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U.S. Spies Said No Russian Invasion of Ukraine—Putin Disagreed
The Daily Beast ^ | 1 Mar 2014 | Eli Lake,Christopher Dickey

Posted on 03/01/2014 10:28:30 AM PST by mandaladon

A day after U.S. intelligence said there would be no Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s troops started coming over the border. On Thursday night, the best assessment from the U.S. intelligence community—and for that matter most experts observing events in Ukraine—was that Vladimir Putin’s military would not invade Ukraine. Less than 24 hours later, however, there are reports from the ground of Russian troops pushing into the Ukrainian province of Crimea; the newly-installed Crimean prime minister has appealed to Putin to help him secure the country; Putin, in turn, is officially asking for parliament's permission to send Russian forces into Ukraine. It’s not a full-blown invasion—at least, not yet. But it’s not the picture U.S. analysts were painting just a day before, either.

There was good reason to think Putin wouldn’t do it. Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov told Secretary of State John Kerry that Russia respected the territorial integrity of the Ukraine. U.S. intelligence assessments concluded that the 150,000-man Russian military exercises announced by Putin on Wednesday were not preparations for an invasion of Ukraine because no medical units accompanied the troops. And Russian and U.S. diplomats were still working on Iran and Syrian diplomacy. All of this followed a successful Winter Olympic games for Putin’s Russia.

Yet private security contractors, working for the Russian military, seized control of two airports in Crimea on Friday. And Ukrainian border officials said that Russian cargo planes had landed inside the province, and that 10 military helicopters flew into Ukrainian airspace. U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence on the fast moving situation in Ukraine tell The Daily Beast that analytic products from the intelligence community this week did not discount the prospect of Russian provocations and even light incursions in the Russian majority province of Crimea,

(Excerpt) Read more at thedailybeast.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: crimea; obama; putin; russia; ukraine; ukrainecrisis; viktoryanukovich; yuliatymoshenko
Nonetheless, until Friday, no one anticipated a Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory."Nobody thought Putin was going to invade last night,” one Senate aide who works closely on the Ukraine crisis. ..................Guess what?
1 posted on 03/01/2014 10:28:30 AM PST by mandaladon
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To: mandaladon
This administration would have to improve 1000% just to up to the level of 'incompetent'.
2 posted on 03/01/2014 10:31:10 AM PST by tbpiper
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To: mandaladon

This administration is horrible. A joke. They need to be thrown out of office. The Obama Red Lines are all over the place now. All of them have been crossed with impunity. Our president is a coward at best.


3 posted on 03/01/2014 10:31:24 AM PST by shankbear (The tree of Liberty appears to be perishing because there are few patriots willing to refresh it.)
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To: mandaladon
This goes straight to a pet peeve of mine: I don't care if you think that Putin will not invade. Your job is to assume he will.

And let's be frank . . . if Vegas was to lay odds . . . .

4 posted on 03/01/2014 10:31:38 AM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: mandaladon
it's obvious that Putin calculated correctly yet again. The United States was gulled into thinking that Russia would forbear this time because the siloviki gave assurances to a U.S. diplomatic corps eager to believe anything that it would do. Washington’s own intelligence community, fresh from proclaiming a year ago that Bashar al-Assad had “weeks left” in power, assessed yesterday that “we don’t have any reason to think” that the surprise drill of 150,000 soldiers announced overnight by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu would amount to “more than military exercises.” And given that the United States has yet to definitively label what transpired eight months ago in Egypt a “coup,” the Kremlin must have also reckoned that a rapid takeover of Crimea would be all over but for the shouting as Washington sputtered to define exactly what had just transpired, much less attempted a coherent response to yet another international crisis. Who needs “fraternal assistance” when American officials themselves have coined the unbeatable euphemism “uncontested arrival” to describe a Russian invasion of one of its neighbors?.............Putin gives Obama the finger...again.
5 posted on 03/01/2014 10:33:21 AM PST by mandaladon (If you're going through hell, keep going. ~Winston Churchill)
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To: mandaladon
US Intelligence??? You mean the ones downloading all OUR stuff? You mean the Obama’s butt kissers? You mean the ones who told us Benghazi was due to a homemade video? LOL...now...ROTHLMAO!

