Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

How Likely Are Dems to Lose the Senate?
Real Clear Politics ^ | February 20, 2014 | Sean Trende

Posted on 02/20/2014 5:24:45 AM PST by thackney

A few weeks ago, I produced two Senate analyses. One focused on the relationship between the president’s job approval, the fate of Senate Democrats during the 2010 and 2012 elections, and what that would mean if this relationship continues through 2014. The second looked at Republican vulnerability in 2016 using a similar standard.

The first piece concluded that, based on President Obama’s job approval rating, Democrats have substantial vulnerability in 2014. This vulnerability is deeper than many analysts are willing to consider right now. Over the past two cycles, the president’s job approval has explained 58 percent of the variance in competitive Senate races in any given state. Given Obama’s current weak numbers, this seemingly bodes poorly for Democrats. Remember, the midterm map is the “reddest” Senate map Democrats have had to defend while Obama has been president. Their overexposure makes it something of a perfect storm scenario if things do not improve. This doesn’t mean that the problems are insuperable for Democrats. It simply means that the playing field is stacked heavily against them.

The second piece took a somewhat different tack. Instead of just looking at the playing field for 2016, it used that playing field as the basis for a simulation run in a neutral year to help better quantify Republican exposure. It concluded that unless 2016 turned out to be a good Republican year overall, that Republicans would probably have to win 53 or 54 seats in 2014 to feel good about their chances of holding the Senate two years later.

The present article takes the technique used in the second piece and applies it to the playing field described in the first. In other words, this is a “Monte Carlo simulation” to try to better quantify the amount of exposure Democrats are under this time...

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014; elections; news; senate
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-49 next last

1 posted on 02/20/2014 5:24:45 AM PST by thackney
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: dontreadthis; Biggirl

I messed up the first thread and have requested it to be deleted.

This is the replacement.

2 posted on 02/20/2014 5:28:12 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: thackney

I swear, after the past 5 years....I believe that the Party of RATs should be outlawed. Take a page from how Egypt has been dealing with the Muzzie Bro’hood.

3 posted on 02/20/2014 5:32:42 AM PST by Howie66 (John Wayne McCornyn...he's just like US! Honest!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: thackney

....just start calling the RATS office and ask them whe
ither or not they support ODUNGO’S attack on they first amendment
and the thuggish approach to the news outlets. When they say no..tell them they haven’t been seen standing up for the constitution lately and when will they call a press conference?

4 posted on 02/20/2014 5:39:32 AM PST by Doogle (USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: thackney
So we win the Senate this year, then what?

The quisling Republican leadership will say they don't have a veto proof majority, and as a token of "friendship" will recind the nuclear option Komrade Reid put in place last year.

The will then say they are powerless to anything without the Presidency, while savagely attacking all tea party Republicans, and protecting the Clinton's and Obama at every opportunity.

5 posted on 02/20/2014 5:40:24 AM PST by SecondAmendment (Restoring our Republic at 9.8357x10^8 FPS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Howie66
incompetency vs. The failure of Obama Care, Economics, too close to call.
6 posted on 02/20/2014 5:40:28 AM PST by scooby321
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: thackney

Lose the Senate? The United Socialists of America (USA) should lose their assets if not their heads for looting the republic.

Who relegated us, our children and grandchildren (as far as generations can conceive) to debt slavery?

Socialism Is Legal Plunder

But, first things first I suppose...

7 posted on 02/20/2014 5:41:46 AM PST by PGalt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FReepers
Keep FR Alive!

Click The Pic To Donate


8 posted on 02/20/2014 5:45:40 AM PST by DJ MacWoW (The Fed Gov is not one ring to rule them all)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: thackney

-—what with the media propaganda machines completely in left-wing control, the ability of the Demotraitors to steal elections in major states , the apathy of the voters and the incompetence of the Republidum “leadership”, I don’t think there is any possibility of “recapturing” the Senate or even holding the House—

9 posted on 02/20/2014 5:51:01 AM PST by rellimpank (--don't believe anything the media or government says about firearms or explosives--)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: thackney

50-50 in my opinion, the sleazy tactics, voter fraud, entitlement voters, a Democratic controlled media, academia, and entertainment industry have made it next to impossible for Republicans even under the most ideal conditions.

Even if Republicans manage to squeak out a slim majority they still have to deal with a President that will veto everything they send his way, the chance someone will switch parties again, and the total lack of a spine by the establishment GOP.

