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How Likely Are Democrats to Lose the Senate?
Real Clear Politics ^ | February 20, 2014 | Sean Trende

Posted on 02/20/2014 8:32:22 PM PST by neverdem

A few weeks ago, I produced two Senate analyses. One focused on the relationship between the president’s job approval, the fate of Senate Democrats during the 2010 and 2012 elections, and what that would mean if this relationship continues through 2014. The second looked at Republican vulnerability in 2016 using a similar standard.

The first piece concluded that, based on President Obama’s job approval rating, Democrats have substantial vulnerability in 2014. This vulnerability is deeper than many analysts are willing to consider right now. Over the past two cycles, the president’s job approval has explained 58 percent of the variance in competitive Senate races in any given state. Given Obama’s current weak numbers, this seemingly bodes poorly for Democrats. Remember, the midterm map is the “reddest” Senate map Democrats have had to defend while Obama has been president. Their overexposure makes it something of a perfect storm scenario if things do not improve. This doesn’t mean that the problems are insuperable for Democrats. It simply means that the playing field is stacked heavily against them.

The second piece took a somewhat different tack. Instead of just looking at the playing field for 2016, it used that playing field as the basis for a simulation run in a neutral year to help better quantify Republican exposure. It concluded that unless 2016 turned out to be a good Republican year overall, that Republicans would probably have to win 53 or 54 seats in 2014 to feel good about their chances of holding the Senate two years later.

The present article takes the technique used in the second piece and applies it to the playing field described in the first. In other words, this is a “Monte Carlo simulation” to try to better quantify the amount of exposure Democrats are under this time...

(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 02/20/2014 8:32:22 PM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem

The odds would be better if the RINOS would stop kneecapping our candidates.


2 posted on 02/20/2014 8:32:53 PM PST by Viennacon (M)
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To: Viennacon

Was about to say something similar. If the GOP quit playing Russian Roulette with itself, it could capitalize on this Democrat collapse quite deftly. Even WITHOUT Tea Party candidates. I think they don’t know what they would do with themselves without Democrats to blame for something.


3 posted on 02/20/2014 8:37:22 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

And just for good measure, they are now getting their troll in-law Michael Patrick Laehy to trash Bevin on Breitbart.


4 posted on 02/20/2014 8:38:35 PM PST by Viennacon (M)
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To: Viennacon

Of course the GOP will say the same thing, if only these “extremists” like Cruz would just shut up and let them run candidates that Smart People like Karl Rove say can win.


5 posted on 02/20/2014 8:44:50 PM PST by bigbob (The best way to get a bad law repealed is to enforce it strictly. Abraham Lincoln)
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To: neverdem

I bet the democrats will pull out all the stops and make the 2012 fraud look tiny in comparison. They know they are very close to the police state they want and will do anything to bring it about.


6 posted on 02/20/2014 8:45:34 PM PST by minnesota_bound
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To: minnesota_bound

If their whole edifice doesn’t collapse first. Get overpromised LIV’s angry at you, enough to accept the Democrat bus rides and then vote Republican, and you’re courting your own demise.


7 posted on 02/20/2014 8:48:52 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)
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To: neverdem

With RINO douches like Dick Lugar and John Warner sending thousands to DEMOCRAT Senate candidiates, one can only wonder how many more rich RINOs behind the scenes are working to scuttle Conservatives (and thus a GOP takeover of the Senate).


8 posted on 02/20/2014 8:50:49 PM PST by AuditTheFed
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To: AuditTheFed

Must be some way to educate the LIV’s that you spell “vengeance” as “Republican.”


9 posted on 02/20/2014 8:53:58 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck; Viennacon
There is no defeat that RINOpublicans cannot snatch from the jaws of victory.
10 posted on 02/20/2014 8:54:52 PM PST by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: Navy Patriot

Well, the GOP is a shadow of what it used to be.

Back when Republicans knew they were supposed to be Republicans, you could count even on the Rockefeller ones to be somewhat loyal.

The only reason the GOP has a chance is because the Democrats are an even deeper shadow. Even their liberal redistributionism has run out of real stuff to redistribute.

I’d say yeah, why not target the LIV, and that with stuff that is almost ridiculously childlike. Tell them that the farmer man who is feeding them through their LINK cards is supported by the GOP and being attacked by the Democrat. That’s the level at which they would care. And you don’t NEED the mainstream media to do it... they are only a hindrance.


