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Rapid changes in Ukraine: What they mean
WP/AP ^ | Feb. 21, 2014

Posted on 02/21/2014 1:00:00 PM PST by 1rudeboy

KIEV, Ukraine — A frenzy of shuttle diplomacy and hard compromises produced what may be a breakthrough in Ukraine’s 3-month-old political standoff, a crisis that this week prompted the deadliest violence in the country’s modern history.

Protesters remain angry over corruption, crackdowns on democratic freedoms and President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to tighten trade ties with Russia instead of Europe. Radical members are threatening new violence.

But Yanukovych has ceded powers, the re-energized parliament is assuming new authority and events moved faster than ever Friday toward a possible end to the crisis.

Here’s a guide to what’s been happening:

DIVIDED COUNTRY

The protests began in November when Yanukovych abruptly refused to sign a long-anticipated political association and free trade agreement with the European Union, opting instead for closer ties with Russia. Yanukovych is widely despised in western Ukraine, but has strong support in the Russian-speaking east, where he’s from, as well as in the south.

The pro-Western demonstrators saw Yanukovych’s move as a betrayal of national interests and submission to Moscow, and demanded that that he reverse his decision. Their number swelled to hundreds of thousands after a brutal crackdown by riot police. Their demands grew more radical to include Yanukovych’s resignation and early elections.

His supporters in the east, meanwhile, see the protesters and the opposition as manipulated and financed by the West, and feel greater economic and cultural connection to Russia.

VIOLENCE ERUPTS

Peaceful rallies turned abruptly violent in January after parliament, dominated by Yanukovych supporters, passed repressive laws intended to quash the protest. Radical protesters hurled firebombs and stones at police, who retaliated with stun grenades, tear gas and rubber bullets. At least four people died and hundreds were injured.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Crime/Corruption; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Russia
KEYWORDS: russia; ukraine; viktoryanukovich; yuliatymoshenko
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1 posted on 02/21/2014 1:00:00 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

A bill to impeach Yanukovych has been filed in the Rada. Things are moving fast, indeed.

http://en.apa.az/news/207503


2 posted on 02/21/2014 1:03:41 PM PST by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: 1rudeboy

I think we should start a pool on how many hours after the Olympics closing ceremony Putin decides to invade.


3 posted on 02/21/2014 1:04:35 PM PST by cuban leaf
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To: cuban leaf
And that's the irony, isn't it? Normally, the Russians invade during the Olympics. God Bless the IOC, looks like its corrupt bureaucrats got it right this time. lol
4 posted on 02/21/2014 1:07:30 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: cuban leaf

I hope he is smarter than that: the opportune moment had passed, mobsters defecting from sinking administration with amazing speed, there will be no internal public support and with every minute more people realize how badly they were duped by Kremlin stooges.


5 posted on 02/21/2014 1:09:09 PM PST by Samogon (Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something. - Plato)
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To: 1rudeboy

Maybe they can dis-arm this unrest without having to resort to more violence. For a nation with painful memories of the USSR such links to Russia would be un-welcome (even if needed). But, this sort of bloodshed isn’t the answer. Both sides are wrong. Putin isn’t going to send in the tanks. He’s not Stalin. He can play a long haul game to bring Ukraine into his growing Empire. He doesn’t want a new USSR—Communism is dead and buried. That being said, Russian Nationalism is very much alive and a new Russian Empire is in the wind. Best bet, make a few concessions to Czar Putin, but keep independence and nationalism, make the best deal with him (other states have) and build the nation up. Violence doess little—The USA and EU will not come and save you—use your brain and not emotions to become a great land.


6 posted on 02/21/2014 1:10:47 PM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: Forward the Light Brigade
Putin isn’t going to send in the tanks.

I wonder if Vegas is laying odds. I should call my "friend."

7 posted on 02/21/2014 1:12:17 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

Excellent backgrounder-

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/mar/20/fascism-russia-and-ukraine/?insrc=hpss


8 posted on 02/21/2014 1:13:35 PM PST by gasport (Will operate for food.)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

It’s been mentioned that both of his son’s have left the country. Lots of private flights have been noted leaving Ukraine recently. Once the army announced they wouldn’t get involved, the writing was on the wall. Yanukovych crossed the line when snipers were ordered to fire on demonstrators.