10 posted on 02/20/2014 5:52:17 AM PST by Carbonsteel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SecondAmendment

“The quisling Republican leadership will say they don’t have a veto proof majority, and as a token of “friendship” will recind the nuclear option Komrade Reid put in place last year.

The will then say they are powerless to anything without the Presidency, while savagely attacking all tea party Republicans, and protecting the Clinton’s and Obama at every opportunity.”

You really think this will happen if Majority Leader Cruz or Lee is at the helm?

11 posted on 02/20/2014 6:02:30 AM PST by bestintxas (Every time a RINO bites the dust a founding father gets his wings.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: All
Vote-crazed Dems 2014 battle plan bravely recognizes the train wreck of Obama/Care. So blitzed-out party operatives have crafted a mind-numbing strategy to try blunting the GOP’s advantage. They plan to tell voters that electing Republicans would only make the O/Care problems worse.

Dems give a crumb to assuage each of their voting blocs---
asserting that under a Republican majority, O/Care would:

<><> cause life-saving prescription prices to rise,

<><> empower greedy insurance companies that once covered them w/ affordable plans,

<><> engender domestic violence, chronic depression, impotency, and acne,

<><> increase union dues, and,

<><> exacerbate foreign policy w/ threats of nuclear war, Mideast violence and a two-state solution.


Everybody knows Obama's botched October healthcare rollout was giving Democrats so much agita, they could hardly keep track of their vast offshore holdings. Millions could have been lost into the pockets of snarky investment counselors "aggregating the numbers," but Democrats were so besieged by falling poll numbers, they would never even know it.


So what happened was the compassionate White House graciously sent its chief of staff Denis McDonough to hold an unpublicized meeting with Sen. Michael Bennet (DIM-Colo), chairman of the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.

Alas, it was not pretty---Denis was met w/ Democrats' anger and anxiety that O/Care’s costly train wreck rollout could actually cost their party its majority at midterms.

Denis and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chair Bennet discussed what the helpful White House could possibly do for vulnerable Senate Democrats.

Talk revolved around Democrats developing a "stronger relationship" with the White House. But this cockamamie idea was quickly discarded. After all, Democrats reasoned, who would believe a ditzy story like that...other than the brain dead MSM.

Democrats whined that Obama was not sympathetic enough to their plight. After the Republican-led government shutdown, Dems had been super-confident they would retain the Senate, maybe even regain the House......but, that optimism vanished as O/Care problems kept mounting and multiplying.

Speaker wannabe Nancy Pelosi pursed her lips and disconsolately went back to sucking-up everything in sight.

COS Denis valiantly tried to calm ballistic Senators, saying off-the-record: “I know these guys are nervous as hell. I mean, all of their jobs are on the line, because Obamacare is the only thing making the biggest political waves. It’s a nightmare.”


WATTA RELIEF--DEMOCRATS COME UP WITH THE ONLY WORKABLE SOLUTION Obama recently announced the White House's 2014 Senate strategy: "Keep Obama away." The extensive midterm campaign strategy is built around one unavoidable fact: Hardly any candidates in the most competitive states want President Barack Obama anywhere near them on the campaign trail.


Poster cackles---hums theme from "Jaws."

12 posted on 02/20/2014 6:07:31 AM PST by Liz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: All
Some of the deluded Democrats are going to great lengths to hide their involvement with the O/Care debacle, thinking they will not have to face the music.....(the lovely sounds of a funeral dirge on election day).

Chances are, we can safely make the funeral arrangements for vote-crazed Sen. Mark Udall (Dem-Colo)

Facing a tough reelection this year, Udall was nailed on tape echoing the "keep your plan" Big Lie, b/c some 330,000 Coloradans received cancelation notices....cancellations sap-happy Udall promised they wouldn’t.

Udall’s crazed response was to lean on state insurance regulators to change their numbers by changing their vocabulary. He argued plans shouldn’t be counted as canceled if a person was eligible to buy a pricier ACA compliant plan.

The insurance regulator resisted Udall’s psychotic arguments.

Then things got interesting. obtained and reported on internal state emails of insurance official, Jo Donlin, stating the deranged Udall wanted to “trash” the state’s numbers....

Fearing he'd lose his seat, vote-crazed Udall contacted her repeatedly, and when she refused to bend, she received a “very hostile” call from Udall’s chief of staff (maybe more like a "threat"?).