11 posted on 02/20/2014 8:58:32 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

That’s the best marketing idea I’ve heard in awhile. I spell it Mike Pence!


12 posted on 02/20/2014 8:58:52 PM PST by enduserindy (A painted trash can is still a trash can.)
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To: neverdem

I have no faith in the government to hold and conduct an honest election..


13 posted on 02/20/2014 9:20:54 PM PST by cardinal4
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To: neverdem

Let’s go for the Gold -15 or more (if possible).


14 posted on 02/20/2014 9:21:55 PM PST by JSDude1 (Defeat Hagan, elect a Constutional Conservative: Dr. Greg Brannon!)
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To: neverdem

Nice Tale.... however; which overlooks that the voting system is compromised..
You can vote anyway you want but scripted programmed results will happen..

Amazing how ALL conservative candidates were rejected some very harshly.. in 2012 republican primarys..
AND a KNOWN democrat shill was selected(Myth Romney).. very strange..

Especially right after the 2010 elections..


15 posted on 02/20/2014 9:23:34 PM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: neverdem

It’s about 55% they will lose control to the GOP. Quite frankly, I could give two hoots about 2014. I’m much more worried about the bloodbath the GOP is looking at in 2016.


16 posted on 02/20/2014 9:37:01 PM PST by RIghtwardHo
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To: neverdem

If GOP takes the senate, what are the chances they’ll actually repeal Obamacare? And secure the border?

If the White House is occupied by Cruz, pretty good. If its occupied by just about anyone else, not good.


17 posted on 02/20/2014 10:12:51 PM PST by marron
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To: neverdem

The Democrats are going to lose big this next election, voters are going to remember their lies about Obamacare.


18 posted on 02/20/2014 10:20:06 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
It concluded that unless 2016 turned out to be a good Republican year overall, that Republicans would probably have to win 53 or 54 seats in 2014 to feel good about their chances of holding the Senate two years later.
Thanks neverdem. Best scenario for the country would be [redacted by SunkenCiv] before 2016, or better yet, right after the Demwit nominating convention in 2016.
19 posted on 02/20/2014 10:23:45 PM PST by SunkenCiv (http://www.freerepublic.com/~mestamachine/)
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To: hosepipe
AND a KNOWN democrat shill was selected(Myth Romney).. very strange..

That might explain it.

The Case of the Missing White Voters, Revisited

Same author

20 posted on 02/20/2014 10:41:02 PM PST by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: JSDude1

A little analogy here. The U.S. women hockey team decided to play prevent defense, up 2 to 0 with four minutes left in the third period. This is what the GOPe is doing and we know how that worked out. Bad news for us f they don’t fight back.


21 posted on 02/21/2014 12:30:05 AM PST by DISCO
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To: hosepipe
You can vote anyway you want but scripted programmed results will happen..

Been saying that for years. There is no way that the Dimmies would be setting such precedent if they though they had a chance of losing the Senate.

22 posted on 02/21/2014 1:02:45 AM PST by itsahoot (It is not so much that history repeats, but that human nature does not change.)
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To: fortheDeclaration
The Democrats are going to lose big this next election, voters are going to remember their lies about Obamacare.

Is this the same post you used last election?

23 posted on 02/21/2014 1:03:48 AM PST by itsahoot (It is not so much that history repeats, but that human nature does not change.)
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To: neverdem
Interesting essay, but the author neglects three key points:

(1) Since 2012, Democrats have registered another 1 million Socialist immigrants, and the GOP has lost a couple hundred thousand voters because of the birth-death imbalance.

(2) The author assumes that Democrats will fail to turn out their voting base, even though the Democrat Party is totally focused on 2014 turn out.

(3) 80% of ObamaCare enrollees have signed up for free Medicaid or heavily subsidized policies. Since the GOP has no intention of repealing O-Care, and since the GOP has proposed no serious alternative to O-Care, why does the GOP think this issue will hurt Democrats?

I'm sticking to my 2014 prediction:

We gain 2 seats in the Senate.

We lose several seats in the House.

24 posted on 02/21/2014 1:06:29 AM PST by zeestephen
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To: neverdem

Part of it depends on whether or not the democrats play dirty or semi-fair.


