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Ukraine vs. Russia -- here's what's really going on
FOX News ^ | Feb 28, 2014 | By Peter Brooks Heritage Foundation

Posted on 03/01/2014 1:01:41 PM PST by Jim Robinson

When Moscow tells us that their massive military maneuvers in Western Russia have nothing to do with what’s happening in Kiev it’s like the old Marx Brothers’ routine: Who are you going to believe, me (Moscow) or your own eyes?

Puh-leez.

In fact, while not a major military incursion by Moscow, the ongoing power plays in Crimea manifested in the presence of yet-unidentified, armed Russia-loyalists at two airports could be an ominous harbinger of things to come.

First, Moscow is signaling strength to Kiev, reminding their western neighbor that Mother Russia is a force to be reckoned with. You Ukrainians may be able to change your government—against Russian wishes—but you can’t change your geography.

“Location, location, location” doesn’t just apply to real estate, it matters in geopolitics, too.

Russia is also flexing its muscles at the Europeans and the United States. Moscow is cautioning the “West” that the “East” won’t brook any foolish attempts to bring Ukraine into a European or American sphere of influence.

Remember that the ongoing crisis was precipitated last November when Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovich scuttled a trade pact with the European Union in exchange for a competing economic package from Russia, leading to months of street protests.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also wants to make it crystal clear that Russia considers any thought of trying to bring Ukraine into NATO a complete non-starter. Indeed, it’s a move Moscow might even go to war over.

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: obama; putin; russia; ukraine; viktoryanukovich; yuliatymoshenko
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1 posted on 03/01/2014 1:01:41 PM PST by Jim Robinson
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To: Jim Robinson

weakness will always invite aggression


2 posted on 03/01/2014 1:05:25 PM PST by kingattax (America needs more real Americans.)
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To: kingattax

I figure it this way; if Russian tanks stop at the east bank of the Dnieper River, fine. After all, that part of Ukraine is heavily Russian.

If the tanks are in Lviv (right on the Polish/Ukrainian border), there could be a big problem. Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania - all of whom share a border with Ukraine - are all NATO member states.

Poland is getting nervous right now. And Lithuania and Latvia are set to invoke Article IV of the NATO Treaty, and I suspect Poland is going to add to that chorus real soon.


3 posted on 03/01/2014 1:10:01 PM PST by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: Jim Robinson

During the Olympics, I wrote that after the concluding ceremonies, Russia would move into Ukraine.

Putin, in my view is trying to reestablish the former Soviet Union.

Given the effeminate, metrosexual POTUS we have, Putin knows he can get away with anything. He is now working toward establishing military bases in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.

No one ever acted against Reagan, once they took his measure.


4 posted on 03/01/2014 1:12:11 PM PST by aMorePerfectUnion
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To: Jim Robinson

One thing we can all be certain of, whatever the outcome in the Ukraine, the current occupant in the White House will act or fail to act in order to inflict the maximum harm to American interests.


5 posted on 03/01/2014 1:13:15 PM PST by AEMILIUS PAULUS (It is a shame that when these people give a riot)
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To: Jim Robinson
Jim,

To understand what is going on here one must know that it wasn't a trade pact, but an Accession Ageement. It contained a lot more than trade; energy policy, security and military cooperation between the EU and Ukraine etc.

See here and here.

From Russia's point of view a trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU would have been bad enough but this was just much worse. I do not imply that what Putin has done (is doing) is correct, but given the scope of the agreement one would have expected the EU foreign ministers, Obama and Kerry to have understood how important this would be for the Russians and acted accordingly.

Sorry, the latter was a bad joke.

SB

6 posted on 03/01/2014 1:14:44 PM PST by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

I believe this is about saving face, Russia can’t allow Ukraine to leave without something in return, especially, The Crimea, that if not for Khrushchev trying to make nice with the Ukrainian subjects he ruled over at Stalin’s behest, would not have even belonged to it in the first place.

Best case scenario a new deal will be worked out allowing Ukraine to join EU/NATO in exchange for ceding The Crimea back to Russia.

Now if they can’t make that deal, we’ve got problems.


7 posted on 03/01/2014 1:15:35 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: Jim Robinson

8 posted on 03/01/2014 1:15:48 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

bottom line -— obozo is a little twinkie and putin knows it


9 posted on 03/01/2014 1:16:47 PM PST by kingattax (America needs more real Americans.)
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To: Jim Robinson
In dangerous times we end up with a lawless Marxist as President...God help us.

In this corner we have Barack "Yapping Fool" Obama, and in this corner, the challenger, Vladimir "The Tiger" Putin.

