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Crimea: Russia’s Next Afghanistan?
New York Times Guest Op-Ed Contibutor ^ | MARCH 3, 2014 | By OLGA DUKHNICH

Posted on 03/04/2014 9:52:56 PM PST by Veristhorne

SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine — Since Saturday, the headquarters of the government of Crimea — an autonomous region of Ukraine — have been occupied by special forces whose uniforms are unmarked but whose identity is a mystery to no one here. ... The dominant mood here in Crimea – even among local Russian-speaking intellectuals who have been vocal in defense of their linguistic rights and cultural identity – is not joy, but fear.

The majority of Crimean Russians did not want to see Russian tanks and troops in the streets. They understand that if the occupation continues, it may undermine their livelihood. Crimea is a tourist destination; the incomes and well-being of many of its inhabitants depend on revenues from the peak travel season, when vacationers come to the Black Sea for relaxation. They cannot live on rations from the Russian military. And they know that Crimea could not be economically sustained without the rest of Ukraine, which supplies the region with electricity and water. {more at link above}

...

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: crimea; russia; ukraine
Hard to believe 300,000 returned Crimean Tartars would want to be absorbed back into Russia, Hmm 15000 Speznaz, 300,000 Crim Tatars, who would you bet on? If you give them ponies and arrows, I'll take the Tatars anyday. For the 50% of Russians that supposedly favor invading Ukraine; was that a CNN cafeteria or a Pravda poll? The dark Ukrainian soil is rich with the blood of anti-Communist freedom fighters from the Civil War in the 20's, the millions who died in the Holodomor terror-famine of the 30's, the tens of thousands that died fighting Communism in the 40's and in the gulags. It saddens me to hear the commentators talk about this orchestrated tragedy with terms like "pipeline," "warm water port," and "no US strategic interest."
1 posted on 03/04/2014 9:52:56 PM PST by Veristhorne
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To: Veristhorne

Not gonna happen


2 posted on 03/04/2014 9:54:35 PM PST by Husker24
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To: Veristhorne

The majority of the population in Crimea is clearly pro-Russian. That is why this takeover has been bloodless. There are no protests or violence directed against the Russian military in Crimea. If Putin overplayed his hand and moved into eastern Ukraine then there would be violence. Comparing Muslim Afghanistan to Russian speaking Crimea is unsophisticated nonsense.


3 posted on 03/04/2014 10:07:53 PM PST by allendale
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To: Veristhorne

Sorry, but I don’t think this is comparable. Crimea was part of Russia until the 50s, when they, for some reason, transferred it to the Ukraine. Right or not, it was probably going to revert back to Russia.


4 posted on 03/04/2014 10:08:57 PM PST by nickcarraway
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To: Veristhorne
There are many compelling reasons to allow the world situation to further develop along its present course as opposed to rushing in and trying to alter that course through open warfare. that's my opinion anyways.
5 posted on 03/04/2014 10:19:37 PM PST by RC one (Militarized law enforcement is just a nice way of saying martial law enforcement.)
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To: allendale

The reason it’s bloodless is because of good discipline by the Ukrainian army, got nothing to do with civilians. Putin would love to have them fire the “first shot.” Ukrainians outsmarted him, and if they play it right, could be big PR disaster if Crimeans continue fleeing, for economic, political, or security reasons, leaving a lot of Muslim Tatars and a few ethnic Russians in the Southeast corner.
Putin gets nothing he didn’t have before, and looks like a turd at the opera in world opinion. His personal wealth took a $5 billion hit on Monday (12% of $40 billion) I think that’s why he calmed down a little.


6 posted on 03/04/2014 10:31:30 PM PST by Veristhorne (Just the Facts M'am, just the Facts)
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To: RC one

Right on. The peaceful intent of the Ukranians is well- demonstrated in the language of the 1994 Budaest accord, filed at the UN and signed by Clinton, where she voluntarily gave up her nuclear weapons, in return for promises for US, GB, and Russia to respect her sovereignty. (There is no binding treaty, and we have no obligation to get involved militarily) Military involvement by us would be foolish,just ask Winston & Rudyard how that worked out. The Black Sea Fleet is a silly prestige item, neutered by the Dardanelles, Suez, Gibralter, only good for local bullying. Let the goose cook. Thanks for the comment.


7 posted on 03/04/2014 10:49:51 PM PST by Veristhorne (Just the Facts M'am, just the Facts)
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To: nickcarraway

You have a point there, and I am uneasy about the probable affiliations of any radical militants among the Crimean Tatars. They would link up very fast with Saudi Arabia and the other al-Qaida backers.

Afghanistan used to be a Russian problem, but now is an American problem. Who wants the same recipe in Crimea?


8 posted on 03/04/2014 10:52:18 PM PST by BlackVeil ('The past is never dead. It's not even past.' William Faulkner)
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To: Veristhorne

Geography, culture, and history matter. The NYT is clueless - as usual.


9 posted on 03/05/2014 2:14:44 AM PST by Pollster1 ("Shall not be infringed" is unambiguous.)
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To: Veristhorne

I agree with your analysis. Those unfamiliar with history are ignorant of the undercurrents which drive this situation. They post nonsense such as “Crimea was part of Russia until the 50s” without knowing the context, method or meaning of Russia’s presence in the area and what the “Russian Crimea” really is.

