ROSENBERG: 'The Chances Of A Recession In The Next Year Or Two Are Close To Zero'

Advisor Perspectives ^ | 3-4-2014 | Robert Huebscher

[blam]

ROSENBERG: 'The Chances Of A Recession In The Next Year Or Two Are Close To Zero'

Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives
Mar. 4, 2014, 10:50 AM

Following a lackluster recovery that began in June 2009, many fear the U.S. is due for another recession, given that the average post-war economic expansion lasted five years. But we’re only in the “fourth or fifth inning of the business cycle,” according to David Rosenberg, who predicts growth in consumer and capital spending – and positive returns for U.S. equities.

“It takes a lot to shock the U.S. economy into a recession,” Rosenberg said. None of the factors that historically triggered a recession – such as a tightening move by the Federal Reserve – are likely over the next two years, according to Rosenberg.

(snip)

[maddog55]

I agree that chances of a recession in the next year or two are close to zero and that’s because we’re still in one. Wonder what his prediction for a depression are.

[Beagle8U]

So? Even after the crash of 29 the market gained it all back pretty quick.

If the market crashed again like it did in 29 paper dollars would be worthless too. Gold is impractical to use in barter, the markets are a safer bet today.

[familyop]

"Rosenberg is the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, a Toronto-based wealth management firm."

Kinda rough for a man, when lack of consumer spending--even on certain kinds of investments--begins to cut into his own revenues.

[TigersEye]

2014 - Summer of Recovery 5.0

[Cen-Tejas]

....,,,any professional that can say anything positive about the US Govt abused qnd intentionally mis-reported economy right now has to be a socialist/Marxist/ communist/liar earnestly spewing out more lies to support all of Obama’s lies or he is lying based on orders from whoever is signing his paycheck.

[South Dakota]

I guess you forgot that the dhimmicrats did everything they could to spoil the Hoover recovery plan

[FourtySeven]

Do you know what I heard our deficit is?

One MILLION dollars!

[x]

I think this is the same guy, who a couple years ago, told us that we'd have crashed & burned by now.

He was the guy who said:

In 2005, when the housing market was booming, he was one of the first to say the bubble would burst. In 2006, when consumer prices were rising, he told investors to expect disinflation. In 2007, when the U.S. economy was still growing, he warned that a nasty recession was on the way.

He was right about that stuff, though maybe in the sense that a stopped clock is right twice a day: predict that what goes up must come down sooner or later, and you'll be right so long as you don't give an actual date.

The story is cherry-picking or spin, though. Maybe there won't be a recession in the near future because the inflation that he predicted last month is going to take off. Could be Rosenberg is erratic and a little crazy, or it could be that the papers just report when he says what they want to hear.

I don't know what to make of Rosenberg and his predictions, but just because he makes a certain prediction at a certain time doesn't make him an enemy of the people. If he simply told people what they wanted to hear because of ideology, he'd be worthless as an economic forecaster.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Did he also predict that the Russians would never invade the Ukraine?

[CodeToad]

The point wasn’t about markets. The point was that the people suffered regardless of the market.