10 posted on 03/01/2014 1:17:06 PM PST by Bobalu (Happiness is a fast ISR)
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To: Jim Robinson

You can bet other nations in the region have also taken Obama’s measure.


11 posted on 03/01/2014 1:17:12 PM PST by umgud (2A can't survive dem majorities)
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To: Jim Robinson

Weakest President in my life time, and I’m older than dirt.


12 posted on 03/01/2014 1:17:44 PM PST by donozark (The voices inside my head may not be real, but they have some good ideas!)
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To: Jim Robinson; AEMILIUS PAULUS

13 posted on 03/01/2014 1:18:54 PM PST by South40 (Liberalism is a Disease)
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To: dfwgator

I could see that; Russia gets the Crimean Peninsula, yeah....Ukraine gets a little butthurt, but as a consolation prize, they get to join up with the EU and NATO.

Crimea is Russia’s #1 concern; I doubt they care all that much about the rest of Ukraine, beyond lip service. But Crimea is do-or-die for Russia.

And like you said, if that deal can’t be made, then look out. That’s when TSHTF.


14 posted on 03/01/2014 1:18:59 PM PST by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

I don’t know why they care who the Ukraine cozies up to. How does it harm them? How does it affect Russian interests? It’s not like the Ukrainians pose a military threat to the Russians or for that matter any threat of any kind. I guess I just don’t think like an imperialist.


15 posted on 03/01/2014 1:19:39 PM PST by huckfillary
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To: dfwgator

Remember what happened in Egypt. If Putin can keep up the pressure without allowing the situation to become a hot conflict he can just wait for the EU and IMF to very soon dismantle what is left of the Ukrainian economy. (They have done such a great job with Greece, Spain, Hungary etc etc.) Eventually there will be a new upheaval and that will be that.....


16 posted on 03/01/2014 1:20:38 PM PST by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion
Could it be that Obama "inspired" the protestors in the Ukraine to go overboard during the Olympics, because Putin would not use troops during that time? So, of course Putin was going to have to act swiftly after the closing ceremonies.

Are there any doubts at all that the US inspired these protests to escalate to a violent overthrow of a government?

17 posted on 03/01/2014 1:21:17 PM PST by grania
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To: dfwgator

If the Ukrainians are foolish enough to give their sovereignty away to the EU that’s their business. I don’t want Ukraine joining NATO. That’s writing a check we can’t afford to cash.


18 posted on 03/01/2014 1:21:56 PM PST by Hugin
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

And the fact is, this should have been nipped in the bud back around 92-93.

Yes I know they signed an agreement, but anyone with half a brain would know Russia would never give up on trying to get back The Crimea. Yeltsin was just too drunk to care.


19 posted on 03/01/2014 1:21:57 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: Hugin

I hear you, but the point was to give Ukraine the freedom to make that choice, or not.


20 posted on 03/01/2014 1:23:33 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: huckfillary

It’s all about the Crimean Peninsula, home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

And from there, to the Mediterranean and then the Atlantic.

If they lost Sevastopol, they lose a lot. The Russian Navy’s access to the Med, the Middle East and beyond into the Atlantic is crippled.

The Russians are working on a new base in Russia proper, but it’s not ready to go yet; it’s probably another couple of years or so.


21 posted on 03/01/2014 1:24:16 PM PST by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

Britain and France did nothing when the aggressor of the 30’s annexed Austria as they were German speaking people anyway.

Hitler re-entered the Rhineland. ironically, after hosting the Winter Olympic Games.

Then Czechoslovakia. The weak-kneed western world did very little, but they did draw a RED LINE at Poland.

Then the Nazi’s rolled over Poland.

The rest is history. The little military genius and community organizer lost, of course, but it was bloody hell.


22 posted on 03/01/2014 1:24:39 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!!)
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To: donozark

I was born in ‘49...weakest prez in my lifetime...BINGO!


23 posted on 03/01/2014 1:25:02 PM PST by prisoner6 (FREEDOM)
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To: dfwgator

And the fact is, this should have been nipped in the bud back around 92-93.

Yes I know they signed an agreement, but anyone with half a brain would know Russia would never give up on trying to get back The Crimea. Yeltsin was just too drunk to care.
___________________________

Exactly; it should have been dealt with twenty years ago. Yeltsin.....probably thinking “Where is vodka?” while signing the damned thing.


24 posted on 03/01/2014 1:25:41 PM PST by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: AEMILIUS PAULUS

And the RATS will support him in that.


25 posted on 03/01/2014 1:26:22 PM PST by 353FMG
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To: Jim Robinson

There is nothing we can do. Obama is in the Whitey Hut. Liberals and left wing anti military nuts control the government. Lets just hope that China doesn’t get involved. Taiwan would be the first to go then Japan while we stand by worrying about income inequality.