Udall’s obsessed interference prompted demands for more information and for an investigation into his twisted conduct.

Almost instantly, Colorado’s Department of Regulatory Affairs, which oversees the Division of Insurance, issued a statement claiming a "neutral and objective panel" investigated the matter and determined "Udall’s office did nothing improper and there was no intimidation."

(waiting for hysterical laughter to die down)

NOW FOR THE GOOD NEWS Absolving deranged Senator Udall of culpability is the exact same MO used right before NJ Sen Torricelli was forced out of office.

13 posted on 02/20/2014 6:13:20 AM PST by Liz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: thackney

It doesn’t matter, because the new boss is the same as the old boss. F@$# all of them.

14 posted on 02/20/2014 6:15:21 AM PST by Dick Vomer (democrats are like flies, whatever they don't eat they sh#t on.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: thackney

To summarize, IF the President’s job approval rating remains in the low 40s, Democrats will lose 10 to 14 seats. This will not only mean the Republicans will win control of the Senate, it means they will be in good shape to retain the Senate in 2016.

Even if the President’s job approval rating rises to the upper 40s, the Republicans will win 6 to 12 seats and control of the Senate. The Senate might then be up for grabs in 2016.

Translation: The Democrats are in bad shape. Even if the President’s job approval rating improves, they will probably lose three open seats in Red States (MT, SD and WV). Their incumbents may also lose in four other Red States (AK, AR, LA and NC).

If the President’s job approval rating doesn’t improve, Democrats may also lose seats in four Purple States (CO, IA, MI and NH). That could be a loss of eleven seats.

As to how the Republicans might pick up fourteen seats, think MN, OR and VA. Incumbents in these state might lose in spite of their supposed strengths (Warner in VA) and/or supposed weaknesses of the Republicans (MN and OR).

These prognostications are not mere academic exercises. The Democrats and Republicans are, right now, thinking about where they will put their resources. Most importantly, do the Democrats simply write-off their incumbents in Red States and focus their resources on their incumbents in Purple States? You can be sure that each Red State Democratic Senator is going to argue that they can win in what looks to be a bad year because of unique circumstances in their state.

From our perspective, the dope is this: we will win races from city alderman and county commissioner to U.S. Senator that we would not normally expect to be competitive. We have to impress onto voters that our flat-lined economy and the uber disaster that is Obamacare have to be addressed right now. This is why we need large majorities in every level of government. Yes, our country is at stake. But, this stuff is real.

The solvency of Social Security and Medicare, the prospects for our adult children who have been postponing family formation for lack of good full-time jobs with benefits, our working families that haven’t had a real pay raise in more than a decade now, and the collapse of our health care system as far as tens of millions of people are concerned, who have lost their insurance policies, their doctors and even, in a growing number of places, their hospitals. These all hang in the balance.

Oh, check it out, the economy has slowed from Slurpy speed to molasses speed. The President’s job approval rating is not going up any time soon.

15 posted on 02/20/2014 6:16:34 AM PST by Redmen4ever
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: thackney

What difference does it make? Most politicians are corrupt, incompetent, greedy, self-serving, ignorant, un-American and to hell with us.

16 posted on 02/20/2014 6:19:07 AM PST by mulligan (I)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mulligan
What difference does it make? Most politicians are corrupt...

So you agree that not all are? Isn't that where we need to make a difference?

17 posted on 02/20/2014 6:20:38 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Dick Vomer

Do you vote?

18 posted on 02/20/2014 6:21:09 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: thackney

I remember those same big expectations of a GOP takeover in 2012, because the dems were defending nearly three times as many seats... Didn’t work out too well... the dems actually gained two.

If all goes relatively smoothly for the GOP and its nominees don’t implode their candidacies with asinine comments about subject matter of which they have no understanding (read: Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock), they should be able to pull out a gain of +3 or (at the outside) +4. I’d be very surprised if they were to get to the 50 level.

19 posted on 02/20/2014 6:29:53 AM PST by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: thackney

Hate to say it but with mutts like Rove ,Boehner, Cantor, Priebus, McCain, et al. so prevalent in GOP politics, the pubbies will blow it. Until the realize that the vast majority of their base is fed up with their “can’t we all get along” attitude nothing will change. The spineless, gutless GOP is afraid of Obama, the RATS and their own shadow.

20 posted on 02/20/2014 6:40:28 AM PST by kenmcg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-49 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794 is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson