Skip to comments.The Math That Predicted The Revolutions Sweeping The Globe
Posted on 02/24/2014 10:13:24 PM PST by JerseyanExile
It's happening in Ukraine, Venezuela, Thailand, Bosnia, Syria, and beyond. Revolutions, unrest, and riots are sweeping the globe. The near-simultaneous eruption of violent protest can seem random and chaotic; inevitable symptoms of an unstable world. But there's at least one common thread between the disparate nations, cultures, and people in conflict, one element that has demonstrably proven to make these uprisings more likely: high global food prices.
Just over a year ago, complex systems theorists at the New England Complex Systems Institute warned us that if food prices continued to climb, so too would the likelihood that there would be riots across the globe. Sure enough, we're seeing them now. The paper's author, Yaneer Bar-Yam, charted the rise in the FAO food price indexa measure the UN uses to map the cost of food over timeand found that whenever it rose above 210, riots broke out worldwide. It happened in 2008 after the economic collapse, and again in 2011, when a Tunisian street vendor who could no longer feed his family set himself on fire in protest.
Bar-Yam built a model with the data, which then predicted that something like the Arab Spring would ensue just weeks before it did. Four days before Mohammed Bouazizi's self-immolation helped ignite the revolution that would spread across the region, NECSI submitted a government report that highlighted the risk that rising food prices posed to global stability. Now, the model has once again proven prescient2013 saw the third-highest food prices on record, and that's when the seeds for the conflicts across the world were sown.
(Excerpt) Read more at motherboard.vice.com ...
thanks for posting this
A ping in hopes that you still lurk...
Never thought of this as a trigger.
Few things will trigger people who otherwise are docile
to turn violent than the pangs of hunger.....unless it is
the look of hunger in the eyes of their children.
Is the US next?
I’ve seen this before — it could be a spurious correlation, not causation, of course. Lots of other factors rising or falling at the same time as food prices.
Anything that disrupts supplying the necessities is a catalyst.
So, if correct, China, Russia, Arabia, N. Korea, Cuba, etc. — all hostile third world countries that are historically susceptible to this kind of unrest anyway, and that have been conspiring to weaken and destabilize us for decades — have only to experience a spike in domestic food prices and tyrants’ heads begin rolling around like someone just smashed the gum ball machine?
This is easy. Not a lot of troops needed. It’s not rocket science. So why are we sending them food aid? And as for sabotaging their food production... You kidding me? You hardly have to lift your pinky and N. Korea goes down. Our opponent in this battle is half a dozen one-legged men in a dark alley. True, nothing’s going to happen while the Kenyan’s president. But he’s not going to be president forever.
I recall reading about this years ago, with the various stimulus packages and U.S. money printing schemes. Increased false wealth in the U.S. causes an increase in prices in America, and thus the world. Of course it doesn’t need to be just fake wealth - but this time it is.
I’ll view it as an unintended consequence, but I’m sure many others will see the hands of George Soros behind it. And who knows.....?
A real Hari Seldon?
I’d love to see some analysis of the effect of ethanol requirements in gasoline (a hidden corn subsidy) on food prices linked to this.
As a nation, we’re completely autonomous, and that’s what the Marxists fear the most.
The only thing disrupting the flow of goods between one and his neighbor is the other neighbor that works for the govt.
I’m not sure upsetting China would be good - they have plenty of our own money to get back at us economically. And same goes with Arabia with oil. I suppose Russia takes care of Cuba. Does China still take care of N. Korea?
Thinking about Russia, I wonder if they can afford to have poor relations with an independent Ukraine - being the “Breadbasket of Europe” that it is.
And don’t forget America. Spiraling health insurance costs, increased unemployment, fewer benefits, increased food costs, major drought to make food prices even higher. But hey - the stock market is at record highs so all is good! (Until it isn’t.)
See my previous post regarding drought. Not only does the corn ethanol take away acreage from food crops, it uses WAY more water than crops like wheat, beans, etc.
Oh - I also saw a paper (from Berkely???? of all places iirc), that the breakdown of the corn as a fuel releases some other chemical combination that is 100 times worse as a “greenhouse gas” than the oil that it is replacing!
For all their nuts, Berkeley has real hard Science types. A friend I went to college with got his Chemistry PhD there, and he’s the real deal, and very much not a Leftist.
Here’s the article I saw regarding drought and ethanol.
924 gallons of water to make 1 LITER of ethanol! (UC Berkley)
According to the EPA!!: Corn Ethanol releases more greenhouse gases than petroleum production.
In 2012, animal feed prices (largest cost of animal production for meat, milk, etc.) was up 32%.
But hey, if we can save just ONE polar bear - it’s worth it. (Personally, I think the seals need a better media Rep.)