Skip to comments.Crimea dispatch: 'There will be no war. We're not going to point our weapons'
Posted on 03/02/2014 12:27:48 PM PST by Rusty0604
Crimea is the frontline of this silent war, writes Roland Oliphant. But in Moscow, the propaganda battle is being played out at full volume
The Russian occupation of central Simferopol and the local airport terminal two days ago was as much for the benefit of the world's media as anything else.
Claims of mass defections in the Russian press, including that of the Ukrainian fleet's flagship, the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny, were impossible to confirm on Sunday evening. Ministers in Ukraine have denied the claims.
Russia's state owned media has broadcast several questionable reports about that Ukraine crisis since it began.
In possibly the most outrageous stretching of the truth so far Vesti, a Russian rolling news channel, on Sunday used old footage from protests in Kiev to claim fighting had broken out between police and revolutionary militants in Crimea.
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
Since the Crimea is almost entirely Russophone and in fact was under Russia for most of the last 200 years, I don’t think there will be any fighting. Not there at least.
The rest of Ukraine is a different matter. I’d suspect there’s going to be a partition in its future.
They should have done that back in 93.
70% of the population speak Russian and nearly 60% are ethnic Russian so Moscow’s peaceful takeover of the peninsula was pretty much a foregone conclusion. I don’t see Russian troops being welcomed with flowers and salted bread in Kiev, however.
Russia was in economic doldrums following the Soviet collapse and was a pitiful giant that seemed in danger of breaking up. Russia was forced to make peace on the only terms on offer at the time.
Twenty years later, Moscow scents its moment, treaties and international guarantees be damned. Crimea was simply too good a moving target to relinquish forever.
It was Russia's "Treaty of Versailles"....and we all know what the original led to.
A frigate as a flag ship? Pooty Poot laughs.
dont see Russian troops being welcomed with flowers and salted bread in Kiev, however.
Correct. And that is where the pedal will meet metal. Methinks Putin will take what he can get without bloodshed. Although, bloodshed really doesn't matter to Vlad.
It was given to the Ukraine by Russia about 60 years ago but at the time Ukraine was part of USSR so it didn’t matter.
You talk as if the U.S.A. guaranteed the integrity of Ukraine's territorial boundaries. Oh, they did by agreement in 1994 in exchange for removing 3000 nukes? Um, never mind.
Was it ever ratified by the Senate?
Unverified report: ( most likely false)
As we have just unofficial sources in the Naval Forces of Ukraine, to the shores of Sevastopol at full speed are two ships the Navy United States.
According to preliminary information, two destroyers carrier battle groups have already passed the Bosphorus.
No but the Budapest Memorandum certainly has at least as much credibility in law as any guarantee of Kuwait's territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Crimea was most turk and German until the Soviets starved and deported the true locals.
Soviets relocated thousands of Russians into eastern Ukraine and Crimea after murdering the locals.They are not true locals.They are considered invaders .
No. I’m not one for U.S. intervention, especially with the Obummer in the White House. But other allies are probably looking with great interest at our inaction, in regards to our promises to help defend our friends. Japan is wondering just what would we do if China intervened on Japanese territory. Probably thinking it’s time to count on themselves and go it alone. Just one example.
Yes, I agree. If we had a rational president, this could all be resolved with a meeting between the three parties that signed the Memorandum...the US, the UK and Russia.
But Obama has seriously p’d off the UK, Russia realizes Obama’s out of his very shallow depth, and there’s really nothing we can do. Or maybe nothing we should do.
This is something that could take a diplomatic solution. It’s not even entirely clear to me that even Kiev was 100% behind the nationalists...many of them simply appear not to have liked the Russian-supported president they had in charge and getting him out was their main goal.
Why did the Ukraine give up the third largest nuclear weapons power for a peace treaty with Russian monsters in there backyard.
How naive .
“Blood is a big expense.”
Remember who was in charge of the US back then.
Dayton Accords, anyone?
Why did the Ukraine give up there massive nuclear weapons which was the third largest in the world for a unsigned treaty !
That makes no sense.
How much pressure did the Clinton Administration put on them to sign the deal?
Beyond weird .
Its was really stupid to give up all your cards with the KGB still operating in the open.
its so sad.
The Russians murdered 5 to 7 million Ukrainians on purpose and then shipped in Russians into their land and they gave up these weapons !
Probably half the military is Russian.
The other thing is this: I remember during the invasion of Iraq that one important thing we did was to have relatives of various Iraqi generals contact them and make offers of cash (a million or two each as I recall) and green cards and residency in the US for them and their whole family if they would defect or at least stand down during the invasion. Lower ranking officers received similar offers of less money and residency in other Gulf states. Don't know how many took the offer.
