Skip to comments.Democrat Senate Panic: Gardner Makes A Total Of 14 Democratic Seats Vulnerable
Posted on 02/27/2014 9:29:16 AM PST by Hojczyk
The GOPs probability of taking over the United States Senate increased dramatically Wednesday with the entry of Rep. Cory Gardner into the race against incumbent Obamacare enthusiast Senator Mark Udall in Colorado.
1. West Virginia: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito v. no one. Jay Rockefeller quit after Capito got into the race. She will win, going away.
2. South Dakota: Former Governor Mike Rounds in South Dakota v. no one in South Dakota This is a mortal lock for the popular Rounds.
3. Arkansas: Rep. Tom Cotton v. the hapless legacy senator Mark Pryor in Ark Pryor won his seat because his dad held it for years. Now the combat veteran of Afghanistan and Iraq Tom Cotton has a lead and is building it day by day, as shrinking Pryor struggles to erase all his positive endorsements of Obamacare. Most recently he was for repealing the cuts to career military COLAs after he was for them.
4. North Carolina: A businessman and former Speaker of the North Carolina House Thom Tillis is already ahead of another Obamacare booster, Denocratic incumbent Kay Hagan.
5. Michigan: Former Lt. Governor Terri Lynne Land is contesting an open seat left so by ancient Carl Levin, who has designated a no name with a propensity to disappear even more from voters minds. Land is running on the same ticket with popular GOP governor Rick Snyder, and has established an early lead.
6. Virginia: Ed Gillespie is running against a popular former governor-turned-senator Mark Warner, in a purple state, but Warner is tightly tied to both Obamacare and the new governor Terry McAullife, and Gillespie is a pros pro with terrific fundraising ability and genuine and deep roots in the Commonwealth.
(Excerpt) Read more at hughhewitt.com ...
8. Montana: Rep. Steve Daines must unseat the recently appointed John Walsh, who was gifted his seat when clueless Max (Obamacare is a train wreck) Baucus was exiled to China in an obvious attempt to hang on to the seat.
9. Colorado: Rep. Gardner is young, charismatic and an experienced veteran of Rocky Mountain State politics who spent years on the U.S. Senate staff of Wayne Allard, a stint in the Colorado legislature, and checked both big boxes as a CSU undergrad and CU law grad. Mark Udall is Narack Obama in a badly fitting cowboy hat.
10. Louisiana: Rep. Bill Cassidy is in a dead heat with long-time hanger on Mary Landrieu, and will have to go through the jungle primary before facing Landrieu head-on a few weeks later. If, as expected, the Republicans already control the incoming majority, he will win in a romp. If the Senate hangs in the balance, more money will flow into the Lousiana race than has ever been seen there before.
11. Minnesota: Mike McFadden is a self-funding successful businessman who has an uphill but doable battle with comedian Al Franken, who along with Bernie Sanders and Barbara Boxer, define the left edge of the United States Senate. If Gopher State voters get tired of being the butto jokes because of Franken, McFadden can win here.
12. Iowa: This is an open seat, but with popular Republican governor Terry Branstad running for an easy re-election, if the GOP nominates the right candidate from among many contenders, he or she could win in November against an off-the-shelf-left-wing Democrat, blah blah blah Bruce Braley.
13. Oregon: Dr. Monica Wehby is a pediatric neurosugeon exactly the sort of person Obamacrae booster incumbent Jeff Merkely didnt want to face but will in November.
14. New Hampshire: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is praying Scott Brown doesnt get into the race, but the former Massachusetts senator has been a second-home resident of the Granite State for decades and may take the plunge. If he does or if columnist-to-the-world Mark Steyn dives in Shaheen who delivered Obamacare and all its misery to New Hampshire, will be in deep trouble.
Theres the list that makes Harry Reid twitch. How wonderful it will be to see him live with the rules he has enacted, all the precedents he has dashed, all the abuses he brought about. Cory Gardner made a lot of people happy yesterday, but not nearly as happy as November will make them.
If the GOPe wins them it won’t really matter.
Would he do it????
Hewitt is the GOP Insider’s insider. He’s as conventional wisdom as they get. He knows about half of what he predicts. Half the GOP people here might not get out of their primaries, let alone win the state outright.