26 posted on 03/01/2014 1:26:37 PM PST by Dallas59 (Obama: The first "White Black" President.)
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To: Hugin

I just think the whole mess is a handy distraction from our own problems. If we want to worry about Russia we should worry a lot more about moves they’re making in central and south America.


27 posted on 03/01/2014 1:27:28 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

What I don’t get is the story that Russia wants Crimea for Black Sea ports. Doesn’t Russia have other ports on the Black Sea?


28 posted on 03/01/2014 1:27:56 PM PST by prisoner6 (FREEDOM)
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To: Jim Robinson

Oh, yeah. And then Stalin made a pact with Hitler to divvy up Poland should war begin. But of course, the big talking fascist community organizer of the day already had plans to stab Stalin in the back.


29 posted on 03/01/2014 1:28:58 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!!)
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To: huckfillary

I think a boatload of gas pipelines traverse Ukraine on the way to Europe.


30 posted on 03/01/2014 1:29:00 PM PST by bubbacluck (America 180)
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To: Jim Robinson

All very true, and now we’re seeing how Putin operates.

He stirs up trouble in a nation or an area he covets, claims “Oh, ethnic Russians are practically being lynched in the streets! We must do something!” and them - BOOM - in roll the tanks.

I’ve seen this movie before. That the Western world seems so oblivious to it is frightening.

Not so much in my little part of the world, fortunately; the Czechs are all too familiar with this ruthless game Putin is playing because they’ve been the victim of it themselves. Even young Czechs, whom I teach - 18 to 20 year olds - know enough of history to say “Putin is playing right out of Hitler’s playbook” so at least there’s some people still left that understand the possible ramifications.

Of course, these same students will point out that Hitler didn’t have a nuclear arsenal to back him up, so it kind of changes things. But at least they recognize what they’re seeing.


31 posted on 03/01/2014 1:31:13 PM PST by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: prisoner6

The Russians are currently building a new one, but it’s not ready.

Had this crisis happened, let’s say, 10 years in the future, in 2024, it might not have been such a huge issue.


32 posted on 03/01/2014 1:32:22 PM PST by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: huckfillary
This may help you understand Russia's interests (aside from history and geography of course)
 photo b7e1e17d-4a42-47ad-b9cb-2142b7f80c73_zpscf345d6c.png
33 posted on 03/01/2014 1:34:01 PM PST by silverleaf (Age takes a toll: Please have exact change)
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To: dfwgator
Joining the EU should be their choice. Letting them join NATO is our choice.
34 posted on 03/01/2014 1:35:17 PM PST by Hugin
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To: dfwgator
Best case scenario a new deal will be worked out allowing Ukraine to join EU/NATO in exchange for ceding The Crimea back to Russia.

Why would Putin ever agree to that? The deal offers him nothing, as he already has the Crimea. And I don't think Putin will ever allow what's left of the Ukraine to join NATO. No more than we would have allowed Mexico to join the Warsaw Pact.

35 posted on 03/01/2014 1:39:10 PM PST by Leaning Right (Why am I holding this lantern? I am looking for the next Reagan.)
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To: Leaning Right
The deal offers him nothing, as he already has the Crimea.

But he probably would have economic sanctions placed on Russia as a result, a negotiated solution would remove those sanctions.

36 posted on 03/01/2014 1:41:38 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

“If they lost Sevastopol, they lose a lot. The Russian Navy’s access to the Med, the Middle East and beyond into the Atlantic is crippled.”

The Russians are not going to lose Sevastopol any more than we are going give up Gitmo. Sevastopol is more important to the Russians than Gitmo is too us.

So the Sevastopol area will go to Russia.

Putin will probably alow the Ukraine to be swalled up in the EU. $oreA$$ and his fellow looters and rapists of countries will financially ruin the Ukraine like the current poor countries of the EU in about 5 years.

Then the survivors in the Ukraine will beg Russia to take over.


37 posted on 03/01/2014 1:41:53 PM PST by Grampa Dave ( Obozo Care is a Trinity of Lies! Obozo Care is probably a serious Black Swan event.)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

Wouldn’t it be more advantageous, cheaper and politically, to just speed up the new Black Sea port?

Intimidation to others?


38 posted on 03/01/2014 1:44:40 PM PST by prisoner6 (FREEDOM)
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To: prisoner6

I still think Russia has designs on a base in Cyprus.


39 posted on 03/01/2014 1:45:51 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: Grampa Dave

Heh. Ukraine under IMF policies and whatnot becomes Greece II.