25 posted on 02/21/2014 3:47:58 AM PST by RWB Patriot ("My ability is a value that must be earned and I don't recognize anyone's need as a claim on me.")
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To: fortheDeclaration

“The Democrats are going to lose big this next election, voters are going to remember their lies about Obamacare.”

I hope so, but so many people respond to nonsense propaganda (”war on women” and such) that I no longer assume anything. Obama’s re-election was a frightening example of what propaganda can do; Americans were worse off by every measure, and the incompetent token won anyway.


26 posted on 02/21/2014 3:54:03 AM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: itsahoot
Yes, and I also said it in 2010 when the GOP did win big-or did you forget that?

Many Conservatives are the most defeatist people I have ever seen.

27 posted on 02/21/2014 4:14:49 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: minnesota_bound

I bet the out in the open take over of the media is one of the facets of their plan to win in November.
That and amnesty.


28 posted on 02/21/2014 4:15:07 AM PST by Texas resident
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To: kearnyirish2

If we had a real Conservative running for President, we would have run that election.


29 posted on 02/21/2014 4:15:26 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration

“If we had a real Conservative running for President, we would have run that election.”

Probably, but there doesn’t seem to be enough conservatives to get one through the primaries. As long as Republicans let the leftist media determine their game plan, I’m not holding my breath...


30 posted on 02/21/2014 4:17:13 AM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: kearnyirish2

Agreed! We keep letting the Establishment GOP divide our vote looking for the ‘perfect’ Conservative candidate-he doesn’t exist.


31 posted on 02/21/2014 4:26:26 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: neverdem

Increasingly Progressive Electorate + Ballots Found In The Trunk At The Last Minute + Military Ballots Left In The Trunk At The Last Minute = Progressive Victory.

(Not to mention dead people voting, people carrying night sticks at polling places, Mickey and Minnie Mouse registering....)

IMHO


32 posted on 02/21/2014 4:41:34 AM PST by ripley
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Most seem to focus on the GOP needing to welcome in the TEA party genre of candidate or belief system.

It's the voters that need to vote in anyone GOP, regardless of the GOP standing on the issues, then once in power change the GOP from the inside out. As long as the Democrats have power the GOP AND the TEA party will have none. Voters need to bite the bullet and vote AGAINST Democrats instead of voting FOR either Republicans or TEA party candidates. Sux but that's the way of the world of numbers. Again, the GOP can be gutted from the inside out once they get back into power, back toward Constitutional constructionist principles.

33 posted on 02/21/2014 4:54:01 AM PST by USCG SimTech (Honored to serve since '71)
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To: fortheDeclaration

If we had a real Conservative running for President, we would have run that election.
= = = = = = = = = = = = = =
‘Problem’ goes back (full bore) to Clinton’s 2nd term.
“We” ran Bob Dole more for ‘he is a good guy and it is his turn’.
I can imagine with a good, viable candidate enough D’s would have crossed over as they were disgusted with Clinton’s shenanigans.
Scary part about Bush II the likes of algore very nearly walked away with that election.
BUT his spending and definitely ‘misusing’ the opportunity to do ‘real change’ with an R Presidency, R Senate and R House - may have turned a lot or R’s to vote for ANYONE decent, luckily ‘they’ ran JF’nK, and he lost.

Team Romney and the RNC virtually destroyed the other R’s with the tenacity of a Pit Bull but turned into Lap Dogs when he ‘won’ the nomination and they apparently didn’t dare ‘lay a glove’ on BO.

That is reminiscent of Romney in his Senate race to unseat T Kennedy....had a double digit lead LATE in the race, then basically morphed into Teddy Boy - then, mysteriously, ended up Guv.....Wonder what that cost the Kennedy dynasty?

Notice I didn’t even mention the mcclame fiasco - he was getting his hat handed to him until Palin came along, THEN she ‘stole the thunder’ - definitely was the perfect foil for BO - but mclame camp and RNC were hell bent on destroying Palin.....

Guess they figure no one would ever vote a Black guy into office, much less a Black guy with a ‘funny’ name.

IMNSHO the Limbaugh ‘Operation Chaos’ designed to oust Hillary was more that RL basically had the same ‘thought’ that a Black guy with a ‘funny name’ would be lucky to get the D primary, not even thinking of him winning the ‘Big Prize’.


