The Bandera Nazis will get Lviv.
Odessa wants to be independent of both Ukraine and Russia and want nothing to do with the Bandera Nazis and want them to leave.
Kherson, Nikolaev want to remain Ukraine and not be part of Russia, but also want nothing to do with the Bandera Nazis.
Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk, and Kharkiv will leave Ukraine with Putins help and affiliate in some form with Russia.
Who knows what will happen to Kiev.
You have described the breakup of Yugoslavia.
Odessa, Kherson, and Nikolaev will have to join forces; the era of city-states is long gone. This, however, will cut the Western Ukraine off from Black Sea, and that would be a serious problem... and that's where most of the violence is likely to occur. Eastern Ukraine and Crimea will be surrendered to Russia without much fight because the population there actively wants to join Russia.
Interesting. The Dneiper river runs to the Black Sea also.
That ring of "Russians" on the Black Sea coast reaches all the way to Moldova and parts of Romania. There are already a couple of thousand Russian troops in Transnistria (it's like every other city block over there is a different country).
Odessa has been "Russian" since there was an Odessa.
The nationalists in Kiev and Lviv will get to keep a landlocked country with no agriculture, no industry, no order and no prospects.
They get to keep the part the Russians don't want.
the last time these places were in the news was during 1943-44
as the Germans retreated.