I know there’s been a lack of enthusiasm for Gillespie in VA, but taking out Warner will pay huge dividends well beyond just picking up a Senate seat. VA is a must win state for Dems in 2016, and a Warner defeat is going to majorly change the political calculations of all the top tier Dems. It might even provoke an open civil war in the Dem Party as Obamas hung out to dry. ..
The moment after we win 51/49, we need to call in and demand that CRUZ be made majority leader.
I’m new to Colorado but this was SO big it was news everywhere.
Feeling is this could push Colorado back to the Red if they can fight off The Machine.
Colorado Ping ( Let me know if you wish to be added or removed from the list.)
He made on mistake on WV. Rockefeller retired. Then Capito announced. IIRC, she does have Natalie Tennant, D as opposition.
Mr. Steyn won't be doing any weak sister, nancy boy responses to attacks. Woohoo!!
Bets on how long it takes one of the RINOs to switch if that happens?
The Oregon senate seat should be an easy pickup, as Merkley’s approval numbers are way down. But Monica Wehby isn’t very strong as a speaker & keeps missing debates with Jason Conger. Conger is currently in the Oregon House, but he’s got issues of his own. I’d dearly love to see Merkley go down!
Pretty much. Not a Ted Cruz among the candidates discussed.
Hugh is the mouthpiece of the GOPe. Do we trust this Gardner guy? Does he have Ted’s approval?
Taking the Senate is a given, sadly though, even if we swept the election completely which won’t happen, we are still not at the 67 votes needed to override vetos.
There are good chances to take out RINOs in the primaries. O’Connell and Cornyn come to mind.
"When asked by RedState about the race switch, Ken Buck said, I think Cory has the best chance to beat Senator Udall. But I still want to go to Washington D.C. and address the issues I have talked about in my campaign. Thats why I decided to run for the House.
As for RedState, at this point we are not ready to endorse in the Senate race given Bucks departure. A Gardner candidacy has its positives and would be a marked upgrade on Mark Udall, but as Senator he most likely would not be the sort of firebrand conservative fighter that Cruz or Lee are. Gears are already turning in Bucks favor within the conservative organizations that play in House races. Sources have confirmed that groups such as Madison Project and Club for Growth are already preparing the back Buck in a run Additionally, all the funds that Ken Buck raised in his Senate campaign is now transferable to his eventual congressional campaign.
Colorados 4th Congressional District is R+11 according to the latest Cook PVI, one of the safest seats in the country for Republicans. Ken Bucks brand of politics fits the district well. And should he win the seat, which he no doubt would, he would be well positioned to take on Bennett in a 2016 Senatorial rematch. "
Whatever R+11 means. Looks to be ok.
R+11 means that there’s an 11% advantage for Republicans.
They’re in deep trouble
Oh, and Hewitt needs a raincheck if he think we’ll allow Kingston to win the Georgia primary
I wish. Senator Steyn.
Which is why the red state primaries are VITAL. Cochran in Mississippi the one to watch
Never going to happen unless you take out every establishmentarian this cycle, a full sweep Cornyn/Cochran/McConnell/Graham/Alexander which is unlikely. Much more likely we could get someone conservative like Inhofe in there.
Not much of an opposition. Tennant is further behind in WV than Windy Davis is in Texas.
Good, because most of the Senate candidates that have been endorsed by Erick Erickson and/or "RedState" in the primary have lived up to the website's name, and caused their state to go communist. We're stuck with uber-RINO Comrade Kirk until 2016, after RedState endorsed him and drank the kool-aid that Kirk was a "fiscal conservative" who will be "with us when it counts"
Seriously though, I'm very relived we won't be stuck with Ken Buck as the GOP nominee in CO (and I'm sure RedState is crying about it because of their delusion that he could win statewide). Unfortunately its too late to follow suit in Illinois and replace Oberweis with a viable conservative like Congressman Roskam for the U.S. Senate race.
There is one in North Carolina who I think will beat RINO Tillis in the primary. Greg Brannon. Rand has endorsed him. He’d be solid, and he has a huge network int he state.
No, Gardner is a 71% rating conservative, but most of his bad ratings are for farming subsidy votes. He’d be acceptable for Colorado.
Glad we’ll see Buck in congress. He’s okay in my book.
Oberweiss still has to beat Truax, who I don’t know enough about.
