Skip to comments.How Likely Are Democrats to Lose the Senate?
Posted on 02/20/2014 8:32:22 PM PST by neverdem
A few weeks ago, I produced two Senate analyses. One focused on the relationship between the presidents job approval, the fate of Senate Democrats during the 2010 and 2012 elections, and what that would mean if this relationship continues through 2014. The second looked at Republican vulnerability in 2016 using a similar standard.
The first piece concluded that, based on President Obamas job approval rating, Democrats have substantial vulnerability in 2014. This vulnerability is deeper than many analysts are willing to consider right now. Over the past two cycles, the presidents job approval has explained 58 percent of the variance in competitive Senate races in any given state. Given Obamas current weak numbers, this seemingly bodes poorly for Democrats. Remember, the midterm map is the reddest Senate map Democrats have had to defend while Obama has been president. Their overexposure makes it something of a perfect storm scenario if things do not improve. This doesnt mean that the problems are insuperable for Democrats. It simply means that the playing field is stacked heavily against them.
The second piece took a somewhat different tack. Instead of just looking at the playing field for 2016, it used that playing field as the basis for a simulation run in a neutral year to help better quantify Republican exposure. It concluded that unless 2016 turned out to be a good Republican year overall, that Republicans would probably have to win 53 or 54 seats in 2014 to feel good about their chances of holding the Senate two years later.
The present article takes the technique used in the second piece and applies it to the playing field described in the first. In other words, this is a Monte Carlo simulation to try to better quantify the amount of exposure Democrats are under this time...
(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...
The odds would be better if the RINOS would stop kneecapping our candidates.
Was about to say something similar. If the GOP quit playing Russian Roulette with itself, it could capitalize on this Democrat collapse quite deftly. Even WITHOUT Tea Party candidates. I think they don’t know what they would do with themselves without Democrats to blame for something.
And just for good measure, they are now getting their troll in-law Michael Patrick Laehy to trash Bevin on Breitbart.
Of course the GOP will say the same thing, if only these “extremists” like Cruz would just shut up and let them run candidates that Smart People like Karl Rove say can win.
I bet the democrats will pull out all the stops and make the 2012 fraud look tiny in comparison. They know they are very close to the police state they want and will do anything to bring it about.
If their whole edifice doesn’t collapse first. Get overpromised LIV’s angry at you, enough to accept the Democrat bus rides and then vote Republican, and you’re courting your own demise.
With RINO douches like Dick Lugar and John Warner sending thousands to DEMOCRAT Senate candidiates, one can only wonder how many more rich RINOs behind the scenes are working to scuttle Conservatives (and thus a GOP takeover of the Senate).
Must be some way to educate the LIV’s that you spell “vengeance” as “Republican.”
Well, the GOP is a shadow of what it used to be.
Back when Republicans knew they were supposed to be Republicans, you could count even on the Rockefeller ones to be somewhat loyal.
The only reason the GOP has a chance is because the Democrats are an even deeper shadow. Even their liberal redistributionism has run out of real stuff to redistribute.
I’d say yeah, why not target the LIV, and that with stuff that is almost ridiculously childlike. Tell them that the farmer man who is feeding them through their LINK cards is supported by the GOP and being attacked by the Democrat. That’s the level at which they would care. And you don’t NEED the mainstream media to do it... they are only a hindrance.
That’s the best marketing idea I’ve heard in awhile. I spell it Mike Pence!
I have no faith in the government to hold and conduct an honest election..
Let’s go for the Gold -15 or more (if possible).
Nice Tale.... however; which overlooks that the voting system is compromised..
You can vote anyway you want but scripted programmed results will happen..
Amazing how ALL conservative candidates were rejected some very harshly.. in 2012 republican primarys..
AND a KNOWN democrat shill was selected(Myth Romney).. very strange..
Especially right after the 2010 elections..
It’s about 55% they will lose control to the GOP. Quite frankly, I could give two hoots about 2014. I’m much more worried about the bloodbath the GOP is looking at in 2016.
If GOP takes the senate, what are the chances they’ll actually repeal Obamacare? And secure the border?
If the White House is occupied by Cruz, pretty good. If its occupied by just about anyone else, not good.
The Democrats are going to lose big this next election, voters are going to remember their lies about Obamacare.
It concluded that unless 2016 turned out to be a good Republican year overall, that Republicans would probably have to win 53 or 54 seats in 2014 to feel good about their chances of holding the Senate two years later.Thanks neverdem. Best scenario for the country would be [redacted by SunkenCiv] before 2016, or better yet, right after the Demwit nominating convention in 2016.
That might explain it.