Skip to comments.Odds of GOP taking back the Senate: 80+ percent?
Posted on 02/20/2014 5:21:13 PM PST by SeekAndFind
A read well worth your time from Sean Trende on another slow-except-for-Ukraine news day. How does he come up with a probability like that? By using an indicator that’s helped predict midterm elections in the past — namely, the president’s job approval on election day — and then running simulations a la Nate Silver for various different approval ratings to see how many seats the GOP could expect to gain (or even lose).
The result: Democratic seppuku.
The Senate’s 55/45 right now, which means Obama’s approval rating could rise as high as 49 percent and the GOP’s low-end expectation would still be six seats, flipping the chamber. According to Gallup’s latest job approval figures today, O’s back to 46 percent — the highest he’s been in ages but still a number that could plausibly produce a double-digit pick-up for Republicans. In fact, just to put in perspective for you how heavy a lift this is for Democrats, here’s RCP’s graph of Obama’s job approval for the past two and a half years, since July 2011:
The only time he reaches 50 percent is right after election day 2012. He managed to stay above water for a few months afterward, during his post-election honeymoon period, but he was break-even at best before then and, starting with the Snowden revelations last summer, lately it’s been nothing but a steady decline. All of which is to say, barring an amazing turnaround for ObamaCare or some sort of unforeseen crisis a la Christie’s handling of Hurricane Sandy, there’s no reason to expect O’s job approval to soar over the next nine months. It would defy more than two years of precedent. There’s no historical reason to expect it either; there was a rash of articles last year after Obama’s numbers started to crumble noting that once a second-term president’s job approval lands in the crapper, it usually doesn’t make it out again. Maybe O’s rating will inch up a bit, or maybe it won’t once the next round of ObamaCare chaos begins. Given that he’s had a ceiling of about 48-49 percent since mid-2011 (again, except for his election honeymoon), which way would you bet? Follow the link up top and scroll down to Trende’s bell-curve graph of likely Democratic losses and you’ll see there’s a greater than 80 percent chance that they lose six seats or more. In theory, at least: In practice, it may be that O’s low approval rating makes a blue-state Senate race surprisingly tight but doesn’t quite push the Republican challenger over the top against the Democratic incumbent.
One more thing. Trende’s last piece of election forecasting noted that the 2016 Senate cycle looks to be as difficult for Republicans as this one is for Democrats, meaning that the GOP needs to pile up wins this November to buffer itself against heavy losses two years from now. According to that forecast, Democrats would have a better than even chance of retaking the Senate in 2016 if the GOP wins eight seats or fewer this time even if a Republican takes the White House in 2016. That means the GOP needs to win nine this year to be somewhat safe, and according to Trende’s table above, that could require an Obama approval rating of around 44 percent on election day. Obama’s approval rating today, per the RCP average: 44.4 percent. Hmmmmmmm.
If Romney’s not running it could happen...
Pray that they get enough to successfully impeach.
Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to screw things up.
I prefer getting rid of ALL elitists in the Senate this time around and populating the Senate with the most sincerely conservative candidates to be found. Don’t care if they have a nice suit or can speak eloquently or not. Each new or incumbent conservative-minded Senator only needs to learn/know how to cast Senate votes (on behalf of all American conservatives) and show up ready for work everyday.
Sorry—Not buying it.
The revelation that the GOP-e supports the IRS going after private citizens with whom they disagree really tore it for me.
It will be a cold day in Hell before I support another establishment GOP candidate. I may even vote for a DemocRAT—At least then I know what I’m getting.
Exactly. With the likes of McCain, Murkowski, Collins and, plenty more, will it really make a difference?
Will the GOP have the balls to run ads tying all the democrats to Zerobama’s failures? Do they dare hit hard and run effective ads? If they do, the individual candidates will reap the benefits and we’ll see a big shift. If the national GOP decides to try to look “nice” by not attacking, we’ll pick up some seats and promptly give most back in 2 years.