They’re already pretty much bust as it is.

I think Crimea will go to the Russians; it’s pretty much a fait accompli as this point now. The Ukrainians will be cheesed, to be sure, but that’s about it.


40 posted on 03/01/2014 1:47:27 PM PST by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

Well they got Lwow from Poland, so they shouldn’t complain. Russians giveth, Russians taketh away.


41 posted on 03/01/2014 1:48:41 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

Thanks JimRob.


42 posted on 03/01/2014 1:48:46 PM PST by SunkenCiv (http://www.freerepublic.com/~mestamachine/)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

The problem is that Ukraine has significant assets (coal iron ore heavy industry) as well as an enormous agricultural segment. Too it is a buffer against land invasion a traditional worry for Russia. Putin wants it all back


43 posted on 03/01/2014 1:50:09 PM PST by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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To: prisoner6

Intimidation has its own value, mostly domestically for Putin. He gets to look like a total badass and create the illusion that Russia is a superpower again.

But if you look beneath the surface, a good deal of it is all hat, no cattle. Their economy, aside from being a straight-up kleptocracy more akin to a vast Mafia protection racket than a free-market system, is extremely dependent on energy and resource exports. It’s a major vulnerability, economically speaking.


44 posted on 03/01/2014 1:51:22 PM PST by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

Have no idea what Putin’s designs are, but if he has in mind establishing Russia as the dominate superpower this could be his opportunity. The western world will do nothing if he annexes all of the Ukraine. Doubt he’ll make any sudden military moves after that, but who knows? He may not have to. He can simply wait until the idiot Obama finishes bankrupting America and destroying our defenses. If America goes under, it’ll create a helluva problem for China (which also has dreams of becoming the dominate superpower) and big problems for the entire world for that matter. We owe so much money to China that if we default, they could be toast. Not only that, but we’re their major customer. And socialist Europe is about to collapse anyway. I think we could be in for a bit of a problem here.


45 posted on 03/01/2014 1:54:05 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!!)
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*


46 posted on 03/01/2014 2:02:05 PM PST by nuconvert ( Khomeini promised change too // Hail, Chairman O)
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To: Dallas59

Yep. The “war on women” will become a war on all of us.


47 posted on 03/01/2014 2:05:51 PM PST by VerySadAmerican (".....Barrack, and the horse Mohammed rode in on.")
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To: Jim Robinson
A Czech friend of mine gave me an interesting analogy in regard to Putin. Stalin's biggest mistake was in trusting Hitler; Stalin assumed that Der Führer was a rational actor on the world stage. In fairness, up to the point that Operation Barbarossa began, Hitler did look like a rational actor, and a rather victorious one to boot, having conquered continental Europe. But in hindsight, we now know that Hitler was not a rational actor; he was a lunatic and a military adventurer/conqueror who had a brilliant run of the good fortunes of war. Of course, that run ran out. Here's the nub of her argument. What if we're making the same mistake regarding Putin? What if, despite appearances, Putin is not the rational actor we all assume him to be? What if he rolls into Ukraine, and then says, "Hey....Poland's right over there. What the hell?! Keep them tanks rolling, boys!" Right into NATO territory. That's the concern here in this part of Europe, and I can't say I entirely disagree with it. After all, these good people know first hand the consequences of assuming that the tyrant next door is going to be satisfied with his bowl of borscht, and then he starts eyeing your plate of pork chops, sauerkraut and potatoes.
48 posted on 03/01/2014 2:06:45 PM PST by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad
All very true, and now we’re seeing how Putin operates. He stirs up trouble in a nation or an area he covets, claims “Oh, ethnic Russians are practically being lynched in the streets! We must do something!” and them - BOOM - in roll the tanks. I’ve seen this movie before. That the Western world seems so oblivious to it is frightening.

How PUTIN operates? How is this any different than what Obama and the RATs are doing here in the U.S. with the blacks and the queers and the mexicans? "Oblivious"? More likely it's being studied in detail with an eye toward tweaking their operations in the U.S. (I'm honestly having difficulty deciding whether to put a sarc tag on this or not.)

49 posted on 03/01/2014 2:18:35 PM PST by NurdlyPeon (It is the nature of liberals to pervert whatever they touch.)
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To: Jim Robinson

Ukrainians have no love for Russkies. I can’t imagine any Russian soldier wanting to die fighting Ukrainians but I can imagine a Ukrainian soldier wanting to kill a Russian soldier in defense of Ukraine.


50 posted on 03/01/2014 2:24:12 PM PST by jmacusa ("Chasing God out of the classroom didn't usher in The Age of Reason''.)
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