That's true, but since Truax is unknown, I can't put him in the category of a Cory Gardner. That's why I said a candidate like Peter Roskam would be ideal, except no prominent conservative has run.
The good news is that Truax has updated his website, and he appears to be pretty clearly conservative (pro-life, pro-gun, anti-illegal, etc.) so he's not another Sauerberg (Durbin's laughable 2008 opponent whose "positions" on the issues were things like "government shouldn't waste money" and "corruption is bad") He also has a "twelve reasons" section why we should nominate him over Oberweis, and most of it is very valid, IMO (military vet, married to the same woman for 22 years, lacks all the baggage Oberweis has from the gaffe's in his previous campaigns, etc.)
I agree with Impy on this one. Even if Truax has a 1% chance of beating Durbin, it's better than Oberweis' 0%. Though I imagine Erick Erickson and his friends at MarxistState prefer Oberweis because he's more of a "fighter" (e.g. gets in front of TV cameras and tells them what they want to hear)
Truax is far better than the other ‘business’ candidate we have running this cycle, up in Minnesota. McFadden who is mentioned by Hewitt is essentially Susan Collins lite! I hope he goes down in flames in the MN primary, but the choice of Kurt freakin’ Bills in 2012 to face Klobuchar makes me pessimistic.
Because of 6 and 14, we’ll have to win more seats for it to matter.
Yikes. I had no idea McFadden was a Susan Collins type RINO. Hewitt’s probably touting him because he thinks that squish is “electable” in MN. The good news is there seem to be several good candidates running this time around, I hope Minn. conservatives can settle on one. Chris Dahlberg looks pretty good, except he talks up his ability to find “bipartisan” solutions on his website.
A lot of freepers says Kurt Bills was a disaster, and he did get crushed in the November election. But honestly, looking back on it, I don’t see how anyone else could have been an improvement. Bills was one of the FEW Paulbot candidates (along with Peter Schiff and an handful of others) that I actually liked. Unlike MOST of his fellow Paulbots, he was not afraid to stand up for pro-life and pro-traditional marriage (compared to “I’m personally against it but states can do whatever they want, even if an activist judge in the state is the one who passed it” crowd), and he had a pretty solid record in the MN legislature, voluntarily declining his pay during the 2011 Minnesota government shutdown and introducing viable legislation for scholarships for early high school graduation, and reduction of pay for legislators if the budget is not balanced by the end of the legislative session. (Most of his fellow Paulbots waste their time on fantasy land stuff that will never pass, like demanding a repeal of the 17th amendment) Given that his opponents in the primary were an unknown former Marine Corps sergeant and a private sector businessman who came in 2nd in thep primary for Governor, I’m not surprised Bills won the nomination.
In any case, 2014 gives us a chance to take out Franken, no matter how slim, and we’d be foolish not to pursuit it. Of all the “upset” victories we could get, defeating Franken in Minnesota would be the best.
Any word on New Mexico.
The other Udall is a freshman Senator up in 2014 too.
The map is expanding.
If the primaries go well, many won’t be GOP establishment.
Good capsule review by Hugh Hewitt of the vulnerable ‘rat Senate seats, but I certainly wouldn’t rate New Hampshire last of the 14 in terms of likelihood of GOP takeover.
Bill, I agree that Congressman Roskam would have been the best candidate against Durbin.
Truax’s site says that he’s pro-life, but, under that headline, he said that he supports banning abortions after the 20th week of pregnancy. He’s not pro-life enough, and he hasn’t held an elective office, unlike Sen. Oberweis.
While Hewitt’s optimism makes forms nice read, it’s reaching pretty far beyond the bounds of reality. If all goes well, the GOP will pick up about four seats, and make for some other unexpectedly close races.
My take on Hewitt is very close to yours. I was feeling better about our chances before I read his opinion.
The eternal optimist, thy name is Hugh Hewitt. He must be related to Karl Rove.
Thanks for the ping Justice.
His position is that he believes that “life begins at conception and that the sanctity of all innocent lives should be protected”, NOT that abortion is okay prior to 20 weeks.
What he said is that he will focus on legislation like parental notification and a ban on late-term abortions, because he thinks those things have a better chance of being passed. He didn’t say he wouldn’t vote in favor of banning other types of abortion.
Never to be seen again...
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