“Hey Reince Priebus. Fight the Democrats like they’re holding a beloved family member hostage! No pussyfooting around and compromising! They are destroying our country and must be driven from office in large numbers, then the replacement Republicans MUST be committed to repealing 0bamacare and shrinking the size and reach of the federal leviathan.”
if the GOP takes 10 seats, i am pretty sure most bars will offer free drinks till 1am.
Or enough to pass Amnesty and have Obama sign it, right?
I won’t be voting GOP at all unless it’s Ted Cruz, and that’s about it.
The (D)'s who read what you post just high-5 each other and congratulate themselves on another "Mission Accomplished."
Sarah Palin would never give that kind of advice. Oddly enough, she owes her political kick start on the national stage to none other than the detestable John McCain.
So, genius, should she have refused to run with him, and instead cheered for Obama because McCain is a Rino's RINO in 2008? Or was McCain's candidacy an avenue Palin used to forge her own platform for conservatism?
She didn't advocate voting for the (D) to flush McCain in 2010 either, did she? For better or worse, McCain's constituents chose him over Hayworth in the primary. She did better: she was effective where she knew she could be: she endorsed Lee, Cruz, and Paul. And they all won. And they know why.
Dems are playing you for a fool, all they way to election victory. You have surrendered field advantage even before the fight. You make as much sense as those during the Vietnam era who recommended destroying the village allegedly in order to save it.
As much as you parade your supposed disdain for RINOs just know that real conservatives never vote for a (D) in the general.
Big whoop - exchange demons for snakes (and stupid snakes at that). When Christian Conservatives take over I’ll get excited.
“Dems are playing you for a fool, all the way to election victory. You have surrendered field advantage even before the fight. You make as much sense as those during the Vietnam era who recommended destroying the village allegedly in order to save it.”
Sad but true. I see more and more such posters here — and can’t help but wonder about whether they are “agent provocateurs” or “useful idiots” — much as I really try to not insult other posters, but it’s hard to think of another explanation, when they actually express that they prefer Democrats, even after seeing what Obama has been doing to the country.
Very easy to insult someone when you don’t have to say it to their face, isn’t it?
Tell me one thing, brave boy, just one thing, the Republicans have done to counter what Obama is doing to this country.
After the media tells the low info voters that the republicans have made contact with space aliens to take away womens access to the birth control pill, the democrats will have no problem keeping the senate
I think republican ads should look like news stories and run during the networks news shows. The sheeple would think it was just the news back on. i mean use a very similar backdrop with announcer on each network. “breaking news this just in (insert democrat a$$hole name) voted for the health care reform act and now it is taking away jobs in local market (insert local market name)
Never underestimate the power of staying home. They allowed Obama to win the last two elections. Makes one wonder what kind of death wish these folks harbor.
You’re not giving the GOP the credit they deserve.
They can screw up a bowling ball with a rubber mallet.
They will find a way to lose in 2014.
You are the one who declared your intention to vote for the Democrats, while proclaiming yourself to be a conservative.
Given that, my two possibilities were the only ones that could explain that intention.
Pray that they get enough to successfully impeach.
Well, a minor correction here: The House Impeaches; the Senate votes on whether or not to convict. If I’m not mistaken, the GOP had control of the Senate when Bill Clinton was impeached and they REFUSED to convict. Someone correct me if I’m wrong.
Will the GOP have the balls to run ads tying all the democrats to Zerobamas failures? Do they dare hit hard and run effective ads?
If they don’t, the independent PACs will run the ads for them. But, yeah; I think they will.
Well, since you would vote for Ted Cruz, apparently you live in Texas. Please consider voting for Dwayne Stockman in the GOP Primary, March 4th, to help get John Cornhole in a run-off.
No...GOPe had the keys to the car from 2001-2006, and they ran it into the ditch.
I know you meant to say Dwayne Stovall...lol. I like Stockman's spirit, but he's been too flaky for me.
OMG...YES! You are right. I meant Dwayne Stovall. Yes; Stockman is flaky. He was my Congressman two times and I am NOT voting for Stockman.
I’d vote for him for president.
I love in Florida, not Texas. To further do my part I will be voting out lightweight dunce Marco Rubio just as soon as I can.
I still think that Cornyn can be forced into a runoff.