But no worries world! We here in the US are enjoying our Happy Hour with the 1st World President Obama who is busy lowering the world's oceans, yada, yada, yada.

Oh yes, and to earn his Nobel Peace Prize, he reducing our military to before WW2 strength. Happy Days are here again!

6 posted on 03/01/2014 10:33:46 AM PST by Chgogal (Obama "hung the SEALs out to dry, basically exposed them like a set of dog balls..." CMH)
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To: mandaladon
Russian spies said Obama would run away.
7 posted on 03/01/2014 10:35:44 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper
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To: mandaladon

When NSA focuses on Tea Party Members, male Christians, registered Republicans, all cell phone calls made by Americans to anyone, and people opposing Obozo Care, they wouldn’t have any resources to monitor any real problems.

Even, if any potential incursion plans were intercepted, the Out House and its band of left wing thugs would have ignored the report and buried it like the Benghazi cover up.


8 posted on 03/01/2014 10:37:56 AM PST by Grampa Dave ( Obozo Care is a Trinity of Lies! Obozo Care is probably a serious Black Swan event.)
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To: mandaladon

One former U.S. intelligence officer told The Daily Beast he expects Russian operatives to begin launching false flag style operations designed to look like terrorist attacks or arms shipments to anti-Russian groups in Crimea and to leak alleged conversations implicating Kiev and the CIA in these drummed up events.*****

Putin must have found one of the CIA’s playbooks left behind in Syria.


9 posted on 03/01/2014 10:38:36 AM PST by bereanway
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To: mandaladon

When you have a President that is incompetent then you will have people around him that are incompetent.


10 posted on 03/01/2014 10:40:34 AM PST by SECURE AMERICA (Where can I go to sign up for the American Revolution 2014 and the Crusades 2014?)
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To: shankbear

Feckless.
Feckless President
Feckless government employees


11 posted on 03/01/2014 10:41:34 AM PST by edcoil (Realism is only a socially accepted for of pessimism)
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To: mandaladon

Don’t blame the CIA. They are too busy preparing to celebrate “Diversity Month.”


12 posted on 03/01/2014 10:43:17 AM PST by Cowboy Bob (They are called "Liberals" because the word "parasite" was already taken.)
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To: mandaladon

Chalk up another pathetic failure for the Washington foreign policy and intelligence “experts.”

I’m so glad that these people are keeping us safe in a dangerous world.


13 posted on 03/01/2014 10:43:32 AM PST by mojito (Zero, our Nero.)
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To: bereanway

C’mon, the Russians have been doing it for decades. If anything, they wrote the playbook that the CIA stole.


14 posted on 03/01/2014 10:43:36 AM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: shankbear
"The Obama Red Lines are all over the place now. All of them have been crossed with impunity." Thanks to Daniel Greenfield for the remarks below to explain where we are with Obozo as POTUS.

The Post-American order stands for nothing except its own dismantling. That is why Obama sets red lines that he won’t enforce and issues threats that he doesn’t mean.

The only thing less appealing than selfishness is the complete absence of self. The only thing less appealing than empire is an anti-imperialism that so thoroughly negates its own power that it has no influence and no reason to exist.

Post-American America exists to destroy itself. Until that changes, it has nothing to offer the world except membership in a suicide pact.


15 posted on 03/01/2014 10:45:10 AM PST by Grampa Dave ( Obozo Care is a Trinity of Lies! Obozo Care is probably a serious Black Swan event.)
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To: mandaladon

Obama, doing foreign policy the Chamberlain way


16 posted on 03/01/2014 10:45:33 AM PST by Ophiucus
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To: mandaladon

This is what happens when you have a commander in chief that fights for gay marriage in the military instead of preparing the military for a fight.


17 posted on 03/01/2014 10:46:31 AM PST by struggle
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To: mandaladon

In 2009 Palin predicted the invasion. US intelligence (as of THURSDAY?) couldn’t see it happening?

Oh God.


18 posted on 03/01/2014 10:46:35 AM PST by Balding_Eagle (Over production, one of the top 5 worries for the American Farmer every year.)
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To: mandaladon

Absolute liars, psychopaths, and at their BEST incompetent undocumented sociopaths.