34 posted on 02/21/2014 5:32:26 AM PST by xrmusn (6/98 --When you have them by the short hairs, the minds and hearts soon follow.)
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To: minnesota_bound

California wants to break into 6 parts.

That would give the Dems another 8-10 Senators.

Just great!!


35 posted on 02/21/2014 9:25:29 AM PST by ridesthemiles
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To: itsahoot

Been saying that for years.


I mean really a President that BRAGS he will make gasoline much more expensive AND STILL gets elected?...

There much more evil afoote’ than the normal evil..
This doesnt compute... normally this would kill any candidancy..
The voting booths are INDEED RIGGED..


36 posted on 02/21/2014 11:05:24 AM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: fortheDeclaration

The Democrats are going to lose big this next election, voters are going to remember their lies about Obamacare.


BOY!.... are YOU in for a surprise...
It’s not who votes that counts BUT him who counts the votes..


37 posted on 02/21/2014 11:10:02 AM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: hosepipe

And they can’t cheat if it isn’t close.


38 posted on 02/21/2014 1:18:52 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration

And they can’t cheat if it isn’t close.


They WILL cheat even then...
If the vote is close.... THE END RESULT MAY NOT BE..

What turnip truck did you fall off of?..
Some precincts may be “fairly” honest..... BUT... Most will not be..
Especially in the Northeast.. and Left Coast.. but not only there..

What is it about NO VOTER I.D.. “laws” that gets past you...
Knock Knock.... Anybody in there?..


39 posted on 02/21/2014 2:02:26 PM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: hosepipe
You do remember we won the House in 2010?

No one is talking about the Northeast or West Coast states, which are heavily 'blue'.

40 posted on 02/21/2014 9:44:57 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: hosepipe
The point was the cheating won't matter if the vote isn't close, and it won't be.

Historically, all Presidents do very poorly in their 6th year elections.

The only question is how poorly are the Democrats going to do.

41 posted on 02/22/2014 1:59:56 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration

You do remember we won the House in 2010?


Do you remember what happened in the 2012 republican primary’s?..
Even the republican primary vote was tainted.. i.e. CORRUPT..

How could a known in your face democrat sympathizer get chosen?.. after the 2010 elections..

Obviously 2010 was a mistake(by democrats) remedied by 2012..
The selection of Myth Romney was a “TELL” of the voting system..
Even in the republican primary’s..

AND.............. do you think the success of 2012 by democrats will NOT be capitalized on in 2014 and 2016?..
There will NOT be anymore 150% of the vote in certain precincts anymore..
That’s no doubt been remedied as well..

I realize YOU(most) republicans refuse to face this.. BUT
THAT is WHY? they will be successful..


42 posted on 02/22/2014 2:36:21 PM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: hosepipe
Yes, that is a problem with the Republican primary system, which will have to be dealt with in 2016.

That won't be an issue in 2014, with Obama having low poll numbers and the American People angry at the way the nation is headed.

So, no, they aren't going to be successful, they will lose the Senate and will not regain the House.

Even in 2012 the Democrats did very poorly at the State level.

Obama had no coattails.

So, stop acting like the Democrats are unbeatable. they aren't, and they know it, even if you don't.

43 posted on 02/22/2014 3:08:20 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: neverdem
Not very, if McConnell leads that as well as he did last time.

-PJ

44 posted on 02/22/2014 3:10:34 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: fortheDeclaration

So, stop acting like the Democrats are unbeatable. they aren’t, and they know it, even if you don’t.


Hanging on to the very end........... eh!...
Even when they come to your door you will be shouting about your rights..

Deadly optimism.. until they threaten your family and you comply..
You know cave.. tail between legs, give in, punk out..


45 posted on 02/22/2014 3:21:21 PM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: HiTech RedNeck
If the GOP quit playing Russian Roulette with itself...

It's actually worse than that. In true Russian Roulette, there is a revolver present, with one in six chambers being loaded. Therefore, there is a large percentage that the hammer is going to fall on an empty chamber and the shooter saved from death by acute lead poisoning. But the GOP seems to be using a semiauto for their suicides and that's a guaranteed result lacking some sort of firearms defect.

46 posted on 02/28/2014 8:40:45 AM PST by ExSoldier (Stand up and be counted... OR LINE UP AND BE NUMBERED...)
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