9 posted on 02/21/2014 1:16:58 PM PST by meatloaf (Impeach Obama. That's my New Year's resolution.)
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To: 1rudeboy
I don't think Russian military intervention is an option. A number of Ukrainians have undoubtedly been Russified to the point they don't even speak Ukrainian. However, a Russian intervention could bring back memories, even among that segment, of the Holodomor. Ukraine has 4,000 tanks in its inventory. A unified Ukraine (roughly the size of Texas, pop 45m) could bog Russia down for decades without any Western financial or material assistance. With Western equipment and training, they could push the Russians out, inflicting a humiliating retreat that would take Putin's political fortunes down with it. Even a military quagmire would take Putin's poll numbers down. Imagine thousands of Russians coming back in body bags.
10 posted on 02/21/2014 1:17:19 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Zhang Fei
I think Russia could roll over the portion of Ukraine it wants with no problem.
11 posted on 02/21/2014 1:18:46 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

So this government was elected by the people, and if this procedure is in accord with Ukraine’s law, then this should be the way to handle the situation. For the rest of the world to cheer on mob violence and overthrow of an elected government rather puts the lie to all the blather about promoting democracy, doesn’t it?

Anything a politicians says is BS. Laws don’t mean anything, elections don’t mean anything, and what they say one day can be a complete 180 from what they said the day before.


12 posted on 02/21/2014 1:20:52 PM PST by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: Pining_4_TX

It takes a remarkable misunderstanding of history to make that sort of a comment.


13 posted on 02/21/2014 1:26:23 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: Pining_4_TX

The Soviets had regular elections, the Castros have them now in Cuba. Get yourself informed.


14 posted on 02/21/2014 1:28:49 PM PST by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious! We reserve the right to serve refuse to anyone!)
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To: Pining_4_TX
for the rest of the world to cheer on mob violence and overerthrow of an elected government really puts the lie to all the blather about promoting democracy, doesn't it?

It's been that was since the "Arab Spring". These protestors have no taste for working within the law. They're all about overthrowing governments and creating chaos. Mygosh, haven't they learned from the destruction of Libya and Syria?

The Ukranian protestors don't seem to be asking for fair elections anymore. They're asking for the overthrow of an elected government. Regardless how bad their grievances are, it's not the answer.

What's going happen if it gets out of control here? People on both sides of the political spectrum no longer believe that the government represents us. I wonder how tolerant our government will be if protestors don't play by the rules imposed on them.

15 posted on 02/21/2014 1:29:22 PM PST by grania
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To: Pining_4_TX
Color coded map of the 2012 Ukraine election. I am guessing that blue is the Russian leaning portion and violet is the EU leaning portion:

16 posted on 02/21/2014 1:34:34 PM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: 1rudeboy
I think Russia could roll over the portion of Ukraine it wants with no problem.

The Crimea was Khrushchev's payment to Ukraine for the Holodomor and the Soviet massacres in putting down the decade-long partisan war waged by Ukrainian resistance fighters. An invasion of the Crimea could mean a long back-and-forth war, except by drawing the line at the Crimean border, the Russians merely give Ukraine a safe haven from which to mount cross-border strikes. Imagine the Egypt-Israel artillery battles that led up to the 1967 war, and followed it all the way to the Yom Kippur War. It would devastate Ukraine's economy, but would be a festering sore in Russia's economy. Ukraine has 10x Georgia's (the country's) population and land area. It won't be a pushover. The principal result of a Russian invasion would be yet another addition to the long line of examples demonstrating the truth of Enoch Powell's observation that all political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics", on the back of Putin's political career.

17 posted on 02/21/2014 1:34:46 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Forward the Light Brigade

How much you want to bet that the government snipers speak Russian and the protesters they shot speak Ukranian? Why is Julia Tymoshenko in Jail? Why was Yuschenko poisoned. The people running the Ukranian Govt. hate the Ukranian population.,


18 posted on 02/21/2014 1:35:27 PM PST by usual suspect
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To: grania
And I think you (inadvertently) identify the problem in understanding what is going on over there. In the U.S., we identify corruption/unresponsiveness/whatever in our politicians, and we form a Tea Party. And protest, peacefully.

