I could see that; Russia gets the Crimean Peninsula, yeah....Ukraine gets a little butthurt, but as a consolation prize, they get to join up with the EU and NATO.
Crimea is Russia’s #1 concern; I doubt they care all that much about the rest of Ukraine, beyond lip service. But Crimea is do-or-die for Russia.
And like you said, if that deal can’t be made, then look out. That’s when TSHTF.
And the fact is, this should have been nipped in the bud back around 92-93.
Yes I know they signed an agreement, but anyone with half a brain would know Russia would never give up on trying to get back The Crimea. Yeltsin was just too drunk to care.
What I don’t get is the story that Russia wants Crimea for Black Sea ports. Doesn’t Russia have other ports on the Black Sea?
The problem is that Ukraine has significant assets (coal iron ore heavy industry) as well as an enormous agricultural segment. Too it is a buffer against land invasion a traditional worry for Russia. Putin wants it all back
To control the Dnieper is to control water traffic from the Black Sea to the Baltic.