The other thing was making it public that we were doing it, so that the Iraqis would suspect one another of taking the offer.
So I can't help but wonder if in Ukraine these kinds of offers are made under the table, or if this kind of thing is spread just so the Ukrainian officer corps would not know who they can trust. Cheaper to pass bags of money under the table than to have to fight. And in this case they are cousins and formerly citizens of the same country.
Actually, Crimea has been under Russia -rightly or wrongly - since 1774. The Turks controlled it for about 200 years before that, even though most of its population were ethnic Europeans and mostly Orthodox Christians. Even after the Russians got control, the Tatars, who were Muslims allied with the Ottoman Empire, continued to raid it for slaves.
In the final slave raid of 1796, the Tatars took some 20,000 European slaves for sale on the ME slave markets. Nonetheless, the current Crimean government has guaranteed that the existing Tatar minority in Crimea will be given rights like all other citizens.
So the Crimea has a much more complicated history than we appreciate, and we shouldn’t be too hasty to support the Ukrainians (who have a very limited goal in the Western Ukraine, but because by an historical accident, these other places belonged to them, are setting off a conflagration).
Your guess is as good as mine for why they gave up their nukes. Probably the money, financial help and such. Looking back, seems short-sighted but screaming hungry masses were thinking they couldn’t eat nukes to feed themselves. Just guessing.
Actually, Crimea’s Russian population lived in the Crimea since the 18th Century when Catherine overthrew the Crimean Tatar Khanate and made it part of Russia, not the Ukraine. Furthermore, Eastern Ukraine is still mostly ethnic Ukrainian in population, albet Russified.
If you’re talking about the famine, modern estimates give the likely number of famine and related deaths to be about 3-3.5 million, more specifically about 3.2 million.
Its was German and Ukrainian too until the Soviets deported them hundreds of thousands of people.
try 5 to 7 million was the last count .
The Russians were keeping great records.
agreed its a huge crossroads for a thousand years .
My Aunt was Ukrainian and fled with her father as a child.
She was furious over the 1994 treaty .
She got a chance to see her childhood home in the Crimea before she died.
Her stories were hair raising.
Some reports say that Ukraine hasn’t had money to pay their soldiers, so probably just getting paid would be motive enough for some of them.
I read one report that supposedly Khrushchev was drunk when he decided to give Crimea to Ukraine.
Crimea was given to the Ukraine by Russia in 1954. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Crimea and Ukraine have had several “issues”.
Must have been interesting to hear her stories.
Just the famine or including gulags and all the rest?
Also, does that include all of the Ukraine? Or minus the Western regions?
All the Russian soldiers in Crimea appear to be men.
Not a female bearing arms among them
How can they possibly hope to win a war?
She was half Greek and the Russians considered them enemies of the state so they went on a visit to Odessa and ended up in Turkey before WW 11.
Good thing they left, the Russians exterminated or deported entire villages of Greeks and Turks soon after.
The Russians wanted their land.
She went back in late 1998 and all these former Greek and Turk villages were all Russian now.
read for yourself
this estimated was 7 million but there are accounts of 10 million.
I have no idea if this includes The germans, Greeks, Turks, Polish who all other non Russian ethnicities deemed unworthy and were wiped out and replaced with Russians transplants.
And Putin continues to terrorize the region.
4o% of the population is either Ukrainian or Tatar. It would have been more like 90% if Stalin hadn’t ethnically cleansed the Tartars. Those Russians have only been there since the 1940’s. And Russia signed a treaty with Ukraine guaranteeing its borders. ukraine lived up to its end of the bargain by giving up its nuclear arsenal, and giving Russia the use of Sevastopol. The only real argument here is “ might makes right”. Seems lots of Putin a## kissers are okay with that.
In the immortal words of Otter in Animal House:
“You f##ked up! you trusted us.”
They trusted us, the Brits and most stupidly of all, the Russians.
Actually, the Russians have been there since the late 18th Century when Catherine overthrew the Crimean Tatar Khanate and made it part of Russia.
>this estimated was 7 million
I have heard it stated that it was the total death toll across the USSR. Bear in mind the Ukraine wasn’t the only area suffering from famine. Southern Russia was just as hard hit, and other areas such as Kazakhstan and even the Volga region were affected.
One modern calculation for famine deaths in the Ukraine that uses demographic data, including those recently available from Soviet archives, narrows the losses to about 3.2 million or, allowing for the lack of precise data, 3 million to 3.5 million.
They were a minority. The vast majority of residents were the Tartars, Ukrainians, Greeks, Germans,Turks and Armenians. When Stalin Ethnically cleansed the Crimea an estimated 45 % of the Tartars died in the process.