The Ukrainians are farther up the curve.

19 posted on 02/21/2014 1:35:34 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy; All

Reports coming in hot and heavy that Yanukovych has fled Kyiv and is en route to Khariv.


20 posted on 02/21/2014 1:40:07 PM PST by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: grania
I wonder how tolerant our government will be if protestors don't play by the rules imposed on them.

Pretty tolerant, because anyone who orders the shooting of peaceful protestors should probably plan to spend the rest of his life in prison or in exile in a country that doesn't extradite wanted Americans. Fear of future prosecution is why government officials are pussy-footing around as regards Iraq and Afghanistan rules of engagement. It's not the current administration they need to worry about - it's future administrations. A number of Bush administration officials have had to spend large sums of money staying out of prison. There is no statute of limitations for murder.

21 posted on 02/21/2014 1:42:49 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: 1rudeboy; Revolting cat!

Tell me, then, that all the talk about spreading democracy in the world isn’t so much BS. Democracy is just a buzzword used by politicians in an attempt to persuade people they have a voice in their government.

Politicians no more care about democracy than they do about laws and justice. They support the governments they like and are eager to overthrow the ones they don’t. For the west to pretend that it really cares about the people’s voice is nonsense. It’s all phony.


22 posted on 02/21/2014 1:43:45 PM PST by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: Pining_4_TX

First of all, you should try to distinguish between democracy, and subversion of democracy. Just a hint, or never complain about Dem electoral corruption again.


23 posted on 02/21/2014 1:45:42 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: grania

Agreed, and our politicians don’t care a fig about democracy or the law, either.

“Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy.” - Franz Kafka


24 posted on 02/21/2014 1:46:19 PM PST by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: 1rudeboy

Democracy is 2 wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner. It’s a bad form of government, and it always leads to corruption. That is why our founders created a republic.


25 posted on 02/21/2014 1:47:49 PM PST by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: Pining_4_TX
Non-sequiter, but I'll take it anyway. How do you respond to the FReepers who call for their own "solution?"
26 posted on 02/21/2014 1:49:33 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: Pining_4_TX
Agreed, and our politicians don’t care a fig about democracy or the law, either.

If our politicians weren't ambitious self-serving individuals who'd sell their mothers to get ahead, I'd agree with you. The reality of the political world is that a guy who shoots peaceful protestors is politically dead and perhaps criminally-liable for murder. Because his "colleagues" will flay him alive and step on his bloodied carcass on their way to higher office.

27 posted on 02/21/2014 1:51:07 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Zhang Fei
There is no statute of limitations for murder.

That doesn't seem to be much of a problem for Lon Horiuchi.

28 posted on 02/21/2014 1:51:23 PM PST by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: Vigilanteman

Looks like it’s time for a split. Of course, like any divorce, it is inlikely to be friendly.

We will see more and more of this. Check out the book, The Sovereign Individual by Davidson and Rees-Mogg. It predicts this dissolution of large political entities. We are in for some chaotic times.


29 posted on 02/21/2014 1:51:38 PM PST by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: DuncanWaring

Can we please stay on topic?


30 posted on 02/21/2014 1:54:52 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

He has reportedly fled, and twitter says Yulia Tymoshenko has been freed.

As I replied on another thread, apparently unarmed/lightly armed protesters against the police can accomplish quite a bit.


31 posted on 02/21/2014 1:55:53 PM PST by 21twelve (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2185147/posts 2013 is 1933 REBORN)
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To: 1rudeboy

Exactly what “solution” do they propose? Considering that the US is living on borrowed money, that our own politicians are working hard to destroy our economy and our freedom, and that the US’ record on making other countries “make nice”is a massive failure, I think anything the US would attempt would only cause more problems.

Have people noticed that the large nation states are crumbling? China, Russia, Japan, the US, and the European countries all have big problems. It could be we are seeing the end of an era. It’s not going to be pretty, but we are probably looking at more of this “downsizing” in almost every country in the world.


32 posted on 02/21/2014 1:58:31 PM PST by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: 21twelve

Indeed. Things are changing quick.