As you pointed out the Crimean people care most about the local tourism industry which they all put aside their differences to make a go of. If one ethnicity starts taking sides and supporting external interests and occupation then the whole thing unravels and everyone loses. Yes, I agree Putin will be blamed all around for “losing Crimea” in one fashion or another.


10 posted on 03/05/2014 2:54:30 AM PST by Justa
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To: Justa
Russia has a lot of natural gas pipelines crossing Ukraine. A good chunk of their economy and influence over Europe depends on the pipelines. The people tossed out of office the Putin backed leader. That leader did have support if we can believe the election totals from the 2004 and 2010 elections. An obviously divided nation even if there were election shenanigans. The 2010 elections seemed to show the same divide, this one shows percentages and is a little more useful.


11 posted on 03/05/2014 3:18:05 AM PST by listenhillary (Courts, law enforcement, roads and national defense should be the extent of government)
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To: Veristhorne

Wishful thinking. The Crimean Tatars will do exactly what they are told by the Rooskis, like they have always done ever since Catherine the Great conquered them in 1774.


12 posted on 03/05/2014 3:48:18 AM PST by Timber Rattler (Just say NO! to RINOS and the GOP-E)
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To: Veristhorne

You may be right. The pro-Russian soldiers in Crimea are starting to look twitchy. The autonomy referendum set for March 30 will be very important.

Another tragedy is the importing of Western anti-Christian culture into every state that affiliates with the EU. Ukrainian membership in the EU is another form of annexation.


13 posted on 03/05/2014 4:57:13 AM PST by cmj328 (We live here.)
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To: Veristhorne

That piece is a joke written by a fool with access to too much ink


14 posted on 03/05/2014 5:00:56 AM PST by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... History is a process, not an event)
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To: Veristhorne

Wishful thinking from the Volkischer Beobacter.


15 posted on 03/05/2014 5:03:56 AM PST by 98ZJ USMC
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To: Veristhorne

16 posted on 03/05/2014 5:06:24 AM PST by McGruff (Every night has it's dawn.)
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To: allendale

Unbelievable some of the garbage that is appearing in the media.

Crimea voted by over 70% for full independence from Ukraine a while back, and Kiev rejected it. Hence, it became an autonomous republic within Ukraine.


17 posted on 03/05/2014 5:11:16 AM PST by LowTaxesEqualsProsperity
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To: 98ZJ USMC

Don’t know if this is true:
http://rt.com/news/ashton-maidan-snipers-estonia-946/

But if it is, the Kiev regime will collapse.


18 posted on 03/05/2014 5:16:02 AM PST by LowTaxesEqualsProsperity
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To: Veristhorne

Crimea is so long under Russia — since the 1700’s at least — that they aren’t going to be remotely close to what Afghan was to the USSR.


19 posted on 03/05/2014 5:16:19 AM PST by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: Veristhorne
Oh, come on. To the "eternal working man" of the Crimea, hoards of them displaced there originally by Stalin eighty years ago, their children forced into Soviet schooling, are likely less inclined toward Kiev than they are Moscow. Most are skeptical their lives would change one way or another.

This is all about Putin not wanting E.U. bureaucrats controlling the ground, its pipelines and the airspace between the Kremlin and Sevastopol.

20 posted on 03/05/2014 5:37:22 AM PST by Prospero (Si Deus trucido mihi, ego etiam fides Deus.)
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To: LowTaxesEqualsProsperity

That wouldn’t surprise me. This was such an obvious pawn grabbing move by some of the same people who brought us Libya and Egypt. NWO putsch.


21 posted on 03/05/2014 5:43:18 AM PST by Psalm 144 (1. Sow. 2. Reap. 3. Eat the result.)
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To: nickcarraway

They did it as a meaningless gesture.


22 posted on 03/05/2014 6:08:51 AM PST by demshateGod (The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.)
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To: Veristhorne

Yeh Putey is already racheting down the rhetoric. I think he’s starting to get that feeling when you wake up naked in a crowd of stangers. :-)


23 posted on 03/05/2014 11:08:22 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

Thanks for your comment GG2. I’m not sure it’s possible to put the Evil Empire back together again. The key to Stalin’s enormous success was Stalinist Terror, and the Gulag System - (slave labor and cannon fodder) Ignorance of the outside world helped to preserve the illusion of the Worker’s Paradise... which is why returning POW’s who had seen Europe’s affluence (Operation Keelhaul) were usually killed or sent straight to the gulags. FDR’s VP Wallace visited one in the 40’s and declared them wonderful cultural and athletic centers, we were so blissfully and pathetically ignorant. Now we know different. Internet has changed a lot of things.
Putin may be the dog that caught the car. If gas prices fall because of the fracking boom (Go Keystone Pipeline!), and Russians resist reimposition of the Gulag system, his imperialist dreams may not be shared by the bulk of the Russian people, if in fact they are now. There were a lot of discipline problems in the Czech invasion of ‘66, and some of the stiffest resistance the Russian army met in Budaest in fall of ‘54 was from defecting Russian soldiers that joined the Csepel factory workers when they realized what they were fighting for.
If Putin sends tank columns into Ukraine there’s going to be one heck of a refugee problem, and I can guarantee some Tianamin Square moments. Ukrainians are crazy passionate about their freedom; they should be in our thoughts and prayers.


24 posted on 03/06/2014 6:41:32 PM PST by Veristhorne (Just the Facts M'am, just the Facts)
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