19 posted on 03/01/2014 10:47:15 AM PST by Diogenesis
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To: mandaladon
U.S. Spies Said No Russian Invasion of Ukraine

That's the downside.

The UPside is that they have EVERY single email I have sent to my cousin about her newest recipe!

20 posted on 03/01/2014 10:47:46 AM PST by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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To: mandaladon

The admin only has competent spies watching US!

Recording everything on FR probably


21 posted on 03/01/2014 10:51:16 AM PST by Viennacon
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To: Berlin_Freeper

I am trying to think of who would be impressed with whatever that was, or was supposed to prove. So far I am at a loss.


22 posted on 03/01/2014 11:01:05 AM PST by Psalm 144 (1. Sow. 2. Reap. 3. Eat the result.)
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To: Viennacon

Kenyan not only screwing America, he is now “fixing” the world, one nice commie caliphate.
Time to “Maidan” the DC.


23 posted on 03/01/2014 11:03:45 AM PST by Leo Carpathian (FReeeeepeesssssed)
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To: mojito
The last five years have been plenty instructive to Putin about what America is prepared and willing to do, even when it sets its own standards of supposedly intolerable or unconscionable behavior. At worst, he knows, the superpower will send emissaries to Turtle Bay, leaving him free to send APCs to Simferopol or attack helicopters to Damascus. Putin knows exactly what he’s up against. America still pretends it doesn’t..........................Obama doesn't care unless it affects his Muslim brothers.
24 posted on 03/01/2014 11:03:53 AM PST by mandaladon (If you're going through hell, keep going. ~Winston Churchill)
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To: mandaladon
The CIA delivered the intelligence that would please their master Obama’s ears.
25 posted on 03/01/2014 11:07:43 AM PST by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: mandaladon

In most countries, a total diplomatic and intelligence failure such as this would mean the removal of the regime. Here, I doubt most people are even aware of 0bama’s latest fiasco.


26 posted on 03/01/2014 11:18:09 AM PST by The Sons of Liberty (Who but a TYRANT shoves down another man's throat what he has exempted himself from?)
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To: shankbear
The Obama Red Lines are all over the place now. All of them have been crossed with impunity. Our president is a coward at best.

The US intelligence agencies are now the largest ever with capabilities almost exceeding the wildest imagining of a few decades past. Yet...we've come to this.

When a red crayon is the only thing left in the arsenal, a choom gang illegal alien usurper drawing pathetic redlines is what we are left with.

Recent reports of fishing boats spotting the Grand Fenwick Duchy's armada off the coast of Long Island have been dismissed by Jay Carnie-Barker.

27 posted on 03/01/2014 11:20:28 AM PST by Covenantor ("Men are ruled...by liars who refuse them news, and by fools who cannot govern." Chesterton)
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To: Navy Patriot
The CIA delivered the intelligence that would please their master Obama’s ears.

That is certainly a possibility.

What is a certainty is that no matter what intel the CIA delivered, obama only heard that which would please his ears.

28 posted on 03/01/2014 11:24:00 AM PST by null and void (<--- unwilling cattle-car passenger on the bullet train to serfdom)
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To: mandaladon
Remind sme of a quote from Hitler...

Our strength is our quickness and our brutality. Genghis Khan had millions of women and children hunted down and killed, deliberately and with a gay heart. History sees in him only the great founder of States. What the weak Western European civilization alleges about me, does not matter. I have given the order – and will have everyone shot who utters but one word of criticism – that the aim of this war does not consist in reaching certain designated [geographical] lines, but in the enemies' physical elimination. Thus, for the time being only in the east, I put ready my Death's Head units, with the order to kill without pity or mercy all men, women, and children of the Polish race or language. Only thus will we gain the living space that we need. Who still talks nowadays of the extermination of the Armenians?

29 posted on 03/01/2014 11:34:43 AM PST by HangnJudge
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To: mandaladon
"U.S. Spies Said No Russian Invasion of Ukraine"

Must be comrade obama's hand picked spies.
30 posted on 03/02/2014 4:24:51 AM PST by clearcarbon
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