This MAY be Yanukovych’s flight - I haven’t got it confirmed yet, but a source of mine (former student) said this is his.

Flight AOJ92C

http://www.flightradar24.com/AOJ92C/2c1d69f


33 posted on 02/21/2014 2:02:47 PM PST by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: DuncanWaring
That doesn't seem to be much of a problem for Lon Horiuchi.

His target was known to be an armed survivalist holed up in a remote cabin. Like it or not, armed survivalists are marginal figures in the public perception. The shooting of hundreds or thousands of unarmed demonstrators on live TV is a different kettle of fish. If you are suggesting that the public reaction to a bunch of armed demonstrators being shot to death will be mild, I will have to agree with you there.

34 posted on 02/21/2014 2:05:34 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Pining_4_TX
The Czech Republic and Slovakia had a relatively bloodless split. That seems to be the model to date.

Slovenia and the old Yugoslavia didn't do so bad either. Croatia and Serbia may have done the same without the Muslim factor in the mix. That made it very ugly. Indeed, one of the nastiest civil wars of the 1990s.

Ukraine, even under its present boundaries, is still over 70% ethnic Ukrainian. Of course, a fair share of those speak Russian as a first language and are located in the blue areas.

Still, after the recent bloodshed, they might be seriously rethinking their votes. Maybe a few Obama voters would do the same, but I'm not optimistic that we could solve it with less bloodshed than Ukraine has suffered this go-round.

35 posted on 02/21/2014 2:28:52 PM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: 1rudeboy
I think Russia could roll over the portion of Ukraine it wants with no problem.

Not this Russian army. It's a rusting, drunk, undisciplined, unprofessional corrupted shell of the Red army it used to be. It's runs on 60's and 70's tech. It's pilots don't fly much, it's armor is sitting and rusting, it takes decades to build new subs due to lack of cash and however much of the fleet that is able to sail rarely gets to do so. It would cost Russia dearly to invade Ukraine.

36 posted on 02/21/2014 2:30:14 PM PST by Tonytitan
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To: DuncanWaring
That doesn't seem to be much of a problem for Lon Horiuchi.

The focus on Horiuchi is misplaced. The ROE's in place until the casualties occurred were imposed by his superiors. Ultimately, any impetus to prosecute senior FBI officials for Ruby Ridge was dissipated by the Oklahoma bombing. Nonetheless, the Clinton administration paid millions in compensation to the Weaver family to avoid more information about official malfeasance from getting out:

The surviving members of the Weaver family filed a wrongful death suit. To avoid trial and a possibly higher settlement, the federal government awarded Randy Weaver a $100,000 settlement and his three daughters $1 million each in August 1995. In the out-of-court settlement, the government did not admit any wrongdoing in the deaths of Sammy and Vicki Weaver.

I don't understand the mentality of people like McVeigh. If he had wanted to get back at the people responsible for Waco, he could have targeted people in the chain of command ranging from boots on the ground types all the way up to Janet Reno. Similarly, he could have gone after Lon Horiuchi and gotten him to divulge the names of his superiors, and so on. Instead, he went after a bunch of people who had nothing to do with either Waco or Ruby Ridge.

37 posted on 02/21/2014 2:49:47 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Pining_4_TX; 1rudeboy
It’s not going to be pretty, but we are probably looking at more of this “downsizing” in almost every country in the world.

So your solution is to give up and become communist, like we have here?

Rude we rarely agree but on this issue you are absolutely correct. Seems we have a bunch of Sowell wannabes showing up to advise us on how to surrender.

38 posted on 02/21/2014 4:05:06 PM PST by itsahoot (It is not so much that history repeats, but that human nature does not change.)
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To: itsahoot
Rude we rarely agree....

Drink!

39 posted on 02/21/2014 4:06:30 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: Zhang Fei; DuncanWaring
His target was known to be an armed survivalist holed up in a remote cabin.

His target was a women carrying her baby in her arms liar.

40 posted on 02/21/2014 4:06:44 PM PST by itsahoot (It is not so much that history repeats, but that human nature does not change.)
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To: 1rudeboy

Yeh, whenever I want to know what’s going on in the world, I turn to the commie liars at Associated Press and the Washington Post. (Tons of sarcasm!)


41 posted on 02/21/2014 4:22:56 PM PST by sergeantdave
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To: itsahoot
His target was a women carrying her baby in her arms liar.

Assuming you're not one of the people present at the scene, neither of us is in a position to lie about this, since we're getting our information second or third hand. All we *know* is he said, she said.

Based on what I've read, the warrant was for Randy Weaver's arrest on weapons charges, and anyone who helped him resist arrest was a legit target under the ROE's initially issued by Horiuchi's superiors. In other words, the area around Weaver's cabin was a free-fire zone. After Vicky Weaver was killed, those ROE's were revoked, but Humpty Dumpty couldn't be put back together. The Clinton administration acknowledged its mistake and the beating it would take in public opinion polls, by paying the Weavers to go away, and avoiding a politically-costly trial.

In a way, the FBI people who put together the Waco and Ruby Ridge operations set the stage for the Oklahoma bombing. If they had persisted, it is possible that more such attacks would have occurred in retaliation. This is probably why Ruby Ridge was the last such incident, and that was 20 years ago. If more such incidents had occurred since then, we'd be talking about them instead of Ruby Ridge. They were the exception that proved the rule, that in this country, the authorities are loathe to conduct these operations.

42 posted on 02/21/2014 4:23:15 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: sergeantdave

If you prefer RIA Novosti, be my guest.


43 posted on 02/21/2014 4:24:06 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

“And that’s the irony, isn’t it? Normally, the Russians invade during the Olympics.”

Do they? Besides the time they stepped in to protect the Ossetians being shelled by Saakashvili’s army as they slept in their homes, I can’t think of what you might mean. He chose to use the artillery during the 2008 Olympics.


44 posted on 02/21/2014 4:28:18 PM PST by OldNewYork
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To: OldNewYork

Yeah, those Georgians. A real threat to world peace. /s


45 posted on 02/21/2014 4:33:25 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

‘If you prefer RIA Novosti, be my guest.’

I’d prefer not to be your guest for anything. Thank you, though, for the offer.


46 posted on 02/21/2014 4:41:54 PM PST by sergeantdave
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To: sergeantdave

That’s fine, and I thank you for not posting in Cyrillic.


47 posted on 02/21/2014 4:44:56 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: Zhang Fei
They were the exception that proved the rule, that in this country, the authorities are loathe to conduct these operations.

And yet good old Lon was at Waco, doing one of those operations that they loathe.

There are practically daily reports of police excess sending swat teams in breaking down doors, shooting dogs and sometimes people.

48 posted on 02/21/2014 4:49:48 PM PST by itsahoot (It is not so much that history repeats, but that human nature does not change.)
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To: itsahoot
And yet good old Lon was at Waco, doing one of those operations that they loathe. There are practically daily reports of police excess sending swat teams in breaking down doors, shooting dogs and sometimes people.

Abuse by local police officials has been a long-standing tradition shielded since forever by the thin blue line. Without video evidence, it was always he said, she said. Now that cheap and ubiquitous video equipment is a reality, a lot of those abuses are coming to light. Local journalists are also a less compliant than they used to be (in order to preserve access to police sources), given the proliferation of online media outlets that will publicize the outrages that they don't.

But the fact that we are still talking about Ruby Ridge and Waco 20 years later instead of some fresh outrage by the FBI from say, 2 weeks ago, shows that the Feds have been much more circumspect since then. And some of that care, at the Federal level, may spring from the fear of the kind of reaction that killed over 100 people and wounded hundreds in Oklahoma City.

49 posted on 02/21/2014 5:01:51 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: itsahoot
It appears Horiuchi fired at Kevin Harris rather than Vicki Weaver, who was behind a door:

After his first shot hit and wounded Randy Weaver, Horiuchi fired a second shot at Kevin Harris, who was armed, some 20 seconds later as Harris was running into the Weaver home. The bullet struck and killed Vicki Weaver while she was holding her 10-month-old child behind the door through which Harris was entering the home;[2][3] the round also struck and wounded Harris.[4]

50 posted on 02/21/2014 5:08:22 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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