people they can bus to the polls.


16 posted on 02/20/2014 5:57:00 AM PST by jersey117
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To: thackney

Just who is going to beat them?

The RINO circular firing squad?

Not to GOP: NOTHING happens unless and until the RINOs are purged.


17 posted on 02/20/2014 6:22:00 AM PST by Flintlock ( islam is a LIE, mohammed was a CRIMINAL, shira is POISON.)
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To: Servant of the Cross

Begich (AK)
Pryor (AR)
Landrieu (LA)
Baucus (MT)
Hagan (NC)
Johnson (SD)
Rockefeller (WV)


I agree all those seats would normally turn over... problem is, I don’t trust the GOP-e not to work behind the scenes to derail the candidacies of conservative nominees.


18 posted on 02/20/2014 6:34:10 AM PST by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
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To: Darksheare

How about good old fashioned ineptness?


19 posted on 02/20/2014 6:36:08 AM PST by Usagi_yo (Standardization is an Evolutionary dead end.)
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To: Usagi_yo

That too.


20 posted on 02/20/2014 6:43:23 AM PST by Darksheare (Try my coffee, first one's free..... Even robots will kill for it!)
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To: grobdriver

You have plenty of reasons to be skeptical. The Republican Party is, and always will be, weak and feckless. It is not the answer.


21 posted on 02/20/2014 6:49:02 AM PST by Starboard
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To: Flintlock

NOTHING happens unless and until the RINOs are purged.

***********
Maybe a couple will lose their seats but a widespread purge is just not going to happen. Too many intrenched interests in the party that control everything.

Being a conservative Republican is like being in a bad marriage and hoping that the other person will change. It is futile.


22 posted on 02/20/2014 6:51:46 AM PST by Starboard
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To: dontreadthis

Unfortunately they need to not just win, that’s a virtual given, they need to get to 67.. and that’s not possible. 8+ is a no brainer, Picking up 22 seats is impossible, even with a full Republican Sweep of all elections, there are only 21 Democratic seats up for re-election.

Control of the senate is a Good step, but we can’t get to 2/3rds even if every single democrat loses, and that’s the only way we have any chance of stopping this guy fully. It is possible that if R’s pick up enough, you could peel off 1 or 2 senators to get 2/3 to override vetos etc... but would rather not rely on that.


23 posted on 02/20/2014 6:59:54 AM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: DoodleDawg
I think the GOP will win the Senate in 2014 and lose it again in 2016.

And in the meantime they will do nothing of use to conservatives.

24 posted on 02/20/2014 10:06:35 AM PST by NewHampshireDuo
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To: NewHampshireDuo
And in the meantime they will do nothing of use to conservatives.

I think that depends on how the election goes. If the old guard like McConnell and Cornyn and Alexander and Graham all survive then no. The GOP will fight amongst itself and the Democrats will sit back and watch.

25 posted on 02/20/2014 10:22:16 AM PST